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Phillies: Looking Ahead to 2008

phillies%20tree.jpgMerry Christmas!

I'm taking a quick break from the fesitivites to ask this question: How do the Phillies compare today with the other top teams in the National League East (apologies to the Nationals and Marlins, but I'm not picking either of you to contend next season in the NL East)? ESPN.com has a pretty good Hot Stove League page, which allows fans to see what teams have done this off-season. It seems to be fairly accurate -- update: they still had Johnny Estrada as an addition to the Mets even though he was non-tendered, and never counted Tom Glavine as a loss even though he signed with the Braves -- so let's take a look:

PHILLIES
Added: Brad Lidge, Geoff Jenkins, Chad Durbin, So Taguchi, Eric Bruntlett and Chris Snelling.
Lost: Aaron Rowand, Tadahito Iguchi, Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary.

METS
Added: Ryan Church, Brian Schneider and Brian Stokes.
Lost: Tom Glavine, Paul Lo Duca, Lastings Milledge and Guillermo Mota.

BRAVES
Added: Glavine, Jair Jurrjens, Omar Infante, Will Ohman and Josh Anderson.
Lost: Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria, Willie Harris, Ron Mahay, Char Paronto, Oscar Villarreal and Jose Ascaino.

As much as Phillies fans have complained about their team not adding pitching, the Mets and Braves haven't exactly been setting the world on fire. I still think the Phillies are going to score a ton of runs, even without Rowand. In fact, here's my prediction: If Jenkins is healthy, he will put up better numbers than Rowand in 2008. But their starting pitching remains a serious question mark, meaning life might not be any easier for the Phillies next season. It might just as up and down an adventure.

I think it could be a two-team race again between the Phillies and Mets.

But, of course, there's still work to be done. The winter isn't over yet.

Enjoy your holidays ...

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Comments (134)

Cory:

Mele Kalikimaka Zo

jrquixote:

Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday season, Todd and fellow bloggers.

While Todd's statement that the Mets and Braves haven't gone out of their way to improve is true, the Phillies simply need to focus upon improving themselves in every way they can. Otherwise you find yourself playing down to your competition and maybe being lulled to sleep. The Phils won the division by one game on the last day of the season. I'll bet this year will be close also. Who get's the competitive advantage? The team with the most talent, best coaching, or something else?

Hope everyone has a happy holiday season! Peace.

Mike D.:

I agree with your assessment Zo, especially in regards to Jenkins, but for once it would be nice if we were head and shoulders above the other teams in our division as well as league wide. This whole we should be good enough to contend for the division crap, just isn't good enough.

james szucs:

chase utely,(mvp) must i say more.

james szucs:

chase utely,(mvp) must i say more.

james szucs:

i am sorry, chase utley(mvp) neeed i say more.

Joe B:

The Mets actually let Estrada go recently, so he's not an addition anymore.

cem karaman:

METS SUCK !!!!!!!!

Johnny P:

I think it's not even going to be close. I say the Phils win the division hands down. I say they win it by about 8 games. They believe they're good now. When Rollins said what he said last year I think most players weren't so sure but now I think they expect to win which is no small thing. They're younger than the Mets and something very ugly happened to the Mets last year. I'm not so sure they bounce back so easily. I think there's some doubt in their minds. More doubt than the Phils experienced last year. Holy molly I sound like DR. Phil.
How about this? Do you guys think Victorino can stay healthy all year and can hit enough to be basically your everyday center fielder? Would you make him trade bait? I love the way the guy plays and I really love his speed but other teams would love the same things about him. Plus he's young. If another centerfielder where available I'd at least listen to offers for him in some kind of package deal (maybe with Kendrick) for a very good reliever or a starter like Bedard of the Orioles. The trouble with Victorino is he doesn't hit for a high enough average and he doesn't have that much pop so can he play every day? He's kinda like a young So Taguchi. Even though I really like the guy's personality and speed and arm I'd deal him and be happy with an older veteran like Loften or even a Scott Podosek platooning in center with Werth or Toguchi. I don't know if one of those guys is available or if other teams value Victorino like we do but another good reliever would be sweet.

Bob:

Love the Jenkins/Rowand prediction. Rowand was a great addition to this team, but for what he was able to get on the open market, it wouldn't have been prudent to resign him. Plus I don't think he'll match this year's numbers again, especially in a bigger park. Jenkins doesn't even have to put up better numbers for it to be the right move. If the platoon of Jenkins and Werth put up better numbers it was a great move. Little concerned about the lack of speed on the bench. Who do we use as a pinch runner in late game situations (can Bruntlett or Taguchi hold a candle to Bourn?)

Mike from Bala:

Running in late innings? What did Bourn ever do? We'd bring him in for Burrell and then he'd stand on first base or get picked off. I think a late inning runner is nice, but they've got to be aggressive like Jimmy Rollins.

Jim Ryan:

Johnny P.--What was in your holiday eggnog? Victorino is about to have a breakout year with 60 steals or more. That makes almost every walk, single, hbp, a de facto double. And trade him for Lofton, whom the Phillies once had? Try to get your head clear by new Year's.

You put if healthy Jenkins will produce better numbers than Rowand...it's Rowand that should be "if healthy".

rob fida:

I agree. I love the jenkins/tuguchi signings. Tuguchi can run and beat out late inning singles. I've seen him do it in St. Louis. My only concerns besides pitching is this: which Pat Burrell will show up this year and can Victorino stay healthy. I had a similar injury as him(torn calf muscle) a year ago. I run five times a week and I'd be lying if I said it didn't tweak from time to time. But this is the important part-it tweaks just enough when you run to keep you from going balls out. Nothing's scarier than feeling that loud pop in your leg then falling down in a lump. That being said, I like the Phils chances. And remember, Gillick's best moves are always in-season. Go Phils!!

Twitchell:

Why is it always a comparison thing in this town? If the the Phillies compare favorably to the Mets and Braves, but both teams stink, then what's the point? I would like to see the Phillies be THE TEAM TO BEAT IN THE NL while the opportunity is available to them. Allow me to remind you, they won the division last year. And as NL East Champ, they were immediately exposed and eliminated from the playoffs. The Phillies are 2 impact pitchers and 1 impact hitter away from serious contention FOR A WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP. And that should be the objective, not being better than mediocre divisional rivals. Been there, done that.

kfil:

Jenkins/ Werth will produce better than Rowand, they will face favorable match-ups 80-90% of the time. Plus you always have a bench guy that is fresh for pinch hitting. I like Vic a lot, but with the signing of So Taguchi it opens the door to trade Vic. He may have a breakout year, but I do not think so, he still needs to get on base. I hope other teams feel that way also. Packaging him with Kendrick and others for a #1/2 would be great. The Pen is pretty strong, but another late inning reliever would be great. Still ultimately, the Phils really need that Starter to come through, the big question is where is he going to come from? (Trade, 1 of the 5 guys vying for the 5th spot, a minor league player, who knows). Gillick has a done a good job this offseason, he made moves for supporting roles of the solid core we have, when there is really nothing out there. Additionally, he kept all of the draft picks! He made the Phil's the favorite to win the NL East, but like others have pointed out, it would be nice to be favored in the NL for once. Mets will be strong, but will not get it done, I am worried about the Braves, they always have good pitching!
Gillick made the move for a CF to replace Vic, which now leaves the door open for the trade that puts them over the top. If you look at all of the trades; teams want MLB ready, young players, and some prospects. Gillick would not do it if it did not make the team better, now he has pieces that he can move younger guys to pick up that #1/2, just wait!!!

