(Change of Guru blog venue alert: The platform program housing the blog will be changing as quickly as perhaps Thursday with a new URL etc. Jonathan will post info but the philly.com link will re-route and once this is all figured out you can change your links -- those of you who have them. Until the Guru gets his driving lessons and gains control, the workaround is he will email Jonathan who will post at the new site. Everything to date is archived and the original blog is still operational and can be utilized, if need be, especially by non-Inquirer team members who have been busy at the moment in their current lives. -- Mel)
By Mel Greenberg
Well a year ago your Guru took you through the first NCAA-Mock Bracket exercise for the women's tournament step by step.
Having found the right deal (love those Amex points), the Guru will be heading to Indy in the morning and will be able to stay through the entire process before jetting back to the home office for Friday's desk shift.
This time around, we will play things by ear because of (1) the precede involving a new posting structure, and (2) the NCAA itself will be involved with live-blogging from the room and video.
Also, some of the nuances are different with four current coaches -- Notre Dame's Muffet McGraw, DePaul's Doug Bruno, Texas A&M's Gary Blair, and Oklahoma's Sherri Coale -- involved in the exercise.
Remember this, whatever exists now is supposed to be considered as existing on selection weekend knowing that in reality off the season to date, there will be major changes between now and the end of conference tournaments.
The dynamic is much different than a year ago. Seven teams were solid at the top -- though not necessarily in pecking order -- and remaind so the rest of the way with three other teams fighting for No. 8, the final No. 2 seed, which Texas A&M ultimately won out.
This will be interesting in that this committee is going to be loaded with ESPN types and under-loaded with print types, vanishing breed that we are. Mechelle Voepel had withdrawn, would not comment on whether she is checking the accuracy of Pat Summitt's 999 wins to date, but Charlie Creme will be in the room. So will the real committee to gawk at our deliberations.
Unlike a year ago, many conferences are in flux, but based on what the NCAA gave us as mythical conference champions, the mickeys are off target in terms of disruption.
Last season, we were given Charlotte as a surprise winner in the Atlantic Ten, when either Xavier or George Washington would have been nice. That created the three or four total team argument for Atlantic 10 representation.
So first look at what has been given in simulation as conference tournament champions on our charts. Teams so designated will be considered in the tournament and will not have to be part of our individual 33 at-large or other at-large for discussion columns on our ballots.
Not all conference champions were given and remember this is the Guru's view only the rest of the way in this post..
ACC -- North Carolina -- Fine. One less at-large team to worry about.
Atlantic Sun -- East Tennessee -- One-team conference no matter who wins.
Atlantic Ten -- Xavier -- Eliminates the wrong winner. A year ago, there was a clear top but not now. The Guru thinks a second or third team might be at-large worthy, but will place a bunch of A-10 teams in the others for discussion column in a little bit.
Big Ten -- Ohio State -- The Buckeyes find ways to get out faster then we put them in, but, again, another team not needed to take up space as an at-large vote.
Big East -- Connecticut -- Here's what's amazing from last year. The Huskies could be under-performing and still head for the Trenton regional because nearest geography in principle makes the match a cinch because all other prime contenders for top seeds are located elsewhere in terms of what is a close site for them. The exception, which has been written elsewhere, is California, which cannot play in the Berkeley regional.
C-USA -- SMU. Academic because it might be a one-team deal, here.
Ivy League -- Princeton -- Definitely and appropriately academic for the Ivies. No tournament here, so no wrong winner.
Metro Atlantic -- Marist -- Takes care of business and no worries about needed rescue because of a tournament upset.
Ohio Valley -- Eastern Illinois -- One team deal even though this team was presented holding bid with Murray State named regular season champ.
Patriot -- American. -- Same dynamic as directly above.
SEC -- Tennessee -- Oddly, a wrong winner, but one that would be on an at-large list. Will affect seed discussion, however, for Auburn.
Southern -- Samford -- Wrong winner. Chattanooga will be discussed.
Summit -- Oakland -- Wrong winner and South Dakots State needed a rescue.
Sun Belt -- Middle Tennessee -- Wring winner but actualy best team.
West Coast -- Gonzaga -- Right team won.
Western Athletic -- Nevada winner with Fresno State regular season champ that will land in the NWIT.
So now it's on to the next step. Pick the best 33. Remember what has already been said, so you won't see Xavier, Tennessee, Ohio State, or North Carolina on this list. Also, in reality, some of these would later be deducted if they actually won conference titles.
Going off of Wednsday morning's glance at Colllege RPI.com standings and data, here's the group for at-large. Some conference teams the Guru is temporarily moving over to discussion column to see how they compare because they are closer to borderline/bubble territority.
And a time out to talk about Rutgers because of all the concerns of the fan base.
The Guru will place Rutgers in his 33 not because the Scarlet Knights are hosting and it makes marketing sense. The reason is no matter how far down the line RU is dropped, once the comparisons begin for the last spots a new dynamic begins.
Rutgers compares less favorably to the premium guys, but so what? They are already in the tournament. But in looking at who is left to take, Rutgers off its schedule, etc., compares favorably.
Now if the team were to slide further in reality over the next month, then tough luck. Penn State didn't get a free pass to its arena in 2006.
Integrity of the tournament is still important although if Rutgers makes the field with a low seed and suddenly has its act together, the Scarlet Knights could be the most dangerous low seed in the history of the tournament since Louisiana Tech was a No. 11 when it met Temple in 2005.
The At-Larges
Duke
Florida State
Maryland
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Boston College
Oklahoma
Kansas State
Baylor
Texas A&M
Iowa State
Texas
Oklahoma State
Louisville
Pittsburgh
DePaul
Rutgers
Notre Dame
Indiana
California
Stanford
Arizona State
Auburn
Florida
Vanderbilt
South Dakota State
Total 26 but 2 could be off list as conference champs.
Others for discussion
Charlotte
George Washington
St. Bonaventure
Richmond
Temple
Texas Tech
Marquette
Villanova
Michigan State
Purdue
Minnesota
Iowa
VCU -- could become conference champ
Wis-Green Bay -- coune become conference champ
UCLA
Georgia
LSU
16 and two could become champ
That's It
Talk to you from Indy
-- Mel
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