The Zo Zone

Well, it looks like James isn't predicting that the Phils will pound the ball.
Otherwise, how does he see the three starters shaving so much off of their ERAs, yet winning 5 less games? Only 24 saves for Lidge?

Zo, to my way of thinking we're a bit too thin. From what I hear, Pat Gillick kind of feels that way too.

There is a core (or corps, perhaps) of decent question marks. However there are question marks, maybe a bit too many. What are we going to get out of Gordon and Eaton? How much does Moyer have left in the tank? Will Ryan Madson stay healthy? Which Brad Lidge will show up? How many boo-boos will Hamels have this year? Will Kendrick continue to perform as we saw last year?

It's not that we can't be good or won't be good, but there is some possibility of a roller coaster ride again this year. Do we need another starter?

Guys I wouldn't be counting on include Blackley, Castro, Condrey, the two Durbin boys, Ennis, Happ, Mathieson, Rosario, Matt Smith, Youman, or Zagurski. That's a pitching staff unto itself with ifs.

The 2008 Phillies will be good, but will they be good enough?

I wish I could put $$ on these projections....

Gordon with the lowest ERA of the pitchers listed?!?!? Are you kidding me??

And Lidge with only 24 saves??--unless they are projecting a Lidge injury, I think he easily saves 35 games.

Because, RG, he doesn't have Myers in the rotation, and he has the Phillies using two closers at once.

I don't think James gives himself a lot of discretion in these predictions. He uses a set formula to spit out numbers based on past stats. The upside to this is that you eliminate internal bias and subjectivity. The downside is that you can't adjust for sudden developments like somebody being moved from the bullpen to the rotation. The pros probably outweigh the cons overall, but this is one of those instances where the cons outweigh the pros.

The Phillies probably will pound the ball less next year though. While it's certainly possible that Rollins and Utley will repeat their 2007 performances, the smart money has to be against it. It's more likely than not that they'll both take a step backwards.

These are purely for fun. A guy in my league actually publishes this book and he always says do not put any faith in it. For instance with Lidge, he was not the closer for portions of 2007 so the 2008 projection takes that into effect that he will not be closing all season. Same thing with Madson, it also projects he will be injured again based on games played.

Our pitching will be fantastic!! Its a long, long season as we all know, but if we can make it to the playoffs again, we only need 3 solid starters. We definately have 2, and I like Moyer in big games. So we just have to fight through the season with what we end up with on March 31st and hope to be watching the Phils come October again. Thats all we can do!!

To me the Phils have only three starters capable of winnigg at CBP. To be effective starting pitching here you need to be able to get strike outs or induce ground balls in key situations. Only Hamels, Myers with strike outs and Kendick with ground balls meet these standards. Last year Hamels and Kendrick combined to win 16 more games than they lost while Moyer and Eaton were able to win only 2 more games than they lost.

In the off season the Phils have not completely solved this starting pitching problem but moving Myers to the starting rotation will help. But the back end of the rotation will struggle all season to win more than they lose. Certainly Chad Durbin who is more of a fly ball pitcher suited for spacious parks like Detroit will not solve the problem.

No one appears to be ready in the Farm system but Josh Outman showed potential in the Taipei World Cup games in November as a strike out pitcher and Joe Savery in the Arizona Fall League and Carlos Monasterios in the VWL this Fall both showed potential as ground ball pichers in the Kyle Kendrick mold. One of them may be here sooner than later.

The projections are worthless as they omit two of the top 3 starting pitchers.

If you assume that all five starting pitchers (Myers, Hamels, Kendrick, Moyer, Eaton) pitch 190 innings at career ERAs, then the Phillies pitching in 2008 will be much better than in 2007 (a 4.17 ERA compared to a 4.73 ERA). Of course, some of these pitchers will be probably be worse than career and others better (Myers and Hamels in particular). But assuming that evens out, the starting pitching in 2008 should be much improved.

Even more certain is that the rotation at the end of 2008 will not be what it was at the beginning. Some starters will fall out due to injury or ineffectiveness and new ones will be added, by trade or from within, as happens EVERY YEAR.

