Villanova |
Kentucky |
|
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf.) | 22-10 (9-7) |
22-11 (9-7) |
| Pomeroy | 19 |
18 |
| RPI | 19 |
13 |
| Sagarin | 20 |
19 |
| Tempo (Rank) | 68.1 poss / 40 mins (111) |
65.7 poss / 40 mins (214) |
When Villanova has the ball |
||
|---|---|---|
Villanova |
Kentucky |
|
| Offensive efficiency (scored / 100 poss.) | 66 (108.0) |
n/a |
| Defensive efficiency (allowed / 100 poss.) | n/a |
85 (98.4) |
| Effective FG % (counts threes double) | 210 (49.1) |
61 (47.2) |
| Turnover % (per 100 poss.) | 102 (20.1) |
296 (18.7) |
| Offensive rebounding % (per 100 poss.) | 13 (39.6) |
111 (32.3) |
| Free throw rate (per 100 pos.) | 12 (32.8) |
13 (27.2) |
| 3-point FG % (accuracy) | 153 (35.3) |
69 (32.8) |
| 2-point FG % (accuracy) | 247 (46.6) |
77 (45.9) |
| Free throw % (accuracy) | 1 (78.4) |
6 (63.8) |
| Block % (per 100 poss.) | 328 (13.1) |
35 (12.7) |
| Steal % (per 100 poss.) | 139 (9.5) |
256 (8.7) |
| Ratio of threes to all FG attempts (%) | 55 (39.2) |
284 (37.8) |
| Ratio of assists to FGs made (%) | 181 (54.7) |
85 (52.3) |
Villanova's defense vs. Kentucky's offense |
||
|---|---|---|
Villanova |
Kentucky |
|
| Offensive efficiency (scored / 100 poss.) | n/a |
69 (107.8) |
| Defensive efficiency (allowed / 100 poss.) | 59 (96.8) |
n/a |
| Effective FG % (counts threes double) | 91 (48.1) |
33 (54.0) |
| Turnover % (per 100 poss.) | 54 (23.2) |
145 (20.9) |
| Offensive rebounding % (per 100 poss.) | 96 (31.9) |
148 (34.1) |
| Free throw rate (per 100 pos.) | 256 (41.2) |
169 (25.2) |
| 3-point FG % (accuracy) | 222 (35.5) |
144 (35.6) |
| 2-point FG % (accuracy) | 42 (44.6) |
13 (54.3) |
| Free throw % (accuracy) | 185 (69.5) |
148 (70.0) |
| Block % (per 100 poss.) | 75 (10.6) |
160 (8.8) |
| Steal % (per 100 poss.) | 32 (12.1) |
190 (10.2) |
| Ratio of threes to all FG attempts (%) | 310 (40.1) |
161 (34.3) |
| Ratio of assists to FGs made (%) | 55.9 (187) |
61 (60.0 |
Villanova
Curtis Sumpter
-- Percentage of team's shots taken while on the floor: 86 (31.0)
Scottie Reynolds
-- Assist rate: 67 (30.8 per 100 possessions)
Kentucky
Randolph Morris
-- Field goal percentage: 23 (59.2)
-- Effective FG percentage: 91 (59.2 -- he has not attempted any three-point shots this season)
-- Blocks per game: 44 (2.0, tied with three others)
-- Defensive rebounding %: 56 (21.9 per 100 possessions)
-- Block %: 56 (8.0 per 100 possessions)
Analysis
I have Villanova winning this game, but I never said it was going to be easy. The single biggest key for the Wildcats -- oh dear, here we go again -- is to deny the entry pass to Randoph Morris. Villanova has been quite good at denying entry passes to big men all season, as exemplified by their efforts against Texas and Georgetown. Good pressure on the perimeter has been one of the... how am I going to do this... Big East Wildcats' strong points this season, despite the high numbers of threes given up.
But I would let Kentucky try to win the game from outside. The SEC Wildcats shoot right around what Villanova usually allows, and I'd take my chances against that. More importantly, though, in Kentucky's two biggest conference games of the season -- against Florida -- they shot 3-for-22 from beyond the arc at Rupp Arena and a slightly more respectable 7-for-19 in Gainesville.
On defense, I think Villanova needs to be a bit judicious in choosing when to drive to the basket. I'm still very impressed by how well Scottie Reynolds did taking the ball into the paint against Texas, but the Longhorns don't have interior defenders as good as Morris. Of course, having a healthy Mike Nardi will go a long way in running an effective perimeter offense, but Kentucky gives up a really high ratio of threes to field goal attempts. So the shots should be there for Reynolds, Nardi if he's healthy, Shane Clark, and -- in particular -- Curtis Sumpter, who could be a serious matchup problem for Kentucky. Back tomorrow morning as we start the countdown to the two best days on the college sports calendar.
