The Keystone Poll, published in today's Daily News (go buy yours for 60 cents, it's worth at least twice that today) says there is definitely a new leader in the mayor's race:
Nutter: 31 percent
Knox: 21 percent
Fattah: 13 percent
Brady: 11 percent
Evans: 3 percent
Undecided: 21 percent
Pollster Terry Madonna told the Daily News that Nutter's advertising - especially that Olivia ad - seemed to turn the tide.
Interestingly, Nutter is also the top second choice of voters, with 22 percent. (You can delve deep into the poll numbers on our Keystone Poll page, here.)
HOWEVER.
This is important.
Madonna also pointed out that this has been an extremely volatile race, and will continue to be so. One in five voters is still undecided. (Look, folks, time to make up your minds. Check out our revised candidate pages on the main site if you need help.) When the pollsters pushed those undecideds to choose, one in seven remained stubbornly in the "I don't know" camp.
Plus, two in five voters reported they were "still making up their minds" -- even though they've expressed a preference for one candidate. They sound very, very changeable.
Now, I'm no G. Terry Madonna, but I do listen when he and other smart political observers talk, and those people suggest two things:
Unless something crazy happens in the next week, we could have a mighty low voter turnout on Tuesday. (By the way, the pollsters say the data suggests that Knox's vote increases with higher turnout.) (Wendy edited this point to correct.)
And this race is far, far from over, with plenty of room for even a fourth leader to emerge -- or a return of one of the other two guys who were at the top at one point or another.
Please discuss...
Comments (34)
its good to see the one person who has not gone negative is the one now in the lead.
slow and steady, wins the race.
Posted by robert | May 9, 2007 6:29 AM
Nutter up 10%!
Fattah/Brady dropping like stones!
Evans 3%? Come'on Dwight. End it, back Nutter over Knox.
Posted by Anonymous | May 9, 2007 6:29 AM
does a low turnout hurt knox? brady and fattah have parts of the machine, while knox purchased one from local 98....i think a low turnout hurts knox too
Posted by Anonymous | May 9, 2007 7:23 AM
why does low turnout help Knox? Nutter's lead among likely voters is bigger than among respondents as a whole... Doesn't low turnout help Nutter?
Posted by Anonymous | May 9, 2007 8:00 AM
Brady & Fattah will CRUNCH these polls!
Posted by Anonymous | May 9, 2007 8:13 AM
I saw low turnout hurts Brady and Fattah, I see their supporters being the least motivated. I do not think it hurts Nutter at all because he has support from a lot of people who think this election is very important.
Posted by sj | May 9, 2007 8:17 AM
From the PDF format of the poll results... page 4, first paragraph, last sentence:
"Keystone Poll data show Tom Knox's share of the vote increasing as voter turnout increases."
Posted by Kevin | May 9, 2007 8:18 AM
so we need to pray for rain on the 15th then
Posted by Anonymous | May 9, 2007 8:56 AM
Actually... how turnout helps a campaign that has a get out the vote operation and hurts ones that don't.
Nutter doesn't have a get out the vote operation. He better pray it stays sunny.
Knox must be wondering what good these monumental ad buys have done.
Posted by Jill | May 9, 2007 9:22 AM
What a WHOPPER being told by the Dailynews which really shouldn't surprise anyone. Nutter leading by 31 % over all candidates " LMHO ". What was the little boy's name , who told whoppers while his nose grew. Well the Inquirer and Dailynews have nothing on the little stick boy and his description examples.
Producing facing particulars of Nutter is killing the Inquirer and Dailynews since Nutter's ability to raise his own funds is a shrinking non-reaching cause. So the Inquirer and Dailynews in order to increase sales and keep Michael Nutter in a boundary scope on their pages , they've decided on a false supportive call and flawed impressions to make it seem Nutter has all the applause. Funny thing. Both papers have terrible application skills when trying to spread influential indulgencies supporting their candidates.
One of the hardest questions Nutter will answer May 15 and 16 , will be - What Becomes Of A Brokenheart and his answer can only be - DISAPPOINTMENT. Especially when allowing two newspapers to rough you up and take control of your candidacy.
