If you pay real close attention, you might have noticed that every Tuesday in The Inquirer's Phillies Report, I mention the Phillies' postseason odds.
Those numbers come courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
The Phillies today have a 48.27 percent chance to make the playoffs with six games to play. According to Baseball Prospectus, "the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Standings Report."
But here's the interesting thing about the latest report. The Phillies, who trail the San Diego Padres by a 1/2 game in the NL wild-card race and the Mets by 2 1/2 games in the NL East, have better odds than the Padres (43.82 percent chance). Interesting. Maybe that's because the Padres finish their season with seven on the road in San Francisco and Milwaukee, while the Phillies finish with six at home against Atlanta and Washington.
Do I like the Phillies' chances?
Yes, I do. But there's trouble on the horizon: Tim Hudson on Wednesday and John Smoltz on Thursday.
*
Time is running out, and if the Phillies miss the playoffs by a game they might remember Sunday's 5-3 loss to Washington as another lost opportunity.
*
Should the Phillies have allowed Cole Hamels to exceed his pitch count? He threw 76 pitches, with Charlie Manuel saying Saturday that Hamels would throw around 75.
It's an interesting debate. You often hear pitchers, pitching coaches and managers talk about how hard innings are. Were they a struggle? Were they relatively easy? I think Hamels probably could have pitched another inning without taxing his left elbow, which forced him to miss more than a month. He had retired the final eight batters he faced, and he said he thought he had another 10 to 15 pitches in him.
But, naturally, the catch is Hamels overextending himself and reinjuring himself -- and the potential short-term and long-term damage that goes along with that.
*
Personally, even before Hamels was removed, I said in the press box that the offense was costing them big. They had stranded eight runners in the first six innings. A big hit here or there and perhaps Manuel uses his bullpen differently.
*
Jim Salisbury writes about how this late in the season, even an 8-2 road trip might not be good enough.
*
Ryan Howard could set the single-season strikeout record with a strikeout tomorrow night against Atlanta. He has 195 strikeouts, which ties Adam Dunn's mark set in 2004.
*
A little tease for tomorrow's Phillies Report: I ask a player about his bat-sniffing habits.
Yes, you read that correctly.


Comments (25)
I like those numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Even more, I like that the Padres (mentally speaking) are self-destructing. See Cameron, Mike for more.
On my way back from D.C. yesterday, I was listening to the Padres on XM. And it was great to hear their radio team basically give up on them, when they trailed 6-1 in the 8th. That's just how little offense they have. All things considered, I too like the Phillies' odds. Let's get it done.
Posted by V | September 24, 2007 9:58 AM
Posted on September 24, 2007 09:58
A win yesterday would have been nice. Very winnable game. But it's tough to find fault with an 8-2 road trip. All things considered (the awful April, the injuries, the pitching woes, etc.), having a decent shot at the post-season with six home games to go is a nice state to be in. Forget about making the playoffs. This is the playoffs.
P.S. I can't fault Charlie for pulling Hamels. Alfonseca was going to end up with the ball eventually anyway. The Phils didn't lose because they pulled Hamels. 16 baserunners produced 3 runs. That had something to do with it.
Posted by Louis | September 24, 2007 10:17 AM
Posted on September 24, 2007 10:17
I still say you have to go back with Hamels in the 6th (at least to start the inning off). He was ready to go back out and pitched great in the 4th and 5th innings.
Now it might have been the trainer's call and Charlie had no choice, but from the reports I read, this was Charlie's call with virtually no input from our ace.
Furthermore, his decision to bat Helms was just silly when you still had Coste on the bench. While Coste has struggled, he did almost hit one out on Saturday (I believe it was against Cordero too, but I could be wrong).
Now on to more important things...like getting back to winning and some help from the Giants and Dodgers. Come on Barry Zito, show us why you got all that cash from the Giants.
I still like our chances. Tuesday is a must win before we face Hudson and Smoltz.
Posted by Murph | September 24, 2007 10:46 AM
Posted on September 24, 2007 10:46
Disappointing, but it's hard to get mad at this team after the last 10 days.
Colorado kind of scares me.
Posted by John in LA | September 24, 2007 10:53 AM
Posted on September 24, 2007 10:53
The fault with an 8-2 road trip is that the Phils are in a position where they can not afford any more losses. Yes, Alfonseca was going to end up with the ball at some point, but the earlier that happened, the worse it would be. If we could have avoided the 2 runs given up by Geary and Alfonseca in the 6th, it's a 3-3 game. That's a pretty strong argument for getting one more inning out of Hamels, and not getting to Kane Davis at all.
I'd say the Phils have to go 5-1 at worst this week. Is it possible to lose 2 and still get in? Yeah, but...
Posted by bobby | September 24, 2007 10:56 AM
Posted on September 24, 2007 10:56
I agree, the Rockies scare me, too. But that fluky Milton Bradley injury may tip the scales.
Posted by bobby | September 24, 2007 10:58 AM
Posted on September 24, 2007 10:58
I'm looking forward to hearing about why Coste sniffs his bats. He seems to do it after every foul ball.
Here's a suggestion for another investigative piece - why does Ruiz sometimes abandon calling pitches by using the normal "fingers-between-the-legs" method and go to a third-base-coach method?
He seems to do it randomly, even when there are no runners on base.
Posted by rubylegs | September 24, 2007 11:27 AM
Posted on September 24, 2007 11:27
Bought my 3 tickets to the first home playoff game this morning. Let's hope they actually get used!
Posted by bobby | September 24, 2007 12:39 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 12:39
I don't have the exact stats but it seems that the last 5 or 6 times Alfonseca has come in he has given up a run or been taken out without retiring a batter.
How can you justify resting your relievers when you jeopardize the post-season by bringing him in?
