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Closer Than It Appears

rowand%20curtain%20call.jpgHere's something that could happen this weekend:

The Phillies could be in first place in the National League East.

(Did those words just doom them?)

The New York Mets have lost 9 of their last 10 and hold just a two-game lead over the Braves and Phillies in the East. The Mets play the New York Yankees this weekend at Yankee Stadium, and the Yankees are hot. They have won 11 of their last 13. The Braves have lost 8 of their last 11, and the Minnesota Twins could sweep them with a victory tonight at the Metrodome. The Braves then play three this weekend against the Cleveland Indians at Jacobs Field.

The Phillies play three this weekend against the Detroit Tigers at the Bank.

Can the Phillies keep the momentum going, or will they follow their pattern of sweeping a series then stumbling immediately afterward? I know one thing: the Sox stink, while the Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball.

It will not be easy.

*

The Phillies continued to play well in yesterday's 8-4 victory over the Chicago White Sox at Citizens Bank Park. Aaron Rowand helped the Phillies sweep the Sox with his grand slam in the seventh inning, Rowand is loved in Chicago. He will never buy another drink in that town again. But I have a feeling people in Philly might buy him a round, too.

*

Antonio Alfonseca continues to pitch superbly with Tom Gordon and Brett Myers on the DL. I'm not sure where they would be without him pitching this well, but I'm pretty sure they would not be two games behind the Mets.

*

Kyle Kendrick pitched well in his big-league debut. I think he will get one more start, with the next one coming next week in Cleveland. Kendrick pitched six innings, something Freddy Garcia accomplished just four times in his 11 starts.

*

homeplate.jpgI hear a lot from people who say the Phillies offense is feast or famine, and because of that they never will win consistently. In my opinion, there's nothing quite like anecdotal evidence. I mean, if somebody says it outloud it must be totally true, right?

But I wanted to check anyway.

Here's what I found looking at the five teams in the National League East: the Phillies have the most balanced offense -- in terms of feast or famine -- in the division. Here's how I figured it out: I put a team's scoring into three categories -- 0 to 3 runs, 4 to 6 runs and 7 or more runs. Why those three? Hey, why not? Actually, I just figured 4 to 6 runs is, you know, average. And a team that scores three or fewer runs in a game is going to lose most of the time, while a team that scores seven or more runs in a game is going to win most of the time.

The Phillies scored 0 to 3 runs 19 times (28.8 percent) this season, 4-6 runs 30 times (45.5 percent) and 7 or more runs 17 times (25.8 percent).

The Mets have scored 0 to 3 runs 28 times (43.8 percent), 4 to 6 runs 21 times (32.8 percent) and 7 or more runs 15 times (23.4 percent).

The Braves have scored 0 to 3 runs 28 times (42.4 percent), 4 to 6 runs 21 times (31.8 percent) and 7 or more runs 17 times (25.8 percent).

The Marlins have scored 0 to 3 runs 25 times (37.9 percent), 4 to 6 runs 24 times (36.4 percent) and 7 or more runs 17 times (25.8 percent).

The Nationals have scored 0 to 3 runs 33 times (50.8 percent), 4 to 6 runs 22 times (33.8 percent) and 7 or more runs 9 times (13.8 percent).

In my humble opinion, it shows that this "feast of famine" talk is junk. It might seem like the Phillies "score two runs one night and 10 the next," but no more so than other teams. In fact, much less than other teams.

Thoughts?

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In this week's Sports Illustrated -- those slumping Mets are on the cover -- the SI Players Poll asks, "Which players gets the least from the most talent?" Pat Burrell tied for third place with five percent of the vote (A.J. Burnett and Daniel Cabrera also got five percent of the vote). Wily Mo Pena took first with 13 percent and J.D. Drew took second with 10 percent. That's two former first-round picks for the Phillies in the top three.

Comments (5)

mark:

great work on the feast or famine and the blog in general. another good stat to check the feast/famine would be to find the median and the standard deviations of the mean and median.

oz:

feast or famine?

it's all about the water-downed pitching staffs...how many teams have more than one 'ace'?

Josh:

What would the same analysis for runs allowed look like?

John in LA:

Zo,

You're nothing if not thorough.

Being here in LA, I had the pleasure of watching the Mets the last few nites. Amazing how toothless they looked. And how quickly fortunes change in baseball. Part of me thinks that if the Phils hadn't gotten embarrassed in KC over the weekend, they might not have come out as hard against Chicago. We'll never know, but I'll gladly take anything I can get at this point.

As to Gillick: hard to figure this guy out. Obviously incredibly bright, but the Garcia thing is puzzling.

Joe:

I'm not sure about feast or famine, but I do know this: In the month of June they're 9-4 and have been outscored by 10 runs. That's pretty efficient. However, in their most recent run of "success" (i.e., seasons over .500), I do recall many times when they would win 10-2 in the first game against a team and then the series. I suspect this could be attributed to meaningless Bobby Abreu homeruns.

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toddzolecki.jpg

Todd Zolecki is in his sixth season covering the Phillies. Born and raised in Milwaukee – he suffered through the Packers’ crushing loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field in January – he graduated from the University of Minnesota with a journalism degree.

Hear Todd's analysis before every new series on the Inquirer's PhilliesCast. Download it here, or subscribe to the feed.

Have a question about the Phillies? Ask Todd at Philly.com's Q&A page.


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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on June 14, 2007 8:47 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Cole Helps Chase the Mets.

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