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Guru's Musings: Rutgers' Margin of Error Reduced

By Mel Greenberg

At mid-afternoon on Saturday Rutgers held a 23-point lead on Tennessee and was dominating into halftime.

If the performance at that moment was a glimpse of the future through the rugged Big East, there was a lot one could legitimately dream in terms of the NCAA committee's deliberations in March.

A No. 2 seed could become a reality, though it would be helpful to be a weak No. 2 to avoid Connecticut in the same region. Even a No. 1 could come into play depending on how the crush shakes out by the time conference play concludes.

After all, a win over Tennessee certainly enhances a profile in any year and helps separate one from others in an upward movement when teams are being slotted.

But a nationwide audience saw the meltdown and now on Tuesday night an upset loss at Syracuse followed to start conference play.

That setback sets the stage for more nightmare thoughts than dreams.

Things won't be as bad as what happened three years ago when normal short-bet Penn State got a first-round site and never made the tournament.

But with more bumps expected the nature of those rough spots will determine much.

The loss to the Orange basically conceded the Big East regular season title to UConn in that the Scarlet Knights needed to be unbeaten when the first of the two matchups between the 1-2 preseason picks occurs early next month.

Now, it would take a perfect run including a sweep of the Huskies to get the top seed in the conference tournament. The problem is more rough sailing before the ship rights itself -- and that should happen eventually, shouldn't it -- could cost a Big East bye.

The good news is that as powerful as the conference is, Rutgers could get lots of help from a free-for-all in the next two months if the Scarlet Knights take care of their own business.

The other good news is that Rutgers will still be at home to start the NCAAs no matter what their tournament seed.

But losing to Syracuse is the equivalent to losing to a middle of the upper pack seed in the postseason.

In that regard, keep in mind that if Rutgers is only a No. 3, a No. 6 will be at the RAC and the way the national scene is playing out at the moment, there are a lot of teams that could land in that spot and cause trouble.

A No.4 seed brings a No. 5, which means an even tougher opponent.

A No. 5 or No. 6 and Rutgers becomes an inherent underdog in its own house.

On the other hand, even though it could take longer than two years ago to operate smoothly, one could recall the words of Geno Auriemma last season.

"Rutgers is not the team you want to play in March, especially in the tournament."

If that becomes reality again, one can just take a deep breath and consider all the miscues of the moment as Rutgers shooping at the shoe store to find the best pair of Cinderella slippers available.

Penn On The Rebound -- Again

Following Penn's tough loss to La Salle at the finish in The Palestra Monday night, which conversely was a great win for the Explorers, Quakers coach Pat Knapp left some reaction on the Guru's phone while the Guru was in the air Tuesday returning from North Carolina.

"Yeah, it was very, very tough," Knapp said of the loss. "I thought the game was in our hands. We didn't play well enough to win. It was a combination of a lack of aggressiveness on our part on offense and some inexperience out front in the guard spot with Sarah Bucar being out.

"And certainly La Salle made some big shots," Knapp said. "We have to take our experiences of getting that far and turn the corner. So now it's time to move on to Princeton."

The Quakers begin play in the Ivy League Saturday on the road against the Tigers.

Meanwhile Knapp's father suffered a hip injury during the Temple game at The Palestra Friday night when a youngster running in the aisle way didn't see him and knocked him over.

Knapp said the surgery went well, his father is strong and there are no complications but it will be a long recovery period.

-- Mel

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Authors

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Mel Greenberg covers college and professional women’s basketball for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he has worked for 38 years. Greenberg pioneered national coverage of the game, including the original Top 25 women's college poll. His knowledge has earned him nicknames such as "The Guru" and "The Godfather," as well as induction into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame in 2007.

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Jonathan Tannenwald is a producer with Philly.com. In addition to covering the local college scene, he spent two years as the Washington Mystics beat writer for Women's Hoops Guru. He also writes his own blog, Soft Pretzel Logic, which covers men's college basketball, football, and a variety of other sports.

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Kathleen Radebaugh is a recent graduate of Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia. She was the women's basketball beat writer for the school's newspaper, The Hawk, and became the sports editor her sophomore year. She was also a four-year member of the varsity crew team.

Other contributors

-- Erin Semagin Damio covers the University of Connecticut and the WNBA's Connecticut Sun for the blog, and contributes other features. The Storrs, Conn., native also attends Northeastern University, where she is a coxswain on the varsity crew team.

-- Acacia O'Connor is based in Washington, D.C., where she reports on the Mystics and the college basketball scene in the nation's capital. A graduate of Vassar college, she played on the varsity women's basketball team and was editor of the student newspaper.

To read the old version of Women's Hoops Guru, click here.

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 7, 2009 7:40 AM.

The previous post in this blog was N.C. State's Yow won't return for rest of season.

The next post in this blog is Maryland Puts Wake to Sleep Separating Threes From the Forest.

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