(Revised for any of you non first-time readers with insomonia who saw this earlier, as well as you new arrivals, before and after the Guru needed to make corrections when looking at the actual ballot instructions that had a few purposefully intended curve balls.
By Mel Greenberg
And so a wild ride simulating the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Committee's assembling the 64-team bracket is about to begin for the 16 of us on the panel at the organization's headquarters in Indianapolis.
In our simulated world, the regular season ended Wednesday night, not a month from now. Make-believe conference tournaments leading to 31 automatic bids have already been decided in simulation in some instances and some purposefully with "wrong winners" -- (teams we would not have necessarily considered otherwise). All real data existing as of Wednesday night will be available to us when we arrive Thursday afternoon.
Thus, the Rutgers win over Connecticut Tuesday night is part of our mathematics. But Monday's forthcoming game featuring the Scarlet Knights against Tennessee is not. However, in simulation, Connecticut has already won the Big East tournament for the purpose of the exercise.
The first order of business, as to what each member of the real committee would do, is to produce a list of 64 teams to submit to the NCAA staff on Thursday. The NCAA's simulated conference qualifiers are to be considered part of the list. Otherwise, if not yet designated as having produced representatives, entire leagues can be left out. There are eight of those on the Guru's non-list but their winners will ultimately gain tournament access as automastic qualifiers, thus forcing the Guru and others to bump eight teams from each of their ballots.
In correcting the pre-determined eight simulated winners through upsets or otherwise, the Guru had to alter some of his original choices.
It is at this point that the Guru must briefly pause before taking you all on a personal tour of his mind as he deliberates his ballot.
In projecting the 33 at-large teams in recent years, the Guru has always skipped to the real chase several steps ahead of the committee's actions, although this has ultmately resulted in some surprises once the bracket has been produced.
In our little media world, we usually begin to get to a discussion of "locks," which are teams that are absolutely in the field, and "bubbles," teams that don't have as great criteria, but are needed to get to the field. Some years, the bubble list is large enough that getting rid of teams has been emphasized over finding teams.
Usually, scary as it may seem, using our own data and the thinking of individual committee members over the years, we could foresee a situation where maybe only six spots had to be filled and there were only 12 teams with good enough critieria for consideration.
But in other times, we could foresee a bunch of slots available and a ton of contenders with the same data. How to separate to get the very best of the mob becomes problematic.
Most of that dynamic, however, has to be put aside in performing the mock exercise with the simulated committee. Incidentally, the visit will include the Guru getting his problematic laptop checked out by an NCAA techie. You get your perks where you can.
However, the Guru does not wish to totally abandon his focus on who might ultimately become the 33 at-large teams. So while 64 is the starting element, 33 will be in our subset.
Atlhough at some point conference affilation will become mixed, it's important now from an organizational standpoint to put the names on a piece of paper.
The Guru used the Real-Time RPI website as a guide because (a.) sunrise will be too late to wait for data at another site, as will next week from yet another. Once in Indy, we'll be working with NCAA numbers. But all these RPIs are in the same ballpark.
Mathematically, the Guru worked it this way as he looked at each conference, and you'll be treated shortly to that adventure. "Definitely," went into the first column on the Guru's worksheet, which also included the NCAA simulated declared qualifier. That total came very near the magic 33 at 30, plus the 17 predetermined auto qualifiers for a total of 47 on the prime list. In that elite group, without regard to wrong upsets, eight of the Guru's orginal teams became conference winners with automatic bids. That means more must be found from "the next" group and once the ignored conferences come into play, it means the Guru will be trying to name three of 16 choices to complete the at-large slots.
Some kind of bubble fun, eh?
As the Guru looked at each conference, after submitting the absolutes, he tossed other teams into the deliberation pile, knowing he had to grow a list to 64.
There were also 11 conferences that did not merit consideration of their members in comparison, orginally, on the Guru's ballot until he noticed the NCAA had already predetermined five of champions from that group, which had to be inserted into the elite "in the tournament" field. That knocked some of the original "second" group off the list.
However, since the Guru struggled to get to 64, there were not many tears shed in thinking who might be gone in a matter of hours.
However, Temple and/or Xavier becomes at-risk from the Guru's list because Charlotte had been made a wrong winner frrom the Atlantic Ten.
