By Mel Greenberg
PHILADELPHIA _ These are the days when talk about starting the NCAA women's basketball season a month later after finals and the Christmas break doesn't seem like such a bad idea.
That's only because after undergoing a heavy slate of games, a signficant number of which may have already determined some premium designations, we are basically sitting around in a lull waiting for momentum to begin anew.
For some coaches, the time is a blessing because once finals are done they can act like they are coaching in the WNBA for a week or so or more where basketball is the only course being taught.
So where are we in the scheme of things?
Like the presidential election campaign which may come to an earlier moment than in the past because of the move up of primary voting in the states, so do the No. 1 seeds for the NCAA tournament seem to be already established way ahead of schedule because of the major confrontations that have occurred in nonconference play.
Tennessee would need to suffer major injuries to be dislodged since the Vols don't appear that they will lose many games the rest of the way, though some challenges could come in SEC competition.
The same goes likewise for Connecticut, although complete slips against LSU, North Carolina and the majority of Big East losses to Rutgers could cause a drop to No. 2. Losses alone to Rutgers, however, wouldn't be harmful since the Scarlet Knights are also in play for a No. 1 and the only item that would be decided is who got the stronger overall seed.
Maryland has also proven its worth unless Duke and North Carolina wreak havoc in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Rutgers, even with the high wire act, is in good shape with the only major deals left are the visit to Tennessee and the UConn games, which is not to say the rest of the Big East can be taken lightly. But losses to those two teams wouldn't cost a No. 1 seed, only a stronger No. 1 since all three are competing for the same value.
In some cases, things are academic because certain 1-2 games would occur in regional finals if all plays out so it wouldn't make major differences if some changed occurred. A year ago we looked ahead and said who could dislodge the existing frontrunners in the weekly polls, which Connecticut and Rutgers did on the court.
The best threats from projected two-seeds are LSU by beating Tennessee and Connecticut and having a hot finish, and North Carolina by doing likewise, but against Maryland and Connecticut. Stanford, despite the win over Rutgers, would need to beat Tennessee to get involved at the top because the Pac-10 will not offer much, if any, in the way of quality opportunities.
Oklahoma already has losses to Maryland and Tennessee and can't compare statistically right now to Rutgers or Connecticut. But winning the Big 12 will keep the discussion alive.
Incidentally, a bunch of we media folks have been invited in early February to NCAA headquarters to go through a mock bracket exercise as the tournament committee will ultimately do -- the men did it last year -- and we will be working with the live data at that point of the season. Enough will be written off of what we produce, I think.
Georgia could be in play for a No. 2, but might go higher with a strong SEC run that would include potential wins over LSU and Tennessee.
After that, things are very wide open. There are some very good won-loss records, but many of those owners of such have yet to be really tested, though certainly the Big East, Big 12, SEC, and ACC will offer opportunities.
Like last year, several mid-major teams could get at-large bids, but not necessarily the same ones from the CAA this time around. Hartford looks like a good candidate if the Hawks don't win the America East.
Maybe Liberty out of the Big South could be another, although we can't see them not winning the conference.
Looking conference-by-conference, in the ACC, Duke has the chance to restore its luster, while Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State will get their chances in conference play. Virginia has good RPI numbers but needs to strongly contend for the upper portion of the ACC.
The Atlantic Ten is a mystery. George Washington got nicked but another strong conference run could offer a safety-valve at-large bid. Temple played strong outside competition, but didn't win, although Rutgers is still left. However, a strong conference run will improve the RPI. St. Joseph's has yet to get fully healthy, but if the Hawks do, they could cause trouble as they did in the tournament. Is Dayton for real? and Xavier needs to shore itself up.
The Big 12 will produce Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas A&M, minimally, and then it will be up to several others to out-duel each other.
The Big East could send a mob but the first half of the conference race will help clarify things and maybe not. Villanova, after a worst-ever 8-21, has been shooting threes like baseball players hit homers -- but without the steroids.
The Big Ten, again, does not seem likely to be in position to send many but it will be fascinating to watch the wars to see who wants to make an impression. Penn State certainly is a team to be examined among several others.
James Madison and Old Dominion are the best of the CAA threats, although the next time ODU doesn't get an automatic will be conference history.
SMU and Tulane have the best outside numbers in Conference USA, but the at-large spot may go to an alum over in the Big East.
Marist is another potential at-large candidate depending on its run in the Metro Atlantic.
Bowling Green has a great RPI now, but how much will the Mid-American competition weaken the schedule rating.
Wyoming is the best bet for at-large status out of the Mountain West, short of a conference title,although Urah seems to be in play.
Stanford, California, and Arizona State seem the most NCAA-worthy now unless they get challenged by the other PAC-10 schools. We know Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, and Vanderbilt, along with a revitalized Auburn project out of the SEC, but Arkansas looks interesting on record at the moment.
As for everyone else, if you haven't been mentioned, you better win your conference.
Since it is a quiet week, we'll hold off on other topics until 24 hours from now.
-- Mel
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