Since there's no Clout page tomorrow, as a public service to those who want to continue the debate about the mayoral election, here's our shallow analysis:
No Knox=No Nutter
You had Tom Knox alone on the air pounding the Street administration for three months, defining the election as about reform, ending pay to play, stopping corruption. The TV ads and that message propelled Knox into the lead. But his numbers hit a ceiling and then didn't budge beyond the mid-20s. Anti-Knox attacks and media scrutiny began to soften his support while everyone ignored Nutter. Then Nutter begins his TV ads on March 25, identifying himself as the anti-Street reform guy on Council (and later tearing the tower off City Hall and dumping the hacks out.) He follows that up with the humanizing Olivia ad, which is a hit with African-American women, the largest group of undecideds. It's a one-two punch that neither Brady nor Fattah can match. They can't paint themselves as anti-Street and their respective messages have been overwhelmed by the agenda set by Knox. Game over.
Comments (8)
This doesn't explain how Nutter was able to raise enough money from such a wide variety of individuals to be able to go on TV when he did. And why couldn't Fattah or Brady have taken advantage of Knox's attacks just as well? Because they are insiders?
No, Nutter had a core of support, based on his high profile issues that he was very dogged in pursuing (for me I tagged him the moment he started fighting for the anti-smoking ordinance -- which made bars finally safe for musicians, such as myself).
I think Nutter's support was pretty dedicated, and somehow, when he got on TV, people got a sense of it, together with the word-of-mouth they'd been hearing from people who had met Nutter, and it coalesced into rising polls, and the eventual victory.
It certainly could have happened similarly without Knox.
I still don't understand why Fattah got into the race. I know he says he cares pationately about poverty, but my sense is that he's not really a man of the people. He is ideologically driven without being practical -- an unfortunate combination. Makes him bite off more than he can chew. I sympathize with his goals, but not his methods.
I have no clue about Brady. Don't know him, and have no sense of his motivations. But I lump him and Fattah together. Also I don't feel that Congress is good preparation for executive office. They don't have to be so practical in Congress. They can be more ideological, especially lately.
Nutter was practical, and had the record to prove it. And his record symbolized a reasonably optimistic ideology. Thus, educated folk could get behind him. Once Olivia hit, people who needed a more emotional connection to the candidate could also jump on board. But Olivia would probably have happened without Knox, too.
Of course, what-ifs in history are always just for fun. As far as I know, there's no way to access alternate universes where history may have run differently.
Posted by Plokozhopsky | May 17, 2007 5:14 PM
Bit surprising that the use of a preadolescent to shill for her dad, to humanize him did not leave a bad taste in more mouths! Clever as the ad might have been, a responsible parent should never burdened a child with this kind of responsibility, with no real recourse to have a independent opinion of her own. Especially crass, since Nutter has an adult child (who is never mentioned), who could have shilled for his dad with less implications of power play. Hope Nutter can govern with more class and responsibilty, rather than doing what is expedient at the moment!
Posted by 20/20hindsight | May 17, 2007 8:39 PM
Huh? Bizarre.
Posted by Anonymous | May 17, 2007 9:27 PM
I don't think 20/20's comment is bizarre at all, and I am surprised I didn't hear more of it.
Also, minor point, Nutter did mention and thank his son and his son's mom in his speech.
Another point: Fattah truly believes in fighting poverty. If you talk to him for five minutes, he will dwell on it. I think he really had his heart in that. It's just a tough sell at election time. (He also believes there was a media conspiracy, as John Baer reports today, but that's another matter.)
Finally, here's my $.02. I think Knox softened up an angry voter base to the idea that City Hall could be changed, spending a LOT of money promoting that idea, but Old Philadelphia didn't really know him. Then Nutter emerges as a viable, familiar candidate who can do the same thing, and people say, "I can vote for him!" That, plus his hard-core support, won the day.
Posted by Wendy | May 18, 2007 9:56 AM
Let's not forget the bigest difference between Nutter and Knox- it isn't that one is and insider and one is an outsider- they are both insiders in their own way. What it came down to is Nutter understands and could articulate what this city needed to do to change- and Knox could barely get his stump lines correct.
I can't believe these two men are even comparable- Nutter is above and beyond the guy who was better qualified for the job.
But Knox spending 5 million to get Nutter's reform message out for him- didn't hurt either.
Posted by Liz | May 18, 2007 11:54 AM
"I have no clue about Brady. Don't know him, and have no sense of his motivations. But I lump him and Fattah together." by Plokozhopsky
Then do not comment on Brady!
It is not a requirement that you "lump him with Fattah", because if you knew him - I trust that you would be intelligent enough to recognize that is so much better than Fattah.
Brady had only kind words for Evans, Nutter and Fattah. He respected their efforts and their work -he was always a gentleman! kNOx on the other hand is a vicious, small minded fraud -and I can say that becauise I had the misfortune of working with him under Rendell. Read Philadelphia Mag's article and it is close to the mark on this creep.
Posted by Half a Brain Cell | May 18, 2007 1:43 PM
Fattah and Brady both serve in Congress, therefore I "lump them together" in the sense that they have similar work experiences. I don't think the Congressional experience prepares you very well to be mayor, which requires more executive and managerial skills. I did not mean to imply they are alike in any other way.
Posted by Plokozhopsky | May 18, 2007 1:52 PM
OK - if you met Bob I am sure you would like him. At least Bob does not look upon this city and its residents in a condescending fashion like Fattah. Brady respects the people and is honored to serve -Fattah thinks that he is "entitled" to his office; he is not!
Posted by Half a Brain cell | May 18, 2007 4:37 PM