I'm still betting against it.
I still think there's too much of a difference of opinion between the Phillies, who offered $7 million, and Howard, who wants $10 million. And like I wrote in previous posts and stories, Howard has not agreed to a contract each of the previous two seasons. And last season he took a lower offer to send a message to the Phillies. Howard has shown he will stick to his guns, so unless the Phillies approach the $10 million range, I think they're headed to a hearing.
*
Phil Sheridan and Bob Ford offer their take on Riffing with the Writers.
*
Jimmy Rollins said last year the Phillies were the team to beat. He said in November he thinks the Phillies will win 100 games.
I think Rollins believed what he said in January.
I think he was just having fun in November.
Nevertheless, the media just fell in love with it and asked some teammates about it yesterday at Citizens Bank Park. It's fun to talk about, but I don't think Rollins really meant it. But I'll have to ask him when I see him next month in Clearwater.
Maybe he'll tell me to take a long walk off a short pier. He wouldn't be the first athlete to tell me that.
*
I hopped on the radio yesterday with Harry Mayes and Jamie Yannacone (aka The Fanatics) at Sports Radio 950. Listen to the podcast here.
*
Abraham Nunez signed a minor-league contract with the Brewers.
Pat Gillick
Comments (101)
They should make a new (better) offer to Howard at about 8.5-9 million for a year. If Howard doesn't take it, frankly I think that will make him look bad. At 7 million the Phillies look cheap(hard to believe that players are getting this kind of money. The most Babe Ruth ever got was around 50 thousand).
Gotta love Jimmy Rollins. He's a great ambassador for the Phils. Nothing wrong with a little over confidence. If you can't believe you can do it, you probably wont.
GO PHILS!!!!!!!!
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Posted on January 23, 2008 12:01
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Posted by Broad Street Bootlegs | January 23, 2008 12:12 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 12:12
The Phillies are an unproductive and misguided organiztion. Look at the rockies they gave their shortshort one yr of service 5-yrs 30 mil. Fair deal. It gives the player and the team certainty.
Lets state the obvious they were willing to wrap up Utley(white) and won't give Howard(black) a simple 3 yr 36 million dollar deal to finish out his lock up period. He is going to make 34 million minimum regardless.
If they offered him that and he refuses to take it then they win.Offering him 9 million this year as the previous poster suggested after paying him 900k last year means nothing.
THE PHILLIES ARE A RACIST ORGANIZATION. The mainstream media refuses to talk about the obvious.
Posted by Truth | January 23, 2008 12:16 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 12:16
Jim Thome (a great guy) got a ton of money to come in here and play first-base and put up ryan howard type numbers and he was in his 30's.he had his times when he would strike out alot and he was not a defensive gem either, he'd still be here if it wern't for howard too. howard is 27 or 28, has huge power to all parts of the field, and he is pretty much a younger jim thome. why is it so hard for them to give him the money that thome got if you plan on keeping howard for the long run. he showed us that he can produce good results, yet we have thieves like garcia, Eaton, Barajas, helms, who get good money and none of them, except maybe garcia were previous superstars in their careers. The phillies did the right thing with Utley and rollins and even Brett Myers...so lock up your nucleus to a long term deal and don't be cheap on it just because he can't be a free agent until 2011 because that would not only hurt his chances of sticking around then, but it gives our organization a bad name and others would not wanna play for us and then we start to look like the O's and the Nats. however if you sign howard and hamels eventually to a long term deal then maybe other guys like Miguel Cabrera, Manny ramierez, and Mike loewell would have signed with us...ok maybe not those players in the future but players like those guys.
Posted by Anonymous | January 23, 2008 12:23 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 12:23
To the "Truth"...hmmm, the baseball is white, the bases are white, the base lines are white, maybe the entire GAME of baseball is racist.
Seriously, we unfortunately have a team that runs itself like a business and like a business you tend to pay more for items you don't have (free agents) and less for ones you do until you have to.
Committing to winning a championship is not always the best "business" decision and until they get over that hump, we're the "losers".
