Admit it: You were surprised at the margin of Michael Nutter's victory in the primary.
Even among those of you who thought he'd win -- the polls were pointing in that direction, at the end -- did you really think he'd nab 36.6 percent of the vote, while the next-highest voter getter, Tom Knox, managed 24.6 percent? And that Nutter would win wards all over the city?
Apparently, the doubters were in good company -- the Nutter campaign was surprised by the margin too: "We internally saw how we could win, but we thought he'd have to dig out a three- or four-point lead," says Nutter adviser Dick Hayden in a revealing story in today's Daily News.
The story is about how the campaign bucked conventional wisdom in its successful effort. And it's very interesting. Olivia -- the star of the commercial that seemingly turned the tide -- turns out to be a small (if telegenic and generally charming) part of a longer trudge to the top that began back when Nutter quit City Council.
Along the way, the techniques drew derision from what Catherine calls "local political know-it-alls."
Admit it -- you wondered, too, when Nutter commercials stayed resolutely off the air or the candidate said he was counting on volunteers for the get out the vote effort. Well, the proof is in the official vote count, and Philadelphia elections don't always run by yesterday's patterns.
Comments (65)
I have no intentions on busting anyone's Nutter dream but his campaign victory is being taken as such a ornament sensation that the sight of Nutter is becoming boring. How about lets get through the summer and allow approaching judgements be what they will. Reality. There won't be affluent audiences pampering him for the next ( 4 ) years.
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | June 6, 2007 9:32 AM
I'm happy that Nutter won. Now I'm focusing on replacing Jack Kelly with David Oh on city council.
Posted by Anonymous | June 6, 2007 11:23 AM
P.S. This article is a classic example of the "that's how things are done here. There's no other way" mentality in Philadelphia. Another example is Timony and the police dept.
We need to start trying things that work, instead of "the way it's done here" soon. It's pretty obvious that the way things have been done hasn't been working so well.
Posted by Anonymous | June 6, 2007 11:50 AM
Wendy, sorry it has taken me so long to get back to you but going on vacation left me with a backlog of work, but I seem to have caught up for now, so I will be a more active participant in this blog. Incidentally, Dan, I'm still a little perturbed at you for your jabs at me in your what they said blog... I hope your back from vacation big boy! Anyway, Wendy, a week or so when I casually mentioned that the Nutter camp knew in advance that they were going to get the D.N. and Inky endorsements and thus these were the only print media outlets that his campaign invested money in. Wendy, you replied that the fix was not in. My question coming off of Max Baer's column several weeks ago; if the columnists at the Inky and D.N. have no control over whom the editors chose for mayor, the how do you know for certain that the Nutter camp was not informed waaaaay in advance of their selection? (Disclaimer here) I am good friends with one of the Editors and I know for a fact he did not vote for Nutter which is why I have not attacked the editorial boards of both papers. Michael was not a unanimous choice, that is certain. But again as I stated before, The only major print outlets that Michael poured money into, were the only ones to reciprocate. Michael's campaign did not spend one cent on black owned print or radio media. All the other candidates did to some extent. And now I'm getting e-mails from the Nutter campaign about a survey collaboration with the Daily News???? Does Taubenberger have this same hook-up with you guys??? Dan, are you back from da shore?
Posted by Son of Anonymous | June 6, 2007 1:55 PM
Nutter interviewed for the job and was the best applicant. That's my conclusion, but here's my theory: this may have been the most visible "hiring" process we've ever gone through in Philadelphia, with all of the forums (and related podcasts) in addition to the usual editorial board candidate review. But when you think about the kind of folks who go to forums, listen to podcasts, and sit on editorial boards, they tend to be astute, plugged in folks. These are the people who interviewed Nutter and decided we should hire him. These decision-leaders brought other folks with them and before you know it, we had the overwhelming Nutter victory. At the end of the day, we got the best possible result and "hired" the right person for the job.
