Fred asks some very good questions in a comment attached to the last post. It's a long comment, so I don't want to paste it here. But read it, then come back for my answer...
I definitely agree about the bad attendances at Franklin Field. It doesn't help in terms of creating buzz that they haven't won a league title since 2003, but that shouldn't be an excuse. And it certainly isn't an excuse for the many people who sleep in past the kickoff, throw their toast and go home.
I think part of it is that so many people focus on basketball first, and at this point, by some distance. Which is probably the case at most of the schools in the region, and that's to be expected given that our basketball teams are far more relevant on the national stage than football.
Having said that, I think Villanova football draws well enough -- an average of 9,520 fans per game, which is 76 percent of capacity. I have to think that goes up with Hofstra and Delaware as the last two home games.
Penn's average in two home games is 10,273, but having been at both of those I have a bit of a hard time believing it. And obviously, the percent capacity comparison doesn't work with Franklin Field.
I also think Temple is drawing better than it used to from its fan base. I phrase it that way because the Owls used to play big teams at home and get lots of visiting fans, and that doesn't even include what Penn State will bring next month. I was impressed by the turnout at the Navy game, though, and I will be very interested to see what the attendance at the Linc is this Saturday, though. I would hope it's big.
Anyway, your greater point of why bother doing this is also a good one, and I do have an answer for it. It goes back to 2003 when Villanova beat Temple at the Linc. It got me to thinking about exactly what the best football team in the region is.
Now that I have the blog, I figured that I could try to find some statistical way of answering the question and bridging that gap between the lower end of I-A and the upper end of I-AA. As Sagarin includes both divisions, I figured that would be a good thing to try. It obviously isn't perfect, and maybe I'll be able to find a different method for next season.
More after the jump, because this thing is getting long...
I think, though, that the comparison can be broken out into three levels at this point:
- Rutgers and Penn State. The most interesting to me at this point, because of the teams' prominence and the fact that they don't play each other.
- Temple, Delaware and Villanova. A continuation of that game from 2003, and trying again to measure the low end of I-A against the high end of I-AA. A conversation piece as much as anything else, but more relevant this year because of what Appalachian State did to Michigan.
(If we'd done this in 2002, we would also have noted that Villanova won at Rutgers that year.)
- Lehigh, Lafayette and Penn. They play each other and loads of common opponents every year, so this allows for a comparison over more than one day.
- Delaware State and La Salle. Okay, I admit that they're included to be sure that all the teams from the region are in the list. Obviously, La Salle is a class unto itself, but Delaware State is an interesting wild card.
We don't really know much about the Hornets, even though they're a closer drive to here than Penn State or Rutgers. But they've interested me ever since this piece on ESPN.com about why Delaware never plays them.
The last thing I would say is that as you've probably noticed, I've spent much of this season trying to figure out just how the Sagarin machine works. I've tried to put as many of my thoughts on here as I can so that you can see what I'm thinking through and hopefully offer your own views.
(Which you have, and I'm quite happy about that.)
But for now, I don't really want to give up on the exercise.
