Soft Pretzel Logic

Welcome to Soft Pretzel Logic's live coverage of Selection Sunday.

With the Selection Show just hours away, here's the final edition of Crunchy Numbers of the season. As we find out who's in and out of the field among the local teams, here's the last rundown of all the big stats.

Remember to enter Philly.com's Hoops Hysteria contest, in which you can win a 50-inch plasma TV from Bob and Ron's Worldwide Stereo if you have the best bracket.

You can also compare your bracket to a panel of experts from the Inquirer, Daily News and Philly.com, or you can play in the Soft Pretzel Logic group just for fun.

(Ignore the Philly.com group; I created it by accident when trying to build a group for the blog and now I can't get rid of it. Sorry.)

After the jump, the usual team and individual breakdown.

Sorry this is so late. I went to the Flower Show with my mother this afternoon, and I got slammed with a cold yesterday morning that probably won't be gone until after the weekend.

If you haven't read Mike Jensen's great feature story on Bobby Convey yet, do so. It's as detailed a profile of the Northeast Philly native -- who I interviewed a couple years ago when he played for D.C. United -- as I've ever seen.

All of the numbers are through Thursday games, so Penn's loss to Cornell -- a really thrilling game, by the way -- is not included in the data.

With only a few games left to play, this is the next-to-last Crunchy Numbers of the regular season. There will be one more next week after Penn wraps up its regular season against Princeton.

NEW HAVEN, CONN. -- Hey folks,

I love the banter on here about soccer, and the fact that it's going on is very encouraging. I'll definitely keep it in mind with some big international tournaments coming up this summer.

But as far as MLS is concerned, there's a long way to go until April 2010. So let's return to college hoops for a while.

I'm at Yale University to cover Penn's game here tonight, and am sitting on press row in the John J. Lee Amphitheater. This is my sixth trip here, and it's long been one of my favorite arenas to visit. It's certainly the most unique of the many I've been to.

The seats are basically wooden semi-cylinders, with student-section bleachers that go right up to the sideline. The ceiling is low and flat with a checkerboard pattern pressed into it, trapping the noise on the floor. The sideline seats are in balconies, and both bands are at the same end of the floor.

Plus, there's the faux-Gothic exterior of Payne-Whitney Gym, the building that houses the basketball arena (at right). It's all very Ivy League, no question about that, but the place gets loud in a hurry. It's a pretty good atmosphere as mid-major venues go, and it's a big reason why the Quakers have lost three of their last four games here, and four of their last six.

At the very least, it's not the kind of place you come across in the Big East.

Food-wise, New Haven has fabulous pizza. It's a thin-crust, big-slice kind of town, and a couple places do it well. I prefer Naples Pizza, but I know others who swear by Yorkside Pizza, Sally's and Pepe's.

If you don't want pizza, the Educated Burgher is the place to go for a burger or corned beef sandwich. The Burgher also has great milkshakes, and its fast service makes it a good place to go to eat before a game.

Now, I say all that knowing that almost all of you will never have a good reason to come here. But if you're driving up 95 on your way to points north, it's a good place to get off the highway for a few minutes.

Anyway, since it's Friday, that means it's time for Crunchy Numbers. So here they are, with La Salle again making the most noise.

It's also notable that including last night's really bad home loss to St. Louis, St. Joseph's' RPI fell from 45 to 55 over the last week. But the Hawks' strength of schedule rose from 105 to 90. Those will be important numbers to keep an eye on as the Hawks try for an NCAA Tournament bid.

Drexel

-- Offensive efficiency: 90.1 (324)
-- Defensive efficiency: 97.7 (76)
-- Tempo: 65.7 poss / 40 mins (221)

Offense

-- Effective FG %: 45.9 (307)
-- 3-point FG %: 31.2 (308)
-- Free throw %: 63.5 (313)
-- Steal %: 12.9 (329)
-- Ratio of assists to field goals made: 60.7% (62)

Defense

-- Effective FG %: 47.1 (56)
-- 3-point FG %: 33.3 (77)
-- 2-point FG %: 45.8 (81)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 31.9% (89)

Frank Elegar

-- Defensive rebounding %: 60th (23.1)
-- Free throw rate: 22nd (81.3%)
-- Block %: 85th (7.2)

La Salle

-- Offensive efficiency: 104.4 (130)
-- Defensive efficiency: 102.9 (194)
-- Tempo: 70.3 poss / 40 mins (64)

Offense

-- Effective FG %: 51.7 (97)
-- Offensive rebounding %: 36.6 (54)
-- 3-point FG %: 40.4 (9)
-- Block %: 13.6 (336)

Defense

-- Offensive rebounding %: 30.3 ( 65)
-- 3-point FG %: 32.4 (47)
-- Free throw %: 72.1 (300)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 29.9% (39)

Darnell Harris

-- Offensive rating: 7th (130.5)
-- Effective FG %: 37th (62.1)
-- Turnover rate: 14th (9.8%)
-- 3-point FG %: 4th

Jerrell Williams

-- Offensive rebounding %: 59th (13.2)

Penn

-- Offensive efficiency: 95.6 (271)
-- Defensive efficiency: 106.0 (267)
-- Tempo: 70.9 poss / 40 mins (54)

Offense

-- 3-point FG %: 31.1 (310)
-- Steal %: 12.3 (316)

Defense

-- 3-point FG %: 40.2 (332)
-- Block %: 10.7 (79)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 30.4% (44)

Harrison Gaines

-- Assist rate: 7th (40.1)

St. Joseph's

-- Offensive efficiency: 113.7 (10)
-- Defensive efficiency: 102.9 (198)
-- Tempo: 66.1 poss / 40 mins (209)

Offense

-- Effective FG %: 55.4 (11)
-- Turnover %: 19.3 (67)
-- Free throw rate: 29.2% (44)
-- 3-point FG %: 40.3 (12)
-- 2-point FG %: 52.5 (44)
-- Free throw %: 71.9 (84)
-- Ratio of assists to field goals made: 59.3% (83)

Defense

-- Free throw rate: 31.7% (76)
-- Block %: 14.0 (20)
-- Steal %: 11.7 (59)

Pat Calathes

-- Offensive rating: 92nd (120.2)

Rob Ferguson

-- Offensive rating: 50th (122.7)
-- Effective FG %: 46th (61.5)

Ahmad Nivins

-- Effective FG %: 19th (64.0%)
-- 3-point FG %: 0.0% (0-0)
-- Free throw rate: 17th (87.1%)

Tasheed Carr

-- Assist rate: 29th (34.8%)

Temple

-- Offensive efficiency: 108.1 (62)
-- Defensive efficiency: 103.3 (206)
-- Tempo: 65.7 poss / 40 mins (223)

Offense

-- Effective FG %: 54.3 (25)
-- Turnover %: 18.9 (50)
-- Offensive rebounding %: 27.4 (310)
-- 3-point FG %: 37.4 (74)
-- 2-point FG %: 53.2 (28)
-- Free throw %: 74.5 (29)
-- Block %: 6.8 (23)
-- Steal %: 9.0 (90)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 39.1% (64)
-- Ratio of assists to field goals made: 59.6% (80)

Defense

-- Free throw rate: 32.1% (84)
-- 2-point FG %: 45.2 (61)
-- Block %: 12.3 (45)

