The Zo Zone

If you believe Bill James, the Phillies will need to pound the ball again next season to compete in the National League East.

But you probably already expected that, right?

The Bill James Handbook 2008 has pitcher projections for 2008. They're not exactly flawless -- James freely admits this -- but they're entertaining at the very least. So let's take a look at what James expects from three of the Phillies' projected five starters next season, plus their four top relief pitchers. I did not include Brett Myers because his projections come as a closer, which he will not be. I also did not include Kyle Kendrick because James does not include projections for inexperienced pitchers. As a comparison, I included their 2007 numbers, plus James' 2007 projections for them, so you can get a feel for how accurate these numbers actually are.

Again, these are more for entertainment purposes only.

Here they are:

Cole Hamels
2008 projected: 15-7, 3.33 ERA
2007 season: 15-5, 3.39 ERA
2007 projection: None.

Jamie Moyer
2008 projected: 11-10, 4.31 ERA
2007 season: 14-12, 5.01 ERA
2007 projection: 12-10, 4.10 ERA

Adam Eaton
2008 projected: 8-10, 4.89 ERA
2007 season: 10-10, 6.29 ERA
2007 projection: 6-7, 4.43 ERA

Brad Lidge
2008 projected: 65 G, 5-3, 24 saves, 3.44 ERA
2007 season: 66 G, 5-3, 19 saves, 3.36 ERA
2007 projection: 77 G, 5-3, 36 saves, 3.23 ERA

Tom Gordon
2008 projected: 66 G, 5-2, 3.30 ERA
2007 season: 44 G, 3-2, 6 saves, 4.73 ERA
2007 projection: 54 G, 4-3, 36 saves, 3.00 ERA

J.C. Romero
2008 projected: 75 G, 3-3, 4.25 ERA
2007 season: 74 G, 2-2, 1.92 ERA
2007 projection: 62 G, 2-3, 4.40 ERA

Ryan Madson
2008 projected: 40 G, 3-3, 4.50 ERA
2007 season: 38 G, 2-2, 3.05 ERA
2007 projection: 65 G, 6-7, 4.73 ERA

Merry Christmas!

I'm taking a quick break from the fesitivites to ask this question: How do the Phillies compare today with the other top teams in the National League East (apologies to the Nationals and Marlins, but I'm not picking either of you to contend next season in the NL East)? ESPN.com has a pretty good Hot Stove League page, which allows fans to see what teams have done this off-season. It seems to be fairly accurate -- update: they still had Johnny Estrada as an addition to the Mets even though he was non-tendered, and never counted Tom Glavine as a loss even though he signed with the Braves -- so let's take a look:

PHILLIES
Added: Brad Lidge, Geoff Jenkins, Chad Durbin, So Taguchi, Eric Bruntlett and Chris Snelling.
Lost: Aaron Rowand, Tadahito Iguchi, Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary.

METS
Added: Ryan Church, Brian Schneider and Brian Stokes.
Lost: Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, Lastings Milledge and Guillermo Mota.

BRAVES
Added: Glavine, Jair Jurrjens, Omar Infante, Will Ohman and Josh Anderson.
Lost: Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria, Willie Harris, Ron Mahay, Char Paronto, Oscar Villarreal and Jose Ascaino.

As much as Phillies fans have complained about their team not adding pitching, the Mets and Braves haven't exactly been setting the world on fire. I still think the Phillies are going to score a ton of runs, even without Rowand. In fact, here's my prediction: If Jenkins is healthy, he will put up better numbers than Rowand in 2008. But their starting pitching remains a serious question mark, meaning life might not be any easier for the Phillies next season. It might just as up and down an adventure.

I think it could be a two-team race again between the Phillies and Mets.

But, of course, there's still work to be done. The winter isn't over yet.

Enjoy your holidays ...

The Phillies found more depth and versatility for their outfield today.

They signed outfielder So Taguchi to a one-year contract worth a guaranteed $1.05 million, which includes a club option for 2009 and performance bonuses.

