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Fit to Be Tied

howard%20celebrates.jpgFans have been watching the Phillies in record numbers this season.

They should be tuned in tonight.

It's knotted up with six games to go, folks. The reeling Padres lost last night to the Giants to push the Phillies into a first-place tie in the National League wild-card race. (Keep an eye on those Rockies, everybody. They could be big trouble.) So here we are again: It's late in the season and the Phillies control their destiny. They had the wild card lead with eight games to play in 2003, but finished 1-7. They had the wild card lead with 16 games to play in 2005, but finished one game behind the Astros. And last season they had the wild-card lead with six games to play, but finished three behind the Dodgers.

Can they finally make it happen?

They wanted the opportunity. They have it. Now they have to play three against a tough Braves team that is not dead yet, and certainly would love nothing more than to spoil the Phillies' postseason plans. But according to Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds report, the Phillies are the favorites to win the wild card. It gives the Phillies a 47.7 percent chance to win the wild card. The Padres (27.1 percent) and Rockies (12.2 percent) follow behind them.

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Here's what happens if there is a tie for the wild card in the NL East, where the Mets' lead has shrunk to two. Baseball Prospectus gives the Phillies a 9 percent chance to win the division.

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big%20chuck.jpgCharlie Manuel might need to make the playoffs to keep his job.

Pat Gillick remains non-committal about his manager's future, despite the fact Manuel has his team in this spot after countless injuries and one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. He offered slight praise of Manuel yesterday, but also would not say if Manuel had done enough to keep his job. Why? Maybe Gillick honestly does not want to talk about it. But while there has been speculation elsewhere that Manuel is very likely to return, there are indications inside the organization that Manuel's return is not a slam dunk.

Sometimes you have to read between the lines. Ed Wade strongly defended Larry Bowa for years every time his job status came up. But once Wade had doubts, he said he no longer would give daily updates about his manager. Read between the lines. David Montgomery did not return phone calls about Wade's job status from the final week of the 2005 season until the first week after the season. Read between the lines. If Gillick knew he wanted Manuel back, don't you think he would lean over to Manuel one day and say, "Relax, Charlie. We'll take care of you." He hasn't, at least as far as what Manuel has told us. Read between the lines, and remember Gillick evaluated Manuel after last season.

Do I think Manuel will be back? If I had to guess I'd say it's more likely than unlikely. But if this team fails to make the playoffs, I would not be surprised if he is not. Gillick's contract expires after 2008. He might want to bring in his own guy for one last run before he walks away from Philly.

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In this week's Phillies Report, we look at Tom Gordon's resurgence, how the Phillies could be the best base stealers in baseball history and, yes, the bat-sniffing habits of Chris Coste. Speaking of bat sniffing -- did I just write that? -- Coste is not alone. Ted Williams, Don Mattingly and Wade Boggs also sniffed their bats.

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Phil Sheridan writes about the two small guys in Philly who have had a major impact on two offenses in Philly: Jimmy Rollins and Brian Westbrook. Rollins continues his run to NL MVP tonight. Westbrook hopefully continues to score touchdowns for my fantasy football team.

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I learned with a little help from a friend (code name: The A-Train) that the Phillies will have alternate home uniforms next season.

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Pitching match ups for this week's series against the Braves.

Comments (18)

John in LA:

Going to be a long next 6 days. Manuel deserves another 2 years, playoffs or not.
Not sorry - at all - to see Gillick go after next year. Too tense to mention anything else.

RJ:

I really hope the alternate uniforms are the powder blues!!! GO PHILLIES!

Joe in Haddonfield:

The Braves are only 3 back, 8-2 in their last 10 games. Just like the Phillies.
A sweep and things get messy.
Braves pick up 2 of 3, yikes.
You know Bobby Cox is going to get his team ready.
And with Hudson and Smoltz throwing, nothing will be easy.
Got to jump out tonight, set the tone and grab the most "winable" game vs. James.

It seems like a million years since that April sweep by the Braves in the opening. Something tells me the team leaders and Charlie remember it like yesterday.

This is the best drama on television. More plot lines and twists and better characters.

John in LA:

Good points. Braves will be tough...

Murph:

Joe is right. Get out in front early tonight and put them away.

That happens, Wednesday and Thursday don't look as bad. Not a good time to be playing the Braves but we control our own destiny at this point.

Very very nervous...buckle up everyone and Go Phils!


Louis:

The Phils knocked Hudson around earlier this month. Smoltz is pitching extremely well lately. I see the Phils' starter for Thursday is "TBA".

I don't care for the powder blues. They look like pajamas to me. Maybe they'd look better in the modern loose-fitting style than the tight ones of the 70s and 80s.

Way back in the beginning of the year I'm sure many of us looked at the schedule and saw these Braves games at the end and thought they might be big. My oh my...

I stayed up late and watched the Giants-Padres last night. The Giants finally came through and made it look surprisingly easy. No Bonds in the lineup - I can't help but wonder if all of that is just a stifling distraction to that team.

Pat H:

I haven't had butterflies like this ,since 1980. I was a young man then. Don't call your cardiologists,if you plan on watchin these games. If your not on board, with these Phillies by now, contact your physician,and tell him you don't have a pulse! P - H - L - L - L - I - E - S...... Phillies !

