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T-Minus 10

hour%20glass.jpgThe Phillies left Busch Stadium last night with countless scenarios running through their heads.

None of them worked in their favor.

They know they have just 10 games to play. They also know they trail the New York Mets by 2 1/2 games in the National League East, and the San Diego Padres by 2 1/2 games in the NL wild-card race.

Charlie Manuel figures 89 to 90 victories could put them in decent position to make the postseason. But because they lost last night to the St. Louis Cardinals in 10 innings, 2-1, they have to play no worse than 7-3 the rest of the way to make that happen.

Even that might not be enough.

Because even if they finish 7-3, the Mets and Padres would need to play no better than 5-6 to finish in a first-place tie with the Phillies. So not only do the Phillies need to play their tails off the rest of the way, they need a lot of help from the Mets and Padres.

That's asking a lot.

*

The Phillies open a four-game series tonight against the Nationals at RFK Stadium. Jim Salisbury takes a look back at last year's fatal late-season trip to RFK, and how the Phillies must avoid a similar fate this time.

So what would be fatal? A split. A split would be fatal. Because if they split, they might need to sweep the Braves and Nats at home next week at Citizens Bank Park to have a sniff of a chance.

*

Can't blame the pitching last night. The offense simply came up small, going 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position and stranding 11 runners. Adam Wainwright pitched well for the Cardinals, but the Phillies still had numerous chances.

"We talk about big games," Manuel said. "This one here might have been the biggest one we've played."

*

Cole Hamels felt fine, a day after he returned to the mound. Also in today's Phillies notebook, Ruben Amaro Jr. could be headed to Houston in the very near future (and possibly with former boss Ed Wade) and Antonio Alfonseca won't be available until Sunday because he dropped the appeal on his four-game suspension.

*

Pitching match ups for this weekend's series in DC.

The Mets open a four-game series tonight in Florida. The Padres play the Pirates tonight and host the Rockies this weekend.

*

The Mets put an end to a Nationals crisis, as the New York Daily News put it. Meanwhile, the San Diego Union-Tribune says the Padres pull some piracy last night in San Diego.

*

Rod Barajas' season with the Phillies has been a disappointment, but he made a big contribution Tuesday. I think it's safe to say that if the Phillies make the postseason, Barajas would not be on the postseason roster. I'm sure that surprises GM Pat Gillick, who signed him to a one-year, $2.5 million contract in the off-season. Barajas has a $5 million club option for 2008 with a $500,000 buyout.

Expect the Phillies to take the buyout.

Comments (12)

Mario from Italy:

7-3 against WSH 7, e FLA 3 with good starting pitchers would be possible but with ours it's difficult.
NYM schedule is a joke also in a slump situation is too easy.
Padres schedule is harder and with contender. They are in a 6w game streak and tonight probably they'll be 7w but all of that were easy match. Now they have 3 Colorado and 4 Brewers. They can't keep winning.
Pitching win, with the best NL attack we can't access to PO.
IMHO this year is been wasted by GM Pat Gillick.

Sorry for my English.

jimmymack:

Offense didn't come thru, but Myers, once again, came up small. We need a real lights out closer next year, and Brett ain't it. And is it me, but in hi-def, sure looks like he has put back on the weight he seemed to have lost early in year.
We have to have 3 of 4 minimum in Washinton, Padres just refuse to go into a funk and Mets won't fold.
Need the baseball God's to smile on Philly, maybe Vuk can put in a good word for us.

Joe in Haddonfield:

I had the same thought about Myers' weight. That can't help mechanics. Didn't work for Schilling last season and earlier this year. Aside from David Wells, it's never a good thing.

A bad night for closers all around. Papelbon, Myers, Capps. Even the great Mariano loaded the bases before getting the save.

The Phils weren't going to clear the table. A loss was coming. The post season is going to take something remarkable from the Marlins and Nationals as much as from the Phils.

John in LA:

Brutal what a difference one loss makes. So many chances in the 8th, 9th and 10th...

Jimmymack's reading my mind: Myers ain't a closer. Maybe someone should let him know the rest of the team is in a playoff race. Why is it people seem to think you simply put a guy in that slot who throws hard and it automatically works? Amazing how low our standards are around here considering he has never won more than 14 games. Again, temperament - being able to stay calm and collected - is kind of important in high-pressure situations. Myers is, frankly, Armando Benitez.

