Has everyone taken a moment to read Dan's post about a new poll, done for the business group Pennsylvanians for Effective Government?
Let's just recap. When asked, "If the Democratic Primary for Mayor of Philadelphia were held today, who would you vote for?" the following percentage of those surveyed said they "definitely" or "probably" would vote for:
Knox: 20%
Nutter: 18%
Fattah: 14%
Brady: 09%
Evans: 07%
Wow.
And what I mean by "wow" is, this race is so far from over. Now we have at least one poll showing Nutter with momentum. But you know that other candidates are going to keep fighting too -- Fattah will step in there swinging, Brady will rally his significant troops. Evans says he's is getting some attention for being out front on the Knox attacks (the buns seem to be catching on). And Knox himself? He has a war chest and he's going to use it. And, as I have said before, he's spending his money on a message that voters seem to want to hear.
Philadelphia elections are not simple. It's so not over.
Comments (39)
Unfavorables comparisons from last month:
Fattah jumped from 16% to 25%
Brady jumped from 24% to 32%
Evans jumped from 11% to 17%
Nutter fell from 18% to 16%
Knox jumped from 12% to 21%
Favorables comparisons from last month:
Fattah fell from 52% to 48%
Brady fell from 38% to 36%
Evans fell from 49% to 46%
Nutter jumped from 44% to 58%
Knox fell from 49% to 47%
"Q7b. If undecided, are you leaning towards voting for any of the candidates?"
Fattah 8%
Brady 5%
Evans 2%
Nutter 8%
Knox 5%
Posted by Anonymous | April 26, 2007 7:24 PM
Man, this city may have some hope after all. Just when I'd given up on voters… my faith is coming back.
Posted by EBG | April 26, 2007 9:34 PM
Mike Nutter is a great man who'd make a great Mayor.
Posted by Friedman | April 26, 2007 9:56 PM
I Like Mike!
Posted by Anonymous | April 27, 2007 5:54 AM
what does this mean for the theory that a vote for anyone but Brady is a wasted vote? If Nutter can get a little moer black support he is going to be in good shape. I dont see Knox's numbers getting any better from here on out.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 8:36 AM
I cant wait to see what Jill and other people have to say about this. This is exactly why people shouldnt make predictions with certainty before election day. All of the stuff people have been saying about Nutter not having a chance because her wasnt courting the black vote and Brady being the only legit Knox-beater out there was inaccurate.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 8:49 AM
Michael Nutter for Mayor!
www.nutterformayor.com
Posted by Anonymous | April 27, 2007 9:31 AM
This also goes to show that Nutter's internal poll wasn't a bunch of bunk like some people were trying to claim.
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
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April 27, 2007 9:36 AM
I am curious to see what the Keystone Poll says in a week. I am not convinced that the sampling is properly weighted. I think that Fattah and Brady are under represented in this poll.
Posted by Jill | April 27, 2007 9:36 AM
Also important to point out that PEG is a business-oriented PAC, which may influence their desired conclusion. Notice the similarity to last week's PBJ article.
Posted by Jill | April 27, 2007 9:40 AM
That business bias sure helped Nutter in the last poll...
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
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April 27, 2007 9:47 AM
I'm not familiar enough with the wards to extrapolate whether or not Evans' wards were under-sampled. Can someone follow up with that? He's the one with the biggest geographic "home base."
Posted by FTP | April 27, 2007 9:53 AM
Meaning, is the poll consistent with population, or is it consistent with primary turnout.
Posted by Jill | April 27, 2007 10:15 AM
The late president of the William Penn Foundation Kathy Engebretson wrote shortly before her death in 2005 something we should consider before voting in the primary...
"It's incredible the assets we have here, yet it seems it's only the people who come here from out of town that get it. Never think of this as a second-class city. Just go for it.
"We really need to get our politics fixed. Most places don't have the machines we have, the ward leaders we have, the control being exerted by people who shouldn't be exerting control. The whole system is really backward. And the electorate puts up with it. Their standards are way too low. They don't know enough about what happens in other places. We need to work on civic leadership."
Clearly the only candidate with the intelligence, vision and leadership needed to move Philadelphia forward is Michael Nutter...hopefully his current momentum will carry through to victory on March 15th.
