(Guru's Note: Having just discovered the Guru's original ballot prior to arrival in Indy, we feel good enough to do a little boasting. A sidebar to this is in the post above showing how the Guru fared.
There will also be a locally-targeted mock story that simulates the local ncaa story for Philly as if the mock committee's work had been real.)
By Mel Greenberg
Having had a "subcommittee" session in the hotel sports bar Thursday night, aka. The Champions Subcommittee, to get a jump start on Friday, the 16-member mock committee group returned to NCAA headquarters to finish the seeding and bracketing, as time allowed.
Incidentally, several mock committee members, especially TV types, fell in love with some of the software and ratings terminology as we went through the process.
"Toggle," "Tiling," and especially, "Nitty Gritty," were phrases that might come up during braodcast games the next several days from Debbiie Antonelli, Theresa Grentz (who now broadcasts Big Ten action,) Carolyn Peck, and Beth Mowins.
The Nitty Gritty, besides being a '60s song by Shirley Ellis, is also the readout of component numbers that help create the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).
Several questions were answered from the NCAA staff as we went through team and seed selection: The format that determines which referees will work the tournament was explained as was the nominating process that results in individuals getting named to the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Committee.
Mechelle Voepel will probably have more detail on these subjects in her report at ESPN.com.
Speaking of ESPN, there is a chance if another mock session is held next year, the sports network that covers the tournament might bring TV cameras in to film the work of the group.
It was noted in a previous blog that conference quotas are never addressed in deliberations. The other "never" is whatever happen last year or previous in past has no relation to the current deliberations.
It was clarified that we can report on the deliberations as they occurred but the specifics of the data in conference reports and regional rankings profiles were restricted for several reasons.
It was a little interesting in that real committee Jane Meyer of Iowa and Heather Gores of Gonzaga sat and listened to our deliberations, which included focused discussions on both of their teams.
The 33 at-large teams that were on the board when we frinished Thursday's work remained as such, although challenges were made by a late arrival due to a TV broadcast assignment on the listing of Iowa and Temple.
Those two were then revisited along with several other teams -- some just in and some just out.
Each of us were then assigned to drill down on a particular team from the data and offer five good reasons the team should be included and five more why the team should not.
Voepel and the Guru were partnered on Florida, which was one of the top also rans.
In discussing Temple's qualities, the Guru's name, by virtual local coverage, was invoked by other panel members.
The Owls situation enabled an NCAA official to point out in evaluating schedules, rememver some teams are "locked" into certain games, such as The Big Five, which in other years have offered higher opposition values, but not as much recently.
CSTV's Greg Amsinger noted how in producing the 33 at-large we had not really talked about specific RPI numbers, as such. The Guru noted that in researching 2007 men's mock meeting coverage, that group, too, discovered that the specific RPI number of teams were not discussed.
That's because RPIs are the results of a lot of organized information and we spent more time on the components.
So, what's most important in terms of splitting hairs to find teams? Strength of schedule?
The answer is there is no one specific and members of the committee will use different emphasis to vote for teams. Thus, a team's inclusion comes from the consensus nomination, even though that consensus is reached through different emphasis from each member.
To speed the simulation along, all the automatic qualifiers were pre-determined for the purpose of the exercise and entered into the tournament.
That said, here's who made the field of 64, with a few Guru notations.: To keep a running count, teams listed that are sent to at-large candidates due to wrong winners, and teams that come off at-large pile due to automatic qualifiers will be listed in parentheseis.Also, to keep a total, every time am automatic qualifier frrom a low conference is inserted, that will also cause a running count to see how the Guru's original ballot was impacted.
Click the link here to go to the "jump" page to keep reading.
31 Automatic qualifiers (generated by NCAA staff for simulation).
For the purposes of the Guru's sidebar, a running total was kept on how the automatic qualifiers impacted the Guru's original ballot.
America East: Vermont -- (1) "Wrong winner" sent Hartford for consideration from at-large nominees.
Atlantic 10: Charlotte - (2) "Wrong winner" sent George Washington into at-large nominees.
Atlantic Coast: Maryland - (1) Removed from at-large nominees.
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State - (1) Strike from Gurul's initial ballot of 64.
Big 12: Baylor -- (2) Removed from at-large nominees.
Big East: Connecticut -- (3) Removed from at-large nominees.
Big Sky: Montana - (2) Strike second from Guru initial ballot of 64.
Big South: Liberty -- (4) Projected, but removed from Guru's 64.
Big Ten: Minnesota -- (4) strike from at-large nominees (Guru's "second" tier:)
Colonial: Old Dominion -- (4) Projected but removed from Guru's 64
Conference USA: UAB -- (3) Wrong winner sent UTEP to at-large nominees.
Horizon: Cleveland State - (4) Wrong winner sent Green Bay to at-large nominees.
Ivy: Yale - (5) Removed from Guru's 64 -- We liked Cornell, but had called Ivies a one-team slot.
MAAC: Marist -- (5) Projected but removed from Guru's ballot.
Mid-American: Ohio - (4) Strike one from Guru's initial ballot of 64.
Mid-Eastern Athletic: North Carolina A&T - (5) Strike from Guru's ballot.
Missouri Valley Conf: Drake - (5) Wrong winner sent Illinois State to at-large nominees.
