As we noted in a story in the Inquirer today, the overwhelming consensus in the weather community is that this will be a mild winter.
WSI Corp., a Massachusetts concern that supplies forecasts to energy companies, is predicting that after a chilly December, the winter will flip, a la 1989 (see Almanac, Nov. 20).
WSI meteorologist Todd Crawford, one of the best in the dicey long-range forecasting business, believes that the next three months could see extreme cold in December and radical warmth in January and February.
Crawford, as have others, cites the impressive La Nina in the equatorial Pacific where waters are cooler than normal over an area bigger than the continental United States.
La Nina has an affect on the jet stream, the upper-air boundary between warm and cold air. The farther south the jet stream wanders, the more cold penetrates into the United States.
The thinking this season is that the west-to-east jet stream will tend to stay to the north. All the cool water over the Pacific would push the confrontation zone between warmth and cold farther the north.
It would take until January for the effects to fully mature, but forecasters are confident this scenario will play out as expected.
If they are wrong, it would a triumph over nature over prognostication. Let’s just say it wouldn’t be the first one.
Comments (5)
"Typically, in the eastern U.S., La Nina means a warm October and a cold December," Crawford said in the press release. But ocean temperatures in the northern Pacific indicate a colder October in the Northeast, he said"
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2623269820070926
Todd Crawford dug hisself a big ol' hole back in SEP when he predicted a 'below normal' OCT and an 'above normal' NOV in the NE. Most...if not all...stations in the NE were 7 - 9°F above normal last month and are running a few degrees below normal this month.
The call for 'warmer than normal' NOV in the NE was also made in his late OCT update.
Still along way to go in LR forecasting.
Posted by TQ | November 20, 2007 11:19 AM
Posted on November 20, 2007 11:19
Bad news for snow lovers means good news for people like me who prefer mild winters and lower fuel oil bills.
Posted by Mike B. | November 20, 2007 12:32 PM
Posted on November 20, 2007 12:32
TQ, Very good point about the earlier WSI forecast and it quickly was forgotten by many, myself included, because of the deluge of winter forecasts from everywhere.
With so many pro meteorologists on TV, online, and elsewhere giving out thoughts as to what, why, and how much for Philly it can overload the senses and sometimes the bad calls quickly can be forgotten.
Posted by Tom, Phillyweather.net | November 21, 2007 9:20 AM
Posted on November 21, 2007 09:20
My word, how will the oil companies survive if we have a mild winter?
Posted by Ray | November 25, 2007 11:27 AM
Posted on November 25, 2007 11:27
Moderate ninas on average mean normal temps for the Philly area. Strong ninas on average mean warmer than normal temps for the Philly area. Since 1950 neither one has been conducive for "big" snows as the eight winter sample has average about 15.5". Every once in a while, one does occur like Jan 2000, but these winters tend to feature either smaller or more mixed precip type events. The current enso is borderline moderate/strong. I suppose if the nina was to collapse (warm) this might salvage some cold if that is what one likes. Relative to normal climatologically speaking December is the coldest month of the winter in strong ninas while February is the coldest month relative to normal in moderate la ninas. Not that nature always follows a script...
Posted by anthony gigi | November 28, 2007 8:39 AM
Posted on November 28, 2007 08:39