When it comes actually determining at-large teams in commitee talk, the Guru will be very attentive to someone making a "basketball visual argument" like, for example, in talking up UCLA. But in terms of pure data on the Bruins from the Guru's perspective, an 11-11 record overall, along with an RPI of 101 on a schedule strength of 66 just doesn't cut it.
And speaking of numbers, there used to be a belief, although it was more myth, that 20 wins was a magic total to get in the field. The Guru did not look at total wins from any teams, especially since a recent increase of two games on schedules make 20 wins a common achievement.
So with all that said, click the link to the jump page and join a step-by-step tour of the Guru's considerations.
Assembling The 64 Team Ballot
We're going to do this conference by conference for the sake of organization, with commentary where necessary. Also, we put anyone we had at the very least a positive vibe about in the second field to see where we would ultimately end up attempting to get to 64. Any curve balls already determined by our NCAA staff masters will be noted.
First, to get it right out, the following leagues, which had no NCAA simulated winners, did not make our cut although their tournament champions will become part of the field: Big West, Big Sky, Ivy League, MEAC, MAC, Northeast, Southland, and SWAC.
Now, as for the leagues that did have members on our list:
Atlantic Coast: The NCAA simulates Maryland as the champion. The Guru adds to the elite group North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech, which has not lost to any teams below the ACC powerful three. Virginia has performed well and improved. The Guru nominates Boston College and Florida State to the second group. .
America East: The Guru nominates Hartford. The Hawks are a good team and merit consideration for at-large if upset in the conference playoffs. Is the conference a so-called one-team operation? Probably yes. But if we have to discuss a list of 64, Hartford belongs on the list.
Atlantic Sun: The NCAA made East Tennessee the simulated winner, meaning the Guru has to put the team on his list in the elite column since they are in the field, which has the same value as teams that "must" be in the field according to the Guru's deliberations. We would not have considered ETSU otherwise in advance.
Atlantic Ten: The NCAA has thrown a curve making Charlotte the simulated champion. The Guru nominates George Washington to the elite column and also sends Temple and Xavier to the next group. The Owls have played a killer schedule, responsible for several losses, and the Musketeers are a fine team, although either may have trouble making it all the way to the draw. The next few weeks will bring some clarity.
Big Ten: Where have you gone Mrs. -- oh, never mind: The NCAA, perhaps looking at Ohio State's history of conference tournament stumbles (inside Philly joke), has simulated Minnesota as a "wrong winner" champion. Ohio State is nominated for the prime list, while the "others" get Iowa.
Big 12: What will probably happen as we deliberate is the NCAA will announce a simulated Big 12 winner as well as others that occur during the second wave of conference tournaments when the commitee is actually at work. But for now, nominated for the elite group: Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Texas.
Big East With potentially two No. 1 seeds, the Big East, as well as the Atlantic Coast ought to go into a special draw of their own, with Tennessee also in the mix. Nominated for elite status in another mob scene: The NCAA has simulated Connecticut as the conference tournament winner. The Guru adds to his elite first column on the ballot: Rutgers, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Notre Dame, and Syracuse with Louisville and DePaul sent to the "next" list.
Big South: All's right here. The Guru has Liberty on his list and the NCAA made the perennial conference power the simulated automatic qualifier.
Colonial Athletic (CAA): As noted with Liberty, the same condition applies here with Old Dominion as the NCAA simulated winner and already on the list in advance.
The Guru sends Virginia Commonwealth and James Madison to the next group for at-large consideration.
Conference USA: Another NCAA simulation curve with UAB named the "wrong winner" champion. Texas El-Paso now goes to the "next" group out of the conference along with SMU.
Horizon League: Wisconsin-Green Bay nominated with our fingers crossed they win conference tournament to keep it a one-team representative operation.
Ivy League: Under the Guru's second look, we like Cornell but have no room for at-large consideration on our list. Cornell can get to the field with an Ivy title.
Metro-Atlantic: Marist was on our list and the NCAA made last year's Cinderellas a simulated winner in the MAAC, whose commissioner Richard Ensor is on the real committee.
Missouri Valley: Illinois State. Norminated for elite in a field of 64, but, again, projected to be an automatic qualifier. Creighton goes to the second list.
