Campaign "Tree Falling in the Woods"? (The Next Mayor)

City Paper has a couple of pieces that attempt to analyze the Nutter campaign. Their "Insider" (who are you, Insider?!), attempts to break down why a "once promising" campaign seems to be on its way to a huge flameout. The Political Notebook questions whether Nutter is the reforming firebrand that he claims to be or just another darling insider of the Center City elite. (The links aren't working for me at this time, maybe you'll have better luck.)

So while, the campaign that I once called the "smartest but least watched" absorbs some negative commentary from one of the city's weekly papers, what has the candidate actually been doing? For one, on a day when three-fifths of the major Democratic candidates were in or around a courtroom, Nutter went to a prisoner re-entry facility to tout his plan (there's video too!) for aiding ex-offenders as they try to get jobs. The print edition of the Inquirer (on page B-3) gave Nutter a gift with this headline:

"Nutter: Help provide jobs for ex-cons."

When Nutter's television ads go on the air, you may just see that headline. It's got three key words in it: "Nutter," "jobs," and "ex-cons." Nutter is key because the ad makers won't have to make any kind of visual leap to connect the main idea to the candidate. His name is right there. "Jobs" has been and will continue to be an issue in every election from now until we cease to use money as a way to get stuff. "Ex-cons" - this will require a little more explanation, but most people understand the connection between crime, the murder rate, ex-offenders, probationers and parolees and a lack of economic opportunity.

So who will be putting these ads on the air? That's a question the Insider asks - does Nutter even have a media consultant? Well, coincidentally, today the Nutter campaign gave an answer. So if a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it, does it make a noise? Film that tree and put it on local and prime time television with a million-plus dollar ad buy and you can bet it will make a lot of noise. The question remains, will the voters like the noise they hear?

Comments (12)

Dave

I've noticed a concerted effort from other campaigns in recent days/weeks to try to convince Nutter supporters that he doesn't have a chance and his campaign is over. I'm glad he finally broke the silence.

If nothing else, I think this election makes it obvious that most Philly voters aren't on the internet. Based on my observations, the only time a candidate's numbers have significantly changed has been after running advertisements on TV, which I think makes a much stronger case for the recommendation from Philadelphia Forward's Brett Mandel that something be done to give candidates more equitable access to media outlets during campaigns.

Posted by Dave | March 15, 2007 1:38 PM

Newbie:

The City Paper website is down, but it's premature to be knocking a solid candidate with $2 million in the bank. Once Nutter goes on t.v. his numbers should begin to rise.

Posted by Newbie | March 15, 2007 2:08 PM

FTP:

I love hearing Mr. Nutter speak. His ideas are always well thought out and yes, he does seem a bit to "bookish" at times. My biggest knock on his campaign is that it will be hard to show "regular folk" how these well thought out ideas will benefit them. A lot of people in Philly respond better to the bluster of a campaign, the booming voice of a leader in waiting, and good old fashioned mud-slinging. Philly is not a town where a reserved intellectual with a dry wit can rule. Mr. Nutter has an exemplary record in city council and in city politics, but like Marty Morningweg, he's an excellent asst. coach who does not currently have the tools to be a marketable and perceived successful head coach.

Posted by FTP | March 15, 2007 2:54 PM

Karen:

I think there is a lot of frustration among Nutter supporters that he isn’t on TV yet. I can understand the frustration. We have the chance to elect someone seriously good and we don’t want to blow the opportunity to turn this city around.

But Nutter's campaign seems to have a strategy to wait until voters are beginning to focus on the race and then when he goes on TV, to stay on the air.

He has the money and has been very successful at raising money from small donors. So next week, those of us who having been stretching to contribute to the campaign, to raise money from our friends etc, should see the results of our work.

One thing that polls do not measure is intensity of support, which Nutter sure has, and that matters in a close race.

Posted by Karen | March 15, 2007 3:37 PM

I think there's no questioning the fact that television ads become more effective the closer you get to election time, since the majority of voters don't start paying close attention until the last month or two before the election. I'm also impressed that Nutter brought Neil Oxman on board. Oxman has a good record, and did a good job working with Rendell's campaigns. He also gets quoted fairly often in the media on election issues, so he's definitely respected.

Posted by Dave | March 15, 2007 4:01 PM

Max:

I think this thread shoots a hole in the Insider's argument that bloggers haven't made Nutter's campaign a crusade. I see people on all the local blogs talking about their support for Nutter.

Posted by Max | March 15, 2007 4:09 PM

citizenthomas

These two articles articulate my concerns about Nutter. I threw my support behind Nutter after seeing Tigre Hill's film The Shame of a City at Michael's fundraiser last December. I was hoping he was going to take this film into the areas of the city where people need to see it. He has not done that. He is late in the game getting on TV and in my opinion he is far too nice to his opponents.I hope he get's it going but I am losing hope.

Posted by citizenthomas | March 15, 2007 4:21 PM

TurtlePower:

"Shame of the City" will get released in April; it'll be all over the news and all over the City. It will put Brady and Fattah in a horrible light. Also, he's not late in the game getting on TV. Have faith - the race will tighten up.

Posted by TurtlePower | March 15, 2007 4:54 PM

I say yes; Mike Nutter is the heir to Ed Rendell's legacy and I think that people are going to love what they see and hear from him.

Posted by TurtlePower | March 15, 2007 10:22 PM

Nutter's highlighting an issue that was included in this original crime plan (page 10 of PDF).

http://www.nutter2007.com/index.php/issues/full/crime_plan_release/

Posted by Dave | March 16, 2007 9:52 AM

Wow, Susan. Do you really think arguing that Michael Nutter is co-opting Tom Knox's policy ideas is a strategy that has any traction or even passes a laugh test?

Perhaps you should go back to that blog of yours so Tom can use your salary to buy another bottle of wine for his collection.

Posted by Max | March 16, 2007 4:13 PM

Matthew, what are you smoking?

Posted by Dave | March 18, 2007 8:08 PM

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