Perhaps just another day in politics. But for economists, this is serious stuff: Did Ed Rendell's administration err in putting Pennsylvania's jobless rate at its lowest point in decades? Mark Zandi at Moody's Economy.com, one of the most respected economists on housing and employment issues, says Rendell's team is getting something wrong when they say Pennsylvania's jobless rate has fallen to 3.8 percent, which would be its lowest rate in 30 years. Zandi tells The Inquirer's Bob Fernandez in today's editions: "It looks to me like someone made an error on their spreadsheet. The job market is good, but it's not the best in 30 years. ... Something's amiss." But other economists say it may be a matter of interpretation, not settled fact. Rendell in April issued a
press release that proclaimed the rate at an historic low and took partial credit for it. (
"“This growth illustrates the success of our aggressive, strategic investments in a skilled workforce and businesses that create jobs," he said then.) That kind of claim is not unusual or necessarily wrong. But kneedling the numbers to make them look especially low would be odd and hard to believe. Rendell's Department of Labor and Industry seemed to hedge a bit to Fernandez, saying the low rate "is seasonal." But the figure already supposedly was adjusted for seasonal differences. Somebody definitely needs to recheck a spreadsheet. -
Thomas Ginsberg