Taguchi hit .290 with three home runs and 30 RBIs last season for the St. Louis Cardinals. He also hit .406 as a pinch-hitter. In his six-year career with the Cardinals, he hit .283 overall and .337 with runners in scoring position.

Taguchi has played all three outfield positions and presumably would be Shane Victorino's replacement in center field should Victorino miss any significant period of time. Before Taguchi came aboard, it had been assumed Jayson Werth would play in center should Victorino need a rest.

Taguchi's arrival means the Phillies' outfield is set for opening day, assuming everybody stays healthy: Pat Burrell, Geoff Jenkins, Victorino, Werth and Taguchi. It also completes a five-man bench, should the Phillies open the season with 12 pitchers: Werth, Taguchi, Chris Coste, Eric Bruntlett and Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms, depending on who is playing third base.

This looks like it's it.

The Phillies introduced Geoff Jenkins and Chad Durbin at a news conference yesterday at Citizens Bank Park, and Pat Gillick said afterward they were "more unlikely than likely" to add another starting pitcher or third baseman before spring training. He said he remained hopeful they would add another relief pitcher, but otherwise the 40-man roster you see today is pretty close to the 40-man roster you'll see when pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater, Fla., in February.

Bob Ford said the Phillies need to do more.

They need to add another starting pitcher.

Gillick said they did not like what they saw Monday in Arizona, where they watched free agent righthander Kris Benson throw. They also are not interested in other injured pitchers like Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon and Matt Clement. They said weeks ago they have no interest in Freddy Garcia or Jon Lieber. Sidney Ponson? He could be had on a minor-league deal, but maybe the Phillies think he's not even worth that. Kyle Lohse? The Phillies aren't prepared to make a four- or five-year committment to a pitcher who's 11 games under .500 in his career. Can't say I blame them after making a three-year committment to Adam Eaton.

So this is it, or pretty close.

Can this team compete next season? They should because the National League is terribly inferior compared to the American League. But the Phillies also enter spring training hoping their rotation remains healthy and effective. Cole Hamels has never been able to stay healthy. Jamie Moyer had a 5.65 ERA from May 14 through the end of the season last year. Is he going to hit a wall? Eaton was terrible, and is his right shoulder actually healthy? Is Kyle Kendrick the real deal, or must he guard against a sophomore slump?

Not a lot of guarantees in there, huh?

It might be the same as last season, relying on an overpowering offense to make up for the sins of a mediocre pitching staff.

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Jenkins played his first 10 years in the majors with the Milwaukee Brewers, and it's well known in those parts that Jenkins bears a resemblance to perhaps the Greatest Quarterback Ever (at least in my mind) -- Brett Favre.

Don't believe me?

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Jim Salisbury tells a very cool story about a 30-second encounter with Harmon Killebrew when he was a kid, and how moments like that make people baseball fans forever.

The Phillies signed outfielder Geoff Jenkins to a two-year, $13 million contract with a mutual vesting option for 2010 that would increase the value to $20 million. Righthander Chad Durbin signed a one-year deal.

“Geoff gives us that lefthanded power bat in the outfield that we were looking for,” Phillies general manager Pat Gillick said in a statement. “He can play right or left field and will give Charlie some lineup options on an everyday basis.”

“Chad can either be a starter or reliever, so we feel he is a very good addition to our club,” Gillick said. “He pitched in both roles very effectively last season.”

The Phillies will have a couple free agents in hand before the weekend:

Geoff Jenkins.

Chad Durbin.

Sources said the two free agents have agreed to terms with the Phillies, with espn.com reporting that Jenkins has agreed to a two-year, $13 million deal with an option that could increase the value to $20 million. Everybody knows about Jenkins. The Phillies have been pursuing him for a while. Durbin's name just surfaced. He's a veteran righthanded pitcher, who split time between the bullpen and rotation last season with the Detroit Tigers. I'm guessing he's a swing guy that provides a little more depth in both spots for the Phillies. I can't see him cracking the rotation unless something happens, but it's another body to push Adam Eaton. I still think the Phillies will pursue Kris Benson, provided they like what they saw Monday in Arizona.

