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Guru's Field on Selection Monday Morning

By Mel Greenberg

Having experienced the mock bracket exercise last month at NCAA headquarters, the Guru took you through, here are estimates of what the field is likely to be.

Remember, the committee members each vote for 64, including the automatic winners and then when a consensus is not reached on teams on the overall ballot, they get tossed back onto the table for discussion, hence the bubbles, although that phrase is not used during the deliberations.

On the lock list, we'll use conference groupings, for the sake of counting,even though conferences themselves are not part of the formal discussions. When we get to the bubbles, then we'll look at them as teams, even though they will be derived as "let's give them another look" out of the conference list. A (W) means an automatic winner.

Here are the locks, which has changed little in numbers the last several days:The total here is 57 meaning 7 at-large berths must come from the bubble group.Team RPI and SOS will also be listed with records. ConferenceRPI is our source.*-Not regular season champion

Atlantic Coast (4) -- North Carolina (W)-(29-2 R-3, SOS-6), Maryland (30-3, R-5, SOS-9), Duke (22-9, R-9, SOS-4), and Virginia (23-9, R-15, SOS-11).

America East (1) - Hartford (W)-(27-5, R-53, SOS-179).

Atlantic Ten (3) - *-Xavier (W)-(24-8, R-41, SOS-78), Geo. Wash. (25-6, R-23, SOS-66), Temple (21-12, R-50, SOS-46)

Atlantic Sun (1) - East Tenn. St. (W)-(R-113, SOS-183)

Big 12 (7) - *-Texas A&M (W)-(26-7, R-7, SOS-7), Kansas St. (21-9, R-22, SOS-21), Baylor (24-6, R-10, SOS-13), Oklahoma St. (25-7, R-20,SOS-36), Oklahoma (21-8, R-13, SOS-8), Iowa St. (20-12, R-32, SOS-22), Texas (21-12, R-24, SOS-15).

Big East (7) - Connecticut (W)-(32-1, R-2, SOS-3), Rutgers (24-6, R-4, SOS-2), Louisville (24-9, R-12, SOS-5), West Virginia (24-7, R-19, SOS-30), Notre Dame (23-8, R-14, SOS-12), Syracuse (22-8, R-26, SOS-41), Pittsburgh (22-10, R-21, SOS-16)

Big Sky (1) - Montana (W)-(23-6, R-64, SOS-188).

Big South (!) - Liberty (W)-(28-3, R-29, SOS-125)

Big Ten (3) - *-Purdue (W)-(18-14, R-35, SOS-10), Ohio St. (22-8, R-36, SOS-60), Iowa (21-10, R-47, SOS-55)

Big West (!) - UC Santa Barbara (W)-(23-7, R-77, SOS-202)

Colonial (1) - Old Dominion (W)-(29-4, R-11, SOS-29)

C--USA (2) - *-SMU (W)-(24-8, R-46, SOS-95), UTEP (27-3, R-16, SOS-82)

Horizon (!) - *-Cleveland St. (19-13, R-135, SOS-178)

Ivy (1) - Cornell (W)-(19-8, R-155, SOS-315)

MAAC (1) - Marist (W)-(31-2, R-25, SOS-150)

Mid-American (!) - *-Miami-Ohio (W)-(23-10, R-58, SOS-83)

MEAC (1) - *-Coppin St. (W)-(22-11, R-131, SOS-216)

Missouri Valley (!) - Illinois St. (W)-(26-6, R-44, SOS-119)

Mountain West (2) - *-New Mexico (W)-(20-12, R-83, SOS-101),Utah (27-4, R-27, SOS-106)

Northeast (1) - Robert Morris (W)-(23-9, R-97, SOS-223)

Ohio Valley (1) - *-Murray St. (W)-(24-7, R-85, SOS-233)

Pac-10 (3) - Stanford (W)-(30-3, R-6, SOS-26), California (26-6, R-18, SOS-44), Arizona St. (21-10, R-33, SOS-34).

Patriot (1) - *-Bucknell (W)-(16-15, R-181, SOS-197)

Southeastern (4) - *-Tennessee (W)-(30-2, R-1, SOS-1), LSU (27-5, R-8, SOS-19), Vanderbilt (23-8, R-17, SOS-25), Georgia (22-9, R-34, SOS-45).