Dionte Christmas

-- Percent of possible minutes played: 10th (92.6)

Mark Tyndale

-- Percent of possible minutes played: 13th (92.5)

Ryan Brooks

-- Turnover rate: 70th (12.1)

Sergio Olmos

-- Block %: 60th (8.0)

Chris Clark

-- Offensive rating: 70th (121.1)

Villanova

-- Offensive efficiency: 106.5 (90)
-- Defensive efficiency: 100.8 (141)
-- Tempo: 69.1 poss / 40 mins (98)

Offense

-- Turnover %: 19.8 (92)
-- Offensive rebounding %: 36.9 (42)
-- Free throw %: 71.6 (92)
-- Block %: 12.1 (323)
-- Steal %: 8.9 (88)

Defense

-- Turnover %: 23.4 (64)
-- Free throw rate: 48.1% (328)
-- Steal %: 11.7 (57)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 39.6% (311)

ABOARD AMTRAK TRAIN 2154, BEGINNING TO WRITE AT HAMILTON, N.J., AND ENDING AT OLD SAYBROOK, Conn. -- Two years ago, I flew to Boston for the Penn-Harvard game and got stuck in a snowstorm very much like the one hitting us today.

The flight up was just fine, but the snow started falling the night I arrived and pretty much every flight in the Northeast was canceled the day I was supposed to leave.

I ended up taking the train back to Philadelphia, and distinctly remember rolling right through the storm. The snow was flying around all over the place, but aside from a few delays nothing really major happened. When I got to 30th Street seven hours later, the skies were clear.

When I went online to book travel to Boston for this year's game between the Quakers and Crimson, I found that roundtrip flights were more expensive than even the Acela train, much less the regular Regional service.

It's AirTran's fault, frankly. They used to fly between Philadelphia and Boston for under $100 each way, and usually a lot less than that. But they discontinued the route back in November, and US Airways immediately did what any good monopoly would do -- jack its fares way up.

So the train it was -- and perhaps will be for a while, US Airways being what it is. Figuring that saving two hours was worth spending a few extra dollars, I stumped for the sleek, quasi-European modernity (and more comfortable seats) of the Acela.

As a result, I sit here en route to Boston surrounded by expensive suits, dossiers full of small-print investment banking data and enough BlackBerries to fill a supermarket produce section. But we're moving and the planes aren't, and this ride is definitely a lot smoother than the Regional service.

Having said that, the ride north is still five hours long. So there's plenty of time to deliver this week's Crunchy Numbers. Pay particular attention to the moves La Salle has made over the last seven days:

Drexel

-- Offensive efficiency: 89.8 (324)
-- Defensive efficiency: 97.6 (82)
-- Tempo: 65.8 poss / 40 mins (221)

Offense

-- Effective FG %: 45.8 (305)
-- Offensive rebounding %: 28.1 (305)
-- 3-point FG %: 31.3 (301)
-- Free throw %: 64.0 (304)
-- Steal %: 12.9 (329)
-- Ratio of assists to field goals made: 60.1% (73)

Defense

-- Effective FG %: 47.3 (59)
-- 3-point FG%: 32.9 (63)
-- 2-point FG%: 46.3 (98)

Frank Elegar

-- Defensive rebounding %: 51st (23.6)
-- Free throw rate: 22nd (82.3%)
-- Block %: 96th (7.0)

La Salle

-- Offensive efficiency: 103.5 (140)
-- Defensive efficiency: 102.4 (191)
-- Tempo: 70.5 poss / 40 mins (65)

Offense

-- Offensive rebounding %: 36.6 (55)
-- 3-point FG %: 40.2 (12)
-- Block %: 13.2 (333)

Defense

-- Offensive rebounding %: 30.3 (65)
-- 3-point FG %: 33.2 (77)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 29.4% (32)

Darnell Harris

-- Offensive rating: 17th (127.1)
-- Effective FG %: 62nd (61.1)
-- Turnover rate: 28th (10.8%)

NOTE: Harris is shooting 49.4% from three-point range, which is certainly one of the top performances in the country. Problem is, the stats sites I've seen don't have minimum minutes requirements. The NCAA's report for games played through Feb. 17, at which time Harris was also shooting 49.4%, had him ranked fourth.

Jerrell Williams

-- Offensive rebounding %: 38th (14.1)

Penn

-- Offensive efficiency: 93.8 (287)
-- Defensive efficiency: 106.0 (270)
-- Tempo: 70.8 poss / 40 mins (55)

Offense

-- Free throw rate: 28.4% (66)
-- 3-point FG %: 29.4 (330)
-- Ratio of assists to FGM: 60.7% (62)

Defense

-- 3-point FG%: 40.1 (330)
-- Block %: 10.7 (80)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 31.5% (77)

NOTE: Harrison Gaines has an assist rate of 42.1%, but is short of the Pomeroy minutes requirement needed to be ranked (40% of possible minutes played). As a result, some weeks he makes it into the ranking and some weeks he doesn't.

St. Joseph's

-- Offensive efficiency: 113.9 (9)
-- Defensive efficiency: 102.0 (178)
-- Tempo: 66.2 poss / 40 mins (205)

Offense

-- Effective FG %: 55.4 (10)
-- Turnover %: 19.5 (69)
-- Free throw rate: 28.9% (50)
-- 3-point FG %: 40.4 (6)
-- 2-point FG %: 52.4 (44)
-- Ratio of assists to FGM: 59.5% ( 83)

Defense

-- Free throw rate: 31.7% (75)
-- Block %: 14.1 (18)
-- Steal %: 11.6 (62)
-- Ratio of assists to FGM: 61.3% (301)

Pat Calathes

-- Offensive rating: 80th (120.5)

Rob Ferguson

-- Effective FG %: 75th (60.6)

Ahmad Nivins

-- Effective FG %: 24th (63.8%)
-- 3-point FG %: 0-0 (0.0%)
-- Free throw rate: 18th (81.7%)

Tasheed Carr

-- Assist rate: 29th (35.1%)

Temple

-- Offensive efficiency: 108.0 (60)
-- Defensive efficiency: 103.6 (220)
-- Tempo: 65.4 poss / 40 mins (242)

Offense

-- Effective FG %: 54.1 (29)
-- Turnover %: 19.0 (47)
-- 3-point FG %: 36.9 (95)
-- 2-point FG %: 53.3 (26)
-- Free throw %: 74.6 (29)
-- Block %: 6.6 (25)
-- Steal %: 9.1 (96)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 39.9% (53)
-- Ratio of assists to FGM: 58.9% (97)

NOTE: The Owls' offense is in the top 100 in nine of the 11 statistical categories Pomeroy tracks.

Defense

-- 2-point FG%: 45.3 (66)
-- Block %: 12.2 (45)

Dionte Christmas

-- Percent of possible minutes played: 15th (92.1)

Mark Tyndale

-- Percent of possible minutes played: 18th (91.8)

Ryan Brooks

-- Turnover rate: 54th (11.7%)

Sergio Olmos

-- Block %: 57th (8.3)

Villanova

-- Offensive efficiency: 106.7 (87)
-- Defensive efficiency: 100.2 (134)
-- Tempo: 69.2 poss / 40 mins (101)

Offense

-- Turnover %: 19.6 (78)
-- Offensive rebounding %: 36.9 (43)
-- Free throw %: 71.5 (93)
-- Block %: 12.4 (324)
-- Steal %: 8.6 (53)

Defense

-- Turnover %: 23.8 (49)
-- Free throw rate: 48.9 (329)
-- Steal %: 11.6 (64)
-- Ratio of three-point attempts to all FGA: 39.7% (311)

NOTE: Villanova's defense is giving up 37.4% three-point shooting, 284th in Division 1. A week ago, the Wildcats were giving up 39.6% from the perimeter, and were ranked 325th. This week's Crunchy Numbers marks the first report since Christmas Day in which the Wildcats are not ranked 300th or below.

