The Next Mayor

Sorry about the silence today, folks. We've been cooking up something for tomorrow. Please check back then, because we will want your input.

During our absence, two of our favorite local blogs are on the beat:

Young Philly Politics has Bob Brady blogging again, and RubyLegs over at Phillyville wrote about it. He's threatening t-shirts of this quote: "I hit a wrong key and deleted myself, daaaaaa."

Please sign us up for several.

Also, Philebrity has more than a word of support for DA Lynne Abraham and a thorough whacking for John Street in the ongoing DA/Mayor hostilities: "Abraham dared to voice what all of us have been whispering since forever already: Yes, that Street is a lame duck. Good for her. Seriously." Philebrity has dubbed 2007 the Year Without A Mayor. And with six people jockeying to fill a vacancy.

(ETA: U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, a potential candidate for mayor, has become the first candidate to commit to the reforms spelled out in the Committee of 70's Ethics Agenda, released today. Read 70's statement in this later post.)

The Committee of Seventy wants to know what it left out of its sweeping, almost 30-point Ethics Agenda.

By now, I hope you've read the document -- if not, take a detour and check it out. Everything from gifts to gerrymandering is touched upon in it. And Seventy has asked each of the Would-be Mayors for his official response: Will YOU commit to the ethical behavior outlined in the agenda?

We will be following their responses closely and posting them as they arrive.

But in the meantime, the Committee of 70 wants to know what you think. What has been left out? What's confusing? What is overly optimistic?

Obviously, the Committee of 70 is a partner in this project, and we did get a sneak peek at the agenda. However, we're not here to praise the document, but to decide if these kinds of commitments are what it will take to finally begin cleaning up a culture of corruption in this city.

You've voiced a desire for better government several times on this blog -- and it even showed up in our first poll of the mayor's race, last year, where 76 percent of those polled said they would be much more likely to support a candidate who had a plan to reduce government corruption.

So, your thoughts?

With the law firm of Cohen, Placitella and Roth, P.C., where he'll chair the "newly formed government relations practice." Complete press release after the jump...

Bob Brady is the first candidate to commit to the 28 reforms outlined in 70's ethics agenda, the Committee reports. Read 70s statement after the jump...

WHYY's Susan Phillips talked to Congressman Fattah earlier and got his initial response to Seventy's ethics agenda. While he didn't sign on as completely as Congressman Brady apparently did, he applauded the agenda and assured Susan that he'd be coming out with his own ethics agenda in the coming weeks.

Apparently, speaking about Seventy, Fattah is "very supportive of what they said in terms of overarching principles and in particulars."

He also promises that he'll be inviting people sometime "around the middle of the month to a press conference and lay out our agenda and our commitments relative to the question of ethics and transparency in government."

I'll send along more, including the .mp3 of the WHYY News story when it becomes available.

In a statement released moments ago, John Dougherty gives his response to the Committee of Seventy's ethics agenda:

A code of ethics should exist within the soul of a person, not on a piece of paper or in some quasi-public organization’s interpretation of a credible ethics agenda. Throughout my professional life, I have always adhered to the highest ethical standards and would continue to do so as mayor of this city. The three overarching principles set forth by the Committee of 70 mirror the tenets of the Redevelopment Authority’s Land Disposition Policy that I, as RDA board chair, put in place two years ago. My first official act after being elected IBEW Local 98 Business Manager in 1993 was to install a code of ethics that we live by to this day. I am strongly in support of expanding the state’s Sunshine Laws and believe that we need more openness and transparency in our government. On the issue of ethics reform, I’m ahead of the curve.

One thing is for sure, the guy calls it like he sees it.

Is anyone else confused as to why the discussion of lowering crime rates has turned into a referendum on a police commissioner who doesn't work here anymore?

For that matter, why are there rallies in support of a police commissioner who is about to retire?

And for THAT matter, why is Knox speaking at them?

Is any of this adding up to a plan to fight crime, or is the police commissioner talk just politics, though politics that somehow seems more palatable than, say, a deal to install a Republican as head of the Democratically controlled state House?

The only part of this that makes logical sense is that the cops would like an insider to replace Sylvester Johnson when he retires next year. That, I understand.

Chaka Fattah, Jr.

