Deep Sixer

Sixers win the series. Flip Saunders is an inflexible dunderhead. LouWill will get hot in the 4th quarter, scoring basket after basket, and Flip's just gonna stand pat and not do antyhing about it. Wanna talk playoff experience? As the Minnesota Timberwolves coach, he gained loads of "experience" in how to lose in the first round.

Inexplicably, Jason Smith plays really well against Detroit, when you think he'd stink against their tough big guys. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 8.5pts and 9.3rebs against them. Again, back to Flip's ineptitude, if Mo had Flip's big guys, this would never happen.

I'll keep digging...

No way, Jose!
I don think the 6ers win two (I pray they take the series but I doubt it’ll happen).

Game1 = (Detroit)
I think the 6ers get overwhelmed (between Detroit’s coming in so rested and their strong play, combined with the nervous and over-zealous youth of the 6ers).

Game2 = (6ers) settle down and start to believe they can win (and they do).

Game3 = (6ers) win again albeit a VERY CLOSE game.

Game4 = (Detroit)’s playoff exp. starts to show and 6ers and get overconfident and reckless.

Game5 = (Detroit)
Game6 = (Detroit)

…just my two cents…

SIXERS CAN TAKE THE CITY! I would be shook if they don't win at least two games, one at home and one on the road.

It would be over quickly if we used the same starting lineup over an extended period of time. Rip hamilton is 6'7, green 6'4, Prince 6'10, Iggy 6'6, the sixers are going to have to put Iggy on Rip and Thad on Prince. If the sixers can get their back court or front court in foul trouble and force them to use their bench, Sixers will have a chance. I would like to see More shots for Miller and Iggy, with less minutes. Get into Rasheed's head, we need him to lose focus! Don't let them walk the ball up the court, double team billups, whoever gets hot for detriot double team that person, don't let one player pile up points. Since detriot play a half court game, Sixers main person to stop is billups. Sixers can't have billups setting up the half court offensive. The guards must cherry pick!

"I don think the 6ers win two..."

I meant to say...
"I DO think the 6ers win two..."

also, I should eloborate on...
Game5 = (Detroit) 6ers start to believe they are a jump shooting team and die by the jump shot. (they loose big).

Game5 = (Detroit) 6ers settle down again but too little, too late. They loose a close one.

...it's have a feeling...

Oh...that last one should be "Game6".

I'm at work and rushing to hurry and get off-line.

Marc,
The reason the Sixers are generating little support to upset the Pistons is because nobody had the Sixers making the playoffs this year. The key to the series is to disrupt that boring walk it up the court ball that the boring Pistons do so well. Press, Press, Press some more and run the Pistons' legs off. The Sixers have a shot, especially if they can make their free throws. I like the Sixers in Six or Seven. I feel the hostile environment in Philly will have the veterans of the Pistons pressing, and experiencing long shooting droughts, while the Sixers Run, Lob, and Dunk. Have to say Marc, nice piece of "get a reaction" journalism, however really disappointed in your lack of faith in the team you have covered all year.
Jason-Los Angeles

I can easily see at least two wins for the Sixers. The Sixers played best this year with their backs to the wall. They lost that edge after clinching, but the intensity of the playoffs should bring it back. It's all about steals for them. If they are active, and get steals the break will come. Detroit does have size, but the Sixers have speed.

Marc, will you be writing about the potential of moving Dre and Thad to SG and SF respectively? Your starting lineup run down makes the case quite well, if so.

I dont claim to know the future, i'll only assert as i have before that we have a decent shot (if I had to quantify, i'd say in the neighborhood of 40%) of winning this series IF and only IF they do shift their lineup to match up better with detroit's starting 5. If not, then i have to agree with the mainstream media view that they dont have much of a shot.

Marc, like Morty i'd be interested to see you address this directly. Its not like we're pulling the idea out of thin air, the shift has been tried against detroit already this year(albiet out of necessity) and that was what i would consider one of the best wins of the season. Its also one of the few points raised all year on this blog that we all seem to agree on (the only other one i can think of is that we need a scoring PF). If you dont think changing the lineup is a good idea, how come? Im not trying to put you on the spot, play the know it all or anything, im just curious what your logic on this is.

Marc:

Also not trying you on the spot either, but given the gaping discrepancy at SG, and the fact that Prince could potentially cancel out Dre, it might be worth a full article, no?