ITHACA, N.Y. -- Greetings from the Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, where it's 29 degrees and snowing as I wait to start the trip to Washington. It's one of those classic commuter airports, where the gift shop is combined with the café and the security line doesn't even open until it's time to board.

I covered last night's Penn-Cornell game for the Inquirer, and while the Quakers lost, 87-74, I thought they played their best game of the year and were simply beaten by a much better team. The Big Red are now 6-0 in the Ivy League, and have a grip on the Ancient Eight that any presidential candidate would envy.

Reading the morning's paper online, I see that La Salle also fell but Drexel and Villanova got big wins.

We'll see tomorrow if the Wildcats can keep that momentum going against Georgetown, but I have a feeling that the Hoyas are going to be pretty angry after blowing a lead and losing at Louisville last night. Maybe it was Rick Pitino's change of suits, or maybe it was the resurgence of Cardinals center David Padgett (both of which are dissected here), but I'm sure the Hoyas won't see it that way.

As for today, there might not be a better game anywhere in the country than St. Joe's at Xavier. It would be a monster win for the Hawks if they can get it, but it's going to be really, really hard.

Now about the weather here in central New York, which is just as bad as I feared it would be. The sun was shining when I went for a frigid but otherwise pleasant walk downtown this morning. But it started snowing soon after I started the six-mile drive over here, and it was coming down so hard a few minutes ago that I couldn't see the plane on the tarmac just a few hundred feet away.

It's lightened up a bit somewhat, and checking the radar it seems like things could clear up in time for my 1:30 p.m. departure, but I'd better not jinx it.

I'm fairly sure that turboprop is what I'll be boarding to fly to LaGuardia, where I'll have a two-hour layover before taking a proper jet to the best airport I've ever been to. National Airport, just a few miles down the Potomac River from the Capitol, is a spectacular piece of architecture, with huge skylights and cool art pieces all over the terminal. The food and shops are quite good as well.

For now, though, that all seems really far away. I'm sure that if I was anywhere else I wouldn't have any shot at leaving on time. They're used to this kind of weather up here, though, so we'll see what happens. I'm certainly glad I have a two-hour layover in Queens instead of something shorter.

My travels on Friday prevented me from writing Crunchy Numbers, and I need to head for security soon (at least in theory). But in order to keep the week-by-week ranking comparison fresh, I've put one together that includes results up to today. The full edition will return this coming Friday.

I really don't care for Wing Bowl at all, but given what's sitting atop Philly.com right now, I might as well play along...

Nothing like going out on a Friday and realizing after midnight that I was supposed to do this 12 hours or so earlier...

I was going to do this last night, but then I realized it was Friday, and I decided to actually go out for once. Sorry.

Here goes...

Okay, here goes. This week's table includes conference records instead of Big 5 records. I am also now taking my strength of schedule numbers from the ESPN.com Bracketology Nitty Gritty page.

Amber called her uncle, said "We're up here for the holiday
Jane and I were having Solstice, now we need a place to stay"

-- the opening lines of Dar Williams' "The Christians and the Pagans," sung annually at my high school's holiday assembly and still stuck in my head all these years later. Seriously.

Good morning, everyone, and merry Christmas to all of you out there observing the holiday. It's a working day for me, though, as I've been behind the controls of Philly.com since 6 a.m.

But I've had some great entertainment to keep me company, in the form of known Soft Pretzel Loglc reader (and commenter!) Jon Solomon's holiday music show on WPRB-FM in Princeton. The Inquirer's Dan DeLuca reviewed it a few days ago; if you see this post before 6 p.m., click here to listen to the broadcast.

So with a few minutes to spare (but don't tell the boss), I figured I'd put together a special holiday edition of Crunchy Numbers. This version adds a strength of schedule column. I'm going with overall SOS instead of just non-conference, because I think it includes more data. Convince me to go with non-conference and I'll change it.

And as a special holiday bonus, I've added the teams' Big 5 records in parentheses next to their overall records, including Drexel's record against city teams. But the other schools just have their Big 5 records.

The other numbers in parentheses are last week's stats.

Having said all that, here's the table.

After the jump, the team and invididual stats...

He told his niece, "It's Christmas eve, I know our life is not your style"
She said, "Christmas is like Solstice, and we miss you and it's been awhile"

(NOTE: All numbers are as of the morning of Friday, Dec. 14; which means Villanova's win over Hartford is not factored in.)

We move from the English department to math, as our weekly statistics session comes to order.

(Though we might have to file this stuff under engineering instead of arts and sciences, given how complicated it can be.)

This season, I'm adding the Basketball State ratings to the customary Pomeroy, Sagarin and RPI. The Basketball State formula is way over my head, but it seems to involve a combination of RPI, strength of schedule, location of games and efficiency. And it updates hourly, somehow.

So with that said, here's the first table of the season. I will bring in non-conference strength of schedule next month once that part of the season has started to wrap up.

I find it really interesting that St. Joe's has lost all its big non-conference games but is 25th in Basketball State, while Drexel is over .500 but is 284th (and 253rd in Pomeroy). That's how you know the effect of efficiency stats.

After the jump, we turn to the individual schools...

With the football season finally over, let's take a quick look at where the 10 teams in our local ranking ended this year. But instead of looking at last week's standings, let's compare the teams to where they stood on September 14, when I did this for the first time. As I didn't include Rutgers the first week, their starting number is where they were the next week. I realize that dents the accuracy of the thing somewhat but it's the best I can do.

31. Penn State (13)
42. Rutgers (32)
70. Delaware (77)
94. Villanova (105)
129. Temple (188)
148. Delaware State (162)
165. Lafayette (143)
173. Lehigh (168)
185. Penn (132)
242. La Salle (242)

Well, I think we can easily say that the biggest positive surprise was Temple and the biggest disappointment was Penn. We could have certainly said it without Sagarin's help, but both teams made really dramatic moves.

So we go back to the original two questions, and I ask you:

-- Is Penn State better than Rutgers?

-- Are Villanova and Delaware both better than Temple?

Also, congrats to Robert S. in Aloha, Ore. (which actually exists, believe it or not). He won the Philly.com college football pick'em challenge with 140 points.

The final standings were:

1. Robert S.
2. Myself
3. Fred D. in Charlottesville, Va.
4. Jeff S. in New York City
5. Steffan W. in Elmira, N.Y.
6. Aaron S. in Union, Miss.
7. Zach K. in Philadelphia
8. Josh H. in Narberth
9. Kyle M. in Wayne

Thanks to all of you for playing. Unfortunately, there aren't any prizes for our group, but hopefully we'll be able to make something bigger out of the March Madness contest.