Mountain West: Utah - (5) Projected but removed from Guru's ballot.
Northeast: Quinnipiac - (6) Strike from Guru's ballot.
Ohio Valley: Eastern Ill. - (7) Strike from Guru's ballot.
Pacific Ten: Stanford. - (4) Removed from at-large nominees.
Patriot: Army - (6) Projected but removed from Guru's list of nominees.
Southeastern: LSU - (5) Removed from Guru's at-large nominees.
Southern: Chattanooga: (7) Projected but removed from Guru's list of nominees.
Southland: Texas-Arlington:-- (8) Strike from Guru's ballot.
SWAC: Prairie View A&M: -- (9) Strike from Guru's ballot.
Summit: Oakland - (10) Strike from Guru's ballot.
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky - (6) Strike from at-large nominees.
West Coast: Santa Clara - (6) Wrong winner sent Gonzaga to at-large nominees.
The 33 At-Large Teams
Arizona State
California
DePaul
George Washington
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Hartford
Iowa
Kansas State
Kentucky
Louisville
Nebraska
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh
Purdue -- (Last- in)
Rutgers
Southern California
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas-El Paso
Vanderbilt
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
Teams close on board at sign-off
Boston College
Florida
Florida State
Illinois State
Xavier
Notes on the at-large group that made it
Charlotte's simulated A-10 championship put Geo. Wash. in at-large group, impacted Xavier's near miss.
Vermont's simulation in America East put Hartford here and cost someone else a slot.Everyone was strong about Hartford.
UAB's simulation in Conference USA put UTEP here and cost someone else a slot.
Cleveland's simulation in Horizon hurt Wis.-Green Bay, which was not rescued.
Drake's simulation in Missouri Valley bumped Illinois State, which just missed.
Santa Clara's simulation in West Coast hurt Gonzaga, which was not rescued.
Some things that worked for Temple, other than the coach's ability to know the location of good steakhouses for interviews from national women's writers who get selected for Mock NCAA committees: The out-of-conference schedule was super strong and the Owls were in many games with those teams.
Total Conference Multiple Representatives:
ACC (5): Maryland, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia
Big East (8): Conn., DePaul, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, West Va., Rutgers
Atlantic Ten (3): Charlotte, Temple, George Washington
Big Twelve (7) Baylor,Kansas St., Nebraska, Okla., Okla St., Texas, Texas A&M.
Big Ten (4) Minnesota, Ohio St., Iowa, Purdue
Pac-10 (4) Stanford, California, Arizona St., Southern Cal
Southeastern (6) LSU, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Amer. East (2) Hartford, Vermont
C-USA (2) UAB, Utep
Mountain West (2) Utah, Wyoming
Total multiples 43
Remaining conferences, one team each: 21
Seeding The "S" Curve.
We only went a portion of the way through this because of time constraints, but the process involved looking at the 64-team field, voting for eight teams in no particular order to establish the candidates for the first two seed rows.
We then took the eight that emerged and ranked them 1-8 on a vote that established
the four No. 1s. Then we repeated the procedures, voting eight more, ranking them with the four that did not get named No.1 seeds, to establish seed line 4-8. We did that through six rows and 24 seed positions.
Off the ballots (and remember the mythical season ended, Wednesday night), here's what we got:
1. Tennessee (overall No.1), 2. Connecticut. 3.Rutgers, 4.Maryland
8. Baylor 7, Stanford 6. LSU 5. North Carolina
9. California 10 Oklahoma 11. Duke 12 West Virginia
16. Oklahoma St., 15. Virginia, 14. Kansas St., 13. Pittsburgh
17. Geo. Wash., 18. Old Dominion. 19. Texas 20. Vanderbilt
24. Ariz. St. 23 Georgia 22 Ohio State 21 Texas A&M
Bracket of First Six Rows
As some of this was discussed a year ago after a women's media/NCAA gathering here, the RPIs., etc., help establish the seed order.
But when it comes down to placing seeds in bracket, georgraphy takes place over seed designation, per the coaches' request at last summer's committee meetings. Teams that host, must also be in their own geographical areas.The brackets must balance, but not necessarily be totally equal.
As each team came up for placement, a mileage counter appeared under the names of the four regional final sites: Greensboro (N.C)., New Orleans, Oklahoma City (Okla.), Spokane (Wash). A number also appeared at the bottom of each column of the region and the closer the numbers occurred, the closer we were to a perfect balance.
We also had to move some teams around, up one row down one row or across regions left to right and vice versa, which were allowed to do.
When completed, here's what we got as far as we went _ time did not permit us to go deeper or place teams at first and second-round sites.
at Greensboro, N.C. at New Orleans at Oklahoma City: at Spokane
1, Tennessee Connecticut Rutgers North Carolina
2. Baylor LSU Maryland Stanford
3. Duke West Va. Oklahoma Pittsburgh
4. Virginia Kansas St. Oklahoma St. California
5. Geo. Wash Old Dominion Texas Vanderbilt
6. Arizona St. Georgia Ohio St. Texas A&M
Several real committee members, including LSU's Judy Southard, the chair, congratulated us on producing a balanced an exciting bracket at the top, as far as we were able to go.
And with that, we were happy to conclude and return to the full season, where lots of great clashes remain before the real madness begins.
-- Mel
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