The sense I got yesterday is that the Phillies are ridiculously close to agreements with both players (espn.com says this morning Jenkins has agreed). Those announcements could come before the end of the week.

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Yesterday I joined Harry Mayes and Jamie Yannacone (aka The Fanatics) on Sports Radio 950. Listen to the podcast here.

The Bill James Handbook 2008 lists Range Factor for every position other than first base and catcher. Range Factor is the number of successful chances (putouts plus assists) times nine, divided by the number of defensive innings played. It's supposed to paint a more accurate portrayal of how good a fielder actually is. Like I wrote in a previous post, fielding percentage can be misleading.

The rankings are interesting.

Second base
Chase Utley (5.10) ranked ninth in baseball amongst everyday second basemen.

Third base
Wes Helms (2.53) did not play enough games at third base to qualify with everyday third basemen, but his range factor would have been 16th in the league. That's better than Miguel Cabrera (2.51), Mike Lowell (2.51) and Alex Rodriguez (2.42).

Greg Dobbs (2.61) would have ranked just ahead of Helms.

Abraham Nunez's range factor (3.27) -- if he had played enough games at third to qualify -- would have been the best in baseball. Better than Ryan Zimmerman (3.07), Scott Rolen (2.99) and Jose Bautista (2.92), who were in the top three.

Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins (4.41). The Gold Glove shortstop ranked 15th in baseball. That's behind Jason Bartlett (4.67), Yuniesky Betancourt (4.66), Tony Pena (4.56), David Eckstein (4.52) and others.

Left Field
Pat Burrell (1.61). He ranked last in baseball.
Michael Bourn (2.15). He would have ranked ninth in baseball.

Center Field
Aaron Rowand (2.64). The Gold Glove centerfielder ranked 20th in baseball.

Right Field
Shane Victorino (2.34). He ranked fourth in baseball.
Jayson Werth (2.34). In limited action, he had the same numbers as Victorino.

I'm not sure what to think about these numbers. Personally, I feel Rollins is much, much better than that. In fact, sometimes I see these rankings and think defensive statistics have a long way to go. I'm sure others disagree.

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Still see reports about the Phillies making a four-year offer to Kyle Lohse. I've heard there's nothing to it.

So the Phillies still need pitching, in case you hadn't heard.

Well, yesterday they watched Kris Benson throw off a mound in Phoenix. The Phillies had scouts in attendance, along with scouts from about eight other teams. They were all there to see if Benson's surgically repaired right shoulder is sound.

Confirmed: Benson's arm is still attached.

But we know little else, other than Benson's camp feels the Phillies' interest is serious. The Phillies remained mum yesterday when I asked their impressions of Benson. But if they liked what they saw, Benson seems to make sense for them because Benson's agent, Gregg Clifton, said Benson likely is going to sign a one-year contract.

That'd be right up the Phillies' alley. Benson is 68-73 with a 4.34 ERA in 195 career starts. Compare that to Kyle Lohse, who is 62-73 with a 4.84 ERA in 195 starts, and Carlos Silva, who is 47-45 with a 4.46 ERA in 125 starts. Lohse and Silva are both looking for multiyear contracts, which the Phillies want no part of. So if the Phillies feel Benson can stay healthy, they have somebody who is low risk, but comparable to the "two best" free agent pitchers on the market. And after signing Adam Eaton to a three-year, $24.5 million contract last winter, they should probably go low risk. That way when the time comes to offer contract extensions to Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels, they can't say, "We would, but we've got $80 million tied up in Eaton and Lohse/Silva."

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Need a last minute Christmas gift? I wrote Sunday about the Harry Kalas tribute CD, which I had a chance to listen to. The CD is going to be available at the Majestic Clubhouse Store at Citizens Bank Park beginning at noon Wednesday.

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Update: Heard there's nothing to the Kyle Lohse report that the Phillies are one of the final two teams he's choosing between. If the Phillies suddenly signed him to a four-year, $44 million contract it would seem to go against everything Pat Gillick has preached this off-season (i.e. hate long term deals unless it's for a superstar).