In the it's a small world category, Fattah Jr.'s former company, "Fattagraphy" (clever, eh?) comes up on Open Secrets as a recipient of $5000 bucks for services rendered as a photographer for... wait for it...

Congressman Robert A. Brady (D-PA) in March of 2002.

...head... spinning...

This sounds like the first of what may prove to be many family or personal skeletons released from the closets of several of our candidates. While I don't want to focus too much attention on them, this is supposed to be about issues afterall, I don't think it would be right to ignore them completely. So here's the deal, unless it's something really big (ie Milton Street big), such things will get their 15 minutes on the blog but not on the main page.

Good lord, we should have had this up ages ago...

(ETA) More importantly, crime is still issue No. 1. In fact, the release says the pollster "was astonished at the magnitude of identification of violent crime as the top issue."
When asked an open-ended question about what issue was the most important one for the city, "nearly two-thirds of those polled – said murder, violent crime or gun violence was the top problem for City officials. ... Public corruption, jobs and school performance trail distantly at 7% a piece.”

Other interesting facts...Fattah benefits from 95% name recognition; Fattah wins his district handily but even beat Brady by a slim margin in his own district; 89% of those surveyed said "a candidate’s race or ethnicity would have no impact on their vote."

The group behind the poll is the pro-business lobby Pennsylvanians for Effective Government. Read the poll release here.

Mayoral Candidate Dwight Evans has offered his services as a sort of couples counselor for Lynne Abraham and Mayor Street.

In a statement today, he said he wanted to see the two work together. "We can’t stop the violence if two of our most visible leaders are at odds with one another,” Evans said.

“I think we can all agree that it is in Philadelphia’s best interest to resolve our differences and come together to fight to restore the public’s safety," he also said. "Please know that I stand ready to assist both of you in this fight.”

(ETA: Apparently, Fattah Jr. has settled this debt; details in this sneak peek at Friday's Clout. Scroll to last item.)

I realize Dan linked to it in an earlier post, but just to be explicit...did you guys see this in Dan Gross' column in the Daily News today?

'I WILL GLADLY pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" may have worked for Wimpy, but Chaka Fattah Jr. is in quite a pickle with his food tab.

The Capital Grille (1338 Chestnut) yesterday filed a police report alleging that American Royalty, a luxury concierge company run by the 24-year-old son of U.S. Rep.Chaka Fattah, has run up a $14,000 tab at the restaurant and has refused to pay the charges.

"It's a business dispute, and we are working to resolve it quickly," said Chaka Jr. when we reached him last night. "It's a company account and I did inform them the bill would be paid," he said.

The elder Fattah, a mayoral candidate, declined to comment last night on his son's predicament. Capital Grille manager Carol Griffin confirmed that a police report had been filed, but offered no further comment.

Police sources say that typically, in such a matter, an arrest is unlikely, but the department would advise the establishment to take it to the district attorney's office.

Michael Nutter will greet commuters at SEPTA's 52nd and Market Street El platform Friday morning, from 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.

Commuters, this is important: He has, in the past, handed out Nutter Butters.

More on Timoney, this time from Dan over at Young Philly Politics:

"according to a Channel 6 News report I saw today, murders in Miami went up a staggering 28 percent in 2006..."

Hey, maybe he's the best option -- I just don't understand why he's the ONLY option, other than an insider, right now.

Someone with a good amount of experience crunching poll numbers sent me an email challenging my skepticism of the sample of the latest poll. To review, I had written that the Pennsylvanians for Effective Government poll seemed flawed:

since 60+ percent of registered Dems are black and the poll had a sample that was 50-50 black/white. I suspect Fattah would have been closer to the 31-33 that he got before if they had sampled differently.

The email I received (and I'll keep the sender anonymous since he didn't express that I could identify him) said:

hey Dan - just read a comment from you on your blog - it is true that most estimates have the democratic party to be about 60% minority - but not black - here's how to get to that number - the city is 42% white and 44% black - a couple political consultants and myself recently crunched these numbers and came up with these numbers for the democratic party 48% black, 39% white, 9% latino, 4% asian....

all that to say, I didnt find PEG's sample to be that much off - which surprised me cuz their pollster's crap and they've got suspiscious agendas, but their numbers look like several campaigns numbers i've seen

Hope that helps for all you political junkies (like me) who are out there.