By the way, I have a minor complaint to register. A few of you who comment regularly have been doing so with fake email addresses. I know this because I've tried to contact you outside the blog to follow up on what you've written and your addresses have bounced.

When you post a comment, your email address does not show up to readers. Not even as a link. I see it on the back end of our blog platform and no one else does.

So if you all could help me out with that I'd really appreciate it... and I swear I won't tell anyone else about your info. I hate people who give out personal data just as much as everyone else.

Somehow there's still a week left in the regular season at the I-A level. As Rutgers still has a game left, I guess we have to go yet one more week before we close this thing out. So here we go again...

30. Penn State (30) -- off, season over
38. Rutgers (39) -- off, at Louisville (51) 11/29
81. Delaware (86) -- home win vs. Delaware State (150), at Northern Iowa (40) Dec. 1
98. Villanova (98) -- off, season over
130. Temple (130) -- road loss vs. Western Michigan (106), season over
167. Lafayette (168) -- off, season over
150. Delaware State (144) -- road loss vs. Delaware (81), season over
174. Lehigh (172) -- off, season over
186. Penn (185) -- off, season over
242. La Salle (242) -- off season over

Of note, Northern Iowa is by miles the highest-rated I-AA team. Among the teams ranked below the Panthers are Alabama, Maryland and Louisville.

And now for what has to be the screwiest Top 10 comparison of the season:

So who do you think should be No. 1? And more importantly, who do you think should play for the national championship?

You are looking live at a blog post being written on a bench at 30th Street Station, as I get ready to head out of town for a few days for the holiday.

Fred writes:

All of this college basketball talk about RPI, mid-majors, and these mind-numbing stats is starting to make my head spin. Especially at this stage of the season.

I would like to get back on track to the college football, which captures my attention and energy this time of year.

Q1: Is there any other reason besides what has been stated with LaSalle bagging the program? It never seemed to get much attention locally, both in the papers and on TV. I feel bad for the players and the staff.

Q2: Delaware plays DSU on Friday. Why is the game on Friday? Its the only Friday game of the first round of the I-AA playoff, with the other games being played on Saturday. And, what is the buzz on the game? For years, DSU has been chasing the game, and now they have it.. in a playoff!

Well first of all, don't worry. The basketball stats make my head spin too sometimes.

Part of the reason why La Salle football hasn't gotten much interest is that the MAAC football conference, despite nominally being I-AA, doesn't really play at the same level as the CAA, Patriot League or even the Ivy League.

If you look at the stadium sizes and the level of players (not to mention the conference Sagarin ratings), you'll see the difference. MAAC schools that wanted to have more serious football programs, such as Georgetown and Duquesne, have left or are leaving the conference. Schools that didn't want to make the investment also got rid of their programs.

So we ended up with only four teams in the conference, as Joe Juliano noted in his story about all this. I think that's a legit argument.

I'm not sure about the money involved, because La Salle gets A-10 basketball money and they haven't really traveled far to play. And I can easily name you a non-scholarship program in the region that La Salle isn't playing, as can we all. But I'm pretty sure Penn's schedules are set from now until either 2010 or 2011, and I doubt the Explorers would want to wait around.

Now, that shouldn't necessarily have prevented the two teams from playing in past years. Penn played Duquesne, another MAAC team, in 2003 and 2005. The games weren't close, but at least they existed.

I feel bad for the players and the staff too. But I have a couple colleagues at Philly.com who attended La Salle in recent years, and they tell me that there wasn't much interest in football on campus. I'm sure that didn't help things either.

As for that Delaware State-Delaware game, it's at 1:30 p.m. Friday because ESPN says it is. That's no surprise, but it's a nice move to pick that game for national exposure. It's a great storyline and it while the Blue Hens definitely have the better players, it would be cool if the Hornets pulled off the upset.

It's nice to know that Delaware coach K.C. Keeler wants to play the series regularly, but given the (not-so-subtly racist) history between the two schools, I'll believe it when I see it.

I'm sure it will be a great atmosphere in Newark -- it always is -- and I'd love to be there, but I'll be at the Philly Classic.

After the jump, let's crunch some numbers.

Sorry it took me so long to get to this; I've been working on a couple of big projects all week. There's some good stuff in both papers today that I don't have time to link to but check the headlines feed at right.

34. Penn State (29) - home loss vs. Ohio State (2)
42. Rutgers (28) - home loss vs. West Virginia (5)
72. Delaware (98) - road win at Navy (78)
96. Villanova (111) - home win vs. Hofstra (102)
129. Temple (117) - off
140. Delaware State (146) - road win at South Carolina State (153)
151. Lehigh (161) - road win at Georgetown (231)
190. Lafayette (187) - road loss at Colgate (154)
201. Penn (186) - road loss vs. Brown (184)
242. La Salle (242) - home loss vs. Assumption (n/a)

What a huge win that was for Delaware. It's no coincidence that on yesterday's ESPN college football podcast, Mel Kiper pronounced Blue Hens quarterback Joe Flacco and stud running back Omar Cuff to be legit NFL prospects.

And the First State's other representative here got a shoutout from Mike Kern as the local team of the week in his column this past Monday.

Now for the Top 10 chart:

That's some difference between the computers and the humans. Who do you believe?

Fred asks some very good questions in a comment attached to the last post. It's a long comment, so I don't want to paste it here. But read it, then come back for my answer...

I definitely agree about the bad attendances at Franklin Field. It doesn't help in terms of creating buzz that they haven't won a league title since 2003, but that shouldn't be an excuse. And it certainly isn't an excuse for the many people who sleep in past the kickoff, throw their toast and go home.

I think part of it is that so many people focus on basketball first, and at this point, by some distance. Which is probably the case at most of the schools in the region, and that's to be expected given that our basketball teams are far more relevant on the national stage than football.

Having said that, I think Villanova football draws well enough -- an average of 9,520 fans per game, which is 76 percent of capacity. I have to think that goes up with Hofstra and Delaware as the last two home games.

Penn's average in two home games is 10,273, but having been at both of those I have a bit of a hard time believing it. And obviously, the percent capacity comparison doesn't work with Franklin Field.

I also think Temple is drawing better than it used to from its fan base. I phrase it that way because the Owls used to play big teams at home and get lots of visiting fans, and that doesn't even include what Penn State will bring next month. I was impressed by the turnout at the Navy game, though, and I will be very interested to see what the attendance at the Linc is this Saturday, though. I would hope it's big.

Anyway, your greater point of why bother doing this is also a good one, and I do have an answer for it. It goes back to 2003 when Villanova beat Temple at the Linc. It got me to thinking about exactly what the best football team in the region is.

Now that I have the blog, I figured that I could try to find some statistical way of answering the question and bridging that gap between the lower end of I-A and the upper end of I-AA. As Sagarin includes both divisions, I figured that would be a good thing to try. It obviously isn't perfect, and maybe I'll be able to find a different method for next season.

More after the jump, because this thing is getting long...

We begin with breaking news from the Daily News that Penn State defensive end Jerome Hayes will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL.

Elsewhere in the People Paper, Bernard Fernandez recaps the Wisconsin-Penn State and interviews some alums who aren't too concerned about the various controversies this season.

On the national scene, Mike Kern breaks down how Ohio State and South Florida rose to the top of the BCS standings, and writes his usual Monday wrap of all the big local and national action.