I think these ratings don't mean much. Without Kendrick and Myers' numbers its extremely imcomplete. I expect Kendrick to win 14 games while Myers may reach 18. I'm hoping Lidge, who's stuff can be filthy can get over 30 saves if not in the 40's.

Can the Phils offense be as good? Probably not as good but consider the fact that Ryan Howard surely can do better and the fact that Utley is still improving bodes well. I actually expect less out of Rollins. I guess he will be our leadoff man although I wish we could use his power a little lower in the lineup. If Victorino was able to walk more, he could be the leadoff man. He's so hyper however I don't know if could do that.

Oh well, just 4 months to wait to see what happens.

Happy New Year to all Phillies fans. As for Mets and Braves fans.... I hope your new year sucks!

The projections are not meaningless, but you have to know how to read them by understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the system.

James' formulas plug in stats based on recent past performance, age, and trendlines. So they are most useful for making predictions about players who are in the middle of their careers, who haven't suffered from weird freak injuries, and who haven't recently experienced a major shift in role.

So obviously, with someone like Myers or Kendrick the formulas aren't going to work and have to be taken with many grains of salt. However, with someone like Rollins, Burrell, or Helms, the formulas are much more accurate than some fan's gut-impression guesses. Fans and observers invariably give too much weight to what just happened the last season, while totally ignoring what happened the season or two before that. So they get too excited when a guy is coming off a career year, and they bash guys unfairly when they're coming off of off-years. That's why you have so many idiots out there who claim that Pedro Feliz is a better hitter than Wes Helms, when an objective look at all of the evidence would reveal that Helms is a better hitter by a pretty wide margin. Helms was worse than Feliz in 2007 (although not by much), but 2007 stats alone aren't all of the relevant evidence.

For Myers, the safest bet is that he'll probably do about what he did in 2005-2006 (roughly 200 IP, 200 K, and a 3.80 ERA). For Kendrick, who the heck knows? It's very unlikely that he'll be as good as he was last year because his minor league track record just doesn't support that kind of prediction, but then, we could get lucky.

I agree with anonymous. Wes Helms is a favorite among us in the Mid-East. There are posters of Wes Helms all over Egypt, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. A cousin of mine says there are posters of Wes Helms in Nepal.

Go fillies! Go anonymous!

Wes Helms is a fan favorite in Burma, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Anonymous, you must be an Asian or mid-easterner to have such sensitivity.

What if? I hope.... We have to get lucky...
If he holds up.. decent question marks....roller coaster ride...injury or ineffectiveness .....crab shoot.... AHHHHHHH !!!!!!

46 years-one championship and it will be 47 by the time pitchers and catchers report....Same old silly butt stuff..... Please do something before February to make me have a little smile on my ugly face......oh yea !! Happy New Year everyone!!

Anonymous is an Afrikaner. Wes Helms is an icon in Burundi, Malawi, Zambia, and Namibia. He is the first non-soccer player to reach such status and of course the first blonde-haired player.

Wes Helms is best known as "The Mike Schmidt of the Netherlands". Only anonymous would be so astute to know this.

anonymous, weren't you from Estonia or Latvia?

I project that the sun will rise tomorrow morning and it will be a new year- 2008! In this year I project if healthy, Ryan Howard will k 200+ times, than Rollins will steal at least one base and hit at least one triple, and that Adamn Eaton will still suck. Sometimes projections aren't even entertaining, go away Bill James, you had your moment in the sun and now the night has come.

Which anonymous are you referring to? Me or the other people who are anonymous?

I agree that without Kendrick and Myers, too much is left out of the picture for these to be meaningful overall. And who can factor in one of the biggest pitching factors: injury?

