Yet again, a chance for me to tell you what I think about something even if you didn't ask for it...
I think tonight's game is actually going to be pretty close and low scoring. What a surprise, right? Well, both teams are in the top 50 in offensive efficiency. Villanova has a better defensive efficency, but St. Joe's averages five fewer possessions per game.
I think Villanova's going to win, but they'd better do their work on the perimeter or they could be in trouble. SJU is 38th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage, and 'Nova is 284th in 3-point defense. St. Joe's will probably have to rely on its perimeter shooting, because the 'Cats are 80th in defensive efficiency and 90th in 2-point percentage given up.
But with apologies to the stat folks, the important things in this one are intangible. St. Joe's is going into the Pavilion with an all-freshman backcourt and only one player -- Pat Calathes Artur Surov, which really tells you something -- who was around when the Hawks last played on the Main Line in 2004. Villanova has the experience, the crowd, and a serious need to not lose this thing for their NCAA Tournament hopes.
It'll be close, though. If you pick games for more than recreational purposes, you've probably heard that 'Nova is favored by 11 1/2 by the people who try to make more than $5 a year off college athletes' work. That's way too much for a Big 5 game.
I'll probably check back with something to say later tonight when the game's over, if not sooner. It's on ESPN2 at 7pm, so be sure to watch.