In the Inquirer, Frank Fitzpatrick writes the second part of his series on college athletics fundraising. It takes a hard look at controversial Oklahoma State booster T. Boone Pickens, as well as a few glances at big money that has come to Penn State and Temple recently.

Jeff McLane writes about Penn State's big uglies in the trenches, and their big role in the Wisconsin win, and wonders whether College GameDay will show up for the Ohio State game. It wouldn't surprise me; it also wouldn't surprise me if the show goes to Columbus this week.

And speaking of the Nittany Lions, Mel Greenberg looks at the women's hoops squad's first season under new coach Coquese Washington.

Now for the local Sagarin chart:

24. Penn State (28) - home win vs. Wisconsin (44)
38. Rutgers (39) - road win vs. Syracuse (115)
109. Delaware (99) - home win vs. Northeastern (165)
111. Villanova (113) - road loss vs. Massachusetts (82)
124. Temple (141) - road win vs. Akron (94)
148. Lehigh (141) - road loss at Yale (90)
155. Delaware State (161) - road win at North Carolina A&T (239)
175. Lafayette (164) - road loss at Harvard (146)
187. Penn (184) - road win at Columbia (224)
242. La Salle (242) - road loss at Marist (236)

If you're a Temple fan, you're ecstatic that your team beat a Top 100 team on the road and got the kind of jump it deserves for it. And maybe you can start to dream of jumping Villanova with another win or two if the Wildcats don't run the table.

If you're a Villanova fan, you're hopefully satisfied with how your team played, not least because UMass is the fifth-highest I-AA team in Sagarin. You're also probably really looking forward to that Delaware game at the end of the season, and perhaps wondering if a playoff berth might be at stake that night if you do run the table.

If you're a Penn fan, you're even more scared of Yale running back Mike McLeod than you already were, because he's the biggest reason why the Ivy League has a Top 100 team in a pretty bad year overall for the league. And you're even more aware of just how bad Columbia is when your team wins a road game but falls two spots in the ranking.

If you're anyone else, you see how hard it is to move up if all you do is beat a bad team. And if you're me, you're an idiot, but you've been called worse plenty of times before.

After the jump, the national Top 10 table.

Nothing like having all hell break loose, is there?

This week, I've also listed who each team played this past weekend, how they fared, and what the opponent's current rank is.

I would like to chart each team's movement at the end of the season, just to see what it looks like. So that's one of the reasons for me to keep this up.

28. Penn State (48) - home win vs. Iowa (70)
39. Rutgers (38) - home loss vs. Cincinnati (11)
99. Delaware (89) - road loss vs. New Hampshire (110)
108. Villanova (113) - home win vs. William & Mary (148)
147. Lehigh (131) - road loss vs. Fordham (176)
141. Temple (151) - home win vs. Northern Illinois (130)
161. Delaware State (156) - home win vs. Bethune-Cookman (219)
164. Lafayette (167) - home win vs. Columbia (214)
185. Penn (181) - home win vs. Georgetown (227)
242. La Salle (242) - home loss vs. Iona (222)

Penn State makes the biggest jump, as well they should have. I'm surprised that Rutgers only fell one spot, but then again I'm genuinely shocked that Cincinnati is ranked that high. The Bearcats are higher than Boston College, South Carolina and Kentucky.

Temple also makes a big jump. It tells you a lot about just how good former Northern Illinois running back Garrett Wolfe was that the Huskies are ranked as low as they are this year.

(I bet the last of those three makes folks in southern Ohio quite happy. People I know who live there tell me they hate Kentucky because they consider that area theirs. UK has a big alumni base in Cincinnati, and and Wildcats games are broadcast there on the radio.)

Penn and Villanova get screwed by not having margin of victory factored into the system, though it says something about just how bad Georgetown is that Penn beat them and fell anyway.

(And yes, Georgetown is that bad.)

The worst loss of the week prize goes to Lehigh even if it was on the road. Let's see whether they're still higher-ranked than Lafayette come the end of the season.

After the jump, the Top 10 comparison...

So you've probably noticed by now that Philly.com launched its redesign over the weekend. It's been taking up a lot of my time, but now I have at least a few minutes to come back and see what this week's football stats are.

So let's have a look at the local scene...

21. Rutgers (32)
47. Penn State (40)
86. Delaware (93)
106. Villanova (107)
127. Lehigh (139)
161. Temple (166)
162. Lafayette (139)
175. Penn (165)
185. Delaware State (162)
242. La Salle (242)

The biggest jump of the week is Lehigh, though none of the teams did exceptionally well. Rutgers jumps 11 spots without playing, which probably says quite a bit about how weird a season this has been in college football.

I'm surprised Villanova didn't move higher after beating Penn, but it was a home win and margin doesn't count. It's noteworthy, though, that Villanova is ranked higher than Syracuse (110) even after the Orange won at Louisville. If that stays the case all year it would make an interesting rollout come basketball season.

Then again, the Cardinals are in Mike Kern's Fraud Five.

Penn State fell less than I thought it would, though they were a bit low to start with and Michigan (44) is pretty close to the Nittany Lions in the rankings. Lafayette falls the farthest after being upset at home by Princeton.

Now for the Top 10 comparison. I'm adding in the Harris poll this week because it counts for 1/3 of the BCS standings. Once the BCS standings start, I will swap Harris out for the BCS.

If ever there was a team whose computer stats seem inflated compared to the human eye, it seems to be Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played Youngstown State (82), Akron (83), Northwestern (99), and Washington (36). The first three of those are a lot higher than I expected, especially Northwestern, which lost at home to Duke.

But I think Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan could all beat Ohio State pretty easily. Even after seeing the Nittany Lions struggle in Ann Arbor this past weekend.

Other than that, the big discrepancy seems to be whether Boston College or Rutgers deserves to be in the Top 10. Both teams have Philly ties, so if there are any fans out there of either school let me know what you think.

I just stumbled across the Sagarin football ratings for the first time, and was pleasantly surprised to find that it includes all the I-A and I-AA teams. This lets us have a look at how the Delaware Valley's teams stack up against each other, at least by one measurement. But it's an important measurement, as it's one of the many used to calculate the BCS standings.

Sagarin has a very significant flaw, though: the score margin of a win/loss is not factored in at all. This is obviously very important in football, especially in the eyes of the voters who make the human-based polls. But Sagarin does give weight to games played at home versus away.

So here goes, and I'll include Penn State in this one even though they're obviously miles away from everyone else.

13. Penn State
77. Delaware
105. Villanova
132. Penn
143. Lafayette
162. Delaware State
168. Lehigh
188. Temple
242. La Salle

For better or worse, La Salle is ranked higher than only "243 ***UNRATED***."

If there are any other teams you think I should include, let me know. I'll try to do this each week, probably on Mondays from now on.

And as far as the national scale goes, here's how Sagarin's Top 10 compares to the AP and coaches' polls. Of note, the data does NOT include West Virginia's win at Maryland last night.

I'm not sure how much credence I put in Sagarin this early in the season -- it isn't very accurate early in the basketball season either, for that matter -- but is interesting just how different Sagarin is from the human polls.

The lack of score margin factor is obviously the biggest thing. It's the most obvious reason for West Virginia (22) and Florida (11) not being in the Sagarin Top 10. But I think it also says something about non-conference strength of schedule.