I think it's clear that after our 1 and 2, the rest is a huge question mark. I would assume some level of consistency from Moyer if he's not overused. Ideally, we'd carry 6 starters not just for injury protection but to rest Moyer more. And Kendrick is the big question of course. He and Moyer are your ground out pitchers, Hamels and Myers your strikeout pitchers. Steve D is right on with that observation that a lot of people still seem to miss. It's why, in my opinion, Eaton will never be good at CBP -- he's a fly ball pitcher who needs a bigger park to lower that ERA.

All that said, even if the 4 I mention above all line up perfectly with no injuries and no big down years, we still have a gaping hole in the fifth spot. Ideally we get a true #3 on a short contract until someone like Carrasco or Outman is ready. Who that is and what we have to trade for him are beyond me though. I think they need to pursue something other than Durbin #2 there.

The pen is almost set in my opinion. A healthy Madson is key there. Aside from that, I do believe Gordon can be effective but, like Moyer, he can't be overused. I'd still like to see a guy who can set up or close to buffer against that. Otsuka seems like a decent choice there if they're still pursuing him.

Hey Anonymous, yeah you! You know who im talking to. Why dont you add a 1 or 'the one and only' before your name? Cause I cant take this confusion anymore!!

I think the Phils have sufficient pitching to win 90 games but probably not many more. This assumes in 08 that Hamels and Kendrick combine again to win 16 more games than they lose which was their 07 win/lost combined margin. Myers has averaged a winning margin of 4 in his four full seasons as a starter. So the top three must combine to win 20 games over .500. And if the back end of the rotation and the pen can have positive won/lost margins a 92-70 season is doable.

Bill James is pure entertainment for baseball junkies like me. He is often way off base and his predictions are pure conjecture. His material comes out when baseball junkies like me are real horny for a fix, some news as we miss our mistress sport badly. As for the Phils needing more pitching -- YES WE DO !!! So do most other clubs. I only hope that we are like the "Early Bird" and catch (or sign) the worms (pitchers) worth catching in the first place. It is my belief that we need at least one more starter and one more credible relief pitcher.

Last year the Phils won the division with Cole Hamels as their #1 and who the heck was their #2? I think it was Kendrick or Moyer then Lohse toward the end of the season. Not exactly starters to strike fear in the hearts of most lineups. I think Cole Hamels is ready for a big year, from 18 to 20 wins. I thought Myers was going to have a huge year last year as a starter, then he was put in the bullpen. Then there's Kendrick who is a huge question mark. He could be pretty good or be out of the rotation by the end of May. Moyer is an old pro but we can only hope for a 500 record out of him with some clutch performances. It comes down to Kendrick and Eaton. If Kendrick pitches as well as last year and Eaton does as well as Kendrick then the Phils will be off and running.
Why won't the Phils hit like last year? Remember, Ryan Howard had a rocky year last year because he came into spring training out of shape and got hurt. He won't make the same mistake this year. In a struggling year he was arguably the best power hitter in the National League last season. Utley will be right there for the MVP again. Rollins is in his peak. The Phils are going to hit even better than last year. Even Carlos Ruiz should be a better hitter because he's got a year under his belt. I think the Phils will be fine this year. My guess is they win the east again. If they get off to a great start they'll be so far out front that the race will really be over by the end of July. This all depends on everyone's health and Kendrick and Eaton. I think the bullpen will be ok especially if Durban isn't forced into a starting role due to Eaton or Kendrick failing.

Hamels is talented but a bit of a baby and overconcerned with his boo boos. He wants a massage therapist, chiropractor, and spiritualist to accompany the team so he can have his boo boos taken care of. He puts his little aches a pains ahead of the team. That's one (maybe the only one) reason I had hoped the Phillies sign Schilling was to help Hamels grow a pair.

If Myers returns to his starting form he can be a stud. We can only hope that Moyer and Kendrick continue to give us what they did last year. There's no upside to Moyer, only hope that he can give us one more year.

You never have enough pitching. Remember last spring when we thought we had a surplus of starters? What a joke was Garcia, Lieber, and Eaton. Thank god for Kendrick.

Is Eaton our 5th starter or someone else? If someone else, then who? If, as Ed Wade used to put it, the Phillies play up to their capabilities then we can be very effective. If we continue to have the injury problems like last year, we're very ordinary.

