Crunchy numbers: The idiot returns (Soft Pretzel Logic)

Crunchy numbers: The idiot returns

So you've probably noticed by now that Philly.com launched its redesign over the weekend. It's been taking up a lot of my time, but now I have at least a few minutes to come back and see what this week's football stats are.

So let's have a look at the local scene...

21. Rutgers (32)
47. Penn State (40)
86. Delaware (93)
106. Villanova (107)
127. Lehigh (139)
161. Temple (166)
162. Lafayette (139)
175. Penn (165)
185. Delaware State (162)
242. La Salle (242)

The biggest jump of the week is Lehigh, though none of the teams did exceptionally well. Rutgers jumps 11 spots without playing, which probably says quite a bit about how weird a season this has been in college football.

I'm surprised Villanova didn't move higher after beating Penn, but it was a home win and margin doesn't count. It's noteworthy, though, that Villanova is ranked higher than Syracuse (110) even after the Orange won at Louisville. If that stays the case all year it would make an interesting rollout come basketball season.

Then again, the Cardinals are in Mike Kern's Fraud Five.

Penn State fell less than I thought it would, though they were a bit low to start with and Michigan (44) is pretty close to the Nittany Lions in the rankings. Lafayette falls the farthest after being upset at home by Princeton.

Now for the Top 10 comparison. I'm adding in the Harris poll this week because it counts for 1/3 of the BCS standings. Once the BCS standings start, I will swap Harris out for the BCS.

Rank	AP	Coaches	Harris	Sagarin
1.	USC	USC	USC	USC
2.	LSU	LSU	LSU	LSU
3.	Oklahoma	Florida	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
4.	Florida	Oklahoma	Florida	Ohio State
5.	West Virginia	West Virginia	West Virginia	Florida
6.	California	California	California	West Virginia
7.	Texas	Texas	Ohio State	Oregon
8.	Ohio State	Ohio State	Texas	California
9.	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Texas
10.	Rutgers	Rutgers	Oregon	Boston College

If ever there was a team whose computer stats seem inflated compared to the human eye, it seems to be Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played Youngstown State (82), Akron (83), Northwestern (99), and Washington (36). The first three of those are a lot higher than I expected, especially Northwestern, which lost at home to Duke.

But I think Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan could all beat Ohio State pretty easily. Even after seeing the Nittany Lions struggle in Ann Arbor this past weekend.

Other than that, the big discrepancy seems to be whether Boston College or Rutgers deserves to be in the Top 10. Both teams have Philly ties, so if there are any fans out there of either school let me know what you think.

Tags:

Posted by Jonathan Tannenwald on September 24, 2007 2:47 PM | Permalink

Comments (7)

Fred Farkle:

Please clarify:

Why did you expect Villanova to move higher after beating an undermanned, sloppy, turnover-laden, Penn team?

Not to mention UP came in off a loss in which they scored 7 points.

Its not as if the Wildcats just knocked off Southern Cal.

VU easily beat an inferior opponent.

Arent you over-valuing 2007 Penn football?

Posted by Fred Farkle | September 24, 2007 3:59 PM

Posted on September 24, 2007 15:59

Jonathan Tannenwald

Because so far, most of the teams that have recorded a win or a loss have moved more than one spot up or down. I'm not a math expert but I had figured that any win would move a team up more than one slot, probably somewhere from three to five.

So no, I'm not overvaluing Penn football -- they've been quite bad so far, and it wouldn't surprise me if they lose next weekend too -- but I might be overvaluing the value of a win.

Posted by Jonathan Tannenwald | September 24, 2007 4:06 PM

Posted on September 24, 2007 16:06

Fred Farkle:

Thanks for clarification.

Your comment "I'm surprised Villanova didn't move higher after beating Penn" is slightly misleading to the reader, in the context of your explanation.

Knowing what you "wrote" vis-a-vis what you "meant", it may have been more prudent to write "I'm surprised Villanova didn't move higher after a win". And leave off "beating Penn"

The implication was that beating Penn was worthy of an uptick in the ranking.

Posted by Fred Farkle | September 24, 2007 4:22 PM

Posted on September 24, 2007 16:22

mike:

As a Boston College grad who grew up and then returned to Philly, I must say I'm impressed with the way Coach Jags has the team focused and ready to play each week. And Matty Ice Ryan is showing himself to be the gunslinger and viable Heisman candidate he truly is.

While it's nice to be 4-0 at this point, with the prospect of a 7-0 record when they go to face ND in the Catholic Super Bowl, I won't be convinced of BC's rightful place on a Top 10 list until they beat Miami at the end of the season.

Posted by mike | September 25, 2007 10:19 AM

Posted on September 25, 2007 10:19

Vic:

Your still an idiot

Posted by Vic | September 25, 2007 10:22 AM

Posted on September 25, 2007 10:22

Mike:

Take it somewhere else, Vic.

Posted by Mike | September 25, 2007 11:18 AM

Posted on September 25, 2007 11:18

Fred:

I agree with Mike. No place for that here.

And when i do disagree with the author, I try to keep it above board without any sort of rude remarks.

Posted by Fred | September 25, 2007 2:37 PM

Posted on September 25, 2007 14:37

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Author

Jonathan Tannenwald is a producer with Philly.com.

I fell in love with the Big 5 at first sight upon moving to Philadelphia in 2002. At various points in my journalistic career, I've covered all six of the region's Division I teams. During that time, I've eaten many soft pretzels from the Palestra's concession stands, which is how this blog got its name.

In addition to the blog, I host and produce the Inquirer's College HoopsCast. It's a weekly podcast that features all the latest news and analysis from around local and national college basketball. Regular guests include Inquirer writers Mike Jensen, Joe Juliano and Mel Greenberg.

I also occasionally contribute to the Inquirer's women's basketball weblog, Women's Hoops Guru. If you've come here from there, this blog deals mostly with the men's side of things, though I do write about women's basketball and other sports when they fit in.

When not focusing on college hoops, I host and produce the Inquirer's PhilliesCast with Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki, and can occasionally be found behind the camera shooting videos of the Eagles, other professional sports teams and the tiger cubs at the zoo.

One of the great things about City Series basketball, and college basketball as a whole, is its sense of community. So I want to hear from you. Post a comment or send me an email by clicking on my name above. But don't be profane, and don't post hate speech. I'm sure you'd like to take a shot at that commenter on the opposite side of a rivalry from you, or say something nasty about a team you don't like. But this blog isn't the place for it. Thanks.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on September 24, 2007 2:47 PM.

The previous post in this blog was The outsiders.

The next post in this blog is It's official: Temple got screwed.

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Soft Pretzel Logic

A blog about college sports in the Philadelphia region and across the country.