(bumped to the top)
We interrupt our Lessons Learned with 50 days to go to bring you this: the first Nutter ad. Watch, then we'll discuss.
I'll have some thoughts in the next post this post later.
(Edited to add)
Ok, as promised (or threatened) here are my thoughts.
Very interesting tactic but not surprising at all. We've been saying for a while now that Michael Nutter has been running his campaign as if he were running against John Street. In fact, back in February, I used this very succinct post to explain Nutter's entire campaign message in five words. This is what I said:
Here's my guess at the "message" that Nutter is hoping voters bring into the booth with them: Nutter is not John Street.
We've been gathering examples of this "run against Street" strategy since the beginning, from this post that Wendy did about Nutter's call for a crime "state of emergency" to any one of the following press releases:
NUTTER ISSUES STATEMENT ON MAYOR STREET’S BUDGET ADDRESS
MAYORAL CANDIDATE MICHAEL NUTTER ASKS MAYOR STREET “WHERE’S THE BOARD?”
MICHAEL NUTTER STATEMENT ABOUT MAYOR STREET’S COMMENTS ON CRIME IN PHILADELPHIA
Will this work?
On the one hand, aside from citing crime as a major problem, two of the things that a vast majority of Philadelphians seem to agree on are (1) John Street is not doing a good job, with only 22% giving him an Excellent or Good in job performance and (2) they don't like him too much, giving him a 58% unfavorable rating. In addition to that, the first question asked by the Keystone Poll is whether people feel that the city is generally headed in the right direction, or do they feel that things are off on the wrong track. Wrong track wins by an overwhelming 61-31 margin. The number was similar for the first Keystone Poll taken last summer. Neil Oxman, Nutter's media adviser, in this clip taken during an interview with WHYY's Brenda Jorett back before he took the job with Nutter, explains that the "wrong track" number is the same for every racial group.
So Nutter's strategy, in order to differentiate himself from Tom Knox, who has the advantage of a 3-month headstart on campaign ads, is to take that right direction/wrong track number and the Street favorable/unfavorable number and mash them together. Personify the dissatisfaction that people are having with the city in the form of someone the voters know. Make the connection that the pollsters are making - that people don't like Street so they don't like where the city is headed. Then make ads like this that tout his record as the anti-Street.
But doesn't this strategy put Nutter's support in the black community at risk?
Judging from the Tribune Poll, that support is already pretty low. But he doesn't need the entire black community, just like he doesn't need the entire white community or the entire Hispanic community. He only needs the rather substantial portion of each community that is dissatisfied with the current direction of the city and its current mayor. Besides, any part of the black community that is satisfied with John Street or is a big Street supporter, is probably going to go for Fattah or Evans. In a race like this, there's no such thing as "the black vote" just like there's no such thing as "the white vote" or "the latino vote," no matter what the leading voices of those communities might say. There's just black, white, latino and asian voters and many of them are going to make their decision based on more than just the color of the candidates skin.
Unfortunately, the Tribune Poll did not measure Street's favorable/unfavorable rating or his job approval rating nor did it ask whether respondents felt the city was moving in the right direction or was on the wrong track. That would be a pretty telling number.
But what about Knox? Hasn't he already taken Nutter's message and run with it?
Yes and no. There are slight differences between Knox and Nutter. Knox is trying to run as a total "outsider" with no ties to anyone.
Nutter can't use the Knox strategy of running as an "outsider" since one of his big advantages is that he has been working on the inside for so many years. But he can play that up by pointing to his legislative achievements, his knowledge of city government and his greater level of experience. Afterall, while Philadelphians may think the city is moving in the wrong direction, they haven't made the connection with "government" as much as they have with Street. When asked what qualifications they're looking for, 22% say "experience in politics or business" with most of them probably thinking "politics." No matter how dissatisfied they are, Philadelphians are extremely reluctant to leave government to someone with very little or no governmental experience. In fact, if you look down that list of qualifications, "Not attached to current city politicians" only gets 3%.
In a sense, Knox may have spent the last three months tee-ing it up for Nutter. He's run tons of ads to remind people how dissatisfied they are and gotten good movement on his poll numbers. Now this other guy (Nutter) can come along, say he's been battling John Street - the personification of their dissatisfaction - for years and say he's got experience that Knox lacks. The only thing left for him to do is to run a little from the left with ads that tout his plans for prisoner re-entry and boosts for public schools and make sure that all the ads can stay on the air until Election Day.
Then we see how well each campaign has done in building a field operation.
Comments (5)
A lot of people are unhappy with much of what Street has done, and Nutter has opposed him (and, more often than not, prevailed) on some of what I consider to be his more bone-headed moves. I think this ad should be pretty well received.
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
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March 26, 2007 2:27 PM
I think it's a great ad. Especially considering how low Street's job approval numbers are. It also shows that Nutter takes action and fights for what he believes in. Those are qualities Philadelphians respond well to.
Posted by Max | March 26, 2007 2:30 PM
I think this is a smart move, I dont see any downside to making it clear that he plans to do things differently. Street isnt popular and this may be a good way to stand out from the crowd.
Posted by sj | March 26, 2007 3:09 PM
In my opinion this "loyalty" to Street in the black community is being vastly overstated. I just don't think he's as popular as some experts seem to think. If the #1 issue for black voters is crime I dont see how Street could be popular seeing as though he is mayor while the murder rate is increasing.
Posted by sj | March 27, 2007 11:34 AM
Michael is the best and brightest of all of the candidates running, but he has made HUGE mistakes regarding his commercials.
I read that one of his chief advisors said that things would turn around once he got commercials on the air....that has not happened and I attribute that to the tone of his commercials. In fact they seem to be hurting his poll numbers instead of helping. The major mistake is he has failed to connect with the common man/woman and instead is continually preaching to his base which are the liberal to moderate voters (whose votes he already has). He seemingly has not sought out the swing vote. I don't know if that is due to his own thoughts or from the advise of his advisors.
Running against Street, who at this point is an irrelevant lame duck, will satisfy his base, but the swing voters I have heard from want to hear more about what he WILL do....not how different he will be from the current occupant of the 2nd floor. We already know that Street has screwed things up....What is Michael going to do to fix it?
The second commercial is worse than the first because he comes off as a smart-ass. People aren't uncomfortable with the tone of the ad....They just don't really understand why he is running against someone who is not running...
I don't know what he is going to do...but it is critical that he make some efforts to connect with those common voters....ASAP
Posted by Charles | April 9, 2007 6:01 PM