Philadelphia Magazine's Sasha Issenberg, who you may know from his starring role in Tigre Hill's Shame of the City, is tracking the 2007 race in his Campaign Journal.

He brings a unique blend of historical analysis, political science, and critique of campaign strategy to his work. Besides that, anyone who can recall a simpler time when police commissioners wore their hearts on their sleeves and their nightsticks in the cummerbunds, is worth a read.

Michael Nutter has put out a more detailed repsonse to the Committee of 70's Ethics Agenda, in which he says he "strongly supports the proposals" of the agenda.

Then he details his track record on ethics reform -- and challenges the other candidates to do the same.

We would be happy to post that information, candidates...please send your statement to me at this address.

Today, Chaka Fattah will release a plan for fighting illegal guns in Philadelphia. This is part of the candidate's crime plan, which was developed by a group led by Lawrence Sherman, the University of Pennsylvania criminologist.

The plan calls for more cops to investigate illegal guns and homicides, more money to reward tipsters who lead cops to illegal guns (something he plans to launch immediately) and more surveillance cameras monitoring high-crime areas.

It's important to note that this is only Fattah's gun plan, a part of a larger plan to fight crime. He seems to be planning a number of press conferences that will detail parts of the plan.

Comments, anyone?

(Not to be outdone, Dwight Evans, we understand, is planning a crime-focused event this afternoon. We plan to have reporters at each event.)

Wow. Ok. I'll admit it. I am impressed.

I just got back from Congressman Fattah's event to unveil his "Plan for a Gun Safe Philadelphia" and boy is my note-writing hand tired.

I'll try to recap a little but I'm sure I'll miss something so stay tuned for further coverage from the Daily News's Catherine Lucey and WHYY's Shai Ben-Yaacov.

First we heard from a guest speaker named Nick Filopoulos, a shop owner whose store in North Philadelphia is on a block that had, until a few months ago, been beset with all kinds of gun violence and illegal activity. As far as I could tell, and the gentleman had a very thick accent so this is what I picked up, Congressman Fattah was responsible for funding surveillance cameras for that block which led to a dramatic decrease in the number of incidents.

Fattah then took the podium in the chapel at Mercy Hospital in West Philadelphia, a hospital which probably has seen more than its fair share of gunshot victims, and began by - get this - acknowledging all of the work that his fellow candidates have done on this issue. No one was left out - Nutter for helping to get funding for more cops, Evans for his work in Harrisburg, Knox for his petition drive, Dougherty for his "Enough is Enough" program and Brady for convening two violence summits. Can't say I've ever seen anyone do this before and it kind of gives me hope that this election may actually stay clean, civil, and issues-based. But I guess that remains to be seen.

Fattah then proceeded to lay out most of the 7 major themes of his plan and the 27 specific points of the plan. These points ranged from some proven evidence-based strategies based on the work of Professor Lawrence Sherman at Penn (more on that later) to other more "feel good" measures like a proposal for a gun buyback program (Goods for Guns), which have been shown through studies to be somewhat ineffective. Ironically, Sherman, who apparently headed the group that came up with this policy paper, was once quoted as saying that gun buy back programs are "the program that is best known to be ineffective." But hey, I can't fault the guy for offering to give grocery money to people for guns.

You can read the whole plan if you want. The coverage of the event will probably focus on the 1000 surveillance cameras that Fattah is proposing, his ducking and weaving when the questions came up about how he plans on paying for all of these proposals and his ideas for where he'll find the next Police Commissioner.

My questions were simple. Having heard Lawrence Sherman at least three times now (on Radio Times here and here with Dwight Evans and at the NCC at this event), I know that he's been touting the effectiveness and evidence-based success of programs designed to find illegal guns and remove them in an effort to prevent gun-related deaths. Many in the media would boil it down to "stop and frisk" but that phrase doesn't adequately describe the method and conjures up images of cops wantonly stopping people on the street for no cause (other than being the wrong color and on the wrong corner) and searching them.

