Team |
Record (Conf.) |
Pomeroy |
RPI |
Sagarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Drexel |
17-6 (9-4) |
82 (78) |
55 (52) |
73 (62) |
La Salle |
9-15 (2-8) |
202 (187) |
280 (276) |
246 (233) |
Penn |
11-8 (3-1) |
114 (97) |
105 (98) |
126 (123) |
Saint Joseph's |
12-10 (5-4) |
84 (74) |
94 (84) |
110 (105) |
Temple |
10-12 (4-5) |
95 (127) |
166 (161) |
134 (139) |
Villanova |
15-7 (4-5) |
18 (22) |
18 (20) |
26 (29) |
Hmm.
-- Drexel fell a bit because of the Old Dominion loss, but because ODU is ranked higher (68) in Pomeroy, it wasn't too big of a hit. But given that the Dragons have dropped 12 spots over the last three weeks, tonight's game at Hofstra is really, really big. A win would do wonders for the rankings, and might (might) make the Creighton game not a must-win. But that scenario would probably also require a run to the final of the CAA Tournament. Still, it all starts tonight.
-- La Salle did take a big hit, and it's because the loss last night to Duquesne was at home. Yes, the Dukes are 6-4 in conference play, but they're 10-11 overall. The La Salle-St. Joe's game Saturday is La Salle's home game, which could make the RPI and Pomeroy numbers look really bad next week even if the place is all Hawks fans. The Explorers' RPI didn't fall so much this week because it was already low to begin with.
-- Penn didn't fall nearly as much in the RPI as I thought they would after the Yale loss, but being 3-1 on the road in conference play will do that. And Yale has the second-highest RPI in the conference. But the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings took a big hit because Penn was supposed to win those games but didn't.
Here's the thing, though -- and I hate to go off on a Penn tangent but this is one of the weird things that happens sometimes when you get deep into the stats. Pomeroy's season prediction had Penn finishing at 13-1 in the Ivy League. I figured initially that wouldn't change, but now he has the Quakers finishing 12-2. It must be the Princeton game at the end of the season, but given Penn's recent struggles at Yale and Princeton being 0-4 in the league I'm a bit surprised.
-- Seems to me that St. Joe's fell farther than a loss at a team of Villanova's rank might justify. But this is another case of a team doing something that conform to the Pomeroy prediction, in this case losing by 17 and only scoring 39 points in a game. Still, the Hawks are close to back where they were two weeks ago rankings-wise, and the team hasn't either won or lost two in a row since Jan. 17. So that probably has something to do with it too.
-- Yes, Temple beat a bunch of bad teams, and did so at home, which is why the RPI actually fell. Nonetheless, the Owls' 32-spot jump in Pomeroy shows that three blowout wins will bump you up no matter who they're against. Better news for Temple fans: Pomeroy's predicting a 79-78 win over UMass, though with only a 53 percent probability.
-- Even though Villanova's has a losing record in conference play, those rating numbers are outstanding. If the Wildcats can get to .500, they'll have a very good resume to present to the selection committee. And if they get above that mark -- which is certainly doable, because most of the remaining games are pretty easy -- the ratings and resume will be really good.
Odds and ends after the jump.
-- Villanova is 66th in offensive efficiency, 50th in defensive efficiency and 146th in tempo. On offense, the Wildcats are 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, 56th in free throw rate, third in free throw percentage and 42nd in ratio of threes to all field goal attempts. On defense, they're 28th in turnover percentage given up, 45th in offensive rebounding percentage given up, 63rd in 2-point FG percentage given up, 88th in block percentage, 33rd in steal percentage... and 321st in ratio of threes to all field goal attempts given up.
-- Dante Cunningham is 42nd in effective field goal percentage. Curtis Sumpter is 79th in the percentage of his teams' shots taken while he's on the floor. Scottie Reynolds is 65th in assists rate, which is "assists divided by the field goals made by the player’s teammates while he is on the court." Simple enough.
-- Temple is 51st in offensive efficiency, 247th in defensive efficiency and 94th in tempo. The Owls are 39th in effective field goal percentage, 30th in turnover percentage, 55th in 3-point percentage, 62nd in 2-point percentage, 10th in steal percentage... and 299th in offensive rebounding percentage. But their defense is 135th in 2-point FG percentage. Obviously, it's going to be hard to stop Stephane Lasme and Rashaun Freeman from getting shots. But Temple stops two-pointers better than it does threes; the Owls are 179th in three-point percentage given up.
-- Dionte Christmas is (deep breath): 95th in percentage of possible minutes in which he's on the floor, 85th in offensive rating and 77th in effective FG percentage. Dustin Salisbery is 90th in percentage of his team's possessions while he's on the floor in which he takes the shot. Dion Dacons is 75th in effective FG percentage.
-- St. Joe's is 76th in offensive efficiency, 168th in defensive efficiency and 307th in tempo. The Hawks are 99th in effective FG percentage, 56th in offensive rebounding percentage (they were 13th last week), 63rd in free throw rate and 54th in 3-point percentage. On defense, they're 87th in free throw rate conceded, 65th in block percentage given up and 67th in ratio of threes to all field goal attempts given up.
-- Ahmad Nivins is 55th in effective FG percentage and 92nd in offensive rebounding percentage. Pat Calathes is 76th in defensive percentage. D.J. Rivera is 84th in steal percentage.
-- Penn is 55th in offensive efficiency, 220th in defensive efficiency and 87th in tempo. The Quakers are 46th in effective FG percentage, 61st in three-point percentage (thanks in large part to a combined 22-41 effort in the two games this past weekend), 56th in two-point percentage and 15th in the ratio of assists to field goals made. On defense, they're 251st in effective FG percentage given up, 261st in offensive rebounding percentage given up and 296th in 3-point percentage given up.
-- Ibrahim Jaaber is 11th in percentage of possible minutes played, 96th in assist rate (see Scottie Reynolds) and 48th in steal percentage. Steve Danley is 20th in free throw rate.
-- La Salle is 83rd in offensive efficiency, 284th in defensive efficiency and 111th in tempo. The Explorers are fourth in offensive rebounding percentage and 78th in three-point percentage, but are 272nd in turnover percentage, 307th in steal percentage and 319th in the ratio of threes to all field goals attempted. On defense, they're (yikes) 291st in turnover percentage, 288th in block percentage, and 336th -- i.e., last in Division I -- in free throw percentage. Oh dear.
-- Kimmani Barrett is 60th in the offensive rating charts and 57th in offensive rebounding percentage.
-- Drexel is 178th in offensive efficiency, 20th in defensive efficiency and 249th in tempo. The Dragons are 18th in free throw rate, but offer no extremes in any other offensive category. On defense, they're (really deep breath): 23rd in effective field goal percentage given up, 93rd in turnover percentage forced, 61st in offensive rebounding percentage allowed, 11th in 2-point percentage given up, 18th in block percentage, 35th in steal percentage, 20th in the ratio of threes to all field goals given up and 37th in the ratio of assists to field goals made given up.
I hope you were able to read all that.
-- Chaz Crawford is 73rd in offensive rating, 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, 57th in defensive rebounding percentage, 83rd in free throw rate and 10th in block percentage. Bashir Mason is 44th in steal percentage. Frank Elegar is 47th in the percentage of his team's possessions while he's on the floor in which he takes the shot and 99th in defensive rebounding percentage.
I think that's enough for one week!