Maryland is the only non-Big East, BCS-conference team West Virginia is playing this year. So while the 31-14 scoreline won't matter, the fact that the game was in College park will, Florida's two wins so far have been blowouts of Western Kentucky (122) and Troy (90), both at home.

I would expect the Sagarin ratings to change quite dramatically in the weeks to come. If nothing else, I'll probably keep this feature going just to see how close it comes to the human rankings.

I'm just going to get these done all at once, so bear with me because this post is pretty long and I'm not going to use the jump.

Temple

-- Pomeroy: 127 (108) (I suspect the loss to Dayton hurt quite a bit in this one)
-- RPI: 162 (156)
-- Sagarin: 142 (135)

-- Record: 12-17 (6-10 conf.)

-- Offensive efficiency: 58
-- Defensive efficiency: 271
-- Tempo: 71 (69.8 possessions per 40 minutes)

-- Effective FG %: 56
-- Turnover % given up: 28
-- Offensive rebounding %: 298
-- 3-point FG %: 97
-- 2-point FG %: 57
-- Steal % given up: 8
-- Ratio of threes to all field goal attempts: 65
-- Offensive rebounding % given up: 271 (that doesn't help)
-- Free throw % given up: 331
-- Ratio of assists to field goals made given up: 256

Dion Dacons

-- Offensive rating: 71
-- Effective FG %: 51

Saint Joseph's

-- Pomeroy: 87 (84)
-- RPI: 92 (83)
-- Sagarin: 106 (104)

-- Record: 17-13 (9-7 conf.)

-- Offensive efficiency: 60
-- Defensive efficiency: 178
-- Tempo: 296 (62.8 possessions per 40 minutes)

-- Effective FG %: 77
-- Offensive rebounding %: 46
-- Free throw rate: 62
-- 3-point FG %: 37
-- Free throw %: 90
-- Steal % given up: 315
-- Ratio of threes to all field goal attempts: 280
-- Turnover % forced: 252
-- 3-point FG % given up: 70
-- Block % forced: 57
-- Steal % forced: 68
-- Ratio of threes to all FG attempts given up: 89

Ahmad Nivins

-- Free throw rate: 23

D.J. Rivera

-- Steal percentage: 91

Villanova

-- Pomeroy: 127 (20)
-- RPI: 162 (19)
-- Sagarin: 22 (29)

-- Record: 21-9 (9-7 conf.)

-- Offensive efficiency: 62
-- Defensive efficiency: 56
-- Tempo: 168 (66.8 possessions per 40 minutes)

-- Offensive rebounding %: 8
-- Free throw rate: 23
-- Free throw %: 1
-- Block % given up: 326
-- Ratio of threes to all FG attempts: 56
-- Effective FG % given up: 98
-- Turnover % forced: 43
-- Offensive rebounding % given up: 85
-- Free throw rate given up: 262
-- 2-point FG%: 33
-- Block % forced: 72
-- Steal % forced: 31
-- Ratio of threes to all FG attempts given up: 314

Curtis Sumpter

-- Percentage of team's shots taken while on the floor: 97

Dante Cunningham

-- Assist rate: 63

La Salle is done for the season, so here are their numbers to close things out:

-- Pomeroy: 208 (198)
-- RPI: 267 (273)
-- Sagarin: 243 (246)

-- Record: 10-20 (3-13)

-- Offensive efficiency: 124
-- Defensive efficiency: 303 (yikes)
-- Tempo: 110 (68.2 possessions per 40 minutes)

-- Turnover percentage given up: 266
-- Offensive rebounding percentage: 12
-- Steal percentage given up: 301
-- Ratio of threes to all field goals attempted: 299
-- Effective FG % given up: 253
-- Turnover percentage forced: 310
-- 2-point FG % given up: 265
-- Free throw percentage given up: 336
-- Block percentage forced: 303

Kimmani Barrett

-- Offensive rating: 75

And... that's all. Not the world's most pleasant reading, it has to be said, but literally half the roster is freshmen. So the old "wait 'til next year" line has some merit this time.

Still, I hope someone votes for the Explorers in the poll.

With Drexel's regular season complete, here are the Dragons' numbers as of this morning. Last week's numbers are in parentheses:

-- Pomeroy: 83 (85)
-- RPI: 45 (49)
-- Sagarin: 72 (79)

-- Record: 22-7 (13-5 conf.)

-- Offensive efficency: 173
-- Defensive efficiency: 23
-- Tempo: 251 (64.8 possessions per 40 minutes)

-- Free throw rate: 25
-- Effective FG % given up: 21
-- Offensive rebounding % given up: 55
-- 3-point FG % given up: 93
-- 2-point FG % given up: 14
-- Block % forced: 27
-- Steal % forced: 36
-- Ratio of threes to all field goals given up: 28
-- Ratio of assists to field goals made: 61

Chaz Crawford

-- Offensive rebounding %: 15
-- Defensive rebounding %: 34
-- Free throw rate: 81
-- Block percentage: 17

Frank Elegar

-- Percentage of team's shots taken while on the floor: 87
-- Free throw rate: 87

Bashir Mason

-- Steal percentage: 40

Now, the question is, can they do it today against Northeastern and tomorrow against (presumably) VCU? Stay tuned.

And third, I got rid of Typekey-based commenting because people were having trouble registering for it. It should be easier to comment now, but again, please take your stocks, drugs and porn elsewhere. Thanks. Alright, let's do this.

There wasn't much movement since last week. That's in large part because La Salle, Temple and St. Joe's only played once since then; of course, the latter two play tonight and that will have a big effect. Villanova lost twice, which is why they fell a bit, but they lost to very good teams, and the worse loss rankings-wise was on the road, so there's not much damage. Penn moved the most because it won twice. Drexel won twice, but it's high enough in the rankings that its previous losses leave it without that much room to move up. Pretty simple. So let's get to odds and ends, after the jump as always.

Throw in a couple eggs, some flour, sugar, a little yeast, and maybe some cinnamon and a few raisins for dramatic effect, stick it in the oven for a while, and you get something resembling my thoughts on the data:

-- Over the last three weeks, St. Joe's' RPI has gone from 84 to 94 and back to 84 again. Might have something to do with the fact that last night marked the Hawks' first two-game winning streak since Jan. 10.

-- Villanova also went 2-0 in the last week, but didn't move much because they can't go too much higher until they start running into the really big teams. It's worth noting that the Wildcats have the third-highest Pomeroy rating in the Big East, but are in seventh place in the conference standings.

-- With Temple, I think the lack of movement relative to last Thursday results only from the fact that I haven't checked the numbers for a week. I would think that yesterday morning they were much higher on Monday, after the UMass win, than they were this morning after the loss at La Salle. And no, I am not going to start doing this twice a week.

-- Drexel and La Salle also went 1-1 since last week's Crunchy Numbers. The fact that Drexel didn't move in the RPI between last Thursday and today is a testament to how strong the CAA is this season. For as good as the win at Hofstra was, last night's loss at William and Mary really stunk (the Tribe are 166th in Pomeroy and 171st in RPI), and I expected the Dragons to be knocked down for it. The fact that La Salle didn't move much in any of the ratings shows, for better or worse, how far down the ratings the Explorers are.

Odds and ends after the jump.

Hmm.