Posted by Bill | April 27, 2007 10:31 AM
There is no bias in the poll just because the group that paid for it is pro-business. Someone gave the black-white breakdown in another post. Fattah has been decreasing in the last two or three polls so I dont think his numbers here are indication of a bad sample. Remember, Nutter wasnt really on TV when the last independent poll was done. Fattah's numbers arent going to increase due to TV ads because he was already well known as has an established base. A lot of people of all races were unfamiliar with Nutter. I think the Knox bashing that Brady's people are preparing to start is only going to help Nutter in the end. He would be wise to leave the Knox attacks to Brady and evans.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 10:48 AM
Jill is a desperate party hack insider who wants to live in the past.
Posted by Anonymous | April 27, 2007 11:05 AM
I have been reading this website daily or semi-daily for the past month or so. It has been very professional in not overtly endorsing any particular candidate.
I came into this primary with an open mind and no favorite, but now I feel pretty strongly in favor of Nutter. Does anyone else think that this forum which examines platforms and policy proposals has provided an impression of Nutter that is more flattering than it is to the other candidates?
I am not suggesting that this site is biased in favor of Nutter. I'm suggesting that TheNextMayor is a different lens to view campaigns through (as opposed to solely canned TV soundbites and ads). The focus on various policy options and their respective levels of merit seems to indicate that Nutter has the most creative and positive agenda.
Posted by Colin | April 27, 2007 11:24 AM
Anonymous is a legend in his own mind.
What these polls show, more than anything else, is who's advertising is getting across that week. Nutter's last ad with his daughter Olivia (which is a great ad by the way) is resonating and peeling off Knox voters. If anything, what Nutter has done is recapture his base. What he has failed to show, is an ability to draw outside that base.
Nutter is the intellectuals darling and will get the Inky endorsement.
What we see is that its a fluid race, that anyone... and I mean anyone can win with effective turnout and GOTV operations if they finish strong.
Who has strong GOTV? Fattah and Brady, and possibly Knox if he buys the support of Local 98.
What does all of this mean? One wild May 15th. Get the coffee on, its going to be a long night. No one is winning in a landslide.
Posted by Jill | April 27, 2007 11:26 AM
Oh, and one more thing. This poll cites a really high undecided figure (27%).
No one, and I mean, no one is out of this. Not even Evans.
Posted by Jill | April 27, 2007 11:35 AM
That isn't what people were saying a day or two ago when Nutter wasn't second in the polls.
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
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April 27, 2007 11:57 AM
Okay, as I stated before, I attended the "Vote for Homes" mayoral forum last night. Taubenberger, Nutter and Fattah were the only ones to show up and Fattah left early. I say show up because they were all SUPER TARDY! :(
As I have stated in past blogs, as a former volunteer on the Nutter campaign. I am very happy that a second poll which I have never heard of before, has him in 2nd place. However, I will wait for next week when legitimate one's i.e. Franklin & Marshall, NBC 10, Quinnapiac etc. release their results. The you current Nutter backers can crow!
Upon, entering the church I noticed that G. R. (I won't give her full name) the head of Nutter volunteer coordination was outside holding Nutter for Mayor signs along with several other PAID staffers. Like I said Nutter has lost a significant amount of his volunteer staff-recently and for good reason. To make a long story shorter--The forum was right up Fattah's alley, protecting the right of disenfranchised homeless, poor, previously incarcerated etc. Fattah has a long history of working with these problems and he let the other 2 candidates know about it Loudly. Jill, it's a good thing Brady and $Knox$ did not show up. They would have been crushed! The host, Elmer Smith really seemed pissed that Evans was a no-show, but he kept his composure. The audience was predominately Black. I know race shouldn't matter here, but it does; sitting in the audience I heard derogatory murmurs about the White candidates absence. Can't say I blame them. Fattah left early but as he departed he took one last shot at Nutter's lack of accomplishment in the Black community. Michael did not respond. Like I said, he just doesn't have the stones! I agree with the above posts, If black voter turnout is low Nutter has a chance. But, if the Fattah campaign can attract the Evans contingent; $knox$ and Nutter will get crushed.
Posted by Son of Anonymous | April 27, 2007 11:57 AM
SoA, I'm really not surprised that you stopped volunteering for Nutter and seem to have switched to Fattah, since it seems to be all about race for you.
Keep following your convictions, though. Fattah sounds like a better candidate for you to support.
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
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April 27, 2007 12:02 PM
Dougherty backing Knox? Doesn’t that go against all that Know stands for? Looks like he’s running scared??