Posted by Sock Puppet | June 6, 2007 2:26 PM
SoA - The DN editorial board picks the endorsement, that endorsement decision is made in a meeting -- as you say, with a vote -- and then the decision is announced a few days, at most, after the vote. And that's how it's done. Sorry, no consideration for ad spending, and no conspiracy.
Posted by Wendy | June 6, 2007 3:56 PM
Wendy, I think you are misinterpreting what I said above. I was agreeing with you. The fact that Nutter got both endorsements... WAS THE MOST POORLY KEPT SECRET of the primary. That is why none of the other candidates bothered to spend coin with your employer. Sorry, if you misread it another way. By the way, you still sidestepped my query. If you and your colleagues have no say in the editorial boards mayoral selection... your above closing remark cannot be valid. Particularly, since your employment at the Daily News places a slight taint on your perceived objectivity... yes! Finally, you were correct in one sense. There was very little consideration for ad spending in this primary. By choosing a candidate week(s) before the last of the televised debates and the May 15 election. You guys cost yourselves $thousands of dollars in Ads. I know Knox would have personally spent a small fortune with you guys in the last week of the election. This is just good business practice. "Never show your winning hand until everybody places their cash on the table." Tierney needs to have a talk with you people about maximizing profits! By the way Jasper Z. you were right. Today's Daily News lovefest with Nutter is waaaaay to creeepy!
Posted by Son of Anonymous | June 6, 2007 5:49 PM
With this now being summer, it's the best possible time to discuss what I feel to be the number one thing discouraging quality people from making any strong commitments to this city. And what might be surprising, what is most deterring quality people away from committing toward this city has nothing at all to do with anything about this city intrinsically. Rather, it's the way the Jersey Shore has become and has been perpetuated the past 20 years or so.
Think about it. Of the northeastern U.S.'s most prominant rustbelt cities none has been hit so hard as Philadelphia has. In fact, most of the N.E. U.S.'s other rustbelt cities have weathered very well, whether we're talking Boston, New York or Baltimore. But with that said, look at each of those cities' seashore counterparts -- Cape Cod for Boston, Long Island for New York, and Eastern Shore for Baltimore. All of these seashore counterparts are being run far superior to how Philadelphia's is. Maybe it's because each is within the same state as where the city is, I don't know. But Philadelphia and its seashore counterpart -- located in a separate state -- could not possibly be more viciously at odds with one another, while it's been that way solidly for 20 years straight now.
And anyone who thinks this hasn't caused quality people to up and pull out of this city completely is totally mistaken. Back in the past, when the Jersey Shore was run a thousand times better, it made for a powerful incentive for quality people to want to reside in Philadelphia, perhaps best exemplified by the Kellys. But when the Jersey Shore changed, primarily due to when Atlantic City went the way of casinos, Philadelphia -- and through little to no fault of its own -- lost a great deal of its appeal as a great place to live.
In brief, it was a victim of its number one vacation outlet being in a totally separate state.
What is Philadelphia now doing to try to change this? Unable to amend the way the Jersey Shore has become (since it is in a totally separate state), two things: 1) Bring casinos to here so that Philadelphians no longer have to go to South Jersey to gamble; and 2) Open up its scenic Delaware River waterfront once more, and to the point that eventually it in itself will be very resort-like. But this effort is being thwarted by none other than, yep, you guessed it, South Jersey itself. For South Jersey these days very much likes the humiliating position it has Philadelphia in, and it doesn't want to lose that. It's enjoyed this sadistic relationship it's had with Philadelphia for 20 years straight now, and it wants to keep it "end of story."
Meaning, can Philadelphia ever hope to become the "next great city" without royally kicking South Jersey's ass first? I know, I know, Philadelphia "rightfully" can't because the Jersey Shore is all in a totally separate state. But sometimes you have to look to the higher level of what rightfully means and forget all manmade laws and the superficial boundaries set by man.
Otherwise, Michael Nutter's mayorality, assuming he does become our city's next mayor, will just constitute the last smokestack of an assuredly sinking Titanic. And with now and summer being here not the best time to say it, I don't know when.