Stuff like this shouldn't get any national press. It amazes me what some people will write or do for attention. Is this guy going to predict the end of the world too?

Which anonymous is this? This one feels that because he likes the Phillies they will win it all. I can't tell if this one is the idiot but it would appear so.

Try this anonymous. Put one finger in your mouth and the other up your ass and then play switch. Let's see if you can tell the difference.

Maybe the Phillies will win just because you're an idiot. Bloggers please take pity.

I don't want Hamels to "man up" if it means putting himself on the DL. Give him some credit for knowing his injury weaknesses and trying to address them. If that takes a chiropractor, so be it. I know people with back problems who can't function without regular chiropractor visits. I see it more as him knowing what he needs than him being a baby.

To me, having just enough pitching to win the division isn't enough. To win it all, I think you need three top level starters. We potentially have two in Hamels and Myers. Adding one more would go a long way -- moreso than adding more offense with a 3B acquisition in my opinion. If there's any way to pull off a deal for a good number 3 I'll feel much better about not just winning the East but also going deep into the playoffs.

"Which anonymous is this? This one feels that because he likes the Phillies they will win it all. I can't tell if this one is the idiot but it would appear so."

Hmm. But none of the Anonymous'es who posted above fit that description. Maybe you've left your comment in the wrong thread by mistake.

When you are as close to winning it all as the phils are, you dont start the season banking on eaton, moyer, madson, kendrick, and of course gordon...when you are this close, you go for the kill...go out and overspend, do whatever it takes, the window is open NOW.. So what do we get... more spin!! And guess what?... we all will fill the bank every night regardless...So , who's the fool?

With James' assesment of the Phils future and the way you guys feel about the Phils 3,4 & 5 I'm starting to think I was right when I said the Phils should attempt to deal Victorino and maybe Kendrick or Chad Durbin for a good #3. Then the Phils would have to scrap for another center fielder. The only thing about dealing your starting center fielder is that right now the Phils pretty strong up the middle defensively with Vic,Rollins,Utley & Ruiz. I don't know if everyone else in baseball likes Victorino like we do here in Philly. Him and a #5 like Durbin or Kendrick might not be worth that much.
Making any kind of deal like that would be over reacting though. Kendrick, Eaton and Durbin may be fine and give the Phils a solid season. Unfortunately only time will tell. To pull the trigger on a radical deal would be silly.
Right now the Phils look very good to me. Imagine if you where a Mets fan hoping Pedro is fully healed and he can bedazzle everyone with his 84 mph fastball. He's their #1.
The Braves have Smoltz, Hudson, Glavin and Hampton. It looks pretty good on paper but what's the combined age of those guys. What about their history of injuries. To me its the Phils, Braves and Mets. The Phils win the division in a walk.

Is Livan Hernandez still available? He's an innings eater with playoff experience. He'd be a nice No. 3. This team really, really needs another veteran starter who can eat innings. Adam Eaton needs to go into the season not as the No. 5 starter, not even the No. 6 starter, but the No. 7 starter.

Is any pitching staff good enough? Everyone has holes and flaws. The Phils have one solid starter in Hamels, everyone else is suspect.. Myers had one decent year as a starter, Moyer is 50, Kendrick is a big ?, Eaton is, well.... Eaton, and Durbin is a long relief guy on any other club. So to answer your question, NO this staff is not good enough.

With regards to Bill James, I tend to dismiss his statistical work as a form of fantasy baseball. His statistical analyses bear little resemblance to the actual game played. For instance, James insists that the number of strikeouts in a lineup have nothing to do with run production. He also states that hitters do not have to be "protected" in the lineup regardless of the number of intentional walks they receive. Those ideas run counter to what most of us watch during baseball games. Having said all that, James is a senior adviser to Theo Epstein and the Red Sox and we know what they have accomplished the past four years.