Southern (1) - Chattanooga (W)-(29-3, R-28, SOS-130).

Southland (1) - *-UT San Antonio (W)-(23-9, R-128, SOS-267).

Summit (1) - *-Oral Roberts (W)-(19-13), R-173, SOS-251)

Sun Belt (1) - Western Kentucky (W)-(26-7, R-30, SOS-75)

SWAC (1) - *-Jackson St. (W)-(18-13, R-205, 304)

WAC (1) - Fresno St. (W)-(22-10, R-90. SOS-170)

West Coast (1) - *-San Diego (W)-(19-12, R-118, SOS-149)


Bubble List and some regular season champs,The total is 20 and 13 have to be cut if the lock list holds. %-Regular season conf. champ.

Georgia Tech - (22-9, R-43, SOS-58)
Boston College - (20-11, R-68, SOS-93)
Florida St. - (18-13, R-59, SOS-37)
Nebraska - (20-11, R-31, SOS-24)
DePaul - (20-11, R-40, SOS-31)
Minnesota - (20-11, R-37, SOS-28)
Michigan St. - (19-13, R-52, SOS-33)
James Madison - (22-9, R-45, SOS-71)
Va.Commonwealth - (25-7, R-48, SOS-112)
Wis.-Green Bay - %-(26-5, R-49, SOS-169)
Bowling Green - %-(25-7, R-63, SOS-175)
North Carolina A&T - %-(25-7, R-88, SOS-264)
Wyoming - (24-6, R-38, SOS-91)
TCU - (21-11, R-56, SOS-62)
SE Missouri - %-(23-8, R-99, SOS-236)
Kentucky - (15-15, R-54, SOS-14)
Auburn - (20-11, R-61, SOS-69)
Florida - (18-13, R-42, SOS-20)
Middle Tennessee - (21-11, R-51, SOS-54)
Gonzaga - %-(24-8, R-39, SOS-76)

Reducing The Bubble (The goal is to cut 13)

For reasons of schedule, subtract the following regular season conference winners:
Wis.-Green Bay
North Carolina A&T
Bowling Green
SE Missouri
Gonzaga

That leaves us with eight to cut
For reasons of schedule and few compelling wins by comparison and some bad losses, cut
James Madison
Va Commonwealth

That leaves us with six to cut
Boston College is sliced on schedule comparison, some bad losses, even though there's a Georgia Tech win in there.

The Guru thinks putting a .500 team sets a bad precedent, so:
Kentucky is sliced.

That leaves us with four to cut
Florida State has some bad losses

That leaves us with three, though the committee may keep Florida State and cut elsewhere.

We like Florida better than Auburn, but think Auburn will make the field and the Gators, not.

That leaves with two.

It's not Middle Tennessee's year.

And the last out is -- TCU, but the committe may take them and cut Michigan State

We'll be back with seed line predictions early in the afternoon.

-- Mel

Posted by Mel Greenberg on March 17, 2008 5:16 AM |

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Authors

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Mel Greenberg covers college and professional women’s basketball for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he has worked for 38 years. Greenberg pioneered national coverage of the game, including the original Top 25 women's college poll. His knowledge has earned him nicknames such as "The Guru" and "The Godfather," as well as induction into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame in 2007.

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Jonathan Tannenwald is a producer with Philly.com. In addition to covering the local college scene, he spent two years as the Washington Mystics beat writer for Women's Hoops Guru. He also writes his own blog, Soft Pretzel Logic, which covers men's college basketball, football, and a variety of other sports.

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Kathleen Radebaugh is a recent graduate of Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia. She was the women's basketball beat writer for the school's newspaper, The Hawk, and became the sports editor her sophomore year. She was also a four-year member of the varsity crew team.

Other contributors

-- Erin Semagin Damio covers the University of Connecticut and the WNBA's Connecticut Sun for the blog, and contributes other features. The Storrs, Conn., native also attends Northeastern University, where she is a coxswain on the varsity crew team.

-- Acacia O'Connor is based in Washington, D.C., where she reports on the Mystics and the college basketball scene in the nation's capital. A graduate of Vassar college, she played on the varsity women's basketball team and was editor of the student newspaper.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 17, 2008 5:16 AM.

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