The Zo Zone

The Phillies weren't the team to beat. The Mets won the division last year, so they were the team to beat this year. The Mets had a historic collapse, and the Phillies beat them. Now next year the Phillies can be the team to beat.

It's a good thing you listed your name as anonymous, because that makes no sense. So you're telling me the 1998 or 2004 Marlins were the team to beat? They had just won the World Series. But, oh, right, they had a firesale after each one. The Mets had not significantly improved last offseason (including their best pitcher projected to be out for 80% of the year), whereas the Phillies had made a trade for what they thought would be a #2 starter.

Likewise, let's say the Mets traded for Blanton and signed Posada this offseason, they would again be the team to beat going into next season.

Great logic--keep it coming.

Both players are deserving. Whoever wins will know that the other player was just as valuable to his team. Six of one; a half dozen of the other. It all comes down the opinions of the voters. As we know, some vote with their heart, while others vote with their head. There's not much that we can do about it.
Whoever comes in second, is just as much the MVP as the one who gets the most votes.

Now, let's move on to what's most important.
The only limits on the Phillies' budget to sign players and improve their chances of winning it all are self-imposed. The solution: increase the budget!

J-ROLL WILL WIN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Holliday is a great hitter but a weak fielder. J-Roll does it all, and with a lot of spirit and class. He is the HEART of the Phillies, and a major reason why they accomplished what they did this year. It takes more than hits and homers to be MVP.

Holliday is a great hitter but a weak fielder. J-Roll does it al: terrific hitter, great baserunner, great fielder, and with a lot of spirit and class. He is the HEART of the Phillies, and a major reason why they accomplished what they did this year. It takes more than hits and homers to be MVP.

If J-Roll doesn't win the MVP, the voters clearly were morons -- dazzled by the offense of a left fielder who only adequately fields his undemanding position.

J-Roll played 162 games, exhibiting stellar defense, and he WILLED his team to win.

He's the league MVP.

Rollins deserves MVP. The vote may go against him, the reason being, the writers might be hesitant to pick back to back Phillies MVP'S , with Howard winning last year.Don't forget last year, Howard choice caused quite a stir. Just a theory....GO PHILS!

Rollins is much better in the field and at a much more demanding position. And 41 stolen bases versus 11 for Holliday? But, unfortunately, I think the voters will look at offensive hitting numbers and Holliday's World Series appearance, even though this is supposed to be for regular season play. Personally, I think Jimmy should edge Holliday. Not by a lot, but he should get the nod. Here's hoping he get what he deserves.

The playoffs will not be a factor in the voting because the MVP votes are reqired to be sent in BEFORE the playoffs begin.

Some incredible seasons were had in the NL in '07 with Holiday and Rollins being the best. Chipper Jones and Prince Fielder also put on quite a show. I am biased, but I think the nod goes to J-Roll for MVP.

Ok, I know they both play in hitters parks so people say that contributes to their numbers. However, look at JRoll and Holliday's Home-Away splits for the major offensive categories and you will see a much more telling story:

Rollins:
Average - Home: .300; Away: .293
HR - Home: 18; Away: 12
Doubles - Home: 13; Away: 25
Triples - Home: 11; Away: 9
Runs - Home: 69; Away: 70
RBIs - Home: 47; Away: 47

Holliday:
Average - Home: .376; Away: .301
HR - Home: 25; Away: 11
Doubles - Home: 28; Away: 22
Triples - Home: 5; Away: 1
Runs - Home: 67; Away: 53
RBIs - Home: 82; Away: 55

So Rollins shows more balance and Holliday hitting in Denver shows the obvious benefit. If you remove the home stats and double the road stats, Rollins' season remains the same while Holliday's is good, but not MVP. In fact, the shortstop beats the outfielder in almost all offensive categories.

Rollins (double road stats)
Average - .293
HR - 24
Doubles - 50
Triples - 18
Runs - 140
RBIs - 94

Holliday (double road stats)
Average - .301
HR - 22
Doubles - 44
Triples - 2
Runs - 106
RBIs - 110

Is hitting in front of the home fans (who were not there until late in the season) such a big boost or is it the thin air? If the voters look at this and add fielding into the equation, then Rollins has to get the MVP. And yes, I am biased.

Sean: I completely agree with you and I thank you for posting the ridiculous home/away splits for both players in their entirety. You saved me from having to do all that research myself...

If Jimmy Rollins doesn't win the MVP tomorrow then I have to agree with the poster above who thinks the voters will be hesitant to give it to the Phillies two years in a row.

Todd, clearly I am of a biased opinion, but I'm curious, why on Earth do you think Holliday will win out over Rollins? Remember, Matt Holliday still hasn't touched home plate...