Twitchell:

I think to many phans think the Phillies signed Geoff Jenkins from 2003-05. This Jenkins is not the same player. He is useless versus lefties (.215 BA in '07), which hurts your depth and roster flexibility. And versus righties, I think people are allowing the HR totals to fool them. While 18 HRs versus righties in 355 ABs is okay, not great, the rest of his performance is horrible. .262 BA, 50 RBI, .326 OBP and .807 OPS. These numbers are from his strong side! Not to ruffle any feathers, but Jenkins is barely a platoon option based on those numbers. If you consider the financial committment, this signing is ridiculous.

Realistic Observer:

Twitchell, the Phillies won the division last year despite an unusually high number of serious injuries. Just by being healthier they should be a 90-plus win team. Additionally, they have made a couple very good off-season acquisitions/moves while the Mets and Braves have done little. And the Phillies aren't comparing favorably to the Mets and Braves because those teams "stink." Nobody would say the Mets and the Braves "stink." They both will probably be good ball clubs, but not as good as the Phillies in my opinion. Nothing was "exposed" about the Phillies in the playoffs. They lost because 3 of their best hitters, (Utley, Howard and Rowand) slumped horribly through the 3 games. Those guys are a strength for this team, not a weakness. But the losses in games 1 and 3 were squarely on the offense and those 3 guys (4-2 and 2-1 losses are not the fault of the pitching staff). Only in game 2 did the pitching struggle and that was mainly the result of one two-out, two-strike mistake from Lohse to K-Mat. If the Rockies had not been red hot when we faced them, and had our offense been clicking as usual, truth is the Phillies were probably the better team.

Realistic Observer:

Uh, last time I checked this is the same Geoff Jenkins as from 2003-2005. Just because his numbers dipped some last year doesn't mean he suddenly has no value or that he might not post better numbers this year, particularly in a hitter-friendly park. And if he hits about .270 with 18-20 homers and 50-60 RBIs in a platoon with Werth, his signing will be a success and it will essentially have more than replaced Rowand's production (since you have to assume Werth will add 5-10 HR's and 30-40 RBI's to that, while batting about the same or better average-wise in the platoon).

Anonymous:

He is useless versus lefties (.215 BA in '07), which hurts your depth and roster flexibilit... Not to ruffle any feathers, but Jenkins is barely a platoon option based on those numbers.

Seeing as how the Phillies signed Jenkins to be... wait for it... part of a platoon - what's your point?

If you consider the financial committment, this signing is ridiculous.

Yes, the Phillies will be sunk by that ridiculous two-year financial commitment. Idiot.

RG:

I think the Phils best chance to bolster their pitching staff will come in season. Hopefully, some of their minor league guys make the leap and can a) either contribute ala Kendrick, or b) become more valubale as trading chips.

Right now, they cannot realistically obtain a top tier starter without affecting the core of their roster. However, if Carrasco or Savery makes huge strides in the minors this year, they may have the chips to make a run at a top pitcher on a losing team by the deadline. Right now, I'd like to see them add another reliever or two (Affeldt, Otsuka), and maybe a low end starter for depth, like Towers.

Jose Kuhn:

THe reality is that the 1983 and 1980 Phillies only had 2 real staring pitchers all year and had to depend on call-ups to plug holes of injuries and staff ineptness.

As long as Myers and Hamels stay health we are fine. There is a pool of 4 starters who might be call-ups this year. and then there is always the July trading deadline. This year it was Loshe...

And to those who feel Jenkins will not fill Aaron Rowand numbers remember he did not exactly set the AL/NL on fire in 2005 and 2006 and he is moving to a pitchers park.

joe schmoe:

The phillies should just trade burrell and eaton for pujols and move pujols to left. then trade kendrick and a couple of prospects for santana. then they'll be the team to beat in the NL.

The phillies should trade eaton for a pitching machine and some bushels of baseballs and trade greg dobbs straight up for johan santana and devin hester.

clinton, nj:

Ahhh the Philly faithful lol Many good points as usual, and a few not so good posts. I think Jose Kuhn is right on with his assumption. And dont forget, if the Phils actually can post a winning April for a change, that will be a huge boost for this team. I cant recall a good start to the season, and the last 4-5 years they are right there at the end despite a piss poor start. With the team they have right now, it will come down to health, and starting good. If they accomplish those two, they will be very good!!

Lar:

As a fan, I hope the Phillies can continue their fiscal responsibility and adhere to their self-imposed budget.

Nothing upsets a true Phillies fan more than excessive spending on free agents.

I don't know how Yankee and Red Sox fans can stand it??

Go Phillies! Don't let us down.

BB:

"My only concerns besides pitching is this: which Pat Burrell will show up this year" - GM Carson...

The Pat Burrell who is in contract year, that's who!! He duplicates his rookie year or better this year. Throw out the last 4 years and reflect on the first one. Who doesn't perform well in the last year of a contract?... He will be one of the main reason why the Phillies win the division with a 5-10 game gap and win thier first playoff series since '93. Then of course he will revert to his old self on another team that makes the mistake of signing him to a lucrative 6yr deal!

I think the Phillies do well this year. I was a little skeptical before I read your report Todd. Pitching is a major issue in the entire National League East (the Braves may have the upper hand over all of the teams, but they don't have any offense other than McCann, Jones, and Texera and have ZERO spead).

This is how the division will shake down:

Phillies
Braves
Mets
My Jobs softball team
Nationals
Marlins

Anonymous:

Pat Burrell has only had one truly bad season in his entire career: 2003. He has hit very well for each and every one of the last three seasons. He doesn't need a "contract year" performance to be good. A normal Pat Burrell season is an excellent season. The fact that Phillies fans can't see this just means that they're blind.

Steve D:

The Phils are very weak at third base. Nunez is gone and that leaves Helms and Dobbs who are good to give the opposition an extra out or two in the field every other game or so. Dobbs broke in originally in the minors as a first baseman and Helms failed with the Braves and Brewers as an everyday third baseman. Bruntlett has rarely ever played third base in his utility role with the Astros so he will be of no help. While the Mets and Braves have All-Stars at the hot corner waving stop signs, the Phils have the choice of either of two street lights stuck on green standing there.

s:

The key to the starting pitching in my opinion is Kendrick. If last year wasn't a fluke, then we have Hamels and Myers as one of the better 1/2 combinations in the NL and two predictable, fairly solid pitchers in the 3 and 4 spots (Kendrick, Moyer). That fifth spot can be filled a variety of ways, perhaps with Outman or Carrasco coming up later in the year. I really expect 2 pitchers to be up by 2009: one to replace Moyer and one to fill that fifth spot. Pitching is hard to predict ... I keep thinking Gavin Floyd. We won't know what we have until they're up. But, by the same token, a young pitcher may show up big enough in spring training to take that fifth spot and do a respectable job. Assuming they can get 2 good ones by 2009 our rotation suddenly looks a whole lot better without spending huge money on some aging dead arm.

The big caveat here is that Hamels, Myers, and at least one of Kendrick and Moyer stay healthy through the 2008 season.

Steve D - I'm with you on Nunez. If we're keeping third as is and not upgrading, I'd be tempted to bring him back for his defense.

s:

The Padres signed Prior to a one year deal. I might have taken a shot at him for one year even with his injury history.

johnnysanz:

Prior for one year, 1mil... I think San Diego was his only choice.

Vetro:

I agree with Mike from Bala about Victorino and BB about Burrell. Go Phils in '08.

clinton, nj:

Hey Diesel, what the hell has NY done lately??? Gimme some of what your smoking! The Yanks have done nothing with choke-rod on the team, and guess what, your stuck with his selfish ass. The Giants are a joke. They are the worst 10-5 team ever. Eli is never winning anything, sorry, but im sure you know that already. Maybe the giants will get a home playoff game this year and get SHUTOUT AGAIN like they did in 2005 against Carolina!!!! lol what a joke!! And who cares about hockey right now!

