You knew this was going to happen, folks: Tom Knox is leading the race for mayor, according to a new Daily News Keystone Poll, which we're bringing to you first (and if you are up at this hour, we want to know why).
The reason that Knox is in the lead? It's not that his percentages grew -- they did, but by a small amount -- it's that Chaka Fattah's fell, from 26 percent in January to 17 percent now.
Meanwhile, Fattah's "favorables" (the percentage of people surveyed who have a favorable opinion of him) fell, and his unfavorables grew. The opposite happened to Knox.
Now, I realize what this says. Advertising works, especially if you can afford to pour it onto TV like so much gravy. Suddenly, Knox's name recognition problem has gone away.
John Baer, in today's Daily News, also points out that Knox has benefited from remarkable luck in this election, with lots of things going his way lately.
But I believe the results of this poll really reflect the candidates' ad strategy at this point in the race. Brady, who has also been advertising heavily and was barely in the race at the last poll, did well too: the percentage of voters who said they would be likely to vote for him jumped from 8 percent to 16 percent.
And on the issues? It's still all about crime, with voters expressing their approval of stop and frisk and, by the way, of the return of John Timoney.
We also asked for voters' opinion of casinos in Philadelphia, and got a classic Philly response. Opinions were divided on whether or not they would be good for the city, but respondents sure didn't like the locations that had been approved.
Read our full coverage of the poll here.
Comments (29)
Knox is talking the talk and he has the time and resources to connect with people on TV and in his various meal events. He's winning the name recognition battle at this point. In the next few weeks, when all the candidates get debate/ad time, involved people will weigh the substance of his ideas vs. the others and decide.
Posted by FTP | April 5, 2007 9:45 AM
Knox seems to have good intentions. I think Nutter has the same intentions and a better grasp on how city government works, though. That said, I'd definitely rather see Knox win than Brady or Fattah.
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
|
April 5, 2007 9:55 AM
Unfortunately, this doesn't seem like a particularly well done poll. For example, it uses registered voters instead of likely voters, and the margin of error is 5%. Nonetheless, it's clear that Fattah is trending down.
Posted by Observer | April 5, 2007 10:29 AM
At this point we might be able to say this is Knox's race to lose. He message is perfect for the times we face, even if his ability to actually govern is totally unknown. He hasnt provided us with many details but contrary to what the Brady campaign thinks, people are NOT turned off by a guy using his own money to buy ad time. Sure he's rich, but people are buying into his "I wont owe anyone" pitch right now.
Posted by sj | April 5, 2007 11:14 AM
It amazes me how ignorant many Philadelphians are. Bob Brady is a joke.
Posted by VJ | April 5, 2007 11:28 AM
It is far to early to tell. Right now Knox is flying high because his ads are all you hear. Once all the candidates get on tv, and negatives on both sides come out, especially if this payday lending history of his plays out in the news, his numbers will start to go down. Also, 20% of those that responded were still undecided.
In another light - Knox spent $3 million since the last poll and he moved up 2 points? It looks great because Fattah dropped.
I just have a feeling that a "rich guy who made money off payday lending" can't lead in the polls for too long.
Besides - other than being a rich guy, what does Knox do? All our problems can't be solved because he's independent. Plus if he wins, do you think he's paying off his own loan to the campaign? No, he holds fundraisers and solicits the same people donating to other candidates now.
Posted by Rachel | April 5, 2007 12:29 PM
I wouldn't mind our own Bloomberg! Could good politicians actually exist in Philly? Change seems to have a chance these days, but I'll believe it when I see it....
Posted by GB | April 5, 2007 12:35 PM
I second that GB. Look what Bloomberg has done and continues to do in NYC. People gave him the same doubts when he ran his first election and all the career politicans said he couldnt do it, and they certainly didn't want an outsider to win. Now he has nearly the highest approval rating in the city of all time. My vote goes to Knox. Let's see what he can do, I'm tired of corrupt politicians and shady deals with unions all so they can vote in the unions best interest.. Go Knox!
Posted by Anthony | April 5, 2007 1:45 PM
Knox just seems creepy to me. We don't know anything about him besides what his own commercials say. I think newspapers will start telling the knox story more and it won't be pretty. And remember, things that heat up quickly, cool down quickly too.
Posted by babs | April 5, 2007 2:25 PM
Change, progress, and reform is long overdue in Philadelphia. We need to raise our standards and expectations and stop catering to the stupid and lazy.
GO KNOX GO! Give Philadelphia the enema it so desperately needs!
Posted by Anonymous | April 5, 2007 2:48 PM
it's hard to believe there are so many brain dead people who just buy ANYTHING a candidate says in his tv ads! Tom Knox is for reform. right. Tom Knox has been involved with unethical conflicts of interest his whole career. I know him. I served with him in the Rendell Administration
Posted by janice | April 5, 2007 4:11 PM
Thank you Janice!
There's a reason this guy is "lending" himself the money (for the campaign sake, I hope it's not at 400% interest).