Sherman's study focused on a program used in Kansas City in which a number of cops were taken off of routine duty and specially trained to spot very specific behavioral and physical cues that a person does when he or she is carrying a gun. According to this method, with the proper training, a cop is able to tell that someone is carrying a gun and be able to prove that he had constitutionally allowable probable cause to search that person. In essence, using this training, cops can stop someone, engage them in conversation and search them, and if they find a gun (most often a gun possessed illegally), they can arrest the individual and confiscate the gun. Sherman's point is that the program doesn't often end up increasing the number of gun confiscations but it does provide a deterrent effect in that people who would normally carry guns, if they know that "the gun patrol" is out and about, are more likely to leave them at home. The evidence in the Kansas City case shows (and this can be found in Fattah's plan) that in the target areas, there was a 49% drop in gun crimes.

Now, as I mentioned, I heard Professor Sherman present this plan at the National Constitution Center where he had met with a great deal of skepticism from DA Lynne Abraham and Commissioner Sylvester Johnson. Abraham basically said that such a program would just lead to lawsuit after lawsuit as people claim a violation of their civil rights. So there is some resistance out there to this program, even when an expert like Sherman is able to explain it fully and lay to rest any fears that this is just a "stop and frisk" policy as it is known in its most negative connotation.

If you read Fattah's plan, and if you heard him speak today, you'd notice that he effectively danced around exactly what it is that the "specially trained patrol officers" would be doing. From the plan:

Designate Patrol Officers to Go After Illegal Guns. With our existing police force, we will designate specially trained patrol officers in each Police District to go after illegal guns and the criminals who are most likely to use them. This targeted enforcement has been proven to be effective in other cities.

I read that twice. Can we agree that it doesn't specifically mention the exact procedure used by the cops according to the Kansas City program studied by Professor Sherman? Fattah even mentioned what the training was, ie being able to spot those physical and behavioral cues. But I listened very carefully and don't remember that he actually said that those officers could then stop and frisk the individuals under suspicion. So I asked him whether he specifically means that cops would be able to use their "special training" to stop and search people who were otherwise not committing any crimes and not running away from police. Would cops be able, based soley on this training and the physical and behavioral cues being exhibited by the gun carrier be able to stop and search that individual?

I expected him to dance around the answer some more. But this is where the dancing stopped. He said that he has no disagreement with anything I said. (He then proceeded to point out that if I read that point in the paper, I'd have gotten my answer... something that I still disagree with.) And that's where I was impressed. A very politically difficult proposal, something that could be spun by saavy opponents playing up to the fears of an audience without all of the background, as a violation of civil rights, but also an effective, evidence-based solution, and Fattah agreed with it.

As I said, the DA had her own problems with the program back in December at the NCC and I'll try to reach her for her comment, but I gotta admit, if Fattah can commit to that and succeed in having such a program implemented throughout the "hotspots" where gun violence is most prevalent, we may actually have an effective crime fighting strategy.

For those of you with a little time on your hands, try this little game, which actually looks more like an essay question on an "AP Criminology" exam.

Compare and contrast the Evans Crime Plan to the Fattah Crime Plan. I'll have my essay done by the end of the week.

Crime continues to be the issue today, as Michael Nutter has re-released his 14-point plan for fighting crime that he offered in testimony to the state Judiciary Committee in August. He says these 14 points, if implemented together, will produce substantial and sustained reductions in violent crime.

They include additional police (paid for by state money, local money and money from federal homeland security funds that can free up other city resources); better deployment and creating an undercover Repeat Offenders’ Unit; encouraging police to "stop and frisk" (with credit again given to Kansas); work on stiffening state gun laws; more surveillance cameras and other ideas. Read the entire 14 points below the jump, or read Nutter's blog entry on his ideas here.

Tom Knox has a new statement out saying he "wholeheartedly" endorses the Committee of 70's ethics agenda "after a lively discussion with board members about the nuts and bolts of how the plan would affect the operation of city government." Read his statement after the jump or on our ethics agenda page.

A commenter to my blog report about the Fattah event yesterday correctly pointed out that Michael Nutter's crime plan, given as a testimony to State Judiciary Committee in August (always a great way to get media coverage!), includes the same use of the Kansas City Plan:

Get handguns off the streets by encouraging more frequent police use of their Constitutional stop & frisk powers recognized by the U.S. Supreme Court, the most effective method known for reducing gun violence (as shown in 5 separate tests in Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis).

Anyway, click on "Continue Reading" for the comment and my response:

With a bold show of unity, West and East Mt. Airy are coming together to host one big candidate forum tonight at 7:30. Details are on The Next Mayor calendar.