As for the Phillies pitching, you can neither base your optimism upon an overestimation of your own talent or an underestimation of your key opponents talent. Just because the Mets and the Braves have done little so far, is no reason to be complacent about the Phillies prospects. In addition you have to recall that the Phillies are on a budget.

So there is truth in the notion that the current pitching staff is inadequate to the extent it is unpredictable. Livan Hernandez is not a bad suggestion at all. But at the end of the day our champagne tastes are ultimately tempered with the Phillies beer pocketbook. We might agree that Hernandez can help but he would have to agree to play for peanuts.

So, we close our eyes, hold our breath, and hope that we overperform and our key opponents underperform. That's what happens when you're on a "budget".

Go Phils! Go Phils fans!

Eaton cannot be counted upon and neither can Gordon. How much is left in Moyer's tank? Will Kendrick repeat his performance of 2007? Which Lidge shows up?

"Myers had one decent year as a starter"

Wrong. Myers had three decent years as a starter.

2003 (Age 22) - 14-9, 4.43, 143 K in 193 IP
2005 (Age 24) - 13-8, 3.72, 208 K in 215 IP
2006 (Age 25) - 12-7, 3.91, 189 K in 198 IP

He also pitched pretty well in one third of a season in 2002, after being called up from the minors in July.

Myers' only bad year as a starter was 2004.

Anonymous - I'm with you: I feel pretty good about Myers. I also thought he was injured before last year but I don't think he was. I really like the Hamels/Myers 1/2. Both are young, and both have good stuff. Myers used to let his emotions get the better of him sometimes as a starter but he showed a lot of maturity last year. I really think he'll have a good, if not great, season.

Trackboy1 - I've also wondered why Hernandez is still out there. He has that reputation as an innings eater which would be good for Phils. But when I dug into all the scouting reports on him the consensus seems to be that he's definitely on the decline. Both his strikeouts and innings pitched have dropped in recent years and they've dropped consistently. If the Phils could get him for a year, he'd still seem to be heads above Eaton, but I don't know if maybe he's holding out for lots of years like Lohse. I'd also take Lohse if he didn't want so many years.

If Kendrick proves early on that 2007 wasn't a fluke I'll be much less concerned about getting a #3 type pitcher.

Flash in '08 ??
How come....did he get a sholder transplant ?
In October it was reported that he had serious problem which was possibly career ending !!

Hey, maybe Gillick is just collecting a shitload of arms and figuring they'll take the best bunch to come out of spring training.
Does the Mets or Braves pitching really scare anybody? People talk about Colorado and Arizona's pitching but if the Phils just got a couple of hits last year in the series, they'd have made a game of it. Would having better pitching in the Colorado series have made a difference? Whats better? losing 1 to nothing, losing 4 to nothing or winning 5 to 4? Pitching didn't lose it for them in the playoffs last year, lack of hitting did.

Hey, maybe Gillick is just collecting a shitload of arms and figuring they'll take the best bunch to come out of spring training.
Does the Mets or Braves pitching really scare anybody? People talk about Colorado and Arizona's pitching but if the Phils just got a couple of hits last year in the series, they'd have made a game of it. Would having better pitching in the Colorado series have made a difference? Whats better? losing 1 to nothing, losing 4 to nothing or winning 5 to 4? Pitching didn't lose it for them in the playoffs last year, lack of hitting did.

i see that lohse still isn't signed. has the market dried up for him? still wouldn't mind bringing him back if would now consider a deal with less years.

Must not be that much to say about Phillies pitching. Is that just a sense of futility on the part of Phillies fans? Is this just more of the same? Must we go into the 2008 season on a wing and a prayer?

Do we know that we are going to be good or just hope we are going to be good? When will we know?

Just some thoughts.

No predictions for Myers as a starter and Kendrick? How long does it take to make these simple little predictions. This is a joke to say the least. The heck with the predictions, let's get a decent starter to add to Hamels, Myers, Kendrick and Moyer. C'mon, let's get real here. We still need a starter. C'mon Amaro Jr and Gil. Work some magic with the remaining dough.