I've said it before and I'll say it again; the only way to match up with the Pistons' starting five is to start Iguodala at the 2 and Thad at the 3. Dre matches up better with Rip than Tayshaun, and Thad (despite his inexperience) is probably the most ideal match-up against Tayshaun in the whole league. And it wouldn't be hard for the players. Iguodala has spent most of his pro time at the 2, and Thad is a natural 3.

Something else that I just noticed that I think would be good to keep in mind for Sixers fans going forward; according to the statistics at http://82games.com , Dalembert is by far our best crunch-time performer. In the last 5 minutes of close games, he shoots 63% and puts up per/48 minute averages of 16.7 points, 14.7 boards, and 4.4 blocked shots. And with only 2 minutes left, he shoots 7% better than the next closest Sixer (Iguodala). If we plan on being successful in tight playoff games, Sam may end up being our most important player. Just a thought.

Following on noah's 82games.com reference, here's something interesting about Detroit's Won-Lost profile - their lowest winning percentage is against teams that are great rebounders, at 55%. The Sixers happen to be one of the best rebounding teams in the league...

Can the Sixers take this series?

ABSOLUTELY!!!

Realisticly, they're done in 5.

Marc and Willie G are bowling buddies, don't expect him to start championing for the correct line-up. Love the blog though, Thanks Marc for giving us sixers fans a place to vent.

It could happen:
The Sixers can shock the World and the Pistons by stealing Game 1, but Detroit won't be taken off gaurd in Game 2.
Series tied 1-1.
Detriot takes game 3 to win back home court advantage.
Detroit 2-1.
Detroit slacks after winning back home court advantage and the Sixers win game 4.
Tied 2-2.
Detroit goes all out and takes game 5 at home.
Detroit 3-2.
Tired from going all out in game 5, Detroit gives one away to the Sixers at home in game 6.
Series tied 3-3.
Detroit gets frustrated by this team that won't go away and the Sixers fly high on confidence taking the Series in game 7, going to the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals! But in 2008, they lose in 5.

Sixerzguy:

Nice digging, once again.

Listened to that Bill Simmons podcast you put me onto, and predicting the Sixers' series he said that he liked the Sixers more than most "experts," and even would like them to take it to 7 except for Willie G. A "below average" player and "one player short" he called Green and the Sixers. So he picked Pistons in 6.

Jumpin':

Disclaimer for Jumpin' Johnny Green: not a comment on Willie as a person, only as a professional basketball player.

Morty - Man, even The Sports Guy is doggin on Willie?! That hurts...almost as much as watching him play.

beating the pistons in the playoffs will be a monumental task. you're talking about a pistons team that has years of playoff experience, against a team that doesn't have much at all. i would never count the 6ers out though(being the DIE HARD fan that i am). if they can stand up to the pressure of playoff basketball and all that includes it, they can lose in 6 games, maybe. if they do better than that then they are on their way to being title contenders.

Morty -- I listened to the Bill Simmons podcast too, and he was a lot harsher than you portray on Green. He called Green the worst starter for any playoff team and said that if the Sixer had "even an average" shooting guard, he would have picked the series to go seven. (By the way, in Simmons' MVP rankings, he had Iguodala at 14th and Miller at 21st.) If I were to rank starting off guards in the NBA this year, I'd be hard-pressed to think of five that were worse than Willie, though Larry Hughes comes to mind ...

I'll take the Sixers in 7. If they make it that far, it means they'll have gotten past the deer-in-the-headlights phase. There are some parallels between this series and last year's Mavs-Warriors and Heat-Bulls series (younger, more athletic team taking out older, more experienced team). Of course, the Sixers could play with the deer-in-headlights look all series and get swept, but at worst I get my pick wrong and I'm still hiding behind a pseudonym ;-)

Not to be a Negadelphian but if the Sixers win this series it should go down as one of the all time great stories in Philadelphia history.

A six game series would be a success. Even a series as competitive as the one three years ago...

I love the Sixers. I would love to eat my words. But I'm thinking a sweep because of how inconsistent they were the last 10 games.

Statman:

The "average" SG argument is the exact reason Dre should be the starting SG. He would be an "above average" SG. I also think the Thad would be, at a minimum, an "average" SF. Thus you've covered the hole, and now PF is our only below average position. That is obviously ES' thinking, and for the life of me I can't understand why he has not dictated that to Mo.

