Mysteries of the race (The Next Mayor)

As usual, it's John Baer who crystallizes a key question of this race in today's Daily News: Why did the poll numbers for Nutter and Evans move so little in the last Keystone Poll? And what's going on with the Fattah campaign?

"...Mysteries.
"Evans first. Why, given his experience, what he knows, what he's done for schools and law enforcement, how his North Philly House district is a mini-town of economic, social and public safety gains he could maybe bring the whole city, is he last in the latest Daily News poll?

"Why, given the story he has to tell and his work on every important issue in the last two decades, especially gun violence, does he run a TV ad about a kid getting on a SEPTA bus with a table?

"...I feel the same about Nutter. Smart, experienced, capable. He, too, let's be honest, would make a fine mayor. Yet I keep hearing he can't win because he's "not black enough," because issues he's most identified with (smoking ban, ethics, campaign finance) are non-issues in the neighborhoods.

"...Evans and Nutter are the long-time, hands-on laborers most familiar with city problems. Yet they trail the field and (worse, for them) face growing perceptions they can't win.

"...Fattah? The mystery to me is what's going on.

"Regarded by many as frontrunner since `05 when he started serious campaign planning, his recent minor missteps (tax returns and finance reports) strike me as surprising.

"...He has a dream team of advisors, including David Axelrod (who advises Barack Obama), Greg Naylor, Herb Vederman and Tony Podesta, all veteran pros of Philly, state and national politics.

"His run should run as smoothly as a five-figure Rolex watch.

"But it seems slightly off, like someone forgot to spring forward.

"Over confident? Waiting too long to go on TV?

"I just don't know."

So let's discuss. I'll start with a small idea: the candidates' ads. I think we're paying too much attention to their presence -- to the fact that Knox's ads are everywhere -- and not quite enough to what's working. Take Brady, for example. He's bought plenty of time, to be sure, and labor support will never hurt in Philly.

But I think the reason he moved so much in the poll is that the ads he aired really hit home. They were clear, law-and-order and protect-our-kids messages. Likewise, Knox's ads are everywhere, but they are also good ads -- they, too are resonant messages that give you an unmistakeable image of the candidate.

Fattah has done well because he has one of the most recognizeable names in Philadelphia, thanks to his role as Congressman and his wife's role as TV news anchor. Now, he'll have to give the masses more to work on -- to pony up some of his resources and start advertising that's as clear as Knox and Brady's.

Nutter has started an ad campaign -- barely begun when the Daily News did the latest Keystone poll -- that has a clear message too: He's not John Street. It will be interesting to see if that message resonates as well.

Personally, I liked Evans' "Table" ad, but perhaps it is possible to overthink political advertising.

Comments (16)

barbara:

The problem with Knox's ads is that he has spent millions claiming to be an outsider, but he's lying and when voters find out how bad he's lying, I have to believe there will be resentment and backlash. The thing I like about the other candidate's ads, take Brady's and even Evan's ads for instance, is that you don't get the sense that they are trying to pull the wool over your eyes like Knox.

Posted by barbara | April 9, 2007 8:10 AM

Dave

I'm waiting to see the next poll before I pass judgement on Nutter's campaign. I think he's clearly the best candidate, but I do realize that he didn't start out with nearly the name recognition of a couple of the other candidates or Knox' resources. I do think his ads will resonate with a lot of people, though.

I'm a little mixed about Evans. He sounds like he knows what he's talking about, but it bothers me a little that he's been endorsed by the transit workers' union that's caused transit users so much grief over the years. He also seems to be a believer in solving problems by spending public money, which the city doesn't have too much of (I could be wrong about that, though).

Not sure what people see in Fattah. Sure, he got a couple huge donations pre-candidacy that he spent (possibly in violation of campaign finance rules) hiring people to write policy papers for him, but I get the impression he doesn't even read them all the way through half the time. I'm honestly starting to think he didn't know his crime plan contained stop-and-frisk when Dan asked him about it, which would explain his reaction (dodging the question, then saying "if you'd read the paper you'd know" or whatever it was). He also strikes me as pretty arrogant at times. I don't think Fattah really has what it takes to be mayor. He hasn't even been that great a congressman, from what I gather. I definitely won't cry if he loses.

Posted by Dave | April 9, 2007 10:01 AM

Dan C.:

I truly believe that if the public focused exclusively on experience and qualifications, Nutter and Evans would be neck and neck. However, these races are and have always been centered on popularity contests and money, which explains why we currently see Tom Knox and Bob Brady at the helm. Nothing against either, I can't say I mind the idea of Knox as mayor, but when a guy like Michael Nutter successfully legislates ethics and campaign finance reforms in a city run by a corruptive democratic party for so many years (that was preceded by a corruptive republican party for so many years), you have got to give the man some respect and fair consideration as an individual not afraid to put the city's best interests in the forefront.

Uh-oh, did I just convey my endorsement?

Posted by Dan C. | April 9, 2007 10:51 AM

ok, just so I'm clear, I support Mike Nutter. But the only thing you know about Tom Knox is what he has put in his own commercials period. Even Monica Melpass from ch 6 said yesterday on the air that Tom Knox has gotten a free pass in the media. The shame is that the newspapers are aiding his candidacy by their embarassing lack of critical reporting, it is hurting good candidates like Micheal Nutter.