I believe that J-Roll should win the MVP award. His numbers were awesome, AVG .296 | HR 30 | RBI 94 | OBP .344 | SLG .531 which is not including 41 SBs and winning a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Award for his position. Rollins comes to play every day and when he boasts, he has backed it up. In my opinion, Rollins is definitely the heart and soul of this team. With a nod towards Utley, Howard, and Hamels without J-Roll, Philadelphia's season would have been horrible.

While I would love for J-Roll to win the MVP and I think he’s got a great chance, in all honesty Holiday should win it. In just about every

OPS
Holiday - 1.012, 3rd in NL 1.012
Rollins - .875, 23rd in NL and 5th amongst the Phillies (Utley, Howard, Burrell & Rowand)

Runs Created (which I think it the best overall offensive stat.)
Holliday – 142.2, 1st in NL
Rollins – 133.4 5th in NL

Runs created per 27 outs
Holliday – 8.51, 4th in NL
Rollins – 6.83, 19th in NL

Secondary Average
Holliday – .377, 15th in NL
Rollins - .352, 17th in NL

Defensively, Holliday led all left fielders in Zone Rating with .913, was second in Fielding Percentage with .990 and was 5th in range factor with 1.97. which pretty much debunks anyone who says he is a poor fielder at his position.

Rollins was 6th amongst NL short stops in Zone Rating with .824, was 3rd in Fielding Percentage with .985, and was 6th in Range Factor with 4.41.

Holliday was probably the best defensive left fielder in the NL last year, maybe Eric Burns had him beat but that is it. Rollins was maybe the 3rd but in reality the 4th best defensive short stop in the NL behind Troy Tulowitzki, Omar Vizquel and Khalil Greene.

Damn, I am a typo machine.

Lowell stays in Boston for $37.5 million, three years. I think that pretty much shows he never wanted to leave Boston. He was probably flirting with teams like the Phillies to try and raise his price.

B Dub, your just spouting off meaningless statistics. The award goes to most valuable player, not the player with better numbers in a few made up categories.

Todd,

I put this question to Scott Lauber, too.

Peter Gammons still is reporting that the Phillies were willing to go to four years with Mike Lowell, but Lowell decided to stay in Boston.

Do you think Pat Gillick just lies to the Philly beat reporters?

What is up with the disparity between what ESPN reports, and what Philly media reports?

Todd,

I should add that I think you guys have plenty of credibility.

But so, too, does Peter Gammons, when it comes to Red Sox-related matters, especially.

Bryan,

First, let me say you have a great name even though you spell it wrong. :-)

Next, I’m just trying to bring a different perspective about the MVP race and I’m giving statistics to back up my argument. Would you rather me just say that Holliday is better and should be the MVP with no back up? There are people here making comments as if it is a fact that Holliday is a poor defender based on nothing but opinion. I’m giving the actually numbers on why Holliday is a very good defender at his position.

I’m using stats like Runs Created, and RC27 to take out the elements of the game that are determined by other players. RBI are largely determined by how good the guys hitting in front of a player are. Runs scored are largely determined by how good the guys hitting after a player are. They are terrible statistics because they are so dependant on other players. Runs created are a very accurate measuring stick of offensive production. When applied to full teams they come very close to mirror the runs scored by a team 9 times out of 10. Runs Created per 27 outs tells you how many runs a team would score if you had a line up of 9 Jimmy Rollins or who ever is being measured.

When a line up of 9 Matt Hollidays would score 8.51 runs a game and a line up of 9 Jimmy Rollins would score 6.83 runs a game I think that is a pretty good indicator of who is more valuable. Heck Holliday had 2 more total bases than Rollins and he did that with less at bats.

My opinion is that the main objective of an offensive player is to create runs. In 2007, Holliday did that vastly better then Jimmy Rollins. Holliday is a better defender at his position then Rollins is at his, but Rollins fields a tougher position making defense a push in my book.

Jimmy is my favorite player in the league, but I still think Matt Holliday was more valuable then Jimmy Rollins this past season.

what record did holliday set oops!! none

So Gillick WAS lying to the Phillies beat writers.

What is up with that?

I'm sick of Rockie fans who want to list all the stats where Holliday led the league.
Stop telling me he came in first in RBIs. He didn't. He had fewer than Ryan Howard when the regularly scheduled games were over. He got to play that play-in game, knocked in two runs and goes past Howard.
I know that MLB officially counts those stats, but they shouldn't.

OMIGOD!

Gillick lied...

Why would anybody believe anything these guys have to say - Reid, Gillick, Billy King? It's their job. Funny, though, how Jimmymack took a hit last week for actually questioning things.