If the nets could trade jason collins and his miserable contract then maybe we have a chance to get somehow get rid of willie and his 24 minutes of snarfing crap

The Greek:

I think is is possible. If we use our cap room in a trade rather than signing, and we acquire a player above that 10 mil, than we will need to send back some salary to make the numbers work. Other than Evans and Green, none of our other players make enough to accomplish such a hypothetical trade. Say 10 mil in cap space + Green for Lamar Odom. If we are sending an instant 10 mil cap space to some team (no need to wait on an expiring contract or pay a retired Keith Van Horn,) I think it would be fair to dump a longer term contract on them in exchange.

Besides, Willie is still young and coming off his best NBA season. Sky's the limit for him!

Guys, I have wanted the linreup change for a while but Mo seems set on it the way it is. If he goes to the big lineup a lot of minutes and if Willie starts games hot like he sometimes does, it could be okay. I think it will be a 6 or 7 game series, the key being how we play the first game. Saw a stat that said the winner of the first game wins over 80% of these series, lets shock them in game #1.

By the way, I think Willie and our cap room or Jason, Booth and our cap room gets Z. Randolph. Walsh wants to clear capspace and with Lee and J.Smith as his perimeter type 4!s it allows Curry to operate in the post. But if we have to give up Jason I would like a future #1 or #2 in return.

suede:

We've got to hope for the Detroit TV bounce to Willie's game! That's not nothing, I might put some $ down on that.

By the way, I respect both your and Datruth's opinions, but I just don't like the idea of Randolph. He seems destined to always be a good numbers on a bad team type of player.

I'm not necessarily calling for a 76ers series win, but could see them go 6 or 7 with the Pistons. The games Detroit beat us in this year were before the Sixers started coming together and playing well. that being said, I really don't see a blow out in any of these games.

SFW

You make some very valid points especially about how after the first couple of picks its all just a crapshoot and you really dont know until after you draft them to know what you have. I respect absolutely everything you said and the concise points you highlighted. Love does have a post game and he is a good passer maybe great for a big. But my concern was twofold..will we stay in the halfcourt long enough to utilize what he brings to the table for him to be effective for our team..And..The celebrated collegeian syndrome. The hype machine brought us Stackhouse in 95. He looked like a animal dunking on everybody in college. But he couldnt do the same things in the pros and his eventual adjustment the pro game made him look quite average.. at times mediocre taking 30 shots to score 20 points and he no longer was that great rebounder he was in college. Then I look at guys we could have had like rasheed wallace and garnett. I guess Oliver Miller wasnt bad those first 2 years with Barkley..Great points.

Sixersguy

I think maybe we can compare Love to Barkley in that Chuck had a really good post arsenal later in his career that didnt involve alot of jumping. Just knowing how to feel the defender with his back to the basket and being able to finish with that knowledge instead of relying on raw power like he did when he was younger. And they both are pretty BIG. lol But yeah man as far as comparisons thats what I came up with.

Hugh

Point taken its very rare you get EVERYTHING you are looking for out of the slot we are drafting at. If you can grab the few things you need on your team at the spot we are picking its not a complete loss. We arent looking for ONE player to be our everything just looking to fill in some missing spaces. Of course race doesnt matter when it comes to effective TEAM play but sometimes people are blinded by things that have nothing to do with the final product of team. I totally agree it shouldnt matter.

Marc

I'm going on record right now and saying that the Sixers will win this series 4-2 and if the refs dont like us 7 games. Detroit is completely outmatched because of the style that they play against our style. And I predict we will be at the foulline the majority of the series. They wont be able to overcome what we do. And we will be the story of the playoffs during this first series. Call me out if I'm wrong. If not give me credit for being right. GOODLUCK! GO SIXERS!!!!!!!!!!

"Philly in 6"-Billy King.
I concur.

Zeru, appreciate your response. I guess at this point Adam Morrison(injury?) & the ex-Duke shooting guard would be overhyped collegians whose games haven't translated to the pros. Love's passing game may just generate a couple of fast break opportunities a game and I can see him hitting a 3 in the secondary break. Carlos Boozer is the closest I can see to his game but more inside than out. We'll see what happens.