Posted by philly4ever | January 23, 2008 12:54 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 12:54
It is obvious Howard will just end up unhappy so I say for fun lets see what he can get. I mean, don't you think the Yankees would salivate over the possibility of an A-Rod/Howard 1-2 punch. Maybe we could get 2 of Hughes, Joba or Kennedy and some other prospects. Then our rotation would be young and loaded for the next 5 years and we'd still have Rollins & Utley to anchor the offense. Lets face it, the team will contend and give us an exciting Sept. this year, but they just don't have the arms. Now the rotation would be set for years with Rollins and Utley in their primes and after a year for these arms to mature we could be really dangerous. You could also probably get the Red Sox in the mix and get a combo of Youk/Ellsbury/Bucholz. I think its worth a call at least
Posted by Len | January 23, 2008 12:56 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 12:56
Hey, "Truth," how would you feel if the Phils made the same deal to some kid named "Kevin Stocker" after he saved their '93 Season? How happy are you that they made "Burrel" happy after one good season? And if I wanted to see T shirt advertisements, this is the last place I'd look. This is 2008 and "Race" is still an issue in many places with many heads, this is not about Thome (white) an Howard (black). Thome had the service time that Howard doesn't. If Howard had trouble living on last years salary, what would he do in the real world, on a John Doe salary?
Posted by Bench | January 23, 2008 12:56 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 12:56
you don't give howard the money because you don't have too. look at utley's contract is that all he is worth on the open market? Hell no. In fact I would argue that utley is worth a lot more than howard and not because he is white. Utley is a second baseman and his numbers far outpace every other 2B in the game. Howard puts up great numbers but nothing significantly better than most other 1B.
And to answer the people who say they are cheap to offer him $7 million...its called a negotiation. You don't open up with your drop dead number. Just like howard doesn't expect to get $10 mil (if thats his minimum sign number he should fire his agent) the phils don't expect him to agree to $7mil. they both are probably giving themselves $1mil to a $1.5 mill cushion.
Posted by Bryan | January 23, 2008 12:57 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 12:57
Truth,
You are an idiot! If I remember the Phillies locked up Rollins for good money and if you don't remember Abreu made a damn good chunk of change here in Philly too. Tom Gordon got a deal well over what he should have gotten so don't pull the race card, you look like a damn fool. If you haven't noticed, none of those players are white. Don't try to speak about something you don't know about and stop trying to make it into a race thing. Utley proved himself with consistency over the last few years and earned his contract. I love Howard but we still don't know if he's an above or below .300 hitter and I don't know about you but I'd like to see him cut down on strikeouts and try hitting a little more opposite field to keep defenses honest. Utley fields his position very well, can steal bases, hit home runs, RBIs, and for average. I'm not saying Howard doesn't deserve his fair share of the cash but he's not going anywhere until after 2011! I say they will give him another year to evaluate exactly who he is as a player and then pay him accordingly. Don't compare him to Utley because he has he has a year less experience then Utley did when he got his contract. I'm a hispanic male with some black in my bloodline and I don't go around throwing the race card everywhere, you HAVE to look at the business side of things too. Whether you like it or not the Phillies are in a business and in business you try to maximize what you can with what you have. That means get the production while you can for cheap, then when the time is right you step up and pay your top performers.
Posted by Anonymous | January 23, 2008 1:30 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 13:30
Great post by Anonymous, Truth is just a Honkey Hater
Posted by Truth hates Honkies | January 23, 2008 2:13 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 14:13
my comment has nothing to do with race, it's about service time...how can some teams throw millions of dollars away on a player coming from japan who never swung a bat or threw a pitch in the american mlb, but we say howard doesn't have enough service time despite playing in the majors for 2 1/2 years.
Posted by Anonymous | January 23, 2008 2:39 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 14:39
Boy, that TRUTH is an idiot, isn't he? He should be called "GOOF." The Phils should trade Howard while he is still a hot commodity and really get some talented young players. Any team would be willing to give up two young pitching talents and a hitter. We could bring back Travis Lee for a pittance and he can really field. If all doesn't work out, then the Phils should move the franchise in the middle of the night to North Carolina.
Posted by Tavian | January 23, 2008 2:41 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 14:41
whats with the last few articles in the Zo Zone? Why is everyone turning everything into racial tension and hate? We have enough hating of some of the players(eaton,helms,garcia,burrell for some reason) to go around, and that should be plenty!!
Posted by clinton, nj | January 23, 2008 2:51 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 14:51
good point anonymous!