RamirS:

We wish we could win a pennant
We Wish we could win a pennant
We Wish we could win a pennant
But we can't cause we're cheap

Budget1:

2008 Frugality Awards

...and the award goes to....the Philadelphia Phillies for signing players that cost very little money. Sorry you finished in 3rd place, maybe next year when.....you cut the budget again.

Aristotle:

There are only three things for certain:

Death, taxes, and the Phillies being cheap.

progressive1:

Phillies saving money
One Championship in 130 years
Destiny unknown

original Hai Ku

by

Progressive1

Phills enter 2008 with 3 potential problems. Neither Helms or Dobbs are decent enough in the field. This will cost the Phills afew games. The rotation after Hammells and Bret is a question. Kendrick was a god-send last year but will he continue this? Moyer will be 45 Y.O. next year, but he pitched 2 strong games at the end of last yearat a crucial time. The 5th spot is up in the air. If anyone fulters the Phills have some potential answers i.e. Eaton, Chad Durbin Carasco, Outman Madson Mathieson and Happ. I love the Lidge deal particularly if they can resign him. Of all the potential starters listed I like Madsons potential the most to be a quality starter. I know he did not fare well i previous chances but Ryan was a very good starter in the minors and has the arm to be a winning starter. They would have to get abullpen replacement (Dotel).The 3rd problem our lineup is too lefthanded and every team willbring in leftties to face us, this will cutback the production of Utley and Howard.

Phills have 3 questionmarks. 3B defesively Helms and Dobbs will cost them.The starters after Cole and Brett. Kendrick was a godsend last yr. but will he continue. Moyer will be 45 next yr. but he did pitch 2 strong games at crucial timea at the end o 07 the 5th spot i up for grabs but we have some potential answers i.e. a new Eaton, C. Durbin Carasco, Outman, Madson, Mathieson and Happ. Of these I like Ryans potential the most. He was avery good starter in the minors and ha the arm to be a succesful starter. We wold need to replace hi in the pen (Dotel). Lastly our lineup is too lefthanded and Utley and Howard will be facing lefties and this will reduce their production to a degree.

GoPhils:

Twitchell _ In what baseball world do a .262 BA, 50 RBI, .326 OBP and .807 OPS in 355 at bats qualify as "horrible?" In a down year, Jenkins was more than adequate against lefties. I think the Werth/Jenkins platoon will be a strength.

Steve D _ Wes Helms is a better defensive 3rd baseman than Chipper Jones. And Greg Dobbs plays defense about as well as Chipper (which is to say not very well). There are some legitimate reasons to worry about the Braves this year. Chipper "waving stop signs" ain't one of them.

RamirS & others _ The most tired rite of the hot stove season is the bellyaching about the Phillies being cheap. The two teams that played in the NLCS last year each spent more than $35 million less on payroll than the Phillies. The Phils offered more money this off season to Mike Lowell than the Red Sox did & more money to Randy Wolf than the Padres did. Spending on big league players is not the problem.

Finally, my prediction for '08 _ Barring injuries, the much-vilified, little-loved Adam Eaton will be a more effective starter than Kyle Kendrick.



RamirS:

Good tidings we bring, to you and your kin.

We Wish we could win a pennant

But we can't cause we're cheap!

bryan:

can at least one of the whiners on the board answer this question for me? Who outside the Red Sox doesn't have at least 3 questions/3 things that need to break right for them to win and be competitive?

Every team has questions..which brings me to point 2.

STop complaining about the phils being cheap or whatever, unless you have a legit choice of a guy they should have come after. And remember neither Elsbury plus prospects or Elsbury plus prospects was good enough for the Sox to add Santana.

In my opinion on paper the phillies had the 2nd best offseason of any team planning on completing for a playoff spot. (Arizona having the best)

Scorekeeper:

Here's the thing on Prior: He never would have come here. He signed for one year in a very pitcher-friendly park, in hopes of putting up some numbers that will make him more attractive stats-wise for his next contract.

Remember Burrell in 2006? Everyone said how horrible he was, how much of an albatross he was. He still put up 95 RBI. In a bad year. I hope his 2008 is that bad.

Rowand is amazing, but he won't be for long.

Victorino has to stay in center. Taguchi is a nice insurance policy, not the key to trading Vic.

The Mets and Braves have HoF-caliber third sackers. The Phils don't. But there are three other infield positions, and the Phils have potential HoF-ers at all three of them. Who else does?

The rotation is better with the addition of Myers. The pen is better with the subtraction of AlfonMesa and the return of Romero and Mad Dog Madson (has everyone forgotten about him?). The addition of Lidge ensures a legitimate closer fills that role.

This is a pretty good ball club, and the reason it is this good is because Pat Gillick doesn't listen to guys like us. Ed Wade? Well, he did.


Mighty 55:

Lar posted:

"The Pat Burrell who is in contract year, that's who!! He duplicates his rookie year or better this year. Throw out the last 4 years and reflect on the first one. Who doesn't perform well in the last year of a contract?"

Answer: Andruw Jones last year. Yes, he hit 26 homers and 94 RBI's, but look at the .222 batting average... It's not a given that Burrell will produce just cause it's a contract year. But I'm pulling for him.

TonyO:

Ed Waaaaaaaaaaddddddddeeeee! Are you madddddd!

Ed Wade was fired after Phillies attendance dropped by 600,000 during the 2005 season. It seems more like we got tired of him NOT listening. Don't you recall him droning, "We're a championship caliber team if we play up to our capabilities". Aye, aye, aye. Such short memories.

NL Eastern Division will be close at the top...again. We need some additional talent to push us over the top. 3rd baseman, starter, reliever???? We're a little thin and if we get injuries, we're too thin on the bench.

Go, Phils!!!! Go get us three more players.

RamirS:

We Won't go until we get some

We Won't go until we get some

We Won't go until we get some

But we can't cause we're cheap!

ditto:

Ditto to those of you pointing out that the Phils ain't cheap. Its getting really old reading how cheap the Phils are when they aren't. Also, ditto to scorekeeper, this is a good ball club and its good because Pat doesn't listen to guys like us. He also has a great track record. Ed might have listened to guys like us and look where it got him.

ditto:

Ditto to those of you pointing out that the Phils ain't cheap. Its getting really old reading how cheap the Phils are when they aren't. Also, ditto to scorekeeper, this is a good ball club and its good because Pat doesn't listen to guys like us. He also has a great track record. Ed might have listened to guys like us and look where it got him.

ditto:

Ditto to those of you pointing out that the Phils ain't cheap. Its getting really old reading how cheap the Phils are when they aren't. Also, ditto to scorekeeper, this is a good ball club and its good because Pat doesn't listen to guys like us. He also has a great track record. Ed might have listened to guys like us and look where it got him.

Jon:

I think we can win the division, especially if the Mets don't add a #1 starter. However, they really should add a third baseman, starter and late innings reliever.

At this point, the Phillies need to make a trade for a third baseman who can give them excellent offensive and defensive production - Atkins would be my top choice, but Beltre would also work. There are no minor leaguers who project as an outstanding third baseman, and there are no good free agent 3B's coming out next year, so this is a need that we need to fill via trade. Dobbs' and Helms' lack of defensive ability will cost us some games.

I can understand why they didn't rush out to sign one of the free agent starters, but there were some good free agent closers and/or setup guys that we should have signed (Cordero, Riske, etc). I'd like to see Dotel.