Posted by Marcpc | September 24, 2007 1:04 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 13:04
Todd,
I'd like to know whose decision it is not to bring up Mateo.
I tend to believe it is the owners (i.e. David "I have no clue but just count the money" Montgomery) and not Gillick's.
Any way you could ask Charlie or Pat Gillick their thoughts on this?
Would be nice to have him when we can't go with Romero, Gordon or Myers.
Posted by Murph | September 24, 2007 1:05 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 13:05
While I basically agree that this already is the playoffs in a matter of speaking, I am trying very hard to remember the many recent seasons similar to this one, where we come close to the postseason only to fall short. With that in mind, I have told myself to demand the REAL postseason and accept no alternates from the Phils this year! (Which I think they have a good chance of making; I bought my 3 NLDS tickets this morning also.)
GO PHILS!
Posted by craig | September 24, 2007 1:13 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 13:13
And before I forget how angry I was yesterday, WHY BAT HELMS IN THE 9th???
Posted by craig | September 24, 2007 1:14 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 13:14
I can't fault Manual for pulling Hamels, I have visions of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Instant gratification, long term misery. I do question batting Helms, he has shown little indication all year that he would/could come up big in that situation, I'm with Murph on that one, spot called for Coste.
The men LOB lost the game yesterday, let's hope the bats were in a one game funk.
Posted by jimmymack | September 24, 2007 1:32 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 13:32
8-2 is a great road trip. for some reason the bats struggle at rfk- maybe it is the funeral ambience in that place. it's important to be greedy this time of year, but winning 3 out of 4 there was the minimum needed, and they got that. i like that myers, gordon, and romero will have 2 straight days off. i can't believe how well and often they have pitched in this stretch. i'm just waiting for someone to grab their shoulder lately. i guess that's the philly pessimism.
san fran is so terrible, i just can't believe they will help us. colorado is scary, you know they feel the same way we do: the team is playing too well not to make it. one team at least is definitely not going to the post-season, so someone is going to be disappointed. i'm tired of being disappointed...
Posted by mike | September 24, 2007 1:41 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 13:41
Hopefully we get some help from San Francisco tonight, the Pads don't have much offense; Especially since Milton Bradley is out forever with a Torn ACL, and Mike Cameron is day-to-day now.
I'm going to wait a few more days until I get mine post-season tickets. I'll be there Thursday and Sunday... I would love to see a playoff clenching game on Sunday.
*my fingers are crossed*
Posted by RJ | September 24, 2007 2:10 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 14:10
These games with the Braves are going to be tough. Atlanta does not have an easy out 1-8 in the batting order (kind of like the Phils, though not as explosive).
So what's the word on the rotation? Does Eaton get the ball against Atlanta? Four-man rotation at this point after the off day today maybe (not likely)?
Big game for Moyer. Like someone already said, you don't want to drop the opener and then face Hudson and Smoltz. The latter of the two has been particularly stingy lately.
Posted by Louis | September 24, 2007 2:50 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 14:50
The matchups in thier respected games favor the phills over the padres in the final week, Philly is at home San Diego is on the road. So what could be the downfall????
Eaton on Thursday against Smoltz!!!! Phillies don't start Eaton!!!!
- Phills should win the wild card by one game.
Go Phills!
Posted by Mitch | September 24, 2007 4:47 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 16:47
According to the probable pitchers on phillies.com, we got:
Moyer on Tuesday
Lohse on Wednesday
Eaton on Thursday, and
Hamels on Friday.
Where the hell is Kendrick? This is the perfect situation to skip Eaton with the day off. And, if we go into a one game playoff on Monday, we could pitch Kendrick on three days rest or Lohse on normal rest. I hope the website screwed up on this one because there is no way you skip Kendrick in favor of Eaton.
Posted by Ed S. | September 24, 2007 4:52 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 16:52
I agree. Let Kendrick go on Thursday and if we have to, use the Eaton/Durbin combo (that kills me to type that) on Friday.
Durbin has pitched well out of the bullpen in his last few games. When Eaton gives up the 4th run in the 3rd inning, bring JD in and see what happens.
I have us going 4-2 in the last 6. That probably gets us the tie for the WC, with some help.
Let's see how much pride San Francisco has tonight.
Just to make it interesting, I hope the Mets go down too.
Go Phils!
Posted by Murph | September 24, 2007 5:34 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 17:34
I guess we're all Barry Zito fans tonight. It sure would be nice to start the homestand tied for that Wildcard spot.
Posted by Louis | September 24, 2007 7:49 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 19:49
The Phillies have played their guts out the last 3-4 weeks. Not enough pitching to scare opponents, but you can't question the effort.
It would be great to see them win the wild card and build in 2008, with pitching.
Who cares about Howard's Ks? Any other team in baseball would love to have him. You think the Yankees or Red Sox wouldn't love to have him at 1B?
Posted by Eric | September 24, 2007 10:28 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 22:28
1:02AM EST - Visquel flips to second... And the Phillies now have a share of the NL Wildcard!
Posted by Louis | September 25, 2007 1:07 AM
Posted on September 25, 2007 01:07
Yeah Eric sweet music!
Posted by Mario | September 25, 2007 4:57 AM
Posted on September 25, 2007 04:57
6 to play and tied for the WC. Sound familiar?
Couldn't ask for a better Monday night.
Now it's our turn to get out there.
I will be waving my rally towel like crazy at the park.
Go Phils!
Posted by Murph | September 25, 2007 7:58 AM
Posted on September 25, 2007 07:58
I can't beleive I now have to root for Barry Bonds to hit a ton of HR's while the Giants play the Padres. The Giants, Brewers and Nationals are now my "other" favorite teams for a few days.
Posted by jimmymack | September 25, 2007 8:26 AM
Posted on September 25, 2007 08:26