Team |
Record (Conf.) |
Pomeroy |
RPI |
Sagarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Drexel |
13-4 (4-2) |
70 |
33 |
63 |
La Salle |
8-9 (1-3) |
203 |
277 |
239 |
Penn |
9-6 (2-0) |
82 |
74 |
102 |
Saint Joseph's |
10-7 (3-1) |
83 |
130 |
122 |
Temple |
7-9 (1-3) |
116 |
131 |
130 |
Villanova |
12-5 (2-3) |
25 |
20 |
31 |
Obviously, Villanova is in the best shape. The Notre Dame win was the Wildcats' second over a Pomeroy Top 20 team, but unless the Irish start winning conference games on the road that stat won't last much longer. The Oklahoma win will also look good as the Sooners beat lesser Big 12 teams. Although DePaul is ranked higher in Pomeroy (38) than Drexel, I think Nova's loss to the Blue Demons will look worse than the loss to Drexel in the end, because DePaul hasn't played any other of the power teams in the Big East yet.
Drexel's body of work is looking pretty good too. Yes, the Rider loss is bad. But if Villanova and Syracuse (20 Pomeroy / 36 RPI) keep winning, that will only enhance the Dragons' chances of getting an at-large bid. If Penn keeps winning, it will make that loss to the Quakers increasingly palatable. Right now, I think Drexel does deserve an at-large spot. It sure would help, though, if the Dragons could beat take at least two of their three forthcoming games with the other CAA teams at the top of the pack -- VCU, Old Dominion and Hofstra.
Despite Penn's strong non-conference strength of schedule, Drexel is currently the only chance the Quakers have at finishing the season with a quality win. But it would definitely be in the Quakers' interest to run the table the rest of the way -- especially in the Ivy League. That would be the best way to avoid anything resembling last year's situation, where two conference losses stuck Penn with a 15 seed and a date with Texas in Dallas. 14-0 in the league would look very, very good to the selection committee; 13-1 wouldn't be the worst thing, but better safe than sorry.
(EDIT: Yes, that's a change from the original version, because I got some better RPI information a friend who deals with this stuff more often than I do. But that's the joy of having a blog.)
St. Joe's is very interesting. Though the Hawks don't have a quality win as of now, they have a lot of chances coming to get one -- two games each against Xavier and GW, and a home finale with UMass. I'm far from convinced that St. Joe's can win the A-10, but if they do and they beat one of the bigger teams in the conference, they might get a decent seed.
You might think that Temple's less-than-stellar record would put them in a similar place in the rankings, but it doesn't. That's in part because the Owls played at Duke and Villanova, but they do have a RPI Top 100 win over Long Beach State. Given the, uh, lack of quality in the Big West, that might remain the case for the rest of the season if LBSU keeps winning.
Finally, as I said yesterday, La Salle's situation is quite clear. But I'm going to stick my neck out in one respect. Pomeroy is currently projecting that La Salle will win at St. Bonaventure by three points, and that there's a 60-percent chance that La Salle will win in general. I'll predict that La Salle will win, and by more than that.
After the jump, some other tidbits.
-- La Salle is 10th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, which is the percent of rebounds the team's offense pulls down at its end of the floor.
-- Villanova is ninth in offensive rebounding percentage; 28th in offensive efficiency; 31st in percentage of field goal attempts that are three-point shots; and the best team in the country from the free throw line at 78.2 percent. There's bad news on the other side of the ball, though: the Wildcats are ranked 305th in three-point shooting percentage conceded at 38.9 percent.
-- Temple is 19th in turnover percentage (i.e., they don't do it much) and 12th in steal percentage (i.e., they get a lot of them). Fran Dunphy certainly deserves praise for getting his players to play such good defense.
-- Penn is 41st in the country in two-point field goal percentage. That doesn't surprise me, especially after the Quakers scored 38 points in the paint against Cornell. But it nonetheless means that Steve Danley and Mark Zoller are getting the job done inside, as is Brian Grandieri when he gets free underneath. The Quakers are also 29th in the country in their ratio of assists to field goals made, which reflects well on coach Glen Miller's offensive system. Guard Ibrahim Jaaber is 18th in the country in percentage of possible minutes played at 91.3 percent.
-- St. Joe's is 44th in the country in three-point shooting and 43rd in the country in team block percentage, which is the percent of opponents' shots blocked. Ahmad Nivins is a major reason for that, as he's ranked 23rd in individual block percentage.
-- Drexel's offensive numbers aren't great, but their defensive numbers sure are. 25th in defensive efficiency, 30th in effective field goal percentage conceded, 31st in block percentage and 32nd in steal percentage. Individually, Chaz Crawford is 12th in offensive rebounding percentage and 11th in block percentage.
That's more than enough to chew on. I'll try to make this shorter next week, and I'll be back later with the latest Bracketology news.