BB:

Mighty 55, I thought about Andrew Jones right after I hit "post". I'm pulling for Pat as well.

To everyone talking about trades, trade who for what?!?!? We have no one to trade wich means we can't pick up anyone in a trade. We make it sound so easy to wheel and deal. I'm sure Pat and the other big wigs are doing everything in thier power to make the team better. I don't know who said it but every team has question marks, yes even Boston. Some more than others. We aught to be greatful we don't fall in the categorie of "needy ballclub" anymore. We have a real good team and should contend for years to come. It's not thier fault that players don't sign here. And guess what, I think the major reason position players don't sign her is because of us, the "get on you" fans. Every player that plays here has unbelievably thick skin. We don't have "Nice" guys here because the fans in Philly will eat them alive. And the nice guys we do have here don't play a major role on any of our sports teams, they are role players. I remember when a pitcher by the name of David Weathers (I think, help me out with the name if I am not correct). He had a horid game and the fans got on him like I've never seen before. I saw tears come out of his eyes and I know it was not sweat! He then went on to be a pretty good reliever on SOME OTHER CITY'S TEAM! Nice guys finish last in Philly but finish in first place in other sports towns. Lets support our boys this year and not tear them down!

Tigger:

BB is smokin' weed.

Optimistic:

Hell must have frozen over because there's actual talk about Phillies Baseball in the dead of Winter.I'm sorry,the Eagles season is over.I wish I could have heard Phillies chants at the Eagles games,as payback for all those Eagles chants at the Citizens Bank Park.

BB:

Tigger: Case in point!...

bryan:

I agree with BB.

However, if he would waive his no trade I think we could get rolen for maybe helms and a low level prospect...and that would because it would essentially free up about $10 mill a year for st. louis. (we might be able to get beltre for that as well, but is he better than helms? or that much better?)

i would like freddie sanchez or ty wigginton as well and that shouldn't take too much especially ty

Rod:

Maybe if the Phillies dedicated their off season to building a team that would have to slump badly instead of exceeding expectations to win a playoff game, they would win a championship more then once a century.

Johnny P:

Someone misunderstood me because I didn't write very clearly. I wouldn't trade Victorino for Lofton. I'd try to pick up someone like Lofton or Podosek or another older center fielder and deal Victorino (or a combo of him & Kendrick) for a solid #3 starter or a tough left handed reliever. Victorino is a young So Taguchi. That deal would never happen for the reasons I mentioned. Victorino is a nice platoon player and Kendrick is a kid who could struggle this year. No one would deal a good starter or reliever for those guys.
If Kendrick and Eaton struggle and Moyer is too old to be affective than the Phils will be in a heap of trouble. That's why I'm fantasizing about some team being dopey enough to take Kendrick & Victorino for a quality #3 starter. If Kendrick and anyone else in the 4th & 5th spots can be affective than the Phils can't be beat in the east.
Look out for those Diamonbacks. They've got 2 very fine starters at the top of their rotation and those suckers can hit. They signed a real nice starter but I can't remember who.

Robert Parsons:

The Phillies as of right now are hands down the favorite to win the east. I just read through all of the posts. So im going to respond to a few of the things listed in order here.

1) Arizona absolutely got better this offseason, however, anyone claiming that they can hit too, is very mistaken. Based on their run differntial they should have won 20 or so LESS games then they did. Even with better pitching, im not sure they are better then their record last year. Everything had to go right for them to have that record.

2) The Phillies starting pitching should be better then it was last year. Hamels and Myers are two number 1 caliber starters at the top of the rotation. Moyer and Kendrick should keep them in games ( which is really all they need their starters to do ) and I think Eaton should rebound from last season. The guy is not as has never been a 6.36 ERA guy. Even this past season, he would pitch well for most of the game, and then get blasted in one inning. I think he improves to a 4.50 to 4.75 ERA guy which would be fine

3) Everyone is always so down on Pat Burrell. Not only is this a contract year for him, but I think with a good season the Phillies will resign him. During the 2nd half of last season he was fantastic, and he stopped getting off balance when swinging. Over the past 3 seasons he has averaged .265, 30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 78 Runs, .394 OBP and a .503 Slugging. Where are we replacing those numbers? Tell me one person in ANY other city who has numbers like that, and everyone in the city wants him traded.

4)The guy who thinks Victorino is a platoon player. Are you joking? Last season he hit .281/.347/.423 and stole 37 bases. He is also developing power, and defensively is fantastic. With a very strong arm as well. How is this guy a platoon player? Aaron Rowand ran into walls, but he is still a guy with limited range, and a weak arm. He also had a career year last year, and swings and misses entirely too much. Also if there is one spot in your outfield where you can have a player without a ton of power, it is center field.

5) The Phillies had the 13th highest payroll in baseball last season, and I believe they are going to be around 15th this season if it started right now. Yes they need to spend more money. However, I agree with them not paying the people on the market this season. Rowand was way too much money and way too long of a contract. Did anyone want the Phillies paying Carlos Silva 4yrs/48 million? They made a play at Lowell, who was the one free agent that would have made a huge difference for them. I for one, dont want them spending money just for the sake of spending it.

BenazirB:

Don't you have to be 14 or have an IQ above 70 to post on this blog? I must be thinking of somewhere else.

Sorry this is the MR children's blog. I was looking to talk baseball.

KennyG:

I saw David Weathers crying on the mound once because the Phillies fans were mean to him.

BuddyL:

I think the Phillies can trade Wes Helms and Clay Condrey for Scott Rolen.

PJohns:

The Phillies could sign Kenny Lofton and Scott Posednik and then trade Victorino for a good pitcher. Then we would win the pennant.

RRM:

I hope that Carrasco, Savery, and Outman all are ready to pitch and contribute by midseason. We could put one or two of them into the rotation and trade the other for more hitting help.

BB:

I saw Kenny Lofton, Scott Posednik, Scott Rolen, Wes Helms, David Weathers and a Phillies prospect crying because the Phillies fans were mean to them.

Then I had to smoke some weed to get over my feelings. I recorded my feelings on a Phillies blog.

JoseC:

I once heard Juan Varleta give a Shadow Traffic report and then I cried.

BillyRubin:

I cry at weddings and when I hear reports of young children being saved from an avalanche. I cried this morning.

Are Phillies fans mean? That would make me cry.

ScottP:

I wish we heard more from Robert Parsons. I was riveted by his five paragraph treatise and would like to learn more about baseball from him.

Rob, maybe you could start your own blog. I would be there every day.

Do you think if we resigned Burrell now, we could save some money? Maybe 5 years, $50 million with some incentive bonuses?

BobbyB:

Oh, you guys.............I'm not going to self-disclose on this blog again!!!

KMG:

I cry every time I see Wes Helms hit a seven hopper to third base with runners in scoring position. I also cried every time JD Durbin and his 800 something ERA took the mound last year when we weren't ahead or behind by more than 15 runs.

John in LA:

When did all these lame, personal attacks on posters start? It's funny - all through the season there were maybe 10 of us who posted regularly (I know, right, give me an award). Still, everybody kept it respectful and even - at times - funny. Now it's mostly people insulting one another if they don't agree with a post.

The saddest part is: most of the original posters aren't around anymore. Oh well. You guys win. Go Phils!

s:

Robert Parsons - I'd be surprised if Eaton can get his ERA into the 4's. Happy, but surprised. He's mostly a fly ball pitcher and his low ERA years all came in San Diego at Qualcomm and Petco. He's the wrong pitcher for CBP.

clinton, nj:

Hey John in LA, I think since the Phils arent playing, then the bloggers arent blogging. They are smart enough not to get caught up in all this off season stuff. They will wait til spring time, just like the ball club! THEN ITS ON!!!!!!! And why do the Fight'ins insist on having a god damn slogan every year??? Do getting 'goosebumbs' sell that many more tickets/merchandise/food/beer/parking/ect.????