Gosh, I wonder if the Phils have been on the level about Eaton....

The offensive numbers are nice and there is no doubting the Holliday had a great year, but the award is the Most Valuable PLAYER. Fielding is part of playing. Holliday is at best an average left fielder. Rollins won a gold glove. In the field, it isn't even close.

There is one other thing that numbers can't measure and that is how Jimmy Rollins carried this team when Ryan Howard went down, Chase Utley went down, Pat Burrell was at the Mendoza line and the Phillies had J.D. Durbin and Jose Mesa pitching meaningful innings. Which team would have been better this year, the Rockies without Hollidfay or the Phillies without Rollins? It's not even close. J-Roll, the trophy is yours.

Gillick is "lying" because he doesn't want all his cards on the table when it comes to dealing with players and other teams. If he says all along that they are interested in Lowell, it just drives the price up for himself. Its not that ESPN and other network reporters have a better relationship with Gillick than the Philly media, they just have more sources of information, that's why they get paid more money to be on a national stage instead of writing for the local paper..

Pat Gillick said today the Phillies are not in the market for a third baseman. His word comes after an espn.com report said the Phillies plan to make a lucrative multiyear offer to free agent third baseman Mike Lowell.

“We’re concentrating on pitching right now,” Gillick said at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies introduced closer Brad Lidge. Phillies assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said earlier this week that the money the Phillies have left to spend has been earmarked for pitching.

Has that changed?

“No,” Gillick said. “Why would it change?”

Because the Phillies received an unexpected increase in payroll?

“No,” he said. “That hasn’t changed. We’re still concentrating on pitching. We prefer a starter and a bullpen piece. We’d prefer the starter.”

Liar, liar, pants on fire. Oh yeah, and Eaton's shoulder is OK.

Local reporting isn't about "more sources" when the GM just flat out lies to Todd.

It's been a long time since someone has put it all together - the hits, runs, power, RBI, baserunning, fielding (SS no less), leadership and a title - quite like this. It's one of the most complete performances in baseball history. I hope it gets recognized with this award. He deserves it, and I don't even think it should be as close as everyone says.

All these people all over Gillick? What is the deal with that? I have to agree with Tim here and say that Gillick needs to do what he needs to do to land players. While do people feel like they have the right to be in the know?

My guess is that the Phillies had a back-of-the-mind interest in Lowell and waiting to see how the market unfolded. They did not want to come out of the box talking $18MM per, but they got wind that he was going to sign with the Sox for $37.5 over 3 years and they thought, "perhaps we put a bid in to see if we can land him". They saw that he was about to sign for a little less than what they were willing to pay, so they put an offer out there to improve the team.

Gillick took the correct approach and the management put a legit offer out there to Lowell to bring him to Philly. People should be very happy that they are considering all options and they are looking to spend money to make the team better (after all - isn't that what everyone on these boards is complaining about - management keeping their wallets closed). Their offer to Lowell was a legit offer to land a new 3rd baseman.

Why doesn't everyone take a look at the strategy and sit back knowing that the Phillies appear to be willing to spend regardless of their stated strategy and stop being bitter about the fact that Gillick didn't check with you before he decided to call in an offer.

Jeez. I feel for Pat because he really cannot please anyone these days.

B-dub,
This is a different bryan, but I think the other one would agree as well that you should lay off the crack.

I agree with using runs created as a factor, but how do you think that holliday is a better OF than Rollins is a SS? Rollins plays gold glove caliber defense. And admittedly 90% of the time the OF gold gloves all go to CFs. But, holliday plays the MLB equivilant to little league RF or in other words his defensive position is hitter. The worst OF (except bonds in the day) plays LF. You are going to brag about Holliday's defensive prowess when in order to dot aht you would have to compare him to Manny, Burrell, Carlos Lee, Soriano.

And while you are looking at statistics, why don't you compare Hollidays road and home numbers. Better yet since both teams play in hitters parks, why not just do your RC27 with their road stats and tell us who is better.

I posted the home-away splits above -- have to go with Rollins when looking at the numbers.

I'm not saying that Holliday is the better player then Rollins. I would take Rollins before Holliday in a heartbeat, but Holliday is the MVP this season.

You take away home games to figure out who is better if you want, but you can't just throw out half a players games for a seasonal award.

Here some "clutch: numbers for you to chew on.

Close and Late
Holliday - .295 / .373 / .562 / OPS - .935,
Rollins – .255 / .318 / .490 / OPS - .808,

Scoring position 2 outs
Holliday - .319 / .430 / .528 / OPS- .958,
Rollins – .239 / .302 / .534 / OPS - .836,

Who you rather have up with the game on the line? Holliday is the MVP.