According to Zak Abdul-Rahim, the Director of the East Mount Airy Neighbors, Knox, Nutter, Evans and Green Party Candidate Kerry Foster are expected to attend. Apparently Fattah's and Brady's pesky day jobs are keeping them on the Hill for a 7pm vote. With Brady's luck, this will be one of those time where they vote in reverse alphabetical order. Yes, literalists, I know there's no way he'd be able to make it back in time.

I'll also be there, hanging out at a table in the back with some Next Mayor brochures, looking for feedback from anyone who comes by. Man, I hope there'll be refreshments.

"Pennsyltucky Politics Blog." Sorta says it all.

And the effort, by Brett Lieberman of the Patriot-News in H'burg, is pretty darn good, too. Though he be in the state capital, he mentions yesterday's Fattah event in today' s post.

Don't forget, by the way, to check out our new Crime page, where we've posted crime plans offered by the candidates so far for your comparison.

Michael Nutter announced that his fund-raising efforts have raised a total of $1.7 million as of Dec. 31. After paying expenses, Nutter has $1.3 million for his mayoral campaign.

He said the donations came from 1,700 donors. He didn't detail who gave the money in this release but said he would on Jan. 31, when campaign finance reports are due to be filed, and said he has adhered to all fund-raising limits.

“I have received contributions from individuals who can write fairly large checks, but I have also received contributions from those who have contributed $25 or less. People have even written checks for $10 and told me it was the first time they had ever made a political donation,” said Nutter.

Because we are approaching the Jan. 31 deadline for campaign finance reports, expect the money race to be a focus of campaign coverage in upcoming weeks.

(ETA: The Daily News' Catherine Lucey checked this out -- it was the welcome video from his Web site. It's not on the site any more.)

Philebrity has posted a clip from You Tube of Jonathan Saidel. It sure looks like a campaign ad -- it's 60 seconds, and talks about why being mayor is important to him -- but it could be a get-to-know me thing from his Web site (which is still up, by the way).

Ah, take a moment to remember the campaign that wasn't.

(eta from Dan: Is there a hidden message in the fact that Philebrity posted that Saidel video directly above a video of the Geico Caveman)

I have some catching up to do with recaps from events that happened on Monday night and last night, so I better get started.

After spending the early afternoon with Chaka Fattah in West Philadelphia at one kind of crime-related event, I went to North Philly to sit in on an entirely different kind of event with Dwight Evans. Here's the recap of the event from the Daily News's Bob Warner:

Another mayoral candidate, State Rep. Dwight Evans, met a different set of critics yesterday [Monday] - 20 juveniles who have gotten into trouble with police for carrying guns, knives or narcotics.

"I would say he's out of touch," Woods said. "It's hard to understand the neighborhoods when you're sitting in an office."

Click "Continue Reading" to get my perspective of this event.

Over at Young Philly Politics, Dan has started an excellent thread on the need for public financing of elections, taking off from the Committee of 70s Ethics Agenda and our coverage of it.

And check out the equally excellent discussion of judge election vs. selection, too.

So, Michael Nutter has raised $1.7 million. How about the other Would-be Mayors?

The Daily News' Bob Warner found out, exclusively for the Next Mayor blog (thanks, Bob!). Here's the update:

Officially or unofficially, several of Nutter’s rivals - state Rep. Dwight Evans and U. S. Rep. Bob Brady - suggested they’d raised comparable amounts.

The one exception was U. S. Rep. Chaka Fattah, whose campaign spokesman, Solomon Jones, said they planned no disclosure of Fattah’s fund-raising until the Congressman’s official report is filed at the end of the month.

Millionaire businessman Tom Knox has already contributed $5 million to his own campaign – leading the city Board of Ethics issue a ruling last month doubling the city’s contribution limits. The limits now stand at $5,000 a year for individual donors and $20,000 for unincorporated businesses and political action committees.

Queena Bass, the former Jefferson University Hospital employee who jumped into the race way back in February, said she hadn’t raised any money and didn’t plan to. “I have a bullhorn and fliers and that’s how I’m running my campaign,” she said.