-- Drexel fell a bit because of the Old Dominion loss, but because ODU is ranked higher (68) in Pomeroy, it wasn't too big of a hit. But given that the Dragons have dropped 12 spots over the last three weeks, tonight's game at Hofstra is really, really big. A win would do wonders for the rankings, and might (might) make the Creighton game not a must-win. But that scenario would probably also require a run to the final of the CAA Tournament. Still, it all starts tonight.

-- La Salle did take a big hit, and it's because the loss last night to Duquesne was at home. Yes, the Dukes are 6-4 in conference play, but they're 10-11 overall. The La Salle-St. Joe's game Saturday is La Salle's home game, which could make the RPI and Pomeroy numbers look really bad next week even if the place is all Hawks fans. The Explorers' RPI didn't fall so much this week because it was already low to begin with.

-- Penn didn't fall nearly as much in the RPI as I thought they would after the Yale loss, but being 3-1 on the road in conference play will do that. And Yale has the second-highest RPI in the conference. But the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings took a big hit because Penn was supposed to win those games but didn't.

Here's the thing, though -- and I hate to go off on a Penn tangent but this is one of the weird things that happens sometimes when you get deep into the stats. Pomeroy's season prediction had Penn finishing at 13-1 in the Ivy League. I figured initially that wouldn't change, but now he has the Quakers finishing 12-2. It must be the Princeton game at the end of the season, but given Penn's recent struggles at Yale and Princeton being 0-4 in the league I'm a bit surprised.

-- Seems to me that St. Joe's fell farther than a loss at a team of Villanova's rank might justify. But this is another case of a team doing something that conform to the Pomeroy prediction, in this case losing by 17 and only scoring 39 points in a game. Still, the Hawks are close to back where they were two weeks ago rankings-wise, and the team hasn't either won or lost two in a row since Jan. 17. So that probably has something to do with it too.

-- Yes, Temple beat a bunch of bad teams, and did so at home, which is why the RPI actually fell. Nonetheless, the Owls' 32-spot jump in Pomeroy shows that three blowout wins will bump you up no matter who they're against. Better news for Temple fans: Pomeroy's predicting a 79-78 win over UMass, though with only a 53 percent probability.

-- Even though Villanova's has a losing record in conference play, those rating numbers are outstanding. If the Wildcats can get to .500, they'll have a very good resume to present to the selection committee. And if they get above that mark -- which is certainly doable, because most of the remaining games are pretty easy -- the ratings and resume will be really good.

Odds and ends after the jump.

So what do we know?

-- That Drexel's loss to Virginia Commonwealth didn't do too much damage, but I suspect tonight's game against Old Dominion could reverse the Dragons' slight drop.

-- That La Salle got a bump up, but I'm not sure from what, given its losses to Fordham and Charlotte. Then again, the Rams (131) and 49ers (139) are far higher in Pomeroy than the previous two teams La Salle played, Saint Bonaventure (248) and Richmond (260). -- That Penn definitely took a hit with the St. Joe's loss, especially because it was classified as a home game. If the Quakers go 14-0 in the Ivy League and end up with a 12 seed, which is possible (though not necessarily probable), it might not matter too much. But a win over the Hawks could have either solidified a 12 or bumped it up to an 11 with an unbeaten run through the conference. Then again, that's also a big assumption.

-- That St. Joe's got a bump from beating Penn but hasn't played since. Obviously, but still, there hasn't been another opportunity for significant movement in the rankings. Two games in the next four days will help that, though: Saint Louis tonight and Dayton on Sunday, both at home.

By the way, I still think that if the Penn-St. Joe's game had been classified as a St. Joe's home game, Penn wouldn't have been picked by Pomeroy's simulator to win it. I get the rules about venues, which basically say that it's Penn's home game the rest of the year so it is for that game too. But you and I and everyone else who was in the building know that it was a St. Joe's game in every way -- from the logo on the credentials to the public address announcer to the big majority of Hawks fans in the stands.

-- That Temple's loss at Pomeroy No. 203 Duquesne wasn't fully offset by the win at No. 260 Richmond, which is also rather obvious.

-- And that Villanova lost two games to higher-rated teams, and that it's far from the end of the world, even though one of the losses was at home.

The usual roundup of statistical odds and ends after the jump.

Here's an interesting stat from last night's Penn-St. Joe's game that wasn't in the box score: both teams recorded 67 possessions. You might remember that in last week's Crunchy Numbers, I noted that Penn averaged 69.8 possessions per game and St. Joe's averaged 62.2 possessions per game (or, to be truer to the definition, per 40 minutes).

The halfway point between those two numbers is 66. I thought watching the game that Penn was playing at a pace slower than what it usually does, which turned out to be the case. But the Quakers were able to get St. Joe's to at least play somewhat faster than normal.

By the way, the formula for computing the number of possessions in the game is this: Field goal attempts minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus 0.475 times the number of free throw attempts.

It makes sense, in that a second-chance basket comes on the same possession as the first shot, and a possession with no shot resulted in a turnover. As for the 0.475, I understand that a bunch of people researched it for a while and settled on that number. I'm certainly not going to bother arguing.

A very busy day today, but something ought to be on schedule. So here's the latest table of where the City Six stand in the major statistical rankings. Last week's rankings are in parentheses:

I'm not going to go so far as to say I confused myself trying to interpret the changes, but there are certainly some interesting conclusions to draw. Drexel's up reasonably in Pomeroy and Sagarin and down big in RPI, which reflects the fact that the Dragons beat two bad teams at home and one mediocre-to-bad team on the road. RPI only counts who you played, while the other two factor in where the game was and Pomeroy also includes an element of margin of victory.

Penn's the opposite -- up in RPI, down in Pomeroy and Sagarin. The Quakers aren't helped by the fact that last night's close win over Temple was a home game... and more importantly, they aren't helped by the fact that the wins over Temple and La Salle were by a combined five three points.

But the best number of the week by far belongs to St. Joe's -- a 26-place jump in the RPI. That came almost entirely from the Xavier win, as last night's reasonable (RPI-wise) loss at No. 68 GW didn't hurt too much. What's more interesting about the Hawks, though, is that they have been consistently creeping closer to a win over Penn in Ken Pomeroy's prediction machine. Penn's margin of victory was somewhere around six points earlier in the season, and it's now down to one. The Quakers' chance of winning the game is down to 55 percent after being in the 60s earlier.

Odds and ends after the jump.

Obviously, Villanova is in the best shape. The Notre Dame win was the Wildcats' second over a Pomeroy Top 20 team, but unless the Irish start winning conference games on the road that stat won't last much longer. The Oklahoma win will also look good as the Sooners beat lesser Big 12 teams. Although DePaul is ranked higher in Pomeroy (38) than Drexel, I think Nova's loss to the Blue Demons will look worse than the loss to Drexel in the end, because DePaul hasn't played any other of the power teams in the Big East yet.

Drexel's body of work is looking pretty good too. Yes, the Rider loss is bad. But if Villanova and Syracuse (20 Pomeroy / 36 RPI) keep winning, that will only enhance the Dragons' chances of getting an at-large bid. If Penn keeps winning, it will make that loss to the Quakers increasingly palatable. Right now, I think Drexel does deserve an at-large spot. It sure would help, though, if the Dragons could beat take at least two of their three forthcoming games with the other CAA teams at the top of the pack -- VCU, Old Dominion and Hofstra.