Put the coffee on for May 15? – are you kidding?? May15 will be tighter than a Miami Dade County hanging chad… I just hope we have a candidate out of the courts by the General election in Nov.
Posted by call em as I see em | April 27, 2007 12:15 PM
No, Dave I'm going to keep my promise to Jill and give Brady a look see/hear on KYW Monday morning. Like I said, your innappropriate love for Nutter has blinded you. I'm glad you now realize and acknowledge that I was a disenfranchised member of the Nutter Campaign. And if you read my above post carefully you will see that I state from the opening; the forum was tailored to the platforms that Fattah has always championed. That was not an endorsement for Fattah. Just a fact. By the way Dave, do you have anything positive to say about Evans I mean he would make a decent mayor also. Let's get some fairness from you dude!
Posted by Son of Anonymous | April 27, 2007 12:39 PM
I personally support Nutter because out of all the people running for Mayor he is the only one that seems like he really care about this City you can feel his passion. If the other's like Fattah and Knox paid more attention to their own race instead of keep putting their dirty little hands in other people's races like the City Council race then maybe their numbers would be better. Fattah should stop having people tear down election signs and other stupid stuff his camp is doing then maybe he would be in a better situation loser. Nutter is going to win and if he really want to win he should campain a little more in Dwight Evans district because he would find alot more voters to get pass Knox. You heard it right here frist that Nutter is going to be our next Mayor.
Posted by LAMONT W THOMAS FOR CITY COUNCIL 9TH DISTRICT | April 27, 2007 12:59 PM
Well, I thought Son of Anonymous was making things up, and now I know he is. My wife and I are unpaid volunteers for Nutter's campaign, and attended the Overbrook Farms forum earlier this week. When we asked if help was needed at any of the upcoming forums, the person SOA refers to as G.R. told us that they were covered in terms of the forums because there is so much interest in helping Micheal out. How SOA knows G.R. was with paid staffers is a mystery to me--I have no idea who is paid and who isn't (nor do I care).
That being said, Nutter can always use more volunteers, so if you want to help, call the office and volunteer your time!
One final note--aside from the 4 of us (all volunteers) there to support Nutter, only Fattah had any presense at the Overbrook Farms forum (Knox and Evans didn't show up), and Fattah's two volunteers stood there like posts in front of their literature and as far as I saw said not a word to anyone (one of them did take a phone call). If they were committed to Fattah's cause they certainly did a poor job of telling anyone why.
Posted by Tim | April 27, 2007 1:01 PM
Dear Max,
I answered your attack on my credibility in the "swift boats" blog. Please go back and read it. I'm getting tired of you Nutter paid statffers writing in and pretending to be open minded. I still have yet to read about anything positive for Evans. So let hear it Max and Dave, talk about the good things that Dwight has done for the Northwest part of the city... or SHUT UP!
Posted by Son of Anonymous | April 27, 2007 1:02 PM
Tim, I was at the center city forum last night. PAY ATTENTION! I wasn't at the Overbrook farms event. I was discussing The Vote for Homes event. Finally, if Michael has more than enough volunteers they wouldn't still be soliciting for volunteers like they were at last nights event. Tim, attacking me is not gonna work dude. I have more integrity than all of you clowns put together. And, again let's hear someting positive about the other candidates... say Dwight Evans for example.
Posted by Son of Anonymous | April 27, 2007 1:13 PM
I've made comments, both good and bad, about all the candidates. I'm not sure why I should make comments about a candidate because you tell me to.
I'm also wondering why you keep implying that I'm homosexual. Is that supposed to be an insult?
Posted by Dave![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://blogs.phillynews.com/dailynews/nextmayor/nav-commenters.gif)
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April 27, 2007 1:32 PM
I was paying attention, SOA--it seems that you're not. I was not saying anything about the forum you attended except that your conclusion about Michael's volunteer support seems to me to be inaccurate. You stated that the presence of paid staffers (again, I’m curious as to how you knew that they were paid) was supporting your claim that Michael “has lost a significant amount of his volunteer staff-recently.” I stated that my experience at a different forum suggests your conclusion is flawed; my wife and I--unpaid volunteers both--were told that they had plenty of support for the upcoming forums and that our help in that area wasn’t needed--but that we could help in other ways which we will do.
As for your integrity, you claimed yesterday that Michael was being paid for his Convention Center role and had no response when someone pointed out that wasn’t true—it was an unpaid position (as indicated in this article: http://www.centredaily.com/129/story/73294.html). Where’s the integrity in that? I’m not hiding who I support, and I’m not attacking anyone. I’m just trying to point out situations where people seem to be posting inaccurate information.
