« Clockgate II -- How the Other Gender Handles It | Main | Rutgers' Stringer Arrives at the Door to Career No. 800 »

Race for No. 1 Seeds Almost Over Unless Upsets Occur

By Mel Greenberg

Connecticut took care of its business Monday night with a win at LSU and by doing so virtually assured itself a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament field. Maya Moore, by her performance, perhaps put away all the national freshman of the year honors, also.

If the outcome had gone the other way, a lot of "ifs," would have entered into play and LSU would have taken another step into the mix.

But with just one or maybe two games against Rutgers left, as long as the Huskies do what's expected -- losses to Rutgers wouldn't be fatal -- UConn appears to be in a "lock" state along with Tennessee.

What losses to Rutgers would do, is cause discussion on which team would be the higher No. 1 seed. The Huskies helped the Scarlet Knights' bid for a No. 1 also.

With a head-to-head win over LSU and the Tigers' loss to UConn, Rutgers wins that discussion.

In looking at Rutgers' case, coach C. Vivian Stringer's team compares favorably against Maryland and North Carolina, who will fight it out in the Atlantic Coast Conference for the remaining No. 1 slot.

The Scarlet Knights compare favorably at the moment against either team based on the data in the Nitty Gritty component simulations.

Atlhough Maryland currently has an RPI ranking one notch higher, the reason is the Terrapins played more games courtesy of the preseason NIT that gave the Terrapins extra wins. Rutgers still has a stronger strength of schedule.

That opponents will get even more stronger with games against DePaul, Syracuse, and Connecticut just ahead. There's also the head-to-head win against Maryland.

Now with that said, Rutgers still needs to win the games not involving the Huskies or otherwise the injury situation will become more dominant in committee deliberations.

Now with that said, here's another update on how the bubble list is shaping up. Even though some teams in the "discussion," column we would take quickly, we know that's where they will land. Fortunately for most of them, our count shows that not many would have to be eliminated to make the field. Some teams could still find their way on and out of the list as we go through the next several weeks.

Incidentally, in a note of trivia, Ohio State's loss to Indiana assures that the regular season Big Ten champion will have the most losses ever in the history of the conference at five.

Here's the lock and discussion list. In some games we're projecting names of conference winners in what will be one-bid situations. If some get upset, they will certainly enter the discussion group, such as Marist, which earned its first ever AP ranking on Monday. In a few situations, a conference race is so murky, we're unable to project a winner and will just name the slot.

The Locks

Total -- 50

North Carolina
Maryland
Duke
Virginia
America East winner -- Hartford
George Washington
Atlantic Sun winner -- ETSU
Baylor
Oklahoma
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
Texas A&M
Connecticut
Rutgers
West Virginia
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Big Sky winner -- Montana
Big South winner -- Liberty
Ohio State
Big West winner -- UCSB
Old Dominion
C-USA winner -- UTEP
Horizon winner -- Wis.-Green Bay
Ivy winner -- Cornell
MAAC winner -- Marist
Mid-American winner
MEAC winner -- N. Car. A&T
Missouri Valley winner -- Illinois St.
Utah
Wyoming
Northeast winner
Ohio Valley winner -- SE Missouri
Stanford
California
Arizona St.
Patriot winner
LSU
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Southern winner -- Chattanooga
Southland winner
Summit winner
Sun Belt winner -- Western Kentucky
SWAC winner
Western Athletic winner -- Fresno or Boise St.
West Coast winner -- Gonzaga

"Discussion" group -- 16 for 14 vacancies

Georgia Tech
Florida St.
Boston College
Xavier
Temple
Nebraska
Iowa State
Texas
DePaul
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan
SMU
TCU
Southern Cal
Auburn

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Philly.com discussions are intended to be civil, friendly conversations. Please treat other participants with respect and in a way that you would want to be treated. You are responsible for what you say. And please, stay on topic.

These boards are monitored by Philly.com staff. We reserve the right at all times to remove any information or materials that are unlawful, threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, obscene, vulgar, pornographic, profane, indecent or otherwise objectionable to us in our sole discretion and to disclose any information necessary to satisfy the law, regulation, or government request. Personal attacks, especially on other board participants, are not permitted. We reserve the right to permanently block any user who violates these terms and conditions.

Copyright © 2006-2008 Philadelphia Newspapers L.L.C. All Rights Reserved.

Authors

mel_headshot_2.jpg

Mel Greenberg covers college and professional women’s basketball for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he has worked for 38 years. Greenberg pioneered national coverage of the game, including the original Top 25 women's college poll. His knowledge has earned him nicknames such as "The Guru" and "The Godfather," as well as induction into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame in 2007.

womhoops_headshot.JPG

Jonathan Tannenwald is a producer with Philly.com. In addition to covering the local college scene, he spent two years as the Washington Mystics beat writer for Women's Hoops Guru. He also writes his own blog, Soft Pretzel Logic, which covers men's college basketball, football, and a variety of other sports.

Other contributors

-- Erin Semagin Damio covers the University of Connecticut and the WNBA's Connecticut Sun for the blog, and contributes other features. The Storrs, Conn., native also attends Northeastern University, where she is a coxswain on the varsity crew team.

-- Acacia O'Connor is in her senior year at Vassar College, where she played on the school's varsity team before going abroad to Bologna, Italy, last spring. From Bologna, she wrote regular dispatches on basketball and culture.

To read the old version of Women's Hoops Guru, click here.

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 26, 2008 4:59 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Clockgate II -- How the Other Gender Handles It.

The next post in this blog is Rutgers' Stringer Arrives at the Door to Career No. 800.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

Powered by
Movable Type 3.35