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | May 9, 2007 9:25 AM
Wow, great news to wake up to this morning. I can't figure out how a low voter turnout will affect the race, so I'll leave the guessing to smarter people. I do think, however, that Nutter's base of support may be more solid than the other candidates. People are really sold on his candidacy. Sure, the Nutter Butters (I think I may be one) can be over the top and annoying, but for those of us who rarely get excited about Philly politics (mostly because we're so jaded), Nutter strikes us as a different kind of candidate--a breath of fresh air. He's a foward-leaning candidate, instead of our typical backwards, old school dud candidate that we've become so accustomed to. People want to look forward to a bright future and I think Nutter represents that for a lot of people. I know, most of that is just fluff, but I really think people are looking for a sense of optimism about what's possible and Nutter, for whatever reason, has struck that chord better than anyone in a long time.
Posted by Anonymous | May 9, 2007 9:35 AM
To the person who said Nutter has no get out the vote operation, he was a close third when ballot petition signatures were turned in (he turned in more than Fattah or Knox), and that was before anyone thought he could win. He has also received more endorsements since then, although not from huge organizations (Clean Water Action, Philly for Change, 27th ward, 9th ward, etc). As long as his supporters get out to the polls and volunteer for him on election day to supplement what's already there (which they've been doing), he'll be fine.
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May 9, 2007 9:58 AM
Nutter's also got the Penn Dems. He'll have plenty of people for GOTV. Mostly unpaid folks who are very motivated.
Posted by Friedman | May 9, 2007 10:12 AM
This makes the speculation about tactical voting more interesting. My guess is that Evans voters will actually pull the lever for Nutter once the curtains are closed. Brady voters? I'm not so sure. If it's a white thing, then Knox, but if it's a class thing, then Fattah/Nutter split? Fattah voters, I think, will remain faithful. Knox' support, I think, has probably topped out.
And anyone thinking about the raising of the race card? I think Fattah is blaming the victim. "Well, he started it," says Fattah, pointing at Nutter. I think this damns Fattah for the fraud he is. He's probably whiter than any other black candidate. Sure, he talks a good line, but how many rich white liberals are funding his campaign? And what does this say about his character? If he were Mayor, he'll start blaming everyone else for his actions, instead of taking responsibility. So when his poverty programs fail, he'll blame the feds, the state, business, the housing market -- all the usual suspects, instead of taking responsibility? Is that the kind of mayor we want? I think not!
Posted by Plokozhopsky | May 9, 2007 10:22 AM
Morning Dan been outside yet. Man !! do I feel like going horse-back riding. Oh ! Dan aren't most not every avenue the media drives up questionable.
Dan the poll math is going to become a continuing interest.
Dan description examples are how the little stick-boy told things.
Dan facing particulars - how about facing aspects.
Dan application skills - How about making terrible selections.
Dan false supportive call - Dan how about stretching one's support.
Dan boundary scope - Dan they are keeping their stooge in sight.
Oh ! Dan every election cycle although I smoke and joke with the Inquirer and Dailynews away from politics we always tango and they love my steps.
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | May 9, 2007 10:22 AM
The most significant thing about this poll is that is shows Nutter leading amongst black voters, that is a big change from other polls.
I also found it interesting that Brady's support amongts union households wasnt much better than his overall support. It just proves that union endorsements dont mean much in 2007. Brady is campaigning as if this is 1977, not 2007. The majority of Philadelphians are not in unions and even those who are may not care who their union endorses.
Posted by sj | May 9, 2007 10:39 AM
Jasper,
WHAT?!?
Posted by philly on the rise | May 9, 2007 11:12 AM
One thing that literally jumps out if you go back into the statistical breakdown is that Nutter simply soars with higher educational levels. 43% of those who completed a BA or BS or above support Nutter, everyone else is down in the low teens with college graduates at best. Knox does better comparitively with those with "some college" but apparently if you have diploma you tend to like Nutter. Interesting.
Posted by seand | May 9, 2007 11:28 AM
Philly On The Rise : YEP.
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | May 9, 2007 11:29 AM
Im african american i no,no one voting for nutter because hes for racial profiling,Stop and frisk.
Posted by nassir wallace | May 9, 2007 12:07 PM
Hey Nassir my brother being African American what are the other lacking soul points of Nutter's that irritate you besides his racial profiling.
Jasper...
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | May 9, 2007 12:34 PM
I changed the language regarding turnout.