You want me to post something positive on Evans, but frankly I can’t. He’s claiming to have done wonderful things to fight crime using outdated crime stats. At the forums I’ve attended he rarely answers the question that is asked, but instead repeats the same things over and over. Oh, and he not only voted in the middle of the night for a pay raise for himself (http://www.philly.com/inquirer/special/pa_pay_raise/How_Area_Lawmakers_Voted_July_7__2005__on_the_Pay_Raise.html), he also hasn’t repaid the money he received as a result (http://www.philly.com/inquirer/special/pa_pay_raise/Pay-Raise_Give-Back.html). A reformer? I don’t think so.
Posted by Tim | April 27, 2007 2:02 PM
Dave,
Your sexuality is irrelevant, the defeat of $knox$ on May 15 is the only agenda I have. Like I said, you current Nutter supporters are trying way too hard PATHETIC!
Posted by Son of Anonymous | April 27, 2007 2:46 PM
why is it getting so hot in here, cool out please....cool out!
Posted by Distant Cousin of Anonymous | April 27, 2007 2:55 PM
Son of Anonymous - I am not aware of any paid Nutter staffers who blog for him...there are so many bloggers that support Nutter on their own that there is no need. As far as saying good things about Evans, I've never heard Nutter folks say anything but good things about Dwight. He's a good guy.
Posted by PhillyDeservesBetter | April 27, 2007 3:20 PM
Nutter is bound to have more support on the internet due to the fact that a certain kind of voter is likely to be on the net talking about the election. It has nothing to do with paid Nutter supporters planting statements to enhance his appeal.
Posted by sj | April 27, 2007 3:25 PM
Have you ever been polled and the candidate you support was not mentioned?
Well it happened to me. On Sunday, April 22nd some research company polled me regarding this mayoral election and didn't mention Dwight Evans in their questions. What's wrong with this picture? Maybe I'm
naive , but aren't 5 candidates running for Mayor? Shouldn't all of them be mentioned for a fair and unbiased poll? After this experience, I now question the validity of any polling results. Anyone else
experiencing this?
Posted by C.Morton | April 27, 2007 3:35 PM
Thank you Sj and C. Morton that is all I have been trying to say.
If you have been to these forums and watched the candidates on T.V. report what you see and hear fairly. And if you have a particular bias against a candidate (as I do) state it.
Nutter is a good guy, and I wish all of his continued supporters well on May 15. All I ask of the rest of you is for a viable option to $knox$. I need one of these other potential candidates to take him to task at length... I'm done talking with the Nutter contingent for now. To the rest of you on this blog thanks for being as honest as you can.
Posted by Son of Anonymous | April 27, 2007 4:34 PM
micheal nutter on poor black people-should be stopped and frisked
Posted by Anonymous | April 27, 2007 10:44 PM
Michael Nutter for Mayor!
www.nutterformayor.com
Posted by Anonymous | April 28, 2007 6:41 AM
Son of Anonymous-
you seem to be saying you support Fattah over Nutter because Nutter's support of a limited use of "Stop and frisk" approach to rounding up illegal guns.
The problem with this is that Fattah supports exactly the same "stop and frisk" policy based on exactly the same studies by Penn's Lawrence Sherman. Its in Fattah's crime plan on his website. Look for yourself. I quote below from an earlier post onthis same topic.
"As a point of correction -
Mike Nutter has gone on the record supporting the limited use of a "stop and frisk" approach to gathering up illegal guns based on the research of Penn's Lawrence Sherman and the successes of a similar program in reducing homicides in Saint Louis, I believe.
Anyway Sherman and ACLU Attn'y Rudovsky debated the idea at length on the following link. Ireccomend anyone curious about the topic give the audio file a listen.
http://www.whyy.org/podcast/121406_100630.mp3
As a point of correction to the idiot who keeps saying that Nutter's support of this approach is a reason to vote for Fattah. Fattah actually supported exactly the same approach and refereced exactly the same studies by Prof. Sherman in his crime plan. Go to the Fattah website and look at it yourself. Admitedly it does not go into as much detail about how Fattah would implement it as Nutter's policy papers do but its defintely there.
Why would you make a policy that both Nutter and Fattah have gone on the record as supporting be a reason to vote for one over the other?"
Posted by seand | April 28, 2007 4:53 PM