Posted by clinton, nj | January 23, 2008 2:55 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 14:55
J-Roll can always fall back by saying that the 100 wins would include 11 playoff wins
Posted by KoolEarl | January 23, 2008 3:30 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 15:30
Did I just read a post comparing Ryan Howard to Kevin Stocker after 1993 and Pat Burrell after his breakout year, another saying Howard does not put up significantly better numbers than other 1B, and a third saying we need another year to evaluate him as a player?
The same Ryan Howard who was ROY despite playing half a season, MVP in his first full big league season with 58 home runs (which I would say is significantly better than every other 1B), then had a "down year" last year and hit 47 HR and drove in almost 140 runs. Strikeout-prone or not, those are special numbers. Special numbers put up by a special player. Special players call for special treatment.
I believe in the system of service time and arbitration, but I also when you come across an special player, you do everything in your power to treat him that way.
Last year's 100 k lowball is already proving costly, and the gap is widening.
Posted by Bob | January 23, 2008 3:41 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 15:41
For those who think the $7 mil offer is cheap--I believe that is the largest sum ever offered to a first year arbitration eligible player. (Someone will certainly correct me if I'm wrong.) So that is some special money. You can make all kinds of arguments that Howard has the most homers/RBI's at this point in his career in MLB history, but I think he's also up there in strike outs as well. And he's not a great fielder right now, let's not forget his shortcomings. It may well end up with him hearing his short-comings at the arbitration table. If there's any chance for him to improve, these facts should come as no surprise to him, so I'm not overly worried about his feelings being hurt. Don't forget, one of the knocks on Utley was he was all bat and only subpar defensively. He worked his tail off to improve--can/will Howard?
It also remains to be seen whether he can adjust to the pitcher adjustments. His MVP year, pitchers didn't set out to pitch around him. Last year, they got the memo, and he was undisciplined too often. Despite his final numbers, he was a hole/rally killer in the lineup for too long a strech. Will he be content to lead the league in walks? Perhaps the Phils are content to wait another year to negotiate up to Howard's asking price for a long-term deal, to avoid being stuck with Burrell-like contract with Burrell-like performance.
To those fans who say give him whatever he asks, that's just crazy talk--as someone above said, this is a negotiation. The collective bargaining agreement is designed to protect teams from overpaying for a flash in the pan--let's not encourage the Phils to throw away that protection. If Howard can again hit for power and average, like he did his MVP year, they should give him every penny he asks for. They still have time to find out. Trouble is, last year, and he didn't, so there's reason for skepticism. If they give him the money and they're wrong, will they be unable to afford to buy out Hamels' arbitration years down the road?
Posted by Another Anon | January 23, 2008 4:00 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 16:00
I think Rollins isn't kidding around. Zolecki thinks Rollins is joking about 100 wins but I'm not so sure. Howard was hurt much of the early season and the Phils had a ton of injuries. Their pitching staff was particularly hard hit. Didn't Manuel use a team record number of pitchers last season. I can't see that happening two years in a row. Their bullpen is a lot more solid than at the start of last season and Myers is a quality starter. I thought he had a shot at 17 to 20 wins last year before injuries forced the team to move him into a closer role. Think about that. How bad are things when you have to move maybe your best most experienced pitcher into the closer role. What a hole that creates in your starting rotation. Yet the Phils still managed to win 89 games. I may be the only guy in the area to think Chad Durbin can take over a starting role should Eaton or Kendrick fail but I think he can and I think he can be pretty effective (ala.Lohse). If everyone stays healthy (esp. Howard, Utley & Rollins) than I think the Phils pulverize the NL east and win between 95 and 100 games. Remember, the Marlins and Nationals should pretty much suck. The Phils gotta win every series with those two teams. They have to beat up the bad teams. Bad teams mean bad pitching and the Phils gotta hammer that bad pitching.
Posted by johnny p | January 23, 2008 4:01 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 16:01
Why would the Phils committ to 3 year - $36M for Howard? There is no benefit for the Phils as that is likely what it will cost them on a year-to-year basis without the risk of Howard getting seriously injured and having to pay him a large sum of money to sit on his ass (see Mike Lieberthal). Then Howard would walk away to the highest bidder anyway. If the Phils are going to do a long-term deal - it would have to be 7 years and $100M range (like Pujols deal). In fact, if Howard's agent proposed that deal right now - I bet the Phils would happily cut him a check tomorrow.