Jim Phelan:

Who has the best spring training travel packages? I'm looking to hit Clearwater around St. Patrick's day.

Anonymous:

Eaton's career Road ERA is in the 4's.

Franchises cannot be substantially improved through trades. Individual trades can benefit a franchise, but overall you simply cannot count on doing much better than breaking even. That's because you can fool some people all the time and all people some of the time, but you cannot fool all people all of the time. Nobody is in the trade market to get ripped off. A trade has to be value for value in order to get done. Call it the law of conservation of talent.

A dominant franchise can be built only through the draft and, to a lesser extent, through free agency. In the trading market, all you can do is move talent around from future to present, present to future, or position to position. Some people do nothing but whine about how the Phillies aren't doing more this offseason, but they never have any realistic concrete suggestions for exactly what they ought to do. That's because they're more interested in bitching than they are in telling the truth. The only valid complaint that can be levelled against the Phillies is that their drafts from 3-6 years ago weren't good enough.

Robert Parsons:

Guys. I wasnt saying that they should resign him for 5 years 50 million. I wouldnt be surprised if they did resign Burrell though. Something like 3 years 27 million. If he plays the way he did in the 2nd half of last season, how can they not?

Eaton also pitched decent when he was with Texas ( albeit for a limited period ) which is a home run park as well. He is not a stud pitcher, but he is better then what he did last year. He also won 10 games last year with that horrible ERA. If he can get it down to 4.8-4.90, with our offense he could win 15-16 games.

Or he could get waived after posting a 12.75 ERA in April. I think he pitches better this season though.

Jared in RI:

Eaton and Helms had a bad year and will probably be closer to the average of their career this year. Rowand had a career year and will probably regress to the mean and Burrell is unexplainable that he looks like Babe Ruth for half a season and Mario Mendoza for the other half. But he somehow ends up with the same stats for a season. Anyway this team has a lot of potential and if everything breaks their way they could go to the world series. However, if nothing breaks right they could lose the division title and miss the playoffs by a few games.

Right now if I had to rank the NL teams it would go like this.
1. Arizona- Dominant 1-2 starters and bulpen. Good young improving hitters with a flair for the clutch
2. Colorado- Great young lineup, good bulpen and 2 really young good pitchers. Prediction: Franklin Morales will win 15 this year.
3. Philadelphia- Great young lineup that will be second best in the NL this year to the Rockies. Great 1-2 punch and an average 3,4,5. The bulpen will infuriate us at times.
4. NY Mets- Very good lineup with speed and power. Starting pitching is weak and bulpen is ok.
5. Atlanta- Great 1-2 punch, right up there with Ari and Phi. Average lineup and bulpen.
6. St. Louis (if Chris Carpenter is healthy) Carpenter and Pujols will carry this team through a weak NL Central. Look out for Skip Schumaker to be a pretty good CF this season.

Where would you rank the Phillies if the season started tomorrow?

s:

Eaton only pitched 13 games for the Rangers and only 7 at home. Maybe not enough to see a pattern. And his ERA was 5.12 -- not exactly stellar. I'll just be very surprised if he starts pitching in the 4's. It would be great to be surprised like that but I'm not holding my breath.

s:

Another Eaton stat I don't like: look at his innings pitched. In 2006 for the Rangers he went less than 6 more than 60% of the time. In San Diego he was going 6 or more over 60% of the time. He went 6 or more 50% of the time for the Phillies but only went into the 7th 4 times. Even Moyer, the old man of the rotation, went 6 or more over 65% of his starts. Maybe Eaton was getting in trouble faster at Rangers Ballpark and getting a quicker hook, just like we saw at CBP last year. I'd have to examine his game stats more closely but I think his pattern since the Padres has been a definite downward one.

jrquixote:

Jimmy Phelan...believe it or not the Phillies have a couple packages right on their website. They have an Easter weekend package that is hard to beat. I priced it through a number of agencies and their price is very good, at least for that weekend. Check it out.

Robert Parsons:

I honestly dont see Arizona being a 90 win team again this year. Even with the upgraded pitching. No team has ever done what they did last season with their run differential. Based solely on stats, they should have been a 70-73 win team. Everything went right for them last year to have that record.

Even if the staff is 8-10 games better then last year ( which i think it is ) I see them only winning 80-84 games.

You just cant win 90 games with a negative 20 run differential. Its not going to happen again.

clinton, nj:

I agree with R.Parsons. The Phils had everything(injuries,poor pitching) go against them in 2007, and still finished just a couple games behind Arizona for the best record in the NL. I see the Phils pushing mid to high 90's in wins in 2008.

s:

Barring significant injuries, the Phils should be better and Arizona will have a tough time repeating. So I'm with you there. I just don't think Eaton will factor in. I think Burrell will do just as good or better than he did in 2007. The big knock on Burrell was his salary, but the recent free agent outfielder contracts kind of negate that if he performs the same or better. I'd like to see one more set-up/closer added to the bullpen and ideally a real starter to replace Eaton. But I suspect Durbin is it for the latter. That still, in my mind, leaves Kendrick as the big pitching factor ... whether he was for real in 2007 or not becomes a pretty big factor for the starting rotation (other than injuries).

jrquixote:

The Phillies won't be better by any stretch but neither wiil the Mets or Braves. It will be close once again.

The Phillies could have created some distance but they are too god damned cheap. Wes Helms is not a major league 3rd baseman nor are four pitchers on the Phillies staff.

Yes, Virginia there are better 3rd baseman out there. Wes Helms does not have to be Julio Franco and play for the Phillies until he is 47. Next year and the year after that, 3rd basemen will be more expensive not less. The club simply did not deal with the issue just like the Eagles did not deal with their special teams situation until after the season began. We'll be close but the cigar is not guaranteed unless and until they have more talented bodies.

Johnny P:

Alright, maybe you're right. Maybe I'm being to hard on Victorino. Maybe he's not trade bait. I really like the guy but I'd like a legit #3 starter more. Kendrick just scares me. You guys are also right to say everything went wrong with the Phils last year and they still won the division. I can't imagine everyone getting hurt like last year. If the Phils #3,4 and 5 can be respectable the Phils will be ok because they're gonna knock the snot out of most teams. Over 162 games the Phils in my opinion are probably the best team in the national league. You guys may be right when you say Arizona and Colorado caught lightning in a bottle last year. Howard was hurt. So where Utley, Victorino, Werth, Eaton, Myers, Madson, etc.,etc. They still won. When I think about that it makes me think the Phils are gonna walk away with the division. Especially if they get off to a good start.

s:

If they can win in April for once, that will help. That's something they have some control over. Injuries are another matter. I wouldn't expect another year where 2 of their big 3 (Rollins, Howard, Utley) sit out big stretches hurt, but you never know with pitching. If Hamels and/or Myers go down a lot could go south. Both have injury histories. Let's hope their injuries remain history in 2008. And then there's the Kendrick question, which should be answered soon enough after the season starts.

eman:

We are one starter away from the World Series. A legit No. 3 or even 4 starter makes this rotation AND gives us flexibility to move Myers should Lidge flame out as closer.