Let's not forget that Bloomberg ran with actual ideas, not with the notion that "city hall is corrupt." I fully expect Knox to be just as shady as the others. Whoever thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.
Posted by Rachel | April 5, 2007 4:59 PM
Philadelphia is not New York and New York in not Philadelphia.
Alot of the current problems in Philadelphia are specific local issues, namely the entrenched and corrupt Democratic City Committee headed by the illiterate Bob Brady.
Posted by Anonymous | April 5, 2007 6:56 PM
Ask yourself a question, do you like John Street?
If the answer is no, then why on earth would you support Bob Brady??
Brady LIED to every Philadelphian, simply to ensure Street got re-elected. Why? Because it meant he got to keep getting his "cut" of the city.
Posted by Anonymous | April 5, 2007 7:58 PM
After reading all the responses that followed my initial one posted last night, all I can say is thank God the election wasn't held today! For after learning more about this candidate who I knew relatively little about when I posted last night's comment, other than from the Knox ads themselves, my feeling right now is schwew! What a close call that was! For it's easy now to see that Knox -- with that "sincere" look he puts across -- will tell anyone what they want to hear so as to get elected, which I in turn mistook for his being "well-rounded."
But that aspect of his being tied with Rendell did irk me. For clearly Philadelphia could not possibly have a worser enemy right now than Gov. Rendell himeself -- so much so that it's hard to reconcile that he was once the mayor of this town.
Anyway, now that I've learned more about who Knox actually is and how he made his wealth, it's now back to "none of the above" once more. [Sigh...]
Posted by Steve W. | April 6, 2007 12:14 AM
Steve,
I suggest that you try to show up at some of the candidates' events and meet the candidates themselves. At this point, it's a little late and most of the events are fundraisers, but I did this way back before anyone was paying much attention and it was very helpful to me in deciding what candidate to support. One of the things that struck me about Michael Nutter was that he seems willing to tell you his position on an issue, even if it differs from yours. None of these candidates are total outsiders, and probably wouldn't be where they are today if they were (at least the non-millionaire candidates) but, if you're going to judge them by what they've done in the past to reform the system, I think Nutter's also the only candidate who has anything significant to say in that respect.
My $0.02
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
|
April 6, 2007 8:43 AM
Yes, I've more or less concluded that Nutter's the best of all the candidates, too, while I'm a bit amused right now by how quickly Tom Knox's "15 minutes of fame" is quickly coming and going.
At least among the more intelligent among us.
For dispite the lack of support he'll have from Philadelphia's intelligentsia he could well still hold the lead and get elected, of course. It won't be the first time historically that's ever happened, and it's usually the way dictatorships are born.
And with his strong ties to Rendell you just know he's going to be pro-casino for this city. And today I felt an especially terrible chill when I read that he wants to extend the Frankford El up into Far Northeast Philadelphia -- as in, "My gosh! What a scary thought!"
Posted by Steve W. | April 7, 2007 1:22 AM
I know Bob Brady , I grew up with him in West Philly. Bob is not J.F.K. nor Bill Clinton. I do know one thing he is honest, loyal and has a deep and passionate concern about this city and it's inhabitans. He is himself, and thank God for that. Bob has been in politics most of his adult life.
He knows where all of the corrections that must be made in this city to make it a first class city.I'm sure he will do whatever is neccesary to achive his goals of a better city for all of our citizens.Thier is a reganex side to Bob.I think he see's the big picture for the city, he is not a canidate but a coming.A force for change, people involement and coming together for our community.This upcoming primary, will seperate us from the old politics to the new progresive light. Bob Brady holds that light
Posted by Vincent Tinari | April 18, 2007 10:23 AM
Tell me how Bob Brady greatly differs from his congressional counterpart Allyson Schwartz -- who is truly the bottom of the barrel -- and maybe I'll start taking you seriously.
Posted by Steve W. | April 20, 2007 1:27 AM
I would vote for nutter but, im not interested in being frisked cause im poor,I hope chaka fattah wins.He sounds like he can get to the core of the problem jobs poverty,hopelesness instead of having a police state.This is philadelphia the birthplace of liberty, nutter should remember his roots.
Posted by stella worenthal | April 25, 2007 11:28 PM
Im voting for knox.I hope he governs philly like rendell.At least then i was proud to be a philadelphian,and the news wasnt aline with failed operation after operation theirs been ups and downs of murder in philly nothing will change that, no one goes in those neighborhoods anyway.
Posted by Vote knox | April 25, 2007 11:36 PM
Yes, it really is true that this is Philadelphia, the birthplace of liberty as you say, Stella. But, as I think of Philadelphia as it is today, isn't that akin to saying that Baghdad is where the Garden of Eden was located? Or at least that's what historians have said. But you sure as heck wouldn't know that now would you? Meantime, though I don't know it for a fact, when I listen to that classic early 1970s song, "Miss American Pie" I can't help think that Don McLean had to have been in Philadelphia when he penned that classic line: "And the three men I admired most, the Father, Son and Holy Ghost, caught the last train for the coast, the day the music died."