Frank:

The powder blues were road unis, so I doubt we'll see that for a home alternate. Maybe the ol' seventies era "P," though?

jimmymack:

Well, we are right where we wanted to be...six left and tied. It's all on the players now, no excuses about injuries, bad free agent pickups, etc. The boys gotta come up big time for the next 6 games. I like our chances, these guys remind you so much of the '93 team, all heart. If they play with the intensity they brought to the Mets games, I feel real good. Everyone going to game, let's make some serious noise in this homestand. Time to rock the house, make the Braves and Nats know we are there.

Manual absolutely deserves to be back and I think it sucks that Gillick is waffling on this question. Charlie has done a remarkable job all things considered.

Please, please don't let us have to watch Eaton on this homestand, I can't beleive that even the players feel good when he starts. I know I don't.

Murph:

I think Kendrick is a go for Thursday.

How nice would it be to win today and tomorrow and Bobby Cox sit Smoltz down. Wishful thinking yes, but it would be nice!

The Phils seem to do well at home coming off a day's rest and the bats usually get the job done.

We could take a huge step tonight with a W. I really like the Giants and Dodgers chances tonight as well.

Nice touch with the rally towels. There are plenty of corporate sponsors out there to have them for the remaining five games too.

UGH. I hate those alternate uniforms. Those hats in particular remind me of the '94 abominations.

The Phillies' web site is reporting that Adam Eaton will start Thursday against Smoltz. Make of that what you will.

Phila Fan In DC:

The aspect I like least about those uniforms (if they are the ones which TJ posted) is that they appear to be most similar to the 1949 jersey. It was 1950, according the the Hall of Fame's great website (http://exhibits.baseballhalloffame.org/dressed_to_the_nines/database.htm) when the Phils changed their jersey to include the pinstripes on the home jerseys- and we haven’t looked back since. I think it would be a better PR/salesmanship move if we celebrated the 1950 or 1980 teams on a uniform that has a "throwback look with a modern touch,” which, I think is a great idea.

I thought it was great that the Phils have two hats- one for most of the season, one for interleague play. What's the reason for the change?

The last time a major alternate jersey for the Phils came out (besides the BP jerseys), according to the Hall of Fame, was 1979. From what I've seen, it was only worn for one game- they were virtually all maroon (http://www.sportsecyclopedia.com/nl/philadelphiaphils/ChristensonPhi.jpg)

Todd, I hope you'll mention this to the Phils marketing and advertising sales people. I'm all for an alternate home jersey, so long as it isn't the Nationals' or Braves' bright red versions, especially one that has a "throwback look with a modern touch" (the t-shirts, hats and clothes I wear most often for our Fightins are exactly those, throwback designs) but why not draw from the championship teams?

bobby:

Bring Charlie back? That's a tough one. Personally, although I can agree with all those who abhor his in-game moves, I would have to say bring him back. Why? He's part of the fabric of this team. Part of what makes them fun to watch and cheer for. And yes, part of that fun is questioning his strategy or lack thereof!

My biggest complaint about Mr. Manuel is his most vulnerable issue, the one that may still cost them the playoffs again this year: the Phillies' horrible 2007 start. Losing 11 of the first 15 games was a killer, especially in light of past years' bad starts. Can we blame that on Charlie? Well, I think you can make as good a case as any that the manager is responsible for having the team ready to play on opening day. Oh, but what we wouldn't give for just 2 or 3 of those losses now!

But still I say bring him back, with one caveat: the onwership of this team has to cough up enough money to bring in 2 quality starting pitchers and a reliever. Otherwise, we're just playing the same old game.

My biggest question on the Charlie Manuel issue is this: How will Pat Gillick be able to sleep at night if he does indeed let Charlie go?

Steve D:

Thought it telling that Arbuckle announced the Taguchi deal. I would have no objection to John Russell running the team next year and Arbuckle GM in 09. But I suspect one of the two positions will be filled by a minority by 09. That gives Jr. the leg up for GM but maybe Juan Samuel will be ready to take over as field manager by then.

Drew:

Best news for the Phillies came from San Diego: Cameron and Bradley are out for the rest of the season; their two best offensive players on a team starved for offense.

Hopefully, all the near misses over the years will make the Phillies focus like a lazer beam on each play--Go Phillies

B Dub:

I’m one board, I’ve been on board all year, and I can’t wait to be done with class tonight. So I can watch what is left of the game.

I think part of the reason Gillick isn’t commenting Manual is, if the chips fall right, Gillick might leave after this year. If that’s the case he might want to leave it up to the next guy to sign Manual.

jimmymack:

You want to see either hypocrisy, irony or stupidity?

Gillick waffles on Manual coming back and what do we have on the Phillies website today? Featured story is "Skipper Manual fueling playoff run"...if you subscribe to their e-mails, you got one today with "Manual helping fuel playoff run" in subject line.

Maybe a staff meeting upstairs might be helpful on what message they want to send.

Major league players, minor league front office.

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Author

toddzolecki.jpg

Todd Zolecki is in his sixth season covering the Phillies. Born and raised in Milwaukee – he suffered through the Packers’ crushing loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field in January – he graduated from the University of Minnesota with a journalism degree.

Hear Todd's analysis before every new series on the Inquirer's PhilliesCast. Download it here, or subscribe to the feed.

Have a question about the Phillies? Ask Todd at Philly.com's Q&A page.


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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on September 25, 2007 8:40 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Phillies Favored to Beat the Padres.

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