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The Phillies have invited 18 players to spring training as non-roster invitees. They are:

Pitchers: RHP Carlos Carrasco, RHP Ron Chiavacci, LHP Vic Darensbourg, RHP Gary Knotts, LHP Brian Mazone, LHP Josh Outman and LHP Joe Savery.
Catchers: Tuffy Gosewisch, Tim Gradoville and Lou Marson.
Infielders: 1B Mike Cervenek, SS Jason Donald, 3B Brennan King, INF Casey Smith and 1B/3B Andy Tracy.
Outfielders: Greg Golson, Valentino Pascucci and Brandon Watson.

I handled The Inquirer's Sunday baseball column this week, and took a chance to write about a tribute CD for Harry Kalas. I had a chance to listen to it last week, and I think Kalas fans should enjoy it. Cubs broadcaster Pat Hughes produced, wrote and narrated the CD.

It's currently available at baseballvoices.com.

I also combed through The Bill James Handbook 2008 and wrote about Citizens Bank Park as a home run park and how Charlie Manuel manages.

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The Phillies are pursuing two outfielders to help make up for Aaron Rowand's departure: free agent's Geoff Jenkins and Mike Cameron.

They hope to get one of the two.

Jenkins? Or Cameron? Cameron is one of the game's better defensive centerfielders. He has pop in his bat, and his offensive numbers should improve leaving Petco Park for Citizens Bank Park. His arrival also presumably would allow Shane Victorino to return to right field. But Jenkins seems more versatile for the Phillies' needs, in my humble opinion (which the Phillies don't listen to). He's a lefthanded hitter, which would allow him to platoon in right field with Jayson Werth. It also would allow him to get at-bats in left field whenever Pat Burrell is struggling or needs a rest.

I can't imagine both Jenkins and Cameron remaining on the market for long.

Stay tuned.

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The Phillies will watch free-agent righthander Kris Benson throw tomorrow in Arizona. Benson missed last season after surgery on his right shoulder.

The Phillies also are considering free-agent righthander Sidney Ponson, who might sign a minor-league contract. That's because Ponson hasn't been in the majors since May 12 last season after the Twins released him. Ponson is 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts in the Dominican winter league.

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Jim Salisbury writes about the winners and losers from the Mitchell report.

Free agent Geoff Jenkins could be close to signing a contract, and his decision is between the Phillies and Padres.

Jenkins struggled a bit last season, but he's a career .277 hitter with 212 home runs, 714 RBIs, a .347 on-base percentage and a .496 slugging percentage. His career numbers most closely resemble Torii Hunter, who just signed a five-year, $80 million contract with the Angels. Jenkins won't get anything close to that. He also won't get anything close to Aaron Rowand's five-year, $60 million contract with the Giants. So for a guy who puts up similar numbers to both Hunter and Rowand -- yes, I know they're centerfielders and he's a corner outfielder, but stay with me here -- he could help fill the hole in the lineup that Rowand's absence created.

Yes, Jenkins strikes out a lot. But so what? If you're a Moneyball believer, you know strikeouts are terribly overrated. Rowand struck out 119 times in 612 at-bats last season. Jenkins struck out 152 times in 617 at-bats in 2004 with the Brewers. Yes, that's 33 more strikeouts. But Jenkins also hit 27 homers with 93 RBIs.

The Phillies like Jenkins because he hits lefthanded, which means he could platoon in right field with Jayson Werth. He also can play left field when Pat Burrell is struggling or needs a rest.

It will be interesting to see which way Jenkins goes. Citizens Bank Park is a homer-friendly ballpark. The Bill James Handbook 2008 gave the Bank a 145 home run index ranking, which means it was 45 percent easier to hit a homer at the Bank than any other National League ballpark. That easily led the NL. The Bank also had a 103 runs index ranking, which means it was three percent easier to score runs at the Bank than other NL ballparks. Petco Field, on the other hand, had a 71 home run index ranking and a 75 runs index ranking, which ranked last in the league.

