The A-10 and the NCAA Tournament (Soft Pretzel Logic)

The A-10 and the NCAA Tournament

Jack asks:

By the way, how many teams from the A-10 do you think get in this year?

Before last night, I would have been able to make a good case for four: Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts and Rhode Island in order of probability.

Rhody definitely hurt itself last night by losing at Saint Louis, while UMass took an enormous step by winning at Dayton.

My gut tells me that there is a second tier of A-10 teams comprised of Charlotte and St. Joe's, and that if either wins its big games it could beat Rhode Island to a bid.

Charlotte, with an RPI of 91 and a strength of schedule of 190, took a big step by winning at Clemson. St. Joe's might have a better shot, with an RPI of 48 and a hefty strength of schedule of 64.

Charlotte (schedule here) goes to UMass tomorrow, and could take another big step by winning that game. The 49ers get Xavier at home on Feb. 13, which is their only home game left of much consequence. But they go to Rhode Island for their last regular game of the season, March 8, and there could be a lot on the line in that game.

Now for the Hawks, and it's really this simple: win all your home games. Their next game on City Ave. is against UMass and their last one is against Xavier, which could probably afford to lose that game and not be troubled for an at-large bid.

Yes, that includes Villanova, and yes, that includes a technical road game against Penn. But I can't imagine the crowd tomorrow night being any less than 60-40 in the Hawks' favor.

Having said that, beating Villanova isn't mandatory. It would go a long way, though, because St. Joe's has to go to Xavier, Rhode Island and Dayton in that order -- the last one being on the last day of the season.

A deep run in Atlantic City would also help, knocking off at least one of the above along the way.

Tags:

Posted by Jonathan Tannenwald on January 18, 2008 9:32 AM | Permalink

Comments (2)

Jack:

What is the outlook for the tournament in terms of tickets?

In recent years, the A-10 tourney has been a ghost-town.

AC is a nice destination for some schools, but totally out of the way for alot of teams in the league

Posted by Jack | January 18, 2008 10:37 AM

Posted on January 18, 2008 10:37

Joe Manning:

Are you kidding me? Villanova will kill them but they are certainly better tham most of the A-10 teams. Plus, their coach is the best.

Believe it or not this comment comes from a Villanova graduate

Posted by Joe Manning | January 18, 2008 7:32 PM

Posted on January 18, 2008 19:32

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Jonathan Tannenwald is a producer with Philly.com.

I fell in love with the Big 5 at first sight upon moving to Philadelphia in 2002. At various points in my journalistic career, I've covered all six of the region's Division I teams. During that time, I've eaten many soft pretzels from the Palestra's concession stands, which is how this blog got its name.

In addition to the blog, I host and produce the Inquirer's College HoopsCast. It's a weekly podcast that features all the latest news and analysis from around local and national college basketball. Regular guests include Inquirer writers Mike Jensen, Joe Juliano and Mel Greenberg.

I also occasionally contribute to the Inquirer's women's basketball weblog, Women's Hoops Guru. If you've come here from there, this blog deals mostly with the men's side of things, though I do write about women's basketball and other sports when they fit in.

When not focusing on college hoops, I host and produce the Inquirer's PhilliesCast with Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki, and can occasionally be found behind the camera shooting videos of the Eagles, other professional sports teams and the tiger cubs at the zoo.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 18, 2008 9:32 AM.

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Soft Pretzel Logic

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