Numbers are shifting from one candidate to another and the only thing that remains constant is that if a guy named "Harvey P. Undecided" were running, he'd have this thing locked up with 27% of the vote. The campaign has taken a Highlander-esque turn with candidates going after each other in the hopes of absorbing the support of their opponents. One candidate seems to be benefitting more than the others because of this.
First the latest poll. Some quick analysis after the jump.
In the last poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research (SP&R), conducted for the Pennsylvanians for Effective Government and soon to be released by KYW, Michael Nutter has moved up into a "statistical tie" for first with Tom Knox. You'll remember that in the last poll released by PEG and conducted by SP&R from March 13-14, Knox took the lead with 22%, followed by Fattah at 17% and the rest in a statistical tie from 10-13%.
Now, Nutter has moved from 12% to 18% and Knox has dropped from 22% to 20% while his unfavorables have increased from 12% in March to 21% now.
According to a memo accompanying the poll, it looks like Nutter's gains are due to a surge in his support among white Democrats where he leads Knox 29% to 24%. The memo also indicates that Nutter may be benefitting from the fact that Brady's unfavorables have continued to climb. Meanwhile, Fattah, as in other polls, continues to enjoy the lead in support among black voters with Knox, surprisingly, maintaining second place in that category. However, 32% of the black voters surveyed remain undecided so there is room for any candidate to move there. The memo concludes by stating that it appears Knox "may have peaked too early." (ed. - Is that what the kids are calling it these days?)
The sample size and locations are indicated at the end of the poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4.62% at the 95% confidence level.
Comments (29)
Definitely worth noting that their sample is 49% White, 44% African-American. That certainly deflates Fattah...
Meaning that if this poll is generally right, you basically have a three way, incredibly close race. And who knows, with the other two still not far away... This thing is nuts.
Posted by Dan U-A | April 26, 2007 6:22 PM
This is huge. Nutter is the only candidate who has moved up and he has the highest favorable rating (58%) and lowest unfavorable rating (16%) of any candidate. Those numbers mean a lot in a race with almost 30% undecided.
The "Nutter can't win" chorus members now need to give it a rest. That is clearly not true, it now looks like ONLY NUTTER can beat Knox. Jump on board now strategic voters.
Posted by Max | April 26, 2007 6:23 PM
Dan, you are wrong. This poll's sample is 47% White, 47% African American. The 49%-45% sample was in the last poll. You know, the one in which Fattah was 3 points higher. Kind of blows your argument, huh? Nice try, though.
Posted by Max | April 26, 2007 6:27 PM
Max, you are odd. Sorry I clicked on the wrong link.
Posted by Dan U-A | April 26, 2007 6:36 PM
NOOOOO...this is too close. Nutter is the best candidate, Knox is the second best. Fattah will be a disaster. If I vote for Nutter, am I making it a greater possibility that Fattah will win?
Posted by phillycat | April 26, 2007 6:46 PM
Odd? No.
You were trying to couch the numbers in a way that made them seem not so bad for Fattah. However, the justification you used for that was false. The sample numbers you quoted, which were supposed to be harmful to Fattah, were actually from a poll that had him 3 points above where he is now. By your logic, that makes the fact that this sample is 47%-47% (more beneficial to Fattah), and he is 3 points lower, even worse for Fattah. More favorable sample + worse performance = VERY BAD. He has lost 15 percentage points from January (over half of his support), continues to decline and apparently has little money left. Those seem to all portend bad things for his chances.
Posted by Max | April 26, 2007 6:56 PM
Max, you are a little odd in that you think clicking on the wrong link in a post shows some sort of nefarious intent.
Relax, dude.
Posted by Dan U-A | April 26, 2007 7:17 PM
I am completely relaxed and I said nothing about your intent being nefarious. I just found it interesting that you felt it necessary to find whatever positive spin you could for Fattah, wrong link or not.
Posted by Max | April 26, 2007 8:20 PM
Nutter for Mayor!
www.nutterformayor.com
Posted by Anonymous | April 26, 2007 9:43 PM
to annonymous,I would vote for knox but i remember operation cold turkey and dont feel like being frisked by a bunch of police cause im poor.VOTE FATTAH
Posted by Anonymous | April 26, 2007 10:45 PM
Haven't heard from "Andy Daven" lately - or actually Andy Davenport - he works for the City's housing office.
Posted by PhillyDeservesBetter | April 26, 2007 10:58 PM
Notter sucks.Hes going to have safe streets 3 with frisking.He would turn the birthplace of lierty into an all out police state.One nation under surveilance;
VOTE KNOX
Posted by DR WEINSTEIN | April 27, 2007 12:06 AM
Is Fattah going to be the last hope of the party machine, since it appears Brady is done?
Posted by Anonymous | April 27, 2007 5:58 AM
The late president of the William Penn Foundation Kathy Engebretson wrote shortly before her death in 2005 something we should consider before voting in the primary...
"It's incredible the assets we have here, yet it seems it's only the people who come here from out of town that get it. Never think of this as a second-class city. Just go for it.
"We really need to get our politics fixed. Most places don't have the machines we have, the ward leaders we have, the control being exerted by people who shouldn't be exerting control. The whole system is really backward. And the electorate puts up with it. Their standards are way too low. They don't know enough about what happens in other places. We need to work on civic leadership."
In my opinion the only current candidate with the intelligence, vision and leadership needed to move us forward is Michael Nutter...hopefully his current momentum will carry through to March 15th.