Posted by Dan K | January 23, 2008 4:04 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 16:04
I'd actually like to see this go to arbitration, as long as it can be done sans animosity. Until then, all discussion from either side is merely negotiating ploy. When forced to put down a final number for an arbiter, both sides get much more realistic, and we will end up with a much more accurate idea of what Howard's worth REALLY is. And often, post-submittal, the two sides settle for a number smack dab in the middle of the two submittals, pre-empting the arbiter's decision.
Regarding this race stuff: my suspicion is that there is only one person who keeps saying the Phils are racist, using different handles each time. Note how he/she always uses the same language, format etc. (including incorrect punctuation) in the diatribes. The Phils certainly had a history of being one of the last teams to embrace diversity, but that was decades ago; now, they are actually in the forefront of diversity both on the field and in the management chain.
So, to that person who insists on continuing this line of discussion (and who I suspect is quite racist him/herself), I suggest you get your head out of your past.
Posted by Marty McPhillie | January 23, 2008 4:23 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 16:23
The Philadelphia Phillies are cheap bastards and lowballers. The team history of racism carried right on into the 90's.
Chase Utley was a part-time player in 2003 and 2004, then played full time in 2005 and 2006, at which time he received a 7 year, $85 million contract. Ryan Howard played part-time in 2004 and 2005 and then played full-time in 2006 and 2007. The difference? Rookie of the Year (in half a season), MVP (in his first full season), and African American. Where's the contract Utley got?
Hmmmmmmmmmmm.....fellas.
Posted by Nick from the Northeast | January 23, 2008 4:41 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 16:41
Newsflash....For the first time this century, more white cars were manufactured in 2007 than those in any other color, according to DuPont’s most recent color study.
The Auto Industry is racist too!
Let's get real, Phillies aren't racist, they haven't been to smart in doing big deals. Howard presents an interesting case for them. He could be a very, very special player or he could level off qucikly. They have a year or so to see. I think with Utley, you see what you're getting for the next 5-7 years. HR hitters, w/high SO totals have bigger down side. I think last year they were using Pujols as a salary measure. Similarly, if they agree on 8 or 9 million, won't that make him the highest player ever, 2 yrs into their career?
Posted by philly4ever | January 23, 2008 4:52 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 16:52
Could it be that Utley hits for average and power without the strikeouts, has worked to improve his fielding from adequate to flawless and comes to camp in shape?
Sorry Nick, I stand with the Phils on this one...he duplicates last year, I will join you in the front of the line screaming for them to do a long term deal (plus Pat the bat's money will be off the books).
If Ryan wants to get mad at someone, he needs to call Donald Fehr and bitch about the system; I beleive the Phil's are on the right course THIS time.
Your claim of racism into the 90's is certainly your opinion but last I checked, it is 2008. Race has nothing to do with it.
Posted by jimmymack | January 23, 2008 4:56 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 16:56
Dear Ryan,
Your Phillies fans feel that you, unlike Chase Utley, have a lot more to prove before you can get paid. They haven't been very impressed with either your Rookie of the Year or your MVP. Apparently they think that 47 homeruns and 136 RBI's is a minor contribution. When it comes to the salary you deserve for 2008 their conversation turns to too many strikeouts and your fielding. It would appear that most support the Phillies lowballing you.
Some fans have suggested that racially biased attitudes have focused them upon your shortcomings as opposed to your accomplishments. Many have convinced themselves that their attitudes are not biased. So 28, 105 and 32, 102 get you a huge contract while 58,149 and 47, 136 do not. I'm sure you'll be consoled that these fellows who have reassured themselves and one another that their attitudes are not racially biased.
So when you hear those cheers as you circle the bases this summer you might wonder, which of these fine fellows are cheering you and which are not.
Your friend,
Jose C
Posted by JoseC | January 23, 2008 5:20 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 17:20
FOR SALE, RENT, OR TRADE:
One slightly used 28 year old 1st baseman. This man won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2005, the MVP in 2006 and in 2007 hit 47 homeruns and knocked in 136 RBI's. We have no money to pay him and the fans have weighed in that he is not worth the money. He will not be eligible for free-agency until 2011.
So because we cannot use him, please contact the PHILLIES if you would have any use for such a character. According to his own fans you don't have to pay him very much because he hasn't proven himself yet. All offers will be considered.