Posted by barbara | April 9, 2007 12:08 PM

Sbadeau

I am really hoping that our city will not be "hijacked by the 60 second commercial". I wish everyone - voters in general, ALL the media venues AND every questioner at every public forum would really ask the tough questions and the candidates would candidly and completely answer, so we can be informed and knowledgeable voters.

Take the issues I am most concerned about - issues related to the health, safety, education and well-being of our city's children.

Who is going to say they are against kids? No one, least of all a candidate for mayor. They are all FOR kids. No surprise there.

But I want to hear and see SPECIFICS - I want to know HOW they will enact policies designed to help our kids them enter school ready to learn, keep thems safer after school, keep them on track to graduate and help them have the critical adult connections they need in their lives.

AND I want to know HOW THEY WILL PAY for the proposals they put forward. I keep asking these questions, but I wish that the media, and lots and lots of others would ask these questions until the answers are FRONT AND CENTER and voters can use this kind of meaningful information to make decisions.

Please people - ask for more than 60 seconds worth of information before you decide who to vote for!

Posted by Sbadeau | April 9, 2007 12:19 PM

PS - sorry about the typos - that's what happens when you are passionate and typing FAST!

Posted by Sbadeau | April 9, 2007 12:20 PM

Actually, let me rephrase what I said in my initial post: "I'm waiting until the last poll before the election before passing judgement on Nutter's campaign, and will most likely vote for him regardless"

Posted by Dave | April 9, 2007 12:30 PM

Sam I Am:

Forget Tom Knox. The scariest part of this election is how unbelievably good Bob Brady's commercials are. He is an unqaulified hack, but stupid people might just buy into his neighborhood tough guy b.s. - which is just brilliantly conveyed through his ads. Help Us!!

Posted by Sam I Am | April 9, 2007 1:13 PM

FTP:

What about the other DN article about GEAR UP? Despite Congressman Fattah's constant use of it as a model program in his campaign, I'd be curious to know the results of it nation-wide in comparison to Philly.

Posted by FTP | April 9, 2007 2:13 PM

Lamont thomas:

Tom Knox is pulling the wool over everybody eye's he is going to be the white John Street. He made most of his money off of poor black people with pay day loans. If he is willing to steal from poor people how much more is he going to steal once he is in office. Bob Brady don't forget is the same guy who would not give black people a equal opportunity in his all white trade union but now he wants to be Mayor. Let's not forget about that back stabbing Fattah who tried to get me kicked off the ballot after I would not make a deal with his people. The more he open up his mouth, the more people know how ignorant he is trying to charge people $22 to ride in their own city dumb ass $%#&^*%$$$

Posted by Lamont thomas | April 9, 2007 2:18 PM

sj:

I think Nutter or Evans would be good mayors, especially Nutter but I would be shocked if either of them win. Evans has zero appeal to most whites and Nutter's personality and knowledge of the issues arent necessarily beneficial in a city like this. People in Philly (many of them) like the idea of a "regular guy" like Brady being mayor. He seems like a nice uncle or grandfather and he believes in having lots of cops on the street. The fact that Brady (and Knox) are short on details about how they are going to save Philly dont bother the average voter who doesnt delve into the issues. Sad is it sounds, I think Nutter comes across as too smart and stiff to be mayor. I think he could change that image with his future ads, but it remains to be seen if he will attempt to do so. I do not put much belief into the theory that he is alienating black voters by talking about Street. That is a joke.

Posted by sj | April 9, 2007 2:46 PM

I agree with sj that Nutter isn't necessarily going to "alienate black voters" by criticizing Street. Street's approval rating is under 30% in a city where almost half the population is black. Since Street also has significant support outside of the black population, it looks like his approval rating, even among black voters, is probably not much more than 50%.

I'm also inclined to agree with sj on what a lot of voters in Philly seem to be looking for in a mayor. I once asked a guy (from Sharswood... north of Girard College) what he thought of Fattah. He said Fattah was Ok, but that he would prefer to see Jannie Blackwell as mayor because she would be a "mother-like" figure in city hall. 'Nuff said.

Posted by Dave | April 9, 2007 2:56 PM

Rachel:

Let's just remember that Nutter and Evans RAISED more money by the end of last year than Brady, Fattah and Knox (he lent, didn't raise).
Either Nutter and Evans are stockpiling for later or they aren't planning properly.
I also agree that it was misplaced strategy for Evans to join forces with Knox - there was no benefit for Evans. Knox was willing to fight the battle with or without him. He should have stayed out.

Posted by Rachel | April 9, 2007 3:06 PM

I suspect that Nutter may be waiting until some of the other candidates (mainly Brady and Knox) wage negative campaigns against each other for a while before investing heavily in advertising.

It's a risk because you don't have a lot of time to build momentum. However, if you rise in the polls too quickly, you run the risk of getting targeted by another candidate for negative advertising (very bad if it's Knox, who basically has unlimited funding).

We'll see how it all plays out.

Posted by Dave | April 9, 2007 3:28 PM

I do think Nutter and Evans are saving money for a ad blitz in the last two weeks or so. That may be effective because all that matters is people's opinions when they go to vote. Sure Fattah and Knox have been at the top thus far, but that could change quickly with the right ads. As we all know, the most qualified candidates often don't win elections. It wouldnt be Philly if Fattah or Brady didn't win. Knox has the benefit of being an outsider but I have doubts about his ability to run the government. I would rather Knox win than either congressman.

Posted by sj | April 10, 2007 8:47 AM

I hope "Philly" grows up and becomes "Philadelphia" this election.

Posted by Dave | April 10, 2007 9:55 AM

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