Here you go, folks: Total vote counts for each Philadelphia ward, by candidate.
I found this fascinating.
There were some VERY close races in some wards: The 4th in West Philly (Nutter: 1657; Fattah: 1649) the 23rd in the Lower Northeast (Knox: 961; Nutter: 912). And check out the 48th ward in South Philly, where Nutter (26%) Fattah (21%) Knox (25%) and Brady (21%) tried for a four-way split.
In the 34th, ward leader Bob Brady came in third (to Nutter and Fattah) and just 400 or so votes above fourth (who was Knox).
Dwight Evans won his home ward, the 10th, with 45% of the vote.
What else?
Comments (28)
Where did you download this info?
Posted by Anonymous | May 16, 2007 8:30 PM
Looks like Knox did extremely well in the Puerto Rican neighborhoods in North Philly. In fact, the only ward where he broke 60% (the 19th) is right smack in the middle of the "badlands" (Fairhill/Kensington -- not sure of the boundaries).
I wonder if it has something to do with the endorsement from El Hispano (which basically read like they'd watched all his ads and wrote a summary, but I digress).
Nutter and Knox where very close in many (or most?) predominantly white wards of the NE.
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May 16, 2007 10:17 PM
Well, as expected, Nutter did best in the most educated/affluent areas: Mt. Airy/Chestnut Hill, Center City, Art Museum area, and University City.
I find it strange that Knox did best in North Philly, amongst the poorest, least educated in the city. Somehow, the poorest seem to identify more with the richest, I guess. Perhaps it is aspirational? Perhaps it is the notion of chance (the wealthiest and the poorest are most likely to think their situation in life is more due to chance than any actions they have control over). Perhaps they think, 'why not take a chance on him?' Knox also did well in the far Northeast, which I suspect is the white-identified vote, or remnants of racism.
Fattah did best in his stomping grounds -- the area in West Philly where he was a State Rep/Senator. Probably where his organization was strongest, history was remembered the most, although he still did worse than Nutter in all these areas.
The Evans effect is clearly geographical, like Fattah's, having to do with where he came from and where people knew him best.
Brady did best in deep South Philly, Kensington, and then in patches in the further Northeast. The working class white and hispanic vote. People who identified, I guess, with his union background.
It is rare, I believe, that a wonk gets elected. The Olivia effect probably can't be underestimated. If you're smart, you've got to find a way to "humanize" yourself to get elected. Clinton did it. Now Nutter. If you think Bush is secretly smart, his "aw shucks" demeanor achieved the same end.
I think for Nutter to govern well, he will have to pay special attention to how he communicates his ideas. He's got to avoid the pitfalls such as the "stop and frisk" controversy during the election. I was afraid that would derail him. I'd be interested to know if it both helped and hurt him, or if, on balance, it hurt him more than helped. But when he governs, he's got to find ways to explain his policies so that they make sense to people, even though they are based on complicated analyses. If he learns to do that, he could go far, politically.
Posted by Plokozhopsky | May 16, 2007 11:13 PM
Hello!
This is Tommy the Loan Shark & Jim Nixon. Tommy and I were very busy with final exams, so we had to basically put the breaks on things… We never endorsed a candidate (for what that is worth… haha), as it seemed very close to us right through the end.
For the record, we were never part of any campaign. We stand by that 100%.
And again, Mr. Keel’s obnoxious intrusion into our press conference was not why things slowed a bit. We really were very busy.
TO THE GOOD NEWS!!!!
We achieved our goal in keeping Knox out of City Hall (not that we take a large share of credit for that, we were just doing our part). As we have said all along, that was our one and ONLY goal. We congratulate Mr. Nutter, and feel he will make an excellent mayor. Good for you Mike!
If anybody needs to contact us, please e-mail us at: tommytheloanshark@yahoo.com
Mr. Nutter, if you need campaign assistance I’d be happy to help out. My friend who played Tommy is taking a summer abroad (and yes, I am jealous). –Jim
Thanks, it was a great time!
Tommy the Loan Shark and his sidekick Jim Nixon
Posted by Tommy the Loan Shark & Jim Nixon | May 16, 2007 11:54 PM
OK, perhaps some of you with more experience can shed some light on the turnout for me. I'm sorry, but to have the highest turnout in Fox-Chase? The next highest turnout is in Chestnut Hill and Mt Airy. That, I believe. But then, Western South Philly? Then other areas in the central Northeast? Do folks in the Northeast vote at higher rates? Do they register at lower rates? What's going on?
And particularly, Western South Philly (26th Ward)? That smacks of Philly tradition, to me. Lots of dead people voting, I bet. I wonder if the Brady vote is padded, somewhat. Also the Knox vote.
I may need to look at historical turnout rates. This makes little sense to me. Can anyone explain it in an innocent way?
The lowest turnout was in the 7th, North Philly. But the second lowest turnout was in the 27th -- University City? What the hell? Maybe it's because all the students have left for summer vacation? Or only Nutter supporters turned out, and no one else was excited enough to vote?
I know in my division, in the 27th, one of the machines was out for a while, supposedly due to someone trying to write in. Aside from the weird thought that someone would try to write-in for any position in this race, could that have reduced the vote? Did the votes get reported correctly from that machine?
Sorry, but I find this very suspicious. Am I alone? Are there any turnout experts out there?
Posted by Plokozhopsky | May 16, 2007 11:55 PM
We are especially happy that in Knox failing, we will not see Janie Blackwell, John Dougherty, Frank Keel, or Mr. Youngblood get any grip on City Hall! I guess loosing is what he gets for associating with the bottom of the barrel...