Mountain West: Utah and Wyoming nominated to prime group, and sending TCU to next group for comparison.
Ohio Valley -- Eastern Illinois is another NCAA simulated winner. The conference had no reps under the Guru's original consideration.
Pacific-Ten: Stanford, one of the Guru's, has been made an NCAA simulated champion. The Guru adds California, and Arizona State to the prime group. Southern California gets sent to the next list.
Patriot League - Maggie Dixon would be proud. Army, which we liked anyway but were afraid to make a projected team, makes the list as an NCAA simulated winner.
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky, which had been in our elite group, has been made another NCAA simulated winner. Middle Tennessee is retained on the elite list. Remember, the Guru is looking at teams, not conferences.
Southeastern: A bit of a curve here. LSU was on our prime list, but the Tigers were made the NCAA simulated winner over Tennessee, which could affect how top seeding gets deliberated by the mock committee. The other elite list SECs of the Guru are Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia (shudder), and Auburn, while Florida (to see how the Gators measure) go to the second column.
Southern: Chattanooga,which had been another Guru field-of-64 original choice, has been made an NCAA simulated winner.
Summitt (Not Pat) -- Oakland as been made an NCAA simulated winner. The conference was previously omitted for the Guru's original considerations.
Western Athletic: Fresno State is considered in the elite group, but with hopes that it gets the automatic qualifier.
West Coast: One more curve ball. The NCAA made Santa Clara the automatic and simulated champion. The Guru had liked Gonzaga after seeing the Zags here against St. Joseph's. They''ll be moved to the second list going in, but their ultimate bracket entry survival may be tentative in this exercise.
A Tight Squeeze
You can count to make sure his math is right when the Guru is airborne in a few hours, but the belief is that he reached a perfect fit with 16 from the "others" list except eight of his total will be bumped by automatic winners of conferences he did not give consideration to. And that last cut was a little tough.
As mentioned, the NCAA has already simulated some wrong winners the way that happens in real life with tournament upsets. That means we already had to slice some of our originals as we might have mentioned.
Guru's Final Ballot for NCAA Submission.
So here we go for better readibility with our list of 64.
In terms of focus, we will list our locks along with the NCAA mock prre-established winners in the upper group and see how many survivors emerge from there when the exercise is over Friday. Then we'll list our remaining nominations that got us to 64. And, then again, the ignored leagues, who will have at least one team. any way, despite the Guru's intended omission..
Of course, a month from now, unless the Guru's thought processes get entirely scrambled by the NCAA mock exercise, this will be done more the Guru's way, using any acquired knowledge from the two-day trip to Indianapolis.
There is no meaning to the ranking order, other than the first 48 are the first 48, overall, followed by the next 16, etc.
First 48 (no ranking significance)
*Maryland
North Carolina
Duke
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Hartford
*East Tennessee State
*Charlotte
George Washington
*Minnesota
Ohio State
Baylor
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Texas A&M
Texas
*Connecticut
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Notre Dame
Syracuse
*Liberty
*Old Dominion
*UAB
Wis.Green Bay
*Marist
Illinois State
Utah
Wyoming
*Eastern Illinois
*Stanford
California
Arizona State
*Army
*Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
*LSU
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Auburn
*Chattanooga
*Oakland
*Santa Clara
Fresno St.
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Next 16 to enter in discussion:
Florida State
Boston College
Temple
Xavier
Iowa
DePaul
Louisville
Va Commonwealth
James Madison
UTEP
SMU
TCU
Creighton
Southern Cal
Florida
Gonzaga
Total == 64
Automatic confs with no reps = 8
Big West
Big Sky
Ivy
MEAC
MAC
NEC
Southland
SWAC
Once the conference winners come into play on the Guru's list, eight teams will have to be sacrificed, but that's a discussion for the next post.
Oh, yes, in case we don't speak for a while, although I'll try to file Thursday night:
The Guru's Four No. 1 seeds in order of importantance, with the simulated upsets accounted for: Tennessee, Connecticut, Rutgers, Maryland, North Carolina, with North Carolina hanging just on the outside going in.
Had not Maryland been named a simulated ACC champion, we would have had the Terrapins flipped with the Tar Heels based on real world results to date.
-- Mel
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