Posted by Steve W. | June 7, 2007 12:47 AM
To answer Wendy’s question: yes, I was surprised at the margin of Michael Nutter's victory in the primary.
When I first started volunteering for the campaign I knew it was a long shot. It was tough organizing fundraisers at homes of friends and colleagues last Fall.
From an email I got from a politically savvy friend I invited to an event last January:
Brady vs Fattah = "clash of the Titan's"
Nutter, Knox, Evans et.al. are wasting their time, qualified as they may or may not be.
But interactions with Nutter’s first rate staff and the other enthusiastic, committed volunteers gave me hope. Any candidate who could attract volunteers like these folks could make it.
The DN article focused on campaign’s decision to use volunteers rather than paid workers for GOTV efforts-—clearly a winning strategy. But this is an option open only to candidates with the track record, the personal qualities which will attract large numbers of talented, committed volunteers.
So the volunteers helped keep hope alive until the TV ads. (I was among the volunteers frustrated by campaign’s decision to hold off on TV ads. I remember all the grumbling: Why are we working so hard to raise money for Michael when he won’t use it??)
Well, Oxman and campaign staff clearly knew what they were doing and the strategy of holding off on TV until people were beginning to focus on the race paid off.
I thought Nutter was going to win after the Olivia ad. It was obvious from comments from friends and colleagues that the ad helped with a key demographic group –older African American women, a group which votes in high numbers.
When Nutter started going up in the polls all those folks who thought he was the best candidate, but couldn’t possibly win, began to rethink their support for other candidates and decided go with the guy they thought was the best. By late April I knew he was going to win, but sure didn’t expect 12%.
Posted by karen | June 7, 2007 9:30 AM
Daily News: Start bashing Nutter now or you'll be guilty of bias! Sending a positive message to Philadelphians is WRONG WRONG WRONG!!! I'll sue you in court for racism by proxy against the other candidates!
P.S. I'm a sore loser!
Posted by My candidate didn't win! | June 7, 2007 9:40 AM
I agree with you " My candidate didn't win " and "SOA " , the lovefest of achievement support for Nutter is a bit bias in content and portent. What's suppose to be up. Is it selling Nutter at the marketplace under unintended utterances.
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | June 7, 2007 11:54 AM
Dan P. You are on the mint > MCDW.
Posted by Jasper Zeigler Jr | June 7, 2007 2:04 PM
Yes, sarcastic is correct.
BTW, if the candidate the media endorses wins, then there's definitely a conspiracy of some sort because that NEVER can happen. Furthermore, the media NEVER endorses the best candidate, no matter how much scrutiny the candidates and their position on the issues get so, being by definition the worst choice, the media endorsed candidate doesn't deserve to win.
P.S. Still being sarcastic.
Posted by MCDW | June 7, 2007 3:56 PM
Dan,
There was an ideal in the way the Jersey Shore was run before which is totally missing today, which I do believe is a major reason why we don't have quality type people such as the Kellys, or lower income quality people for that matter, wishing to make Philadelphia their home today. For the Jersey Shore as it's being run today is a total joke. But when the Jersey Shore was run at its best, yes, you definitely could compare it to Cape Cod, the Hamptons or what have you. And Philadelphia benefitted from this tremendously as a result. But today the Jersey Shore is the butt of jokes (rightfully so), Philadelphia today is the butt of jokes (rightfully so), and is there a correlation? Absolutely. But so long as the rest of the country feels it can get by with both the Jersey Shore and Philadelphia being reduced to jokes nothing's going to change. One important thing to note, though, as such, neither the Jersey Shore or Philadelphia in their current states can be classified as positive contributers to society over all in any way. Rather, they both are major drains now, which surprises me the rest of the U.S. is so willing to tolerate. If not for the major draining effect I could understand that. But when you look at how both the Jersey Shore and Philadelphia drain the rest of the country without ever giving anything back, other than just additional draining, you have to wonder, boy, why is the rest of the country so willingly putting up with this?
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