Posted by Bill | April 27, 2007 6:57 AM
I would think low black turnout is good for Nutter and bad for Fattah. I just dont see Fattah's supporters being all that motivated on May 15 and that could be a problem for him.
whomever is complaining about stop and frish or any similar tactic needs to propose an alternative. Sorry, but the Street philosophy of "in order to preserve your rights I'm going to let Police officers sit in cars while your neighborhood becomes a shooting gallery" isnt working to well. But hey, at least no one is getting frisked.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 8:42 AM
It's going to take more than the mayor to get stop and frisk passed. I can't decide where I am on that one, but at least Nutter is thinking. That's what I like about him, he's thinking and willing to work. And maybe police should frisk people who jump the subway gate, skip school, and spit on the ground in front of a cops. Something needs to change in our town.
Posted by Greg | April 27, 2007 9:36 AM
To the people bashing Nutter for the stop and frisk proposal, listen to this WHYY program on that topic. You might find it informative:
http://www.whyy.org/podcast/121406_100630.mp3
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April 27, 2007 9:44 AM
Even if stop and frisk goes nowhere, its an idea worth debating. To be perfectly honest only the opinions of those who live in violence plagued areas counts in my book. I dont want to hear black suburbanites or white center city residents complaining about violating rights when they arent directly affected by gun violence. The bottom line is Philly needs to adopt whatever best practices that exist in other cities. Brady, Knox and Fattah dont seem to be supportive of this notion. Philly is not the only city with a lot of poverty and using demograhics as an excuse for the murder rate isnt acceptable. I'm tired of the "there's nothing more we can do" attitude of Street and Johnson. Why have other cities been able to cut their murder rates but our officials tell us not to expect similar things here?
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 10:53 AM
SJ justed mentioned something that few have brought up in this primary.
Motivation.
He said that he doesn't see Fattah's supporters being that motivated on May 15 and that could be a problem for him. 18 days from now motivation will be the key to success in this race.
So break it down.
Which candidate seems the most hungry and has the supporters to back him up? One really powerful factor on May 15th is that we spin this into "an important election" yet the fact of the matter is...its just a primary. A Democratic primary in an odd numbered year. A real impact can be made under such circumstances, let's see them happen on May 15th.
Posted by Patricio | April 27, 2007 11:06 AM
Re: who would listen to the experts, I'll throw in a personal anecdote:
Early on in the campaign, I attended a Michael Nutter "young professionals" meet-and-greet at a bar in Center City. The event was hosted by somebody who said she had first been impressed by Nutter when she did some work with the Convention Center. She said that, at a meeting, Nutter had turned to her while discussing a topic and said "what do you think about this?" She said she hadn't in a million years expected a politician to do something like that (seek her input on something). I must admit that the story also impressed me.
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April 27, 2007 11:24 AM
OH yeah, street just sat around.operatons sunrise, safe streets, safer streets and the site unit.They frisk someone looking for a gun, find weed and spend half of thier shift doing paperwork.Philadelphia has short memories,remember op cold turkey philadelphia got sued.Thats what goode did.and thats what nutter wants to do.What do you want the police to do eradicate drugs.Maybe if they werent busting nickle and dimers,they maybe couldve prevented MURDER.
Posted by response to sj | April 27, 2007 11:37 AM
Nutters idea is just a band aid.What is he going to do declare a state of emergency every murder.response is right,they need to concentete on bigger issues i.e murder shootings.Rendell had none of these band aid operations and murder was down.Thats why im viting knox.Hopefully he will run the city like rendell.
Posted by Anonymous | April 27, 2007 11:48 AM
If any of you get stopped and frisked, under any circumstances based on were you live contact the philadelphia chapter of the aclu and well smack them so hard with a lawsuit their head will spin.
Posted by aclu esq.joseph.t barnes | April 27, 2007 12:28 PM
I've heard about this cold turkey thing before and Street and Johnson have used it as an excuse. What they are really saying is Phila police cant be trusted to follow procedures and not break the law so they propose to do nothing different. Stop and Frisk is a scare tactic as much as anything else, people seem to miss that. Its supposed to make people think twice about toting their illegal guns with them everytime they head out to the bar.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 3:47 PM
anonymous,
one reason the crime rate and murder rate dropped under Rendell was because of Timoney. Knox and Brady have already said they dont plan to look at outsiders to replace Johnson. Nutter and Evans support using best practices from other cities and bringing in outside help for commissioner. NYC adopted aggressive crime tracking and fighting tactics in the 90s and Timoney was involved with that. Much of what was done in NYC (and proved effective) would NOT be supported by the FOP which means Brady and Knox wouldnt try and duplicate what NYPD did. Adding 500-1000 cops with no change in strategy (as Brady/Knox propose) is NOT going to work at all.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 3:52 PM
Ps: Much of the violence today is not drug related so "eradicating drugs" wouldnt do much. Most of these incidents stem from arguments or neighborhood disputes.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 3:53 PM
The ACLU needs to learn when its protecting citizens rights and when its costing jobs, lives, and futures.
Posted by John | April 27, 2007 6:04 PM
As a point of correction -
Mike Nutter has gone on the record supporting the limited use of a "stop and frisk" approach to gathering up illegal guns based on the research of Penn's Lawrence Sherman and the successes of a similar program in reducing homicides in Saint Louis, I believe.
Anyway Sherman and ACLU attn'y Rudovsky debate the idea at length on the following link.
http://www.whyy.org/podcast/121406_100630.mp3
As a point of correction to the idiot who keeps saying that Nutter's support of this approach is a reason to vote for Fattah. Fattah actually supported exactly the same approach and refereced exactly the same studies by Prof. Sherman in his crime plan. Go to the Fattah website and look at it yourself. Admitedly it does not go into as much detail about how Fattah would implement it as Nutter's policy papers do but its defintely there.
Why would you make a policy that both Nutter and Fattah have gone on the record as supporting be a reason to vote for one over the other?
Posted by seand | April 28, 2007 4:45 PM
Which candidate is the phila police backing?
Posted by Not Sure Yet | May 14, 2007 6:25 PM