This week, Penn and Villanova are in, and Drexel is the fifth team out. Yes, I'm late with this, but as you might imagine Crunchy Numbers took me a long time and I wanted to get that over with.
The 13-seed Quakers get a cross-country trip to Spokane to face Air Force in the East (Meadowlands) Regional. The Falcons are a lofty 20th in Pomeroy, but Joe Lunardi writes (Insider subscription required) that Air Force is teetering in its seed because of a recent loss at BYU.
Nonetheless, Air Force's offense is astonishingly effective. Second in offensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage, ninth in turnover percentage, fifth in 3-point percentage, third in 2-point percentage, seventh in free throw percentage and 14th in ratio of assists to field goals made.
But there's a caveat to all this, and Penn fans already know it -- the Falcons play the Princeton offense. In fact, current Princeton head coach Joe Scott was Air Force's head coach when the program rose to prominence a few years ago. I would have to think that, despite the Falcons' lofty stats, Penn would like nothing more than to play a team that runs an offense that it knows as well as the ghosts in the Palestra's rafters.
Air Force plays at a slow tempo -- 59.3 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 332nd out of 336 teams in Division I. Again, the result of the Princeton offense, but Penn averages 10 more possessions per game. Of course it's folly to assume this matchup will actually happen, but it strikes me as reasonably favorable towards Penn compared to the other 4 seeds: Nevada, Oklahoma State and Butler. The winner of that game gets the winner of Kentucky-West Virginia.
Villanova is one of the last four teams in and gets a 12-seed and a matchup in Buffalo against Virginia Tech as part of the South (San Antonio) Regional. The Hokies are good, but Villanova's three spots higher in Pomeroy and plays defense plenty well enough to have a more-than-reasonable shot at winning that game. Having said that, this week's bracket came out before the Hokies lost at home to N.C. State last night, so Virginia Tech certainly wouldn't be a 5 if the thing came out this morning.
The other 5-seeds are Kentucky, Texas and Indiana. Texas would be out of the question because they played the Wildcats in the regular season. But Kentucky and Indiana are both ranked higher in Pomeroy than the Wildcats, at 13th and 9th respectively. Kentucky plays outstanding defense (no surprise there) and is far better at scoring two-point shots than threes, which plays into Villanova's hands. It would be low-scoring and hard-fought, and I like Villanova's chances in a game like that.
Indiana's also very good defensively and is ranked 51st in three-ponint shooting, so that matchup would be more difficult than Kentucky. But I'm not sure whether I really believe in Indiana at the moment, and Jay Wright beat Kelvin Sampson's Oklahoma last year at the Pavilion.
Virginia Tech could well end up with a 5-seed anyway, especially with a good run in the ACC Tournament. So maybe Lunardi's matchup isn't out of the question after all. But the most important thing is that a 12-seed always beats a 5, and if you're a fan of karma Villanova's in good shape indeed.
Finally, Drexel. Mike Jensen made the point on this week's College HoopsCast that Drexel might well be fighting Villanova for one of the last at-large bids. If both teams keep winning I think they both make it. But it always bears repeating that saying you have to get it done and actually doing it aren't the same thing. For what it's worth, Virginia Commonwealth's an 11-seed this week, but got a bit of a bump from the 12-seed Lunardi says its stats should merit.