The rest of this lineup is very good. Let's look at the Red Sox side by side:

SP1: Beckett vs. Hamels. Beckett, but it's fairly close if Hamels stays healthy.
SP2: Schilling vs. Myers. Myers.
SP3: DiceK vs. Kendrick. DiceK.
SP4-SP5: Who really knows? Push.
Closer: Papelbon vs. Lidge. Papelbon, but sooner or later he's going to crack. Then what?

Catcher: Varitek vs. Ruiz/Coste. Push. Leadership aside, this is a push.
1B/DH: Youkilis-Papi vs. Howard. Howard. Papi is overweight, older and fading.
2B: Pedroia vs. Utley. Clear-cut Utley.
SS: Don't even think about the other guy. Rollins.
3B: Lowell vs. Dobbs/Helms. Lowell, but I would not have done a 4-year-deal with him.
LF: Manny vs. Burrell. Manny, but not by a lot any more.
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Victorino. Ellsbury looks great but I say push because Ellsbury is so young. He hasn't played a full season yet.
RF: JD Drew vs. Werth/Jenkins. Push, though Drew -- I hate him too -- may be better in '08.
Bench: I say the Phillies. Adding vets like Taguchi and Jenkins was good. Taguchi has a ring. Nothing will surprise or disappoint Jenkins. Let's see what Bruntlett brings. He apparently runs well.

We are close. We are a Dice-K away from matching up. No reason why the Phillies cannot go to the Series with one more, 14-win starter who stays healthy.

Stand Pat: Go get him.

clinton, nj:

Myers doesnt really have a history of injuries. The only reason he got hurt last year was because they threw him into the closers role after being a starter for a long time and his arm/shoulder couldnt handle the drastic change. Im pretty sure he was basically injury free before that. Hamels is a whole other story. Im not sure if the whole 'back problems caused my arm/shoulder/elbow problems' story he was throwing out there. I do know one thing though, for everyones sake, Phils please get a chiropractor on the team so that Hamels back/arm/shoulder/elbow wont be a problem in 2008!

KennyG:

The Phillies are better than the Red Sox.

BuddyL:

Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Kendrick, and Eaton are all better pitchers than Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester, and Buchholz. Lidge is a better reliever than Papelbon.

Red Sox have no chance against the Phillies in a World Series.

PJohns:

If we're just optimistic, the Phillies will win it all. Actual talent has nothing to do with it.

I think Adam Eaton is better than Beckett particularly in the post season.

Tigger:

eman is smokin' weed.

Scorekeeper:

Knock off the crap about the Phils being cheap. It's getting old.

Who in God's name would you have spent the money on?

And as far as trades, who do you think they have in their system that Minnesota would take in a Santana trade?

Also, it is against MLB rules to trade draft picks, so forget about that possibility.

Next thing you'll be saying is that we should move Burell back to third.

It's been a good off-season...not great, but good. Wait for spring and see who becomes available.

No need to jump the gun. How many of you guys married the first girl you slept with?

BuddyL:

Come on scorekeeper, if you're not 14 years old you need an IQ of 70 to post here. Who in the hell are your or anybody else to say that Wes Helms is a major league 3rd baseman. He can't hit, can't field, and can't pinch hit. What the hell does he bring to the table? Playing cheap for the Phillies.

You can drink the Koolaid that says a team can gross $200 million and field guys like Helms. It's indefensible. This is a team that took the fans to the very limit last year winning the division on the last day of the season, then lost Rowand and then simply didn't support the team or the fans by bringing in additional talent.

I don't expect pure indiots like scorekeeper to come in here and figure out what the opposition is going to do with a 3-4-5 of Utley, Howard, and Jenkins. I don't expect morons like eman to say that our starting five mathces up with the starters of the Bosox in the World Series.

Teams who want to win go after it. New England went after Welker, Stallworth, Moss, Kyle Brady, and Aslius Thomas because they wanted another championship. Unlike the NFL, MLB does not have a salary cap.

When the Philes go after the dreck (Yiddish for sh*t) that they have it tells you they simply don't care. It's geniuses like scorekeeper and eman that keep the Phillies content with finishing close every quarter century.

So scorekeeper and eman, continue with your loser-speak about being grateful with signing Chriss Snelling and So Taguchi. The rest of us will remind the fan base of the simple raality that we have won nothing and won't becasuse of extremely mediocre thinking.

Go back to bed and do what you do best.

bryan:

Buddy Lee,
Who should the phillies sign or trade for to replace Helms?

And you're right there is only a self imposed budget in baseball. Who should they have spent the money on?

And when teams can go lefty against utley, howard, jenkins they should say thank you charlie b/c burrell or werth is breaking up the lefties.

DOn't make fun of scorekeeper (except for the name). Don't make fun of eman..its too easy too pick on the retarded.

The patriots got those guys because of poor managment on the dolphins and GB (they should have gotten moss) or b/c of the salary cap (Thomas).

Also, not a helms fan but look at the following stats [AB Avg. Rs RBIs BB KO] 3 yr AVg. 04-06 (Sportsline doesn't include '07 yet)
Beltre 607 .285 87 99 46 104
Blalock 621 .267 88 97 59 126
chavez 528 .263 84 83 79 109
crede 489 .260 66 75 29 68
P. Feliz 558 .256 72 88 31 100
Helms 227 .295 24 33 20 48
Inge 522 .264 67 73 46 113

and Helms 2007 (since his ABs are an outlier)
helms 280 .246 21 39 19 62

helms 2007 doubled
helms 560 .246 42 78 38 124

ok so I think 2 things pop out from these stats
#1 Beltre seems to be much better than I thought. If we can get him without giving up much might not be a bad idea.
#2 is helms really that far off the other 3B that are probably available at this time? I would say no. And Chavez and Blalock are still looked at as real good.

JoseC:

We're cheap like cheap bastards

We're cheap like cheap bastards

We're cheap like cheap bastards

We're Cheap, Cheap, Cheap, Cheap

Otter:

List of 3rd Baseman better than Wes Helms

Ty Wigginton
Pedro Feliz
Jose Bautista
Brandon Inge
Hank Blalock
Mike Lamb
Mark Reynolds
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Troy Glaus
Scott Spezio
Rick Schu
David Bell
Lee Harvey Oswald
King Henry VIII
Potsy
Ralph
Fonzie
Your Mother
My Mother
Pope Leo XXIII

GregG:

The Phillies are Losers!

TonyO:

Dennis Werth is a figment of your imagination, although I do hear his mother might be the next Pope.

AbeN:

I'm better than Helms!

tigger:

Bryan is smokin' weed.

Mark in Delaware:

Wes Helms correct stats for 2007:
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBIBB K SB CS Avg OBP Slg
280 21 69 19 0 5 39 19 62 00 .246 .297 .368

As a pinch hitter

32 1 4 1 0 3 2 1 12 0 0 .125 .194 .156

Hard to replace that kind of production, especially the way he fields?

JoseC:

Glad tidings we bring, to you and your kin

We wish we could win a pennant

But we can't cause we're cheap!

Ed in Delaware County:

The only reason Wes Helms in the Phillies 3rd baseman is because the Phillies are cheap!

Cheap is as cheap does. The Phillies as Jose so aptly puts it are cheap bastards. We support them but they do not support their players or their fans with players like Helms.

Gus in Coatesville:

Shylocks, cheapskates, churls, curmudgeons, gluttons, harpys, hoarders, hogs, hunks, misanthropes, misanthropists, moneygrubbers, muckworms, penny pinchers, pigs, pikers, pinchfists, pinchpennys, screws, scrimps, scrooges, skinflints, stiffs, tightwads

What's your favorite nickname for our thrity ones?