Where to begin? In the first, big, neighborhood-oriented candidate forum of the election season, the candidates in attendance and the good people of Mt. Airy came up big. Over 300 people packed the Brossman Center at the Lutheran Theological Seminary on Germantown Ave to see Dwight Evans, Tom Knox, Michael Nutter and Green Party nominee Dr. Kerry Foster (I'll have more about him soon).

I warn you it's long. But if you have the time, click "Continue Reading" and press on!

The first 30-second spot, called "For Michael," continues describing Knox's personal history as an explanation for why he wants to run for mayor.

The text: "I have known a lot of success in business – more than I ever dreamed. But I have also known the pain of losing my brother Michael to the devastation of drugs. I am running for Mayor of Philadelphia for him and for every family in our city that is threatened by drug abuse. To not just lead the fight against drugs, violence and crime – but to get families the help they need to save a loved one before its too late."

The second ad is below the jump.

Yeah, yeah. Michael Nutter released his fundraising totals and they are impressive. But if I were he, I'd be much more excited by this endorsement:

In the politico arena, I elect so-squeaky-it-hurts ex-Councilman Michael Nutter to the Hot List for his dapper suits and dadlike smile. The man rolled at least two deep at the City Paper 25th anniversary party — just imagine the places he could take his posse if he won mayorship!

Mayorship?

Check out today's Clout, where Daily News staff writer Gar Joseph has a unique way of ranking the declared and probable candidates for mayor.

WHYY's Stephanie Marudas has a story that you can listen to about Foxwoods Casino's efforts to reach out to their new neighbors. And Susan Phillips from WHYY filed this story about how area banks are teaming up to provide more small business loans in low and moderate income neighborhoods. Both require some sort of .mp3 playing software.

Meanwhile, check out this op-ed in today's Daily News by former City Councilman, current President of the Institute for the Study of Civic Values, and one of the participants of Community Forum #5 (requires Quick Time) - Ed Schwartz. Mr. Schwartz talks about budget priorities and explains how one of them - fighting recidivism - is getting the short end of the stick.

Catch ya on the flip side.

Oh yeah, and Chaka Fattah puts his two cents in on the Allen Iverson trade.

The Philadelphia Tribune was able to pin down the four declared candidates and get their positions on the state of mass transit in Philadelphia.

Without reading it thoroughly, let me see if can sum up what they said:

Chaka Fattah: My campaign will be putting out a detailed position paper on transit in the coming weeks.

Dwight Evans: I got (insert dollar amount here) in funding for SEPTA already but I have nothing to say about what I'll do going forward.

Michael Nutter: I'm going to blow it up and start over.

Tom Knox: SEPTA is important. I know what budgets are and I know we need to get more money.

Anyone else have their own spin on what they said? Feel free to sound off in the comments.

Don't worry sports fans. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month. I'll meet you on Broad Street for the World Series parade!

We will watch for sightings of the would-be mayors at events commemorating Dr. King today.

Fattah is helping to sponsor a "groceries for guns" initiative with City Councilwoman Blondell Reynolds-Brown, the police department, Men United for a Better Philadelphia and People for People. Apparently, the event -- at the North Broad St. YMCA -- is aptly named: People are invited to trade in their guns and get groceries. $200 in grocery vouchers per gun; $400 in vouchers maximum for each person.

Wow.

Knox and Nutter released their complete schedules; Knox will be assembling and handing out emergency preparedness kits in "underserved neighborhoods" with Gov. Rendell, Mayor Street and Paul Vallas, among other stops on his agenda; Nutter will be at King Day of Service activities at two schools, including Martin Luther King High, as well as a church service, a memorial breakfast and memorial lunch.

Evans has not released a schedule that we can find, but he has posted a letter on his site that encourages involvement in the events at Martin Luther King High school, so one would assume that he will be there.

Michael Nutter has announced that he will reveal his plan for "Safety Now" tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. The candidate chose to announce his plan at his childhood home, which is just two blocks from the site where the 21-year-old son of a Philadelphia police officer was killed Jan. 10.

Read the press release after the jump.

And don't forget: We are building a comparison of the candidates' crime plans on our crime page.

And Chaka Fattah will unveil his ethics plan on Tuesday as well, at 11 a.m. at the The Ethical Society on South Rittenhouse Square. See what he said about the Committee of 70's Ethics Agenda here.