Actor Sylvester Stallone the last time he was here in Philadelphia, which was for the shooting of ROCKY BALBOA in 2006, said during an interview that some of the most brilliant minds, perhaps the greatest the world has ever known, were all once concentrated right here in Philadelphia. And he was certainly right about that, though all evidence of it continues to wane. Some of that evidence eroding away naturally, other through deliberate action -- the whole "trophy hunting" thing if you will. The Fox Chase Cancer Center's desire to bring down Burholme Park being a classic example.
And maybe that's just how it goes; a once great city can never be great again.
But then again I don't know. Other cities seemed to sag for a time but then came roaring back. But for it to happen you have to have brilliant people, while Philadelphians keep batting its brilliant people away, while the state of Pennsylvania at large chuckles, "That's Philadelphia for ya!" and many current Pennsylvania suburban residents say, "I'm so glad I'm not living there now"...
Posted by Steve W. | April 26, 2007 1:25 AM
Steve,I live in southwest philadelphia.Its ridiculous to compare were i live to baghdad,unless you hang out on the corners on all hours of the night its safe.You dont have to look for i.e.ds on the road.The media is blowing this way out of proportion.Ive lived through mayors operations.In 1985 i was searched under operation cold turkey unless youve been frisked for no reason you wont know how it feels.Im very proud that mike nutter doesnt have a chance and i hope he knows why.
Posted by stella w | April 26, 2007 8:13 PM
VOTE KNOX!!stella your right remember cold turkey,gooD thinkin.It would be safe streets 3 add stop and frisk to that.Tom knox will add 1000 police to your commmunity and bring jobs TO EVERYONE.A VOTE FOR KNOX IS A VOTE FOR MORE JOBS.
Posted by D.MARTIN LUTZ | April 26, 2007 10:25 PM
Nutters crime plan is orwelian.Stella your right.He also wants to put a blinking surveilance police camera on every corner in poor neighborhoods.I wouldnt put up with that.Good ears
Posted by kevin bowden | April 27, 2007 12:10 AM
In this once great city of ours we have a very sizeable area, a band that runs across the city's midsection from the Delaware River to the Montgomery County line and seperating Center City from Northeast Philadelphia in the process called "The Badlands." In Philadelphia's past all this had been the city's thriving industrial areas which produced the tremendous prosperity that once made this city so great. But it all became the Badlands when the countless industrial operations that once flourished there got shut down one way or another, and one right after the other. And when all the great paying industrial jobs were gone, crime, poverty and despair quickly rose up in their place.
How did this happen and did it have to happen? Answering the latter question first, the answer is no. As for how it happened, politics was totally to blame for that. That is, a politics that preferred prosperity as a result of crime over that of a legitimate nature.
And see, that's the big problem with Knox, who many are currently mistakenly hailing as the city's next big "savior." For he rose up and became rich in a place and at a time when it was impossible to do so legitimately. And the way he did was hardly legitimate. Payday loans was his primary method. That is, his wealth came at the expense of his exploiting other poor people all around him. For payday loans, also known as predatory lending, is the practice of entrapping others in debt so deep that they can never hope to rise above it short of those doing this form of lending being convicted for it. In other cities men like Knox go to prison for this sort of thing. But alas, here in Philadelphia they not only walk scot-free but get to run for mayor, even leading in the polls the way Knox has!
To clearly understand where Philadelphia is at right now, think of the Titanic. The Titanic has struck an iceberg and the ship is fast sinking. And with its fully sinking at some point being seen as the inevitable, rather than trying to do some good where it's still possible to, some of the lowlifes aboard are just taking full advantage of that inevitable. They're killing fellow passengers to grab their jewelry or what have you, reasoning, "Hey, they were going to drown anyway!" And maybe that is so. But it does not make right intervening on fate's behalf. Which is how Tom Knox went about making his wealth. And for those who think he's the right man for the job as Philly's next mayor -- and even I mistakenly thought this at first as my previous messages posted at this website will show -- as P.T. Barnum said...
Posted by Steve W. | April 28, 2007 1:05 AM
Your buying into pay to play bradys smear tactics hook, line and sinker dont be so naive steve,Vote knox for a thousand new officers and no stop and frisk cause your poor or black.
Posted by tom kurek | April 28, 2007 12:43 PM
If the next mayor is mr nutter or anybody and any of you think you have been unfairly pulled over please contact the philadelphia a.c.l.u we will take your case for free.
Posted by Anonymous | April 28, 2007 10:26 PM
Hah, good one! For of the many times I've looked to the Philadelphia ACLU throughout my life for any sort of backup I've never known them to be a force for good. Pity too, for Philadelphia could really use such an organization -- as the Philadelphia ACLU fraudulently poses as -- to go forward once more. Instead, the Philadelphia chapter of the ACLU has always gone all out to be the O'Brien character in Orwell's 1984. Alas!
Posted by Steve W. | May 1, 2007 1:54 AM