The race has barely begun, but boy, are the voters ready for someone to fix their city.
The first poll of the 2007 Mayor's race is out. And the obvious theme is voter anger: At the violence in our city, at politicians, and at the "way things are going right now."
Of particular interest:
Not only is crime by far the issue most voters want to hear discussed in the race (with 70 percent of voters citing it as an issue candidates should talk about), it dwarfs the other issues, such as education (35%) and unemployment (15%). Voters could choose more than one answer.
Voters want candidates with experience in goverment or business, which is interesting given the general unhappiness with the city's direction.
And corruption is still on voters' minds. Almost all of them said they would be likely to support a candidate with a plan to reduce it. As Dan pointed out, it's hard to imagine anyone saying they wouldn't support a plan to reduce corruption. But it's interesting that that issue is at the top of the voters' list.
Let's discuss...
Comments (9)
It's great that the message is getting to the candidates about what's wrong in this city. It's great there's this dialogue about what needs to change, and that sites like this exist to facilitate that exchange. I hope we can successfully deliver the major message that violence needs to stop and public safety needs to greatly improve, but also that things like public transportation, the school system, and the environment all need serious attention from the next mayor. With forums like this available, I'm hopeful that that will be the case.
Posted by Joseph | August 3, 2006 10:42 AM
Extremely intelligent analysis, Liz. Particularly when you realize that you could choose more than one issue for the candidates to focus on. So why wouldn't you say crime and jobs, for example?
I'm going to see if the pollsters and analysts have anything to say about why the other issues didn't get more attention...and will report back.
Posted by Wendy | August 3, 2006 2:16 PM
Liz,
I blame the politicians more than the people for the low numbers associated with important issues like the ones you cited (housing, people leaving the city, the environment, public transit).
Ideally, campaigns shouldn't just be about winning elections and shredding one's opponents. Campaigns are a politician's opportunity to educate the public about what's important and convincing them why those issues are important. Yes, crime is important. Yes, it's probably the most important issue. But if we allow these candidates to get away with making this a one issue race, then we are cheating ourselves and those who will come after us. Real leadership doesn't just follow polls and move from one issue to whatever the next "highest rated" issue is. Real leadership means vision and trying to convince all of us (including the 422 people who responded to this poll) that we can make progress on all of those problems.
This website will continue to serve as a clearing house for any issue that anyone thinks should be talked about. People or groups can submit them to me (my email is with the post) or comment on them in the blog. We can then spotlight them on the front page of the site, get candidates responses to those issues and give them a permanent place to live until Election Day.
Again, I'm not denying that crime is probably the most important issue right now, but we need to make sure we get a mayor who can do more than just manage a crisis. We need one who can pick up the pieces after the crisis is over and build a better city.
Dan
Posted by Dan | August 3, 2006 3:15 PM
If you check out the poll, in full, you'll note that only about 250 people were polled. What a cross section? In a city of about a million, 250 people are sending everyone into a frenzy and electing Fattah mayor. God help us...
Posted by Bewildered | August 4, 2006 1:09 PM
Please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't a crime mostly likely to be caused by the uneducated and the unemployed?
Posted by D. King | August 4, 2006 8:21 PM
I think the total sample size was a little bigger, though when you are talking about the horse-race it's small. Here's what the methodology says...
The survey included 422 city residents, including a sub-sample of 370 registered voters: 264 Democrats, 62 Republicans, and 44 Independents and others.
Posted by wendy | August 6, 2006 4:36 PM
Yes but even that sampling is small. Since only democrats can vote in the democratic primary, the pool is really only 264 people. Also, Franklin & Marshall stated the results are subject to a margin of error of plus or minue 6 percent among those 264 people.
Not that I disagree that crime is a big issue - I definitely think it is. I just don't think this survey is the be all and end all of this election. I agree with King - the real issue is education. With a quality school system and good jobs, people are less likely to commit crimes.
Posted by Bewildered | August 7, 2006 10:34 AM
I agree that education should be a major issue but how much of an issue can it be for the mayor's race given the current governance structure of the schools?
Does it become an issue of whether the next candidate will support Paul Vallas or not? If so, all the candidates are already on the record on that (even Brady). (See this: http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/news/14936164.htm)
Or is the issue whether the mayor should be back in charge? If the answer to that question is no, then it doesn't really matter what any of the candidates say about what they would do to improve education.
I've been asking this question for a while now. (http://www.pnionline.com/dnblog/nextmayor/archives/003565.html) Maybe it's time to talk about it a little more.
Posted by Dan | August 8, 2006 10:10 AM
Education is always important. Because there is no direct control of the school district, the mayor needs to emphasize the importance of education. By investing in our creative community, assisting with and encouraging co-op programs, providing alternative extra curricular activities for after-school. Because these children and young men and women are participating in these other activities, they are less likely to commit crimes. Maybe these activities need to start in the class room, where you are most likely to reach the children. Regardless, our children need to know that they must be in school and not on the streets and that is the best way to live a safe and productive life, free of violence, drugs and jailtime.
Posted by Bewildered | August 8, 2006 5:40 PM