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Frank Fitzpatrick covered the Phillies for The Inquirer in 1993. He writes about that team, and how steroids have tainted it.

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By the way, did you notice the pitcher walking off the mound in the picture? Here's the game it came from.

Oh, how will baseball ever recover from the Mitchell report?

Yes, that's sarcasm.

Baseball is fine. It set attendance (79.5 million) and revenue ($6 billion) records this year, so I don't think anything in the Mitchell report is going to keep families away from ballparks in the future. If people were that upset about steroids, they wouldn't have packed ballparks this summer to see Barry Bonds. And I'm not aware of anybody who has said, "I refuse to watch baseball anymore because of the steroid problem." It's water cooler talk. Asterisk? No asterisk? Hall of Fame? Hall of Shame? I'm not saying the Mitchell report is not important. It is. Baseball needs to clean up. I'm just saying that at the end of the day people will continue to watch and buy tickets and buy merchandise.

But the report is interesting in parts. It's interesting to read how Roger Clemens and others got involved. It's interesting to see how players purchased and received their drugs. It's interesting to see how the Phillies were involved.

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Bob Ford doesn't think much of the Mitchell report. He writes, "In a very real way, releasing the names was inherently unfair because the net that was cast has such large holes in it." That's very true. Guys like Clemens just got hooked up with the wrong trainer.

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The Steroids-Era Starting Lineup.

No Sammy Sosa?

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Clemens tells kids to quit chewing tobacco.

The Mitchell Report is out.

No current Phillies were named.

Former Phillies were.

But none seem particularly surprising or crippling for the Phillies. I have skimmed the report, but it appears just two players named in the report – Lenny Dykstra and David Bell – have been linked to performance enhancing drugs while playing for the Phillies. They have been written about in the past, so this isn't exactly a shocking revelation. Other former Phillies named in the report – Jason Grimsley, Ryan Franklin, Benito Santiago, Todd Pratt, Gary Bennett Jr., Bobby Estalella and Paul Byrd – seem to have procured their performance enhancing drugs while playing for other teams.

More later.

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The Phillies avoided salary arbitration with outfielder Chris Snelling. He has agreed to a one-year, $450,000 contract with performance bonuses.

Phillies fan favorite Aaron Rowand has agreed to a five-year contact with the San Francisco Giants.

That makes Shane Victorino the Phillies' new centerfielder.

It also makes Jayson Werth the team's new rightfielder.

I'm not sure how much Rowand agreed to, but I understand the Phillies weren't prepared to go more than three years for Rowand. Rowand wanted five years and that's exactly what he got. He will be missed on the clubhouse and on the field.

Does anybody want to play third base for the Phillies?

Tadahito Iguchi rejected the Phillies' two-year offer to play third base for a one-year offer to play second base for the San Diego Padres. It's the second time this off-season the Phillies have made the better offer for a third baseman, and the second time they have come up short. The Phillies last month offered Mike Lowell a four-year, $48 million contract, but he chose a three-year, $37.5 million contract to remain with the Boston Red Sox.

So now what?

Not sure. The Phillies could stick with Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs. Or they could continue to search for some sort of upgrade. Free agent Pedro Feliz remains available, but I'm not sure how much interest the Phillies have in him. And let me just stop the suggestions right here: Pat Burrell can't play third base. I know he played there in college, but there's a reason why they moved him from third to first to left early in his career. Scott Rolen? He's on the record saying he'd never waive his no-trade clause to return to the Phillies.

It appears their options are limited.

Meanwhile, they continue to search for pitching help.

Fielding ability is tough to quantify.

Fielding percentage can be misleading. An infielder might catch every ball hit to him, but might have terrible range -- somebody once said Todd Zeile had the range of a cocktail napkin, ifyouknowwhatimsayin' -- which means more balls roll past him than perhaps another infielder with a slightly worse fielding percentage. Outfield assists don't always mean the outfielder has a strong arm. One outfielder might have more assists than another outfielder with a better arm because more teams simply run on him.