Money.....don't leave home without it (when you're going to a Phillies game)

Tony A:

The phillies season will be defined by the stating pitching and the numbers put up or not put up by who ever plays 3rd base.

jrquixote:

I prefer "nopockets" as the nickname of our underfunded franchise.

Ted A:

Is it true that Dave Montgomery has Ruben "Little Ed" Amaro, Jr. scan Citizen's Bank Ballpark with a metal detector looking for loose change after the games? I hear that money goes into a jar and that's they money they use to sign free agents.

Benny B:

The Phillies don't need a 3rd baseman. They can just let the ball roll into left field and eventually Pat Burrell will come in to pick it up. We can save a roster spot and additional money that way.

Bruce in Trenton:

I like the name "misers" for our impoverished teams. Short and sweet just like the 3 games we've had in the playoffs the past 15 years.

RamirS:

Bryan,

Put down that blunt for a minute. What is the Phillies lineup going to be against righthanders? What is going to happen when the other team then brings in a lefty?

What the hell do those 3 year numbers on Helms mean. He hasn't been a starter since 2003. There's a reason for that. He can't play.

Wes Helms is not a major league 3rd baseman. Get over it.

Please resume with the blunt.

JoseC:

We Wish we could win a pennant

We Wish we could win a pennant

We Wish we could win a pennant

But we can't cause we're cheap!

Joe D from Perkasie:

Dave Montgomery, Pat Gillick and Ruben "Little Ed" Amaro, Jr. are The Three Scrooges!

Steve D:

Last year it was a pitcher from AA Reading who kept the ball on the ground in key situations that saved the season. No different this year. Teams are winning with "young" not "old" arms. I would load up Reading with the best five young arms in the system and hope one of them pops by mid season just like KK did last year. My nominees for the opening day Reading rotation: Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter, Savery and Monasterios.

clinton, nj:

finally a serious post....yay!!

tigger:

Humor and sports. What a concept. Clinton could use to smoke some weed.

bryan:

listen fruits, all I was saying is as bad as helms is his numbers are comparable to other guys that we could get for a "reasonable" amount. Now is it worth it to give up something for similar production?

and otter I agree with wigginton (which I have said on previous posts).. Kouzmanoff is probably a good one too, but the rest of those guys are basically a push. And I don't want to give up a prospect, no matter who he is, for a push.

s:

I agree with Tony A and Steve D: pitching will define the season more than 3B. And, ultimately, it will be the young home grown pitchers who make this team good, not spinning the roulette wheel each year on has-been pitchers with no arms left. It would be nice to have a better third baseman, but with the other 3 infield positions manned by MVP level players, how important is it to have a big 3B bat? Who has 4 top shelf infielders? I'd rather have one more good #3 level starting pitcher. And, while whining about Helms, remember we'll also have Dobbs. I don't see Dobbs as an every day player but he was pretty good off the bench last year. If Helms stinks up the joint, they can take a chance starting Dobbs. I'd still consider Nunez for his defense if I were the Phillies -- at least as a backup or in the minors for a while.

jrquixote:

Bryan,

You seem like a nice guy. Wes Helms can't play 3rd base in the majors. Here's the problem. When you start off with the premise of, "I like the Phils, therefore Wes Helms must be good" doesn't work. Helms had a chance to start and play 3rd base for Milwaukee in 2003. It didn't work. How do I know that? Look at his record, he's been a scrub since. Batting .246 with 5 HR's and 39 RBI's is weak. Pinch hitting he was 4 for 32, that's weak.

None of us can start with the premise of "I like him, therefore he's good." Wes Helms is not good. Help yourself and don't go down that road.

There are bloggers here that feel the Phillies have done everything they can. I don't beleve that, and there are a number of others who feel that way.

Look at the number of tenured major league veterans starting at any position for $2.5 million a year. How many? That would be none. Why? Because they don't work that cheap. Wes Helms is the Phillies 3rd baseman because he comes cheap. He will be gone after this year and then become someone else's scrub.

Why do we have to go through this year with a scrub at 3rd base? Because he is cheap. Who will play 3rd base for the Phillies in 2009? Will that player cost less and thus save the Phillies money? It is the job of Pat Gillick and Ruben "Little Ed" Amaro, Jr. to solve those problems. They are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to do so.

Let's not enable the Phillies to convince us that the cheapest alternative is always the best alternative. There is no truth to that.

TonyO:

S, you don't seem to get it. How many major league pitchers are on our 25 man roster? How many years must we have Helms at 3rd base? How much better will our next 3rd baseman be? How much less will they cost?

If not now, when? If not for this, for how much less?

Is cheap always better? What in the Phillies 130 year history suggest that?

clinton, nj:

I think the Phils signed Helms hoping he'd be a 'role' player, knowing he wasnt gonna put up A-rod numbers at third, but banking on enough to compliment the big bats on the team. So last year didnt work out, get over it already! 2008 is a new year and maybe Helms will have settled in a bit and bat .280 w/10-13 hr and 45-60 rbi in a platoon. And if he flops again, someone esle will step up. We are getting 3rd base numbers out of our 2nd basemen, so all we need is 2nd base numbers out of our 3rd basemen and all will be good in Philly! We will hit just as good if not better than last year, as always, it'll come down to pitching. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!!

clinton, nj:

I think the Phils signed Helms hoping he'd be a 'role' player, knowing he wasnt gonna put up A-rod numbers at third, but banking on enough to compliment the big bats on the team. So last year didnt work out, get over it already! 2008 is a new year and maybe Helms will have settled in a bit and bat .280 w/10-13 hr and 45-60 rbi in a platoon. And if he flops again, someone esle will step up. We are getting 3rd base numbers out of our 2nd basemen, so all we need is 2nd base numbers out of our 3rd basemen and all will be good in Philly! We will hit just as good if not better than last year, and as always, it'll come down to pitching. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!!

Johnny P:

There are no third baseman to be had thru free agency. Lowell was the only one and the Phils made a good offer. Most teams place a very high value on third baseman. Most guys can't both hit and field the position. When you have one you don't let him go. Don't mention Rolen because that's ancient history. Why bring back Nunez when this guy Bruntlett is the same type player. It'll be Dobbs and Helms at third and Bruntlett will come in for defense like Nunez did last season. If both Helms and Dobbs struggle than you'll see the Phils work out some kind of a trading deadline deal. If the rest of the infield starts the year healthy (remember Howard last season) and stays healthy the Phils can carry a mediocore 3rd base. If Helms bounces back and hits like they expected last year then the Phils will be in very good shape.
So far the Phils have had a pretty good off season. Pat Gillick is pretty shrewd and the best GM this town has seen in any sport since Paul Owens. Gillick has a way of picking up guys who aren't apparent stars who really help a ball club. That's the sign of a great gm. Any meathead can pick up a free agent (see Ed Wade's signing of Jim Thome). Thome was a great signing. It was the little guys Wade didn't have the talent to spot. The talent to judge talent is the mark of a great gm. I'd be surprised if Chad Durbin or that rule 5 lefthander the Phils picked up from the Giants don't help. One or both of those guys is probably going to make a difference. Who the heck were Dobbs and Werth?
Be patient. Gillick is building a beast. I just wish they could sign him for 1 or 2 more years. If he gets just a little bit lucky you'll be looking at a team comparable to the Blue Jays team he built that waxed the Phils asses in '83. It takes a little luck. Cheap's got nothing to do with it. The Phils are spending money.

clinton, nj:

'93 johhny, ninety freakin three lol im still bitter, but your right about PG and this upcoming year!

Tigger:

Phillies added:
Brad Lidge, Geoff Jenkins, Chad Durbin, So Taguchi, Eric Bruntlett and Chris Snelling.