The reason I keep bringing up the possibility of - ugh - Gordon as the closer next year is mainly the fact that he's due 6 million. The brass must love that. I'd take someone like Kevin Gregg any day.

Tonight's another night, though. I remember that Nats game last September that, with rain, didn't start til 11:30 or so. Good times. Should be a stomach-churning next 4 games.

here's hoping that the baseball gods will smile upon us at RFK... we're due some sort of recompense for utley's homerun that wasn't...

John in LA:

Just piling-on now.

Anybody else notice that after the last 2 monumental losses Myers had, both times he said he was walking off the field, convinced the last hit was an out?

Maybe he should check where the defense is set up before throwing the pitch.

V:

Barajas: "I'm going to do whatever it takes."

Sound familiar?

Louis:

Last night hurt. But the big picture is the Phils are 5-1 on the road trip playing against the two teams from last year's NLCS.

I think the Phils' best hope now is that San Diego faces stiffer competition. The Padres have cleaned up against the lifeless Giants and Pirates. Now they get Colorado (we saw recently what they are capable of), and after another stroll through SF, they close the season with 4 at the Brewers, who are in a fight and possess the best home record in the NL. If the Phils can take care of business in DC and stay in striking distance before that last home stand... Well, there's a chance here.

And of course there's the Mets... Who knows? They should be back on track now, but anything can happen. The last couple of weeks have been crazy.

Murph:

Tough one last night. We were lousy with runners in scoring position, but Jimmy needs to get on base more than once. Seems like Chase was always out there on base alone.

Sometimes you need 2 chances to get a runner in, even when making an out, during crunchtime.

Need 3 of 4 this weekend.

Colorado is getting hot at the right time. Need them to help us out vs the Padres.

If we keep this to 1-2 games back before San Diego goes into Milwaukee, I like our chances.

But it all starts tonight.

Off to DC for game one. Go Phils!

Louis:

For the stat-obsessed...

The Phils' three best head-to-head matchups this year are against the teams on this road trip. To date, the Phils are 25-13 against NY (12-6), StL (6-3) and Washington (7-4). 12 over .500, which is, ironically, what the Philles are overall too.

Probably means nothing, just found it interesting.

mike:

i like the phils have a fan in italy. as said by many, the padres not losing has been a killer. phils just won 6 of 7 and gained nothing in the wildcard- thanks sf and pittsburgh. sf did the same to us last year in the next to last series vs. the dodgers i believe. if you look at that sf roster they either have proven major leaguers over 40, or unproven young guys and fringe major leaguers- just a terrible team and can expect no help from them.

john, every time myers has a bad outing you jump him. while i understand the frustration, he actually has good numbers as a reliever. he never closed before in his professional career and they stuck him in there mid-season. and he missed 2 months with a shoulder injury which is much harder to come back from than an elbow (look at gordon and madson). i'm not ready to give up on that experiment yet.

definitely need at least 3 of 4 from nats and a sweep in one of the other 2 series. oh, and a timely collapse from the mets or padres. that last part is not out of the question considering the pads step up in competition. the phils collapsed at the wrong time last year so it's possible...

bobby:

OK, here's my completely irrationally optimistic take...

The Phils losing last night was a GOOD thing, as it wakes them up to the fact that they must not leave men on base anymore. Like someone said, they weren't going to run the table, and last night was a good place to lose.

The Mets beating Washington last night was a GOOD thing, as it prevented the Nats from coming into the Phils series on a roll. Now they have packed it in and will be softer for these next 7 games. Plus, the Mets now think their slide is over and complaceny will put them back into free fall.

Phils sweep the Nats this weekend, take 2 of 3 from the Braves next week, and then 2 of 3 from the Nats again to end the season. The question is which door do they enter the playoffs through? Division champs or wild card winners?

To quote Yul Brynner, "So let it be written, so let it be done."

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Todd Zolecki is in his sixth season covering the Phillies. Born and raised in Milwaukee – he suffered through the Packers’ crushing loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field in January – he graduated from the University of Minnesota with a journalism degree.

Hear Todd's analysis before every new series on the Inquirer's PhilliesCast. Download it here, or subscribe to the feed.

Have a question about the Phillies? Ask Todd at Philly.com's Q&A page.


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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on September 20, 2007 12:33 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Mets Falling, Phillies Gaining.

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