Regarding the series. The pistons have looked much older to me this year which I previously thought would be our major advantage; However, The pistons seem to have been resting for 2 weeks AND the playoff schedule has provided plenty of layoff time in this first round. Also, the sixers change in the rotation to increase A. Millers, TYoungs and Sammy's minutes at seasons end may actually work against us in this series. Most of the season Iggy was the only player getting more than 38 minutes a game. That seemed to change over the past couple weeks. I don't think our legs will be any fresher than theirs AND we won't be taken lightly either.
Our best chance is if we try some different approach(rotation change, defensive/Offensive strategy) and force Flip Saunders to actually coach.

Morty, It would be a risk [Randolph], but it seems the 3 top guys all have a risk involved. Randolph played on a 50 win team and is 3 years younger than Brand and 5 years younger than Jamison.Hate to get a 3 year fix, would like a core of stars in the mid to late 20!s age wise and do what the Pistons have done. Sheed can be a knuckelhead at times but with character guys around him, they seem to deal with it. I expect Det. to get a young backup center in the draft and have a young player at each position for the future, just like the great Celtic teams always did. I hope we emulate them. Pistons in 7 in a WAR!!!!

Reggie and Sam need to be PHYSICAL against 'sheed...if they can piss him off we stand a much better chance, especially if he gets ejected or gives us late free throws. We need to keep our cool and do our thing. If you frustrate the Pistons once, it's very easy for them to get into a sloppy groove. The sixers need to be physical (I can't say it enough!), they need to SPRINT, and they need to keep levelheaded, especially at the ends of games. The Pistons are bigger, stronger, deeper, and more experienced. The sixers have to make them collapse on themselves by being relentless and keeping their cool.

Do I think this could happen? Sure, I'd give them a fighting chance. But with the frustrating way they have been playing at the end of the year I just don't see the discipline. 4-1 Pistons.

Does anyone really think Zack Randolph will ever be a seventy sixer? You will be strengthing a major rival AND bringing questionable character to the team. Don't think the program is moving in that direction.

sfw, Boozer is more athletic than Kevin Love, so he can get his shots off more easily, but Kevin Love has the greater skill set - agree/disagree? But again, Boozer needed some time, wasn't an impact guy right away.

Detroit played Orlando in the first round last year, and the Magic were playoff newcomers just like us. In Game 1, the main reason Detroit won was because the Magic didn't make their free throws: 18-36 combined, that's 50%. Dwight Howard went 3-11. The final score was 100-92, so if Orlando makes 9 more free throws, they win, so their free throw shooting would've been 27-36, a 75% clip. The Sixers shoot at a 70% clip, which wouldn't be enough, but this year's Sixers take care of the ball better than last year's Magic (Jameer Nelson at the point), so that puts a few more points in the Sixers' favor.

But not all is rosy... Orlando shot 58% for the game, I just don't see the Sixers doing that. Not only that, looking at their shot chart, most of their shots were from the perimeter, and outside shooting isn't exactly the Sixers' forte.

Wow... an insight - Detroit's gonna pack it in, and make the Sixers shoot jumpers. Here are their best 2pt shooters (thanks 82games.com!):

Miller 44.6% / Young 41.2% / Iguodala 38.1% / Green 38.0%

So if Detroit is playing tight interior defense, make sure Miller and Young are getting the bulk of the jumpers. An unconventional thing to do here would be to try and have Willie set up guys for open shots, I remember he did that a couple times in the last game. I don't know if Mo would apply regular season rules to the playoffs, but Mo could really use Jason Smith here as an outside threat, but I don't know if the kid can come through right now. But imagine if Jason could do this, how much that would discombobulate Detroit?

Another thing - I was looking for how good the Sixers are in the 4th quarter, and found nothing impressive, but it seems I've found another Detroit weakness - they're not that great in that final period! With all their playoff experience and the 2nd Mr. Big Shot (Billups), you'd think that would've shown up in their 4th quarter stats, but it hasn't. The Pistons excelling under pressure is a media-perpetuated myth?

Marc, your Boy Ray here standing up boldly to proclaim that yes I believe the Sixers can honestly win this series against a team on paper are much, much better than they are, but you and I both know that paper don't dribble, shoot, pass and play defense. I just believe the Sixers are the more hungrer team. I've seen the Piston on many of days just going through the motions like robots. Sixers in 5.

