A very busy day today, but something ought to be on schedule. So here's the latest table of where the City Six stand in the major statistical rankings. Last week's rankings are in parentheses:
Team |
Record (Conf.) |
Pomeroy |
RPI |
Sagarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Drexel |
11-4 (4-2) |
76 (83) |
46 (31) |
62 (70) |
La Salle |
8-9 (1-3) |
202 (198) |
280 (279) |
236 (233) |
Penn |
8-6 (2-0) |
92 (86) |
72 (83) |
106 (102) |
Saint Joseph's |
9-6 (3-1) |
75 (82) |
99 (125) |
110 (116) |
Temple |
6-9 (0-3) |
125 (142) |
148 (142) |
136 (141) |
Villanova |
11-5 (2-3) |
27 (34) |
15 (27) |
22 (42) |
I'm not going to go so far as to say I confused myself trying to interpret the changes, but there are certainly some interesting conclusions to draw. Drexel's up reasonably in Pomeroy and Sagarin and down big in RPI, which reflects the fact that the Dragons beat two bad teams at home and one mediocre-to-bad team on the road. RPI only counts who you played, while the other two factor in where the game was and Pomeroy also includes an element of margin of victory.
Penn's the opposite -- up in RPI, down in Pomeroy and Sagarin. The Quakers aren't helped by the fact that last night's close win over Temple was a home game... and more importantly, they aren't helped by the fact that the wins over Temple and La Salle were by a combined five three points.
But the best number of the week by far belongs to St. Joe's -- a 26-place jump in the RPI. That came almost entirely from the Xavier win, as last night's reasonable (RPI-wise) loss at No. 68 GW didn't hurt too much. What's more interesting about the Hawks, though, is that they have been consistently creeping closer to a win over Penn in Ken Pomeroy's prediction machine. Penn's margin of victory was somewhere around six points earlier in the season, and it's now down to one. The Quakers' chance of winning the game is down to 55 percent after being in the 60s earlier.
Odds and ends after the jump.
Villanova is 28th in offensive efficiency, eighth in offensive rebounding percentage, sixth in free throw percentage, 34th in ratio of three-point attempts to field-goal attempts, 29th in turnover percentage forced... and 295th in three-point percentage given up. In other words, that's a very good team with one very big weakness. Individually, Dante Cunningham is 17th in the country in effective field goal percentage, which gives extra emphasis to three-pointers.
Drexel's defense is clearly among the best in the country. The Dragons are 16th in defensive efficiency, 18th in effective FG% (which emphasizes threes) given up, 34th in offensive rebounding percentage given up, 20th in block percentage, 47th in steal percentage and 32nd in ratio of three-point attempts to field goal attempts given up. Chaz Crawford is a major reason why -- eighth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, 38th in defensive rebounding percentage and 13th in block percentage.
Temple still isn't turning the ball over much -- 23rd in the country in turnover percentage, which is the ratio of turnovers to possessions, at 18.1 percent. Dustin Salisbery is 67th in the country in percentage of a team's shots taken at 30.8 percent, while Dion Dacons is 66th in effective FG percentage at 62.3 percent.
La Salle is still among the nation's best in offensive rebounding percentage, ranked ninth at 41.5 percent. Freshman Kimmani Barrett is 44th in the country in the Offensive Rating charts at 125.4. Even Ken Pomeroy doesn't understand how the rankings work, but he says "120 is excellent."
St. Joe's is 56th in offensive effiency, 20th in 3-point percentage at 40 percent and 61st in the country in free throw percentage at 72.2 percent. But perhaps the most important stat for the Hawks this week is their tempo: 62.2 possessions per 40 minutes. Penn's tempo is 69.8. That's very significant difference.
So here's another thought to worry the Penn fans who think St. Joe's will beat the Quakers: If you thought Glen Miller did enough screaming at his players last night to get out and run, wait until Saturday.
