Nutter internal poll shows results of advertising (The Next Mayor)

Our reviewers had some concerns about Michael Nutter's I AM NOT JOHN STREET advertising messages, but the Nutter campaign says they're working.

They have a new internal poll that shows Nutter surging ahead of Chaka Fattah, behind only Tom Knox. The numbers show:

Tom Knox: 27
Michael Nutter: 18
Chaka Fattah: 15
Bob Brady: 11
Dwight Evans: 6
Undecided: 23

This poll was taken after Nutter's most recent ad started airing. The Daily News' most recent Keystone Poll was taken earlier in that ad buy.

Now, it's an internal poll. But, the accompanying memo says, Nutter has buffed up his image with voters as well. Nutters's "positive-to-negative ratio at nearly four to one; more important, Mr. Nutter’s standing among the critical undecided bloc is better than seven to one (positive to negative)," reads the internal memo about the poll, calling that "a strong indication that he has considerable room to grow in the coming weeks."

The survey was of 403 likely Democratic primary voters in Philadelphia. It has a margin of error of ±5.0 percentage points.

PS: I asked the Nutter campaign where the candidate was at the Shame of A City screening -- and they said he flat ran out of time that night, thanks to a series of public events and a private meeting that he had to attend. They added that he really wanted to be there.

Comments (36)

Dave

Maybe Neil Oxman knows his job better than the armchair pundits after all ;-)

Posted by Dave | April 13, 2007 9:49 AM

Dan:

in a poll with a margin of error of 5%, I don't see how a 3% lead can be called "surging ahead"

Posted by Dan | April 13, 2007 11:34 AM

Adam B

The question is whether John Street has been so hidden, so quiet, such a lame duck lately that people have forgotten (from 2003 through the Kemp conviction) why they were so embarrassed by him, and that maybe this won't motivate folks enough.

Posted by Adam B | April 13, 2007 11:42 AM

sj:

One thing is for sure, Knox is still ahead. That doesnt seem to be in dispute when you look at the last two polls.

Posted by sj | April 13, 2007 12:31 PM

Anonymous:

A margin of error of +/-5% does not mean that anywhere within the range is equally likely. It means that there is 95% (or 90% or 99% or whatever) certainty that the true level of support is within the range with the most likely true level of support being the level reflected in the poll. If Nutter polls at 17% with a margin of error of 5% with a 95% confidence level, there is an approximately 2.5% chance (assuming a bunch of stuff including normal distribution or something) that Nutter has less than 12% support, and 17% true support is more likely than 16% true support.

Nutter could have risen as much as 17% and as little as nothing (i.e. if he was really 5 points above where he really was in the last poll, and 5 below where he really stands in the current poll he would have moved 17 points, from 6 to 23 percent).

While this statement is technically true, the chance of either being true is negligible (2.5% x 2.5% = 0.0625% or a one in 1600 chance). There is also a theoretical possibility (0.00000000001%?) that Queena Bass has 78% true support, and everyone else is tied at 0.1%.

I'm not a professional statistician or economist. I do it solely for the love of the sport. If any of my statements are inaccurate, I welcome correction.

Posted by Anonymous | April 13, 2007 12:50 PM

I don't have too much faith in polls, either. I'm just rubbing it in for all the Knox supporters (workers/volunteers?) who've been telling me I should support Knox because he's ahead in the polls and there's "no way Nutter can win."

Posted by Dave | April 13, 2007 12:59 PM

karen:

Polls don’t measure intensity of support--and Nutter sure has that. He has dedicated volunteers working night and day to elect him.

Posted by karen | April 13, 2007 5:16 PM

Wishful thinking...Nutter's campaign is truly D.O.A.

Posted by Anonymous | April 14, 2007 3:00 PM

PhillyFan:

Nutter is surging among progressive whites, which are growing more skeptical of Knox and Fattah after some early interest. Those votes and a $1 will get him a donut, but I think it's why he's moving up. Brady's followers will go with Knox when Brady finally throws it in...Evans's remaining 300 followers will go into Fattah camp. Too bad, Nutter is the best choice.

Posted by PhillyFan | April 15, 2007 6:26 PM

Wendy:

I feel compelled to say again -- it's a campaign poll, bought and paid for, which doesn't make it wrong -- but it doesn't put it on the same level as an independent poll, either. The next independent poll will be a better barometer.

Posted by Wendy | April 16, 2007 12:19 AM

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