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2008 ranked every big-league team's fielding ability in 2007 based on its Plus/Minus System. The Plus/Minus System is based on videotape reviews with video scouts who record every batted ball into a computer, allowing for analysis of defense. John Dewan's Plus/Minus System ranked all thirty major league teams as follows:

Team 2007
Toronto Blue Jays +92
New York Mets +73
Atlanta Braves +68
Kansas City Royals +66
Arizona Diamondbacks +54
Detroit Tigers +45
Chicago Cubs +36
St. Louis Cardinals +36
Oakland Athletics +25
San Diego Padres +24
Philadelphia Phillies +19
San Francisco Giants +16
Cleveland Indians + 8
Washington Nationals + 4
Texas Rangers - 2
Milwaukee Brewers - 2
Colorado Rockies - 3
Minnesota Twins - 6
Los Angeles Angels -12
Boston Red Sox -14
Baltimore Orioles -14
Los Angeles Dodgers -15
New York Yankees -37
Seattle Mariners -49
Pittsburgh Pirates -50
Houston Astros -51
Cincinnati Reds -59
Chicago White Sox -76
Florida Marlins -88
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -107

According to the book, "By tracking every play of every major league game, the Video Scouts record detailed information on each play, such as the location of each batted ball, the speed, the type of hit, etc. A player gets credit (a “plus” number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season; he loses credit (a “minus” number) if he misses a play that at least one other player made. Team plus/minus totals are calculated and ranked by cumulative scores at middle infield, corner infield and outfield, along with rankings on double play efficiency, skill in handling bunts, and throwing.

"While the Colorado Rockies set the major league record this year with a .989 team fielding percentage, author John Dewan believes that, “Fielding percentage is, in essence, a subset of plus/minus. Making all the plays that you’re supposed to make is a tremendous asset. But the No.1 underlying skill needed for great defense is great speed.”

I'm still not completely sold on statistics like Zone Rating, etc., but they're interesting to talk about.

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Jim Salisbury's Sunday baseball column looks at how Detroit Tigers owner Mike Illitch told Dave Dombrowski to break the bank and farm system to bring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers.

I'm sure that'll provide plenty of fodder here.

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Check out Salisbury's Extra Bases, which has some good Phillies-related nuggets.

In years past, players like Kevin Millwood and Placido Polanco surprised the Phillies when they accepted salary arbitration.

There were no surprises this year.

Aaron Rowand declined salary arbitration with the Phillies yesterday, which means he and his agent, Craig Landis, feel they have enough solid offers on the table that they have no need for a one-year contract. If Rowand had accepted, he would have been signed with the Phillies for 2008. But because he declined, if he signs elsewhere, the Phillies will receive two top draft picks for him: a first- or second-round pick, and a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds.

But nobody expected Rowand to accept.

And unless something drastic happens it sounds like Rowand is headed elsewhere, if you believe what Pat Gillick and Landis said this week at the winter meetings in Nashville -- calling Rowand's return to Philadelphia a "long shot."

Back from Nashville.

Finally.

The winter meetings are a loooooong four days, especially when nothing is happening. And nothing happened with the Phillies this week at the gi-normous Gaylord Opryland Hotel. They had hoped to find pitching, which Charlie Manuel desperately wants, but they came up empty -- except for a pair of pitchers they selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

That's not nearly enough to get people excited, or ease Manuel's concerns about another season of mixing and matching and juggling struggling and injured pitchers.

"We learned last year that six [starters] is not enough," assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle said. "It's not nearly enough. We have to create depth and inventory to protect ourselves."

The Phillies hope lefthander Travis Blackley from San Francisco's organization can compete for a spot in the rotation. If not there, he could wind up in the bullpen. Righthander Lincoln Holdzcom from Boston's organization seems like a long shot.

But here's an interesting quote in Jim Salisbury's column. It's from Pat Gillick: "I don't think we'll add a [pitcher], a fifth guy or whatever, between now and spring training."