Despite Penn's strong non-conference strength of schedule, Drexel is currently the only chance the Quakers have at finishing the season with a quality win. But it would definitely be in the Quakers' interest to run the table the rest of the way -- especially in the Ivy League. That would be the best way to avoid anything resembling last year's situation, where two conference losses stuck Penn with a 15 seed and a date with Texas in Dallas. 14-0 in the league would look very, very good to the selection committee; 13-1 wouldn't be the worst thing, but better safe than sorry.

(EDIT: Yes, that's a change from the original version, because I got some better RPI information a friend who deals with this stuff more often than I do. But that's the joy of having a blog.)

St. Joe's is very interesting. Though the Hawks don't have a quality win as of now, they have a lot of chances coming to get one -- two games each against Xavier and GW, and a home finale with UMass. I'm far from convinced that St. Joe's can win the A-10, but if they do and they beat one of the bigger teams in the conference, they might get a decent seed.

You might think that Temple's less-than-stellar record would put them in a similar place in the rankings, but it doesn't. That's in part because the Owls played at Duke and Villanova, but they do have a RPI Top 100 win over Long Beach State. Given the, uh, lack of quality in the Big West, that might remain the case for the rest of the season if LBSU keeps winning.

Finally, as I said yesterday, La Salle's situation is quite clear. But I'm going to stick my neck out in one respect. Pomeroy is currently projecting that La Salle will win at St. Bonaventure by three points, and that there's a 60-percent chance that La Salle will win in general. I'll predict that La Salle will win, and by more than that.

After the jump, some other tidbits.

Not that I expect to be frequently quoting 18th-century philosophers, but I still remember quite well reading John Locke's famous treatise for which this post is named in a political science class. And there are plenty of stranger cultural references out there on blogs within walking distance of Philly.com's offices.

Tomorrow, I will roll out the first full-featured Crunchy Numbers post. It will include the Pomeroy, Sagarin and RPI ratings for each of the City Six, and any other stats about the teams I find interesting.

Now, I have a lot of friends around college basketball who make a huge deal out of stats and drawing conclusions from them. I agree that some of them are very good things to know. Offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and ratio of three-pointers to field goals come to mind right away.

But stats aren't everything to me. I still think there's such a thing as clutch, and that a small, cramped gym with raucous students can get in a player's head and make him miss a shot he'd make in a 20,000-seat arena with skyboxes and a few jumbotrons.

I believe that a great player will step up when his team is faltering late on the road and hit a big shot to silence the home crowd, no matter what his usual offensive efficiency is. Randy Foye did it against Penn last season after the Quakers mounted a huge second-half run to cut 'Nova's lead from 21 points to four. With just over a minute to play, Foye pulled a crossover dribble and nailed a 13-foot jumper without flinching in the least. That's something that I don't think a page of stats can accurately represent.

Here's another example. La Salle's best RPI win this season is against No. 234 Texas Pan-American. But I'm impressed that the Explorers' last five losses have been by two, six, three, eight and two points. So while Penn should rightly be favored to beat the Explorers tomorrow night, I wouldn't go assuming that it will be all that easy.

I'm sure everyone I know west of the Schuylkill will call me an idiot for saying that, but it took a while for the Quakers to get going Friday night against a Cornell team only four spots higher in the Pomeroy rankings than La Salle.

At least college basketball hasn't yet become like baseball, where entire franchise organizations run themselves off numbers instead of what you see with your own eyes. I mean, I appreciate a guy with a high OPS as much as anyone, but I love the fact that Phillies GM Pat Gillick flies all over the place to see players the team is scouting in person. Buster Olney wrote a great piece on his ESPN.com blog about Gillick today, and how he's creating a lineup of "players who score high in intangibles among scouts."

I think you can see how that translates to college basketball. Though it will feed the hype machine even more, Kevin Durant is a great example. He got tons of praise from the ESPN2 crew last night not just for his 37 points, but for how and when they came. Fighting in traffic for a putback layup. Moving across the court off the ball to fire a jumper straight in off an inbounds pass. A three to tie the game at 91 with 1:01 to go in the second overtime, and a layup-and-one to give Texas the lead with 12 seconds to play in the third OT.

That's the stuff that defines a great college player to me.

Photo of Randy Foye driving against BC's Sean Marshall in the 2006 NCAA Tournament taken by Yong Kim of the Daily News.

One of the many blogs I read each day is the D.C. Sports Bog by Dan Steinberg. I read it in part because I've met the author before and in part because it's a well-written and quite funny take on sports in the next metropolitan area over the Mason-Dixon Line from here.

Well, I was pretty taken aback just now when I read the headline "Washington Post: The CAA Does Not Exist." Apparently, in the Post's weekly bracket projection that came out this past Saturday, no CAA team was included. As in, there wasn't even one given an automatic bid.

But there was one caveat. Steinberg couldn't confirm that this actually happened. I can: it's right here.

I must politely disagree with that bracket. Okay, maybe not quite politely, but I'll try. First of all, I suspect the CAA will indeed get its automatic bid. But there's little doubt in my mind that the CAA should be a multiple-bid conference this year. How can you deny that to a conference with the following characteristics:

-- Four teams in the Pomeroy Top 100 (Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason and Drexel, in that order);

-- Five teams in the RPI Top 100 (Drexel, Hofstra, VCU, ODU and Mason, in that order);

-- Five teams in the Sagarin Top 100 (VCU, Drexel, ODU, Hofstra and Mason, in that order);

-- And five teams in the top 100 in the non-conference strength of schedule rankings (Northeastern, Drexel, George Mason, UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra, in that order). By contrast, there are only two such teams in the Big East, one each in the ACC and Big Ten and three in the SEC.

On this week's College HoopsCast, Mike Jensen asserted that it's "quite possible" that the CAA could get three bids this year. I also think the CAA is quite strong -- maybe not three bids strong, but certainly two.

Oh, and that Post article calls Villanova a "typical middling Big East team" and seeds it as a 12, and seeds Penn as a 16 in what is "not the finest year for the Ivy."

I feel like I'm going to run out of space if I try to counter those assertions, so I'll let you see for yourself why I see things differently.

Credit where it's due: Inquirer photographer Charles Fox took the picture of Drexel coach Bruiser Flint giving an opinion to the refs during the Hofstra game last week.

The latest Pomeroy ratings for the City Six teams.

22. Villanova
57. Drexel
86. Saint Joseph's
90. Penn
101. Temple
235. La Salle

Of note: Villanova is 11th in the nation in offensive efficency with a rating of 119.1, 3rd in the nation in free throw shooting (78.9 percent), and 26th in the offensive rebounding percentage it allows its opponents (28.8 percent).

Drexel is 21st in the country in defensive efficiency with a rating of 86.4.

Saint Joseph's is 30th in the country in defensive 3-point field goal ratio, i.e., the percentage of its opponents' shots that are three-pointers, at 28.2 percent.

Penn 14th in the country in its ratio of assists to field goals made at 67.4 percent.

La Salle is 17th in the country in offensive rebound percentage, the percentage of possible rebounds gathered by the offense, at 40.5 percent.

Temple is 31st in the country in the effective field goal percentage (three-pointers count double) it allows it opponents at 44.8 percent, and 32nd in the country in turnover percentage (turnovers per possession) at 18.7 percent.