Peace!

OOh one final note I'd like to make, Denver over LA in a earth shaking upset!

I'm crazy right?

I also want no part of Zach Randolph. He plays no D, and once he gets the ball on O its over, you will never see the ball leave his fat hands again..

Also happened to watch the eastern conference playoff preview on NBA TV. They showed Andre Iguodala talking to the team in the locker room about the playoffs. Thats the end of the good news. I have never heard a worse speech or a professional athlete who looked so awkward. He literally rolled his eyes into the sky mid speech. WTF is up with this guy and his stupid facail expressions?

Sixerzguy:

In the 4th quarter of that win in Detroit, Smith hit 2 of our 4-5 made field goals, the rest was from the FT line. He was open on the pick and pop, and Detroit did not respect him. I think Lou and Smith could run that play successfully in this series because Detroit will be focused on giving Billups help when he has to cover Lou. Or they could try to run the same play with Lou and Thad. I really think Lou is our wild card in this series because no one on Detroit can stay in front of him.

No correlation between speechifying and court performance or worth. Case in point: A young Bob "Butterbean" Love was a final cut by the Royals in mid-60s because of his serious stuttering, his ineloquence, his natural disability. Bulls signed him and the rest was history--one of the NBA's all-time great shooters from forward spot. Unfortunately, post-NBA life wasn't without a lot of struggle; at one point worked as a dishwasher to make ends meet. But, make no mistake, Bob Love is a winner, speech impediment and all!

Zach Randolph isn't a good defender. It'd be like if we picked up Glenn Robinson again.

Time_out:

Exactly, we want to be like Phoenix, but with good defense.

Right on, Morty. Any shooting guard that shoots 42% has to be considered a wild card. I wonder who's gonna use him the most on other end, Billups or Hamilton?

I am going with the notion that the Sixers "can" beat Detroit and predict they will, indeed, win the series in six games.

I am hoping the Sixers play their game and not fall into any status quo play-off game mentality.

Work hard, run, run, run...and never quit!

Jumpin':

Lou was the one shutting Billups down at the end of our big Detroit win. You recall the way he used his arms and quick feet to stay in front of him, right?

He's also the one scoring the same amount of points in 3 less minutes per game while taking 3 less shots, and getting the same amount of rebounds, and one more assists in the same 3 less minutes. Suffice it to say, I'll take my chances with Lou.

Missed the Detroit win, was outta town. Maybe he's capable of better defense, but I'm from Missouri. Swiss cheese for the most part, reduced fat.

Sixerz, Wishful thinking on my part having an in shape Love be Boozer like. One can only hope. Boozer isn't the greatest athlete either. Wonder why he fell in the draft?

Well apparently we only have a 4.8 change of beating Detroit!
http://www.reclinergm.com/76ers-have-a-48-percent-chance-of-beating-detroit/

Predictions are the most ridiculous thing, because the people who pick the Sixers in 6 or 7 will boast and brag if the Sixers somehow manage to pull it off (which they won't), but if they lose, they will not mention that they picked the Sixers in 6 or whatever they said. Trust me - if they truly wanted to make some bold prediction, they would create a bodog account and bet some serious $$ on the Sixers instead of taking them in 6 or 7 on this blog - and the reason I know that nobody is going to bet $$ is because these people would be telling all of us how they bet on the Sixers to win the series, etc., etc.

I really believe the Sixers have the ability to pull off the upset, but if they do it will be in 7. Just look at the Warriors last year, the reason that the players play the game is because nothing is guaranteed. So yea I think that the Sixers can win.
I just hate how negative the Philadelphia media is, at least give our boys some credit and predict a win or two. A team shouldn't be able get white board material from their own writers.

I don't know why you would rate Iguodala agains any forward in the NBA. He should not even be mentioned in the same sentence with Prince. Iguosala is a good player on amediocre team. His statistics show that he is the first scoring option on the team and is averaging less than 20 points per game. Where does your ocnfidence in Iguodala come from? He is a tweener and he can't shoot. He will never ben an NBA all star. The Sixers are inconsistent because he is inconsistent. He is doing the best he can as the first scoring option in a contract year and he is simply a mediocre NBA player. There is no one on the NBA All Star roster whose place he can take.