Gulp.

Granted, this is coming from Gillick, who regularly runs end arounds with the local media. The Phillies are going to see Kris Benson pitch Dec. 17 in Arizona, and if he throws well the Phillies are expected to make a run at him. So there is hope out there, albeit not exactly Johan Santana-type hope. But if Gillick can't find another starter before spring training, the Phillies certainly are vulnerable. Gillick has said reports about Adam Eaton's right shoulder are good, but one Phillies person said this week those reports means absolutely nothing once spring training rolls around (i.e. let's see him prove it on the mound). Jamie Moyer had a 5.65 ERA from May 14 through the rest of the season. He's obviously a year older, so can he improve upon that? Kyle Kendrick is unproven. Cole Hamels hasn't shown the ability to pitch an entire season without getting hurt. Brett Myers returns to the rotation after spending most of last season in the bullpen or hurt.

Question marks just about everywhere, and that's if everybody stays healthy.

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Craig Landis, who is Aaron Rowand's agent, said Andruw Jones' deal changes nothing with the Phillies.

Are the Phillies and Rowand that far apart?

"Yeah," Landis said.

Gillick said Wednesday that Rowand's return was a long shot. Landis agreed. Rowand is seeking a five-year contract, while the Phillies seem willing to overpay for a three-year deal.

"I'm not ruling it totally out, but I would have to agree that it's a long shot," Landis said.

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The agent for Tadahito Iguchi, Rocky Hall, said he almost certainly would not secure a waiver from the commissioner's office that would allow the Phillies to re-sign Iguchi before May 15. But he still hasn't ruled out Iguchi's return to the Phillies.

Hall said he thought the Phillies and Iguchi were about "80 percent near an agreement," but they can't finalize anything because of the May 15 rule. Of course, Iguchi could sign a minor-league contract. Hall said Iguchi would not do that, but with options apparently few and far between he could reconsider.

Iguchi also could sign with another team and the Phillies could acquire him in a trade retroactive to May 15.

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The Florida Marlins have talked with the Phillies about acquiring Wes Helms. A trade is a possibility, but nothing is imminent. The Phillies do not have interest in Detroit Tigers third baseman Brandon Inge, who is owed $19.1 million over the next three years.

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The Phillies have made a minor-league contract offer to free agent lefthander Glendon Rusch, but San Diego, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Houston reportedly also are in the hunt.

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It's probably not much consolation to Phillies fans, but the winter meetings were slow for almost everybody, writes ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

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Phillies VP for public relations Larry "The Baron" Shenk received a Lifetime Achievement Award from the Philadelphi Chapter of the Public Relations Society of America.

The Phillies selected lefthander Travis Blackley from the San Francisco Giants’ organization and righthander Lincoln Holdzkom from the Boston Red Sox’s organization in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft.

The Phillies think Blackley could compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, while Holdzkom is more of a long shot to make the team. To remain with the Phillies, Blackley and Holdzkom need to be on the Phillies’ 25-man roster for the entire season, or be offered back to their former teams.

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By the way, I already have been e-mailed a few times about this Erik Bedard for Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick and two prospects rumor reported elsewhere. It's completely bogus. The Phillies and Orioles haven't even had discussions about Bedard, so I'm not sure where this story came from.

If the Phillies trade Victorino, who is going to play centerfield? Of course, that's not the main reason why this trade would not happen, but it's something to think about.

The Phillies still need pitching.

They just can't find any, unless you want to grossly overpay for some mediocre pitcher who's going to have Phillies fans frustrated and angry come June.

"Same old, same old," manager Charlie Manuel said yesterday. "Just talk."

"It's been a frustrating few days," said Mike Arbuckle, the team's assistant general manager. "We've done a lot of talking with a lot of people and right now we're just kind of treading water."

The Phillies made another offer yesterday to Japanese righthander Hiroki Kuroda, which was believed to be for three years and about $30 million. But the Phils and Kuroda were so far apart that general manager Pat Gillick said they were out of the Kuroda sweepstakes.