We are also thrilled that all that money could not buy City Hall!!!! I cannot imagine spending over $10,000,000.00 and countless hours for nothing...
Congratulations to Mr. Fattah, Mr. Brady, and Mr. Evans! You all ran very solid issue-based campaigns. Compared to the norm, it was very enjoyable and classy!
Posted by Tommy the Loan Shark & Jim Nixon | May 17, 2007 12:32 AM
I'm proud that my home ward of the 9th was Nutter's best ward in the city.
Posted by John | May 17, 2007 2:43 AM
I'm at the very least happy that the ward I'm living in, and the wards I regard as home turf, all voted the same way I did, while I'm hoping it was for the same reasons. With so much ambiguity regarding where each of the candidates stood there's no clearcut evidence of any sort of a mandate as of yet. We all want change, but change how? My position is that I want to see what's right about Philadelphia -- NE Philly's Burholme Park being an excellent example -- being expanded on more. And a major rollback on what's wrong with the city, such as runaway cancer centers seeking to run ripshod over what's upstanding and beautiful. But for others, the desired change is the exaxt opposite. And right now anybody have the slightest clue which change Nutter will be spearheading if he becomes the next mayor? For I think right now everyone is seeing what they want to see. And Nutter's leaving us all guessing, reminiscent of when Bush Jr. first entered the White House, or the new Pope was appointed. For I don't think anybody knows yet what Nutter's going to do, good or bad. Probably even Nutter himself doesn't know yet...
Posted by Steve W. | May 17, 2007 3:56 AM
The breakdown shows that whites in the northeast and south are still very reluctant to vote for a black candidate. With support for the two white candidates in the 70s% in the NE and 80% in wards 26 and 39. I'm sure this is a lot better than in previous hotly contested races, but there's still a long way to go.
Posted by Forrest Yerkes | May 17, 2007 8:34 AM
And talk about holy crap! From an article in today's Daily News:
"In the 1968 presidential election, the 66th ward in far Northeast Philadelphia voted for third-party candidate George Wallace, the former segregationist governor of Alabama."
Forget Frank Rizzo. Nixon wasn't good enough for them. No, they went for an unreconstructed George Wallace! Absolutely disgraceful.
Posted by Forrest Yerkes | May 17, 2007 8:40 AM
I don't think the mayor needs to take an all-or-nothing stand on issues such as whether or not cancer centers can expand...
Posted by Anonymous | May 17, 2007 8:45 AM
Yo, Jas...Jasper. Your boy didn't do so well....
Posted by Anonymous | May 17, 2007 9:19 AM
The info comes from the City Commissioners.
Posted by Wendy | May 17, 2007 9:25 AM
Two things stood out:
1) The "favorite" Fattah, defeated Nutter in zero districts. ZERO! wow
2) I'm not yet convinced that the racial voting is completely dead (not sure it ever will be either....). With Nutter, you had a unique candidate who has cross-over appeal. But if you look at looking at the numbers of the next 3 in SE Philly and the NE, vs. West Philly, there's still quite a trend.
Posted by Philly Moderate | May 17, 2007 9:27 AM
All of those northeast racists moved to the suburbs...Happy trails.
Posted by Fante | May 17, 2007 9:35 AM
I checked into the high turnout in the 26th (South Philly) and the 63rd (Fox Chase) for Plokozhopsky, reaching out to someone who follows voting patterns very closely. Here's his take:
First, remember that we are dealing only with Democratic registered voters, and both those wards have a strong Republican contingent (especially the 63rd), so the pool is not the whole ward. But you knew that.
He said the 26th, which is led by Register of Wills Ron Donatucci, is a well-organized ward where Brady's effort would have been powerful (and Brady did win that ward). Also, Donatucci was running (he won nomination) and would have been working his own ward hard to get out the vote.
The 63rd is more puzzling. It is true that turnout goes up with income, and that's a well-off part of the city. Also, there was a traffic court candidate running from that area, Frederick Mari, who was working hard to get votes out. (Mari also won nomination.)
Posted by Wendy | May 17, 2007 10:10 AM
When will Frank Keel vanish to the suburbs where he lives?
Posted by Anonymous | May 17, 2007 12:08 PM
Well... maybe. Although half the 26th is the former Girard Estates. Even though that is all rebuilt, I don't know how many people live there now, nor how many are registered, but I have to guess that if they are registered, they would be Democrats.
I am still suspicious about the turnout for Dems in the 26th. The Northeast seems to have generally high turnout, so the 63rd doesn't bother me as much.
But perhaps I am too prejudiced about South Philly. Perhaps they do have a history of high voter turnout and good strong organization. I'll ask a friend who lives there what he thinks. But Grays Ferry and Point Breeze, just to the north of the 26th, have around 32% turnout. The other half of South Philly (the 39th) had 45% turnout. Close to the 50% of the 26th. That lends credence to the organization argument.
Total Democratic registration in the 26th is in the lower third of all the wards in the city. But the 39th has the third highest democratic registration.
Lower population, recent big changes in real estate, and fewer democrats in the 26th, perhaps they are easier to organize and get to the polls.
I'd still feel better if someone took a closer look down there.
Posted by Plokozhopsky | May 17, 2007 12:42 PM
One other thing that makes me less suspicious. Ward 21, Manyunk/Roxborough, has a somewhat similar type of population to South Philly, and they also had very high turnout -- higher than the 26th, high democratic registration, but they went for Nutter.
How do they achieve these turnout rates?
Posted by Plokozhopsky | May 17, 2007 1:09 PM
Because the population there is much smarter and more educated.
Posted by Anonymous | May 17, 2007 2:05 PM
I am just glad BBB didn't win.
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