Women's Hoops Guru

By Mel Greenberg

So go ahead and say it:

Guru, given your analysis and expectations going into Sunday night's vote, you must have been a little surprised that Rutgers landed where it did in Monday's Associated Press women's poll from a nationwide media panel?

The answer is in the affirmative but now the Guru knows the reason the Scarlet Knights stayed in fifth place and it's a harsh truth: Simply, the knowledge base across the 50-member panel is not as deep as one would like.

Let's pause a moment, though, to go through some parameters.

When the voting panel is assembled in the early fall, the attempt is made to get the best people. But in trying to fulfill a number, the slots are usually greater than the available candidates to meet requirements.

Then comes the next step. Find candidates who are at least on top of their "local" game and as the season moves along, it's hoped that they'll figure out how to get more into the local/national mix.

Some people on the voting board have been around for quite a while, but others are still sort of finding their way. And in a season, such as this one, it becomes a bit challenging as to where the levels of acceptance for rankings truly exist.

Voting the top 10, itself, was an adventure Sunday because to drop Baylor a few slots for losing to Texas or drop Oklahoma for losing to Baylor, one had to find replacements. But except for Old Dominion, which has less challenging competition in the Colonial Athletic Association, most of the next-in-line contenders all took hits.

Meanwhile, some voters only get to see certain Top 10 teams from outside their area once or twice during the season.

Some have wondered why the Scarlet Knights didn't fare as well among Southern voters.

One reason is the only "live" impression some have was the loss at Duke. That was a game that in one stretch the Scarlet Knights took so long to score between field goals that when the previous shot was made, a baby girl was born somewhere in America. By the time Rutgers scored their next field goal, coach C. Vivian Stringer was said to be arranging a home visit to her for recruiting purposes.

Some people were focused more Rutgers' losses, forgetting that a loss to a lesser ranked team in the Big East conference is allowed to happen at least once. Writers who cover the Big East seemed to understand that.

In turn, we, here in the East would like to see California a little more, when possible, so the Bears don't feel like an oddity with their top 10 ranking, which is new for them. Of course, it's a given that we know their coach Joanne Boyle comes from good stock in having built the program so quickly.

The Guru was forecasting a top three ranking for Rutgers while mentioning the potential for a No. 1 because of the discussion among a bunch of the voting veterans in phone calls last week after the Scarlet Knights were victimized in the "frozen" clock debacle at Tennessee.

The disparity in knowledge is a reason that Rutgers, as a No. 5 team became the first to get so many first-place votes (eight) at that ranking level.

And as it is, if one looks at the total points, Rutgers is in a virtual third-place tie, trailing No. 4 Maryland by 18 points, and No. 3 Tennessee by 35 points. Several shifts of sixth and seventh-place ballots to fourth and fifth place votes could mean an improved ranking of one or two slots.

Having seen the vote initially analyzed on the Rutgers message board during the day, your Guru went in a different direction Monday night after his desk duties in sports.

Having spoke of the "knowledge base," the Guru went to the AP voting site and randomly grabbed names of media whose awareness of the scene and rhythm of the season might be more extensive than others. Some exceptions were made to get "beat" writers of local teams in the mix, while not every name was taken from those considered to be a bit more aware, nationally.

Ballots were not looked at until the printouts were made of a group of 17 voters, including the Guru's own ballot. (That's because you all think the guru is is knowedgeable.).

Geographically, five ballots were from the East, five from the South, five from the Midwest, and two from the West. -- they're a little younger out there.

Using that subset, the result was quite revealing in that Rutgers landed third and was very close to second.

The first seven teams in the real poll were used for ranking purposes and totals were the same applied in the regular formula for a full poll. All seven took seven spots in each of the 17 ballot, with the exception of one in which Baylor got a fifth-place vote, pushing LSU to eighth.

Here's how the teams ranked when the counting was done.

!. Connecticut (10 first-place votes), 413 points.
2. North Carolina (1), 395 points.
3. Rutgers (6), 386.
4. Maryland, 367.
5. Tennessee, 366
6. LSU, 351
7. Stanford, 339
8. Baylor, 21.

Breaking down the ballots:

Connecticut 10-first, 6-second, 1-seventh.
UNC 1-first, 6-second, 7-third, 2-fourth, 1-fifth.
Rutgers 6-first, 2-second, 1-third, 2-fourth, 3-fifth, 1-sixth, 2-seventh
Maryland 2-second, 3-third, 4-fourth, 3-fifth, 4-sixth, 1-seventh.
Tennessee 1-second, 4-third, 4-fourth, 3-fifth, 4-sixth, 1-seventh.
LSU 1-third, 4-fourth, 4-fifth, 5-sixth, 2-seventh, 1-eighth.
Stanford 1-third, 1-fourth, 2-fifth, 3-sixth, 10-seventh
Baylor 1-fifth.

Meanwhile, if these were the only votes on the board, Virginia, which is vastly underrated, would be ranked. The Cavaliers, who have only lost to Maryland, North Carolina, and Duke in the ACC, were on most of the ballots,including the Guru's,

Notes of Irony

Notre Dame will visit Rutgers Tuesday night in a key Big East game. The matchup comes one day after the Irish's coach Muffet McGraw tied Stringer's total at Iowa at 22nd for most ranking appearances for a coach at one school with 155 appearances.

Wendy Larry, at 139, needs two more ranking appearances to tie former coach Marianne Stanley's Old Dominion total at 141. Stanley is now an assistant coach at Rutgers.

Ohio State's Jim Foster has tied former Auburn coach Joe Ciampi at 10th place on the all-time list for overall poll appearances at 290, just two behind Virginia's Debbie Ryan.

His Buckeyes' ranking total -- he also had ranked teams at Vanderbilt and St. Joseph's -- is 91, ahead of previous coaches _Tara VanDerveer and Nancy Darsch -- with ranked teams at Ohio State.

Temple's Dawn Staley is about to add one record and lose another. Her next win will give her the all-time total for the Owls at 167, which could come Wednesday night at St. Joseph's. Meanwhile her assist record for Virginia in her glory years in the early 1990s as the Cavaliers' all-American point guard of 729 will soon be surpassed by Sharnee Zoll, who needs 16 to set the new mark.

-- Mel