Lost: Aaron Rowand, Tadahito Iguchi, Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary.

Posted by Todd Zolecki

So far the Phils have had a pretty good off season. Pat Gillick is pretty shrewd and the best GM this town has seen in any sport since Paul Owens.
Posted by Johnny P

There is some serious weed being smoked in this room. Somebody call the police. Weed leads to harder drugs.

TonyO:

Abe Nunez, Julio Santana, Sal Fasano, Chris Booker, Ricardo Rodriguez, Ryan Franklin, Josh Kroger,Arthur Rhodes, Alex Gonzalez, Freddy Garcia,Adam Eaton, Rod Barajas, Chris Snelling, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett, So Taguchi
Gillick's player acquisitions - Phillies Media Guide

So far the Phils have had a pretty good off season. Pat Gillick is pretty shrewd and the best GM this town has seen in any sport since Paul Owens.
Posted by Johnny P

Saint Patrick ain't no Pope Paul. You couldn't feed the dog with the garbage we've thrown out from Gillick acquisitions.

Joe D from Perkasie:

The Phillies haven't replaced the offensive production they lost. They are weak from the right side of the plate. Is doesn't make sense to play three 3rd basemen many games when you only have five bench players.

Optimism doesn't win games. Players do. We're still a bit short. Pedro Feliz is an upgrade at 3rd base. Damn the type B free agency. The future is now.

The Phillies are a good team. The division, at the top, will be close again. A couple of modest acquisitions could put us over the top.

Go Phils!

jrquixote:

There are still some free agents that could possibly help the Phillies.

Mike Myers and Ron Villone are two lefty relievers that might look good in the bullpen.

Shaun Chacon is a similar pitcher to Chad Durbin in that he can start and relieve.

Josh Fogg is a proven 5th starter might give you help at the end of the rotation.

Dallas McPherson is a liability though signing him to a minor league contract and seeing how he does with the Iron Pigs would be no loss.

None of those players would break the bank.

I agree with Joe D from Perkasie that Pedro Feliz would be an immediate upgrade from Helms. But they would have to dig into their piggy bank a little.

bryan:

JR congrats you can write...now learn to read. I started out saying I don't like wes helms and I agree that he is bad. My premise is that he is not appreciably worse than what is available to the Phillies. I look at it this way. Say you have a 2006 camry and your buddy has the same exact car except it has 10,000 less miles on it. Are you going to trade him $1,500 and your car for his? No. So why give up a draft pick, minor leaguer, or more money for a guy who is roughly the same player.

If you have a reasonable/realistic proposal for a true upgrade lets hear it.


And over the past 3 years Feliz has hit .256. That isn't an upgrade over helms or at least an appreciable one. I semi agree we are weaker from the right side (rowand will not be close to those numbers ever again), but all I would like for us to find is a good on base guy who plays D. Our overall offensive production loss will come from howard and utley playing the full year.

Listen I posted at the start of free agency we should kick the tires on A-rod or go after one of the miguels those ships have sailed. I would like us to look at wigginton or freddie sanchez those could be reasonable guys to get.

Scorekeeper:

Relax Buddy. I didn't say Helms was any good. I've posted twice above, and Helms isn't named in either post. If you want to insult my intelligence, base it on my actual posts. You seem like a pretty smart guy. Just acknowledge a different point of view. Keep up the personal insults, and it makes your opinions seem less worthwhile.

But since you bring him up, Helms is what's there, and nothing you say or do is going to change that. Pat Gillick isn't logging on here to see what you or any one else has to say, so if you think your tirades are being heard by the Phillies, forget it.

The reason the Phillies haven't traded for a solid third baseman or Johan Santana is not money. The only way to get the Twins to even take a call from Philly is to mention Chase Utley as part of a package. If that happened, we'd all be irate. I'm not willing to trade any of the established core. That might be the only thing everyone here agrees on.

Arbuckle, Wade, and Giles have decimated the farm system. The Phillies dropped big paychecks on guys like Thome, Burrell, and Myers. They tried to pay big money to Rolen before they had to trade him. Lowell got a very respectable offer. So did Rowand. Money isn't stopping trades. When it comes to trading blocks, we don't have much. Guys in here have been saying that Savery and Outlaw and even Drabek should be offered. Well, your opinions of those guys are higher than those of the other GMs out there. Simply put, they aren't enough.

So, we start Spring Training with Helms. We wait to see who is available as the season progresses, and if there is a guy out there that makes sense, get him before July 31.

Tell you what, Buddy. If Rowand finishes his 5 year deal with SF with fewer than 4 injuries that keep him off the field, I'll wax your car. It wasn't money that kept that deal from happening....it was length of contract. Five years for a guy who runs into walls is too many.

Honestly, are the Phillies a "Ty Wiggington" away from a parade down Broad Street? I don't think so. Bryan is right. Why give up a decent prospect for a guy who won't be much better than what we've got.

If the Phillies are going to go get someone else, it should be a pitcher. I don't care who starts at 3B, he isn't going to give up gopher balls or cause the bullpen to become over-extended.

One last thing about money. I believe Bill Conlin when he says it's the ownership group holding the purse-strings, not the front office. You give Pat Gillick $150 million, I think he'll spend it. But they won't give him that money, even if there was someone to spend it on.

And Scorekeeper is an awesome name, punks.

BuddyL:

Bryan is correct about Pedro Feliz but I'll take it a step further.

Over the past 4 years in Giant's AT&T Park, Feliz had averaged .255, 21 HRs, and 84 RBI's per year. Now look at the park factors for AT&T vs. Citizens Bank Ballpark. What would those numbers reasonably translate to with the short left field porch at the Cit? Maybe 25 HRs and 90 RBI's? How does that compare to the 5 HR's and 39 RBI's for Helms?

If the Phillies can get Feliz for a 2-3 year stint they should do it. He is a legitimate everyday 3rd baseman in the league, while Helms is not. Feliz is not a stretch and he won't break the bank. They have no one else.

Just a thought for debate.

tigger:

scorekeeper is angry. Maybe he should try some weed to calm him down.

It's baseball dude. Have fun!

cw:

Much has been said about Rowand and "if he stays healthy" for the Giants. Does anyone think Victorino will stay healthy? I don't. He exposed himself last year as he faded the last 50 or so games. He may not have enough stamina or durabiity for 162 games, and may need plenty of rest for the stretch run. As for Pat Burrell, I expect he will continue to strike out alot but will still hit 30 homers and knock in 95 rbi's. He is what he is.

Anonymous:

TonyO: They tried the money route for 3B when they tried to land Lowell. It didn't work out. I'm not saying they should give up on 3B. What I'm saying is it's not the end of the world to have a 3B problem if you have MVP's at 1B, 2B, and SS. It's obvious they're not just going to spend wildly, so we need to get over that and live with the reality of their budget. They're no different than most other teams in that regard (I say that knowing the exceptions will now be called out ...). My point is, given the choice now between upgrading 3B and adding a good starter, I'd add the starting pitcher.

My other point is that they've got a weak farm system at the positional spots. A really good 3B player now will require trade bait and the Phillies have little to offer. Pitching may be what they have the most to offer prospect-wise, but how much of your near future pitching do you give up for something like a 3B player? My opinion is very little if any, Just my opinion of course.

Bottom line: I don't like the 3B situation any better than you do but I want to deal with the rotation first. Actually winning a WS requires pitching. I don't want to just get there.

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Todd Zolecki is in his sixth season covering the Phillies. Born and raised in Milwaukee – he suffered through the Packers’ crushing loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field in January – he graduated from the University of Minnesota with a journalism degree.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 25, 2007 2:55 PM.

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