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NCAA Bubbles and Locks and Tuesday (M11) Preview

By Mel Greenberg

PHILADELPHIA _ First, we'd like to confirm that St.Joseph's men's coach Phil Martelli confirmed to us after the Atlantic Ten women's game on Hawk Hill that Geno Auriemma's son Michael will be joining the team next season, as was noted in the Hartford Courant.

Auriemma, will be busy, otherwise, but maybe not for real long Tuesday night, against Louisville in the title game of the Big East tournament in Hartford.

We're heading up for the coronation, but it shouold be noted that Louisville coach Jeff Walz is as good a candidate as any out there for the WBCA's Maggie Dixon award that goes to the rookie head coach.

In other conference action ahead on Tuesday:

Big 12 First Round: How far has this conference come? Almost as far as the Big East where all four games have meaning in the opening round. Eighth-seeded Iowa State, a bubble team, is seeking some wins to find a way into the NCAA field, while No. 9 Colorado is looking to get back to where the Buffaloes hit their stride in mid-season.
No. 5 Oklahoma, considered an NCAA title threat back in the preseason, is looking to enhance it's seed position by starting out with a win over No. 12 Missouri.
No. 7 Texas is trying to do likewise against No. 12 Texas Tech as Longhorns coach Gail Goestenkors makes her Big 12 tourney debut.

No.6 Nebraska wants to make sure it has some extra wins to insure an NCAA bid as the Cornhuskers open against No. 11 Kansas.

No. 1 Kansas State, No. 4 Texas A&M, No.2 Baylor, and No. 3 Oklahoma State are all trying to squeeze into second or third NCAA seeds. The quartet has byes until Wednesday.

Mountain West: One play-in game, even if it isn't described as such, involves No.8 UNLV and No. 9 Colorado State.


Mid-American: It's the quarterfinals and the biggest game is East No. 1 Bowling Green against East No. 5 Kent State because Bowling Green needs to win this whole thing to get an NCAA berth.

MEAC: Three out-bracket games comprise the first round as No. 10 Bethune-Cookman meets No. 7 South Carolina State; No. 6 Morgan State meets No. 11 Norfolk State; and No.8 Howard meets No.9 Florida A&M.

Summit: Oral Roberts, the fourth seed, meets IUPUI, the third seed for the championship. Top-seeded Oakland will be taken by the WNIT.

Sun Belt: The right two teams advanced to the championship in No. 1 Western Kentucky and No. 3 Middle Tennessee, but Western Kentucky has a better chance of rescue off the bubble list if the Hilltoppers don't win this tournament.

Ok, class, once again let's play the numbers game again in terms of who gets into the NCAA tournament and who is on the fence. Some teams will be moved into locks from the bubble/discussion list, because the Guru believes as such, although the committee may go in a different direction. The bubbles will include wrong loser, for the purpose of counting. The locks wil include conference automatics. A "W" means the automatic qualifier has been secured. At this hour 10 of 16 conference No. 1 seeds have not repeated regular season championships in their tournaments.

The Locks -- 57 slots

America East winner -- Hartford projected.
Atlantic Coast: North Carolina -- W, Maryland, Duke, Virginia
Atlantic Ten: George Washington, Temple, Xavier -- W
Atlantic Sun winner: East Tennessee St. -- W
Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas
Big East: Connecticut, Rutgers, Louisville, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Big Sky winner: Montana projected
Big South winner: Liberty projected
Big Ten: Purdue-W, Iowa, Ohio State
Big West winner: UCSB projected
Colonial winner: Old Dominion projected
Conference-USA: SMU-W, UTEP
Horizon winner: Wis.-Green Bay projected
Ivy winner: playoff survivor among Cornell, Hartford, and Dartmouth. On Friday, Dartmouth and Harvard meet at Columbia, with the winner meeting Cornell, which won the bye, at this same location.
Metro Atlantic winner: Marist-W
Mid-American winner: Bowling Green projected
MEAC winner: North Carolina A&T projected
Missouri Valley winner: Illinois, Drake or Evansville, but only one.
Mountain West: Utah, Wyoming
Northeast winner: Long Island U. or Robert Morris
Ohio Valley winner: Murray St. - W
PAC-10: Stanford-W, California, Arizona State
Patriot winner: Bucknell or Holy Cross
Southeastern: Tennessee-W, LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgia
Southern winner:Chattanooga-W
Southland winner: Texas State???
Summit winner: Oral Roberts or IUPUI
Sun Belt winner: W. Kentucky meets Middle Tennessee
SWAC winner: Somebody
Western Athletic winner: Boise St. or Freshno St. projected
West Coast winner: San Diego - W

Bubbles and (WL) wrong losers worth discussion for comparison
(15 below, 8 must be subtracted)

Georgia Tech
Florida State -- slim
Boston College -- slim
Iowa State
DePaul
Minneosta -- slimmer
Michigan State -- slimmer
Illinois -- for discussion
James Madison
TCU
Kentucky -- 15-15 sets a bad precedent
Auburn
Middle Tennessee
Gonzaga -- WL
Oakland -WL
-- Mel


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Authors

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Mel Greenberg covers college and professional women’s basketball for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he has worked for 38 years. Greenberg pioneered national coverage of the game, including the original Top 25 women's college poll. His knowledge has earned him nicknames such as "The Guru" and "The Godfather," as well as induction into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame in 2007.

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Jonathan Tannenwald is a producer with Philly.com. In addition to covering the local college scene, he spent two years as the Washington Mystics beat writer for Women's Hoops Guru. He also writes his own blog, Soft Pretzel Logic, which covers men's college basketball, football, and a variety of other sports.

Other contributors

-- Erin Semagin Damio covers the University of Connecticut and the WNBA's Connecticut Sun for the blog, and contributes other features. The Storrs, Conn., native also attends Northeastern University, where she is a coxswain on the varsity crew team.

-- Acacia O'Connor is in her senior year at Vassar College, where she played on the school's varsity team before going abroad to Bologna, Italy, last spring. From Bologna, she wrote regular dispatches on basketball and culture.

To read the old version of Women's Hoops Guru, click here.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 11, 2008 5:06 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Atlantic Ten: Temple Seeks To Play Another Day.

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