Posted by TonyO | January 23, 2008 5:33 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 17:33
If the Phillies are so racist, cheap, and unfair then why, last March did they give him at the time the largest salary for a player not eligible for arbitration? It just business people for gods sake. I love Ryan Howard as much as the next guy but what we're seeing right now is just the business side of baseball. I'm sure in the end Ryan Howard will end up with the Phillies for years to come so just calm down please.
Posted by Tyler | January 23, 2008 6:01 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 18:01
Dear Ryan,
How can you feel that the Phillies are so racist, cheap, and unfair. The gave you (you didn't earn it) the largest salary for a player not eligible for arbitration. It's just business for gods sake. I love you as much as the next guy but you're not worth it. No other team would want you. You should be grateful to play for the Phillies for what they give you.
Some day you'll be happy when they give you more money.
Calm down please.
Love,
Tyler
Posted by Tyler | January 23, 2008 6:09 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 18:09
Glad to see my post generated some life around here.
To the ppl that compared R. Howard to Kevin Stocker, Bobby Abreu, Pat "the bat" or J. Roll; could you be anymore misguided. Has any of these filled the stadium? Has any of these made the team money? Have any of these generated the excitement that "the big man", as your announcers refer to Howard, generated? He is making this team money, in the business world when this happens people receive just compensation. In baseball's anti-trust violating world they get bilked/used up. It is wrong. It was wrong when your worst enemy T.O. wanted a new contract b/c if his broken ankle, that he so vigorously rehabbed, to come back for the superbowl; would have been irrepairable he would have been cut. He would not have been honored with so much as a good bye. Yes, he signed a contract but that contract only had to be honored by one side.
I blame the player unions for allowing such fool hardy rules.
So no it is not only Racism which you better believe plays a part here in Philadelphia, but is the unfair system, as well the Phillies being a classless organization unlike the Rockies who rewarded a potential Kevin Stockeresque player but in the process showed loyalty.
Posted by Truth | January 23, 2008 6:39 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 18:39
Do you realize Colorado gave him $5 million a year? Its not like it was a $10 mil a year deal.. Its apples and oranges. And nobody ever accused the Rockies of being great baseball minds either - maybe it was a huge mistake, which we know in the case of Pat Burrell, the fans would complain about for years to come. And with Howard, why should they offer him more than $7 mil? So in 3 years his price tag is easily $20 mil? This also sets the basis for his price tag down the road, so why should they price themselves out by paying him too much now? If they just give him $10 mil now, when he has his next arbitration hearing, the amount just builds from there. Its smart business. Do we know what kind of long term deal has been offered and refused? NO! Maybe they offered him 7 years at $100 mil - is that low? Nope. Maybe if Utley refused the long term deal the Phils offered him, they would be in the same spot with him, but he accepted it. And now people complain that the treatment isn't the same just because one player accepted a long term offer and the other hasn't. Its ridiculous. Its just the business of baseball.
Posted by Tim | January 23, 2008 6:53 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 18:53
Tim, if the Phillies offered a deal like you mention, why do you not think they would not have allowed it to leak?
As far as the shortstop in Colorado; it speaks to the issue of fairness and loyalty. They could have paid him 600k, do you even realize what you are saying? He had one yr of service. Please read up your facts before posting.
No, the Rockies may not be great baseball minds but they whupped the Phillies in 3 last year with a minimal payroll and certainly could have made that arguement but they didn't. THEY WERE FAIR.
Posted by Truth | January 23, 2008 7:01 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 19:01
Or the Rockies were stupid.. And I know my facts, Truth - whatever you think you're telling. No team gives a player that kind of deal after one year - so its not smart business - loyalty or not. Maybe the Phillies don't leak numbers because they are trying to keep the negotiations where they belong, between the player and team. The fact is, you don't know what has been offered to Howard beyond this one year deal, but we know a long term deal was offered and refused - so lets not pretend he is getting treated worse than other players.
Posted by Tim | January 23, 2008 7:09 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 19:09
Until baseball removes the notion of "guaranteed contracts" contract inequalities will continue to exist. That is why there is this stupid arbitration process based on service time. Read these posts Jose, Tony and the Truth. Nobody hear said Ryan Howard is not worth $10M or $15M a year. What they are saying is its a much bigger risk to sign him to a 5 year deal at that amount. And the