The poll says, specifically, "Keystone Poll data show Tom Knox’s share of the vote increasing
as voter turnout increases."
But there's a lot flying around about this, so I have called Madonna to ask him more directly about who wins/loses with a low turnout.
Posted by Wendy | May 9, 2007 1:00 PM
Nasir,
Let's be frank. That talk of Michael Nutter being for racial profiling is crap. Chaka, Brady and Evans all have similar anti-crime plans that require an inordinant amount of police to remain in high crime areas. Did you call Mayor Street a Racist for his incredibly expensive and result lacking "Safe Streets" program? I doubt it.
Rather than just listening to the nonsense that Chaka's people are spinning spend some time and think about what is really being offered by Nutter.
Fattah is a one trick pony with his "lease the airport idea". He has failed to sell Philadelphians on that and he is now resorting to name calling and taunting that I thought he was above. I am dissapointed to find out that I was wrong about him.
Posted by Michael P | May 9, 2007 1:58 PM
Wendy the loser of a low-turn out is the person who doesn't vote. Wendy there won't be a low-turn out. Wendy a record will be set all in the name of and for a " Awakening Improvement > Tom Knox.
Jasper...
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | May 9, 2007 1:58 PM
to me there are only 2canidates in this race Knox or Nutter.Fattah has only one agenda Brady is a union buffoon and Evans just isnt getting the support.We as citizens of Philly need a breath of fresh air in our government.The current regime is working so I say elect all new people to all differnt seats and send The good ole boys network packing!
Posted by jim | May 9, 2007 2:14 PM
The current regime isnt imeant isnt working!
Posted by jim | May 9, 2007 2:15 PM
"People who don't carry guns have nothing to fear. "
Ok. It's now official. Alberto Gonzales IS working as an advisor for the Nutter campaign.
Posted by D.E. II | May 9, 2007 2:33 PM
Oh, I am glad Jasper found me ... I thought he was more of a Dan Fan. I was feeling a little left out there.
Posted by Wendy | May 9, 2007 2:43 PM
Wendy those that know me , know that I can be soft.
Wendy I'd never leave you out of what I think could be a improved horizon and rules of stability.
Jas...
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | May 9, 2007 2:50 PM
Nassir,
Time to clean out the Fattah-issued headgear and get a grip of the real issue here. A segment of the African American community is being butchered at an alarming rate, yet you choose to buy into obviously false propaganda spewed by a desperate politician. Do you honestly believe a black man is going to be in favor of racial profiling? Are you really that gullible?
If Nutter is elected and he implements his plan, the VAST majority of stop n' frisks will be conducted on the crack-slinging hoodlums that inhabit our corners 24 hours a day. It's time to step up and protect our children and law-abiding citizens and take back our neighborhoods.
Quit losing sleep for the ciminals and wise-up. Plenty of African Americans will be voting for Nutter on election day.
P.S. Can somebody lend me their Super Decoder Ring so I can understand what Jasper is writing?
Posted by Karma Cop | May 9, 2007 6:41 PM
A new leader in the Mayor's race.
Thank you,
Anybody but Tom Knox!
Posted by Struggle For Truth | May 9, 2007 9:10 PM
nassir wallace,
Im african american and voting for Nutter to stop Tom Knox.
Posted by Stop Tom Knox | May 9, 2007 9:31 PM
This poll is completely unscientific. The demographics are nowhere near representative of the voting population -- More whites than blacks, 18% with a graduate degree, only 35% male.
Posted by Anonymous | May 9, 2007 10:43 PM
The arguments about Tom Knox are the same used against Mayor Bloomberg and Governor Corzine. Results show both have done a great job. Nutter's experience only shows one thing - that he is a bureaucrat.
Examples he added 100 police (a drop in the bucket) yet he supported the drop program which caused 500 police to resign. He brought the smoking ban to Philadelphia, but it took him 6 years because he does not get along with others. Just read the Philly Magazine article which says so or Rendell’s statement about Nutter.
Philly needs zero based budgeting (which it does not do), not the same old approach to things. Nutter is just 15 years of the same old un-creative experience. Does anyone really think he can be a change agent for Philadelphia.
Nutter’s personality is better than Knox’s, but not his skill set or track record.
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May 9, 2007 10:44 PM