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The Phillies continued to speak with Rocky Hall, the agent for Tadahito Iguchi.

They met once in the morning, with the Phillies making a one-year offer that included an option for a second year. They spoke again later in the afternoon, and the Phillies upped their offer. The sides appear to be closer, but the Phillies aren't optimistic that they can make a deal because Iguchi would need a baseball rule to be waived to allow him to re-sign with the Phillies.

Because the Phillies released Iguchi after the season, as required in his contract, they cannot sign him to a major-league contract until May 15. Hall said he had gone to the commissioner's office to seek a waiver and he hopes to have an answer within two days to a week. However, a baseball official said last night that the commissioner's office was not aware of Hall's request.

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The Phillies kicked around third baseman Brandon Inge's name yesterday. Inge is available after the Detroit Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins. But Inge is owed $19.1 million over the next three seasons, which could dampen any exploration of a deal.

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The Phils continue to talk with Aaron Rowand's agent, Carl Landis, but Gillick acknowledged that a deal is unlikely. "Yeah, I'd say it's a long shot," he said.

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Today is the Rule 5 Draft.

More on that later.

The Phillies want Tadahito Iguchi at third base next season.

Iguchi wants to be at third base ... for the most part.

But will it happen? In conversations with two baseball officials last night, it sounds more unlikely than likely. Because the Phillies released Iguchi after the season -- it was required in his contract after they could not sign him to an extension before Nov. 15 -- they can't bring back Iguchi until May. And Iguchi most likely won't rejoin the Phillies if he has to sit out the first month of the season.

So that's the trick, isn't it?

Iguchi's agent, Rocky Hall, would need to secure a waiver from MLB. It has happened in the past, but it's no slam dunk.

Far from it.

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News update: The Phillies have released RHP Julio Mateo.

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The Phillies will meet with Ryan Howard's agent, Casey Close, this week, although Pat Gillick said a contract extension for Howard was not an immediate concern. Howard is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time and cannot become a free agent until after the 2011 season, when he will turn 32.

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Agent Gregg Clifton has informed the Phillies that free-agent righthander Kris Benson will be throwing on Dec. 17 in Arizona. The Phils would like to see Benson throw to ensure that his surgically repaired right shoulder is healthy.

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Good news: the Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis into the American League, Jim Salisbury writes.

Bad news: the Phillies have done nothing to upgrade their pitching staff.

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Teams continued to pursue Japanese free-agent pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. The Phillies have an offer on the table for Kuroda, but he seems to prefer a West Coast club. Sources say Kuroda will be in the United States next week and visit Phoenix (Diamondbacks), Seattle (Mariners) and Los Angeles (Dodgers).

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Bugs & Cranks ranks the top 10 games from 2007.

-- Todd Zolecki

Pat Gillick just told reporters at the Opryland Hotel that they might have an opportunity to bring back Tadahito Iguchi next season -- and to play third base.

More to come later.

Pat Gillick said he is optimistic.

But that doesn't mean he's excited.

He sounded less than thrilled yesterday talking to reporters about the market for pitching (or maybe he was just less than thrilled because he had to speak with us). The Phillies continue to look for starting pitching and bullpen help, but so far have come up empty. But he said he is hopeful the Phillies can make a move before the winter meetings end Thursday afternoon at the Opryland Hotel in Nashville.

As a reporter, I would love that.

Kris Benson anybody?

The Phillies plan to watch him throw later this month. Organizationally, the Phillies think Benson is best suited to bounce back from his right shoulder surgery, when compared to other injured pitchers like Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber.

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FYI -- Type "Kris Benson" into Google Images and 90 percent of the pictures are of his wife, Anna Benson.

Why?

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Jim Salisbury writes why Aaron Rowand seems unlikely to return to the Phillies next season. That might change only if Rowand's agent backs off his demand for a five-year deal. If Rowand would take a three-year deal, the Phillies would go hard after him.

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The triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs recently named their pig mascot PorkChop. But they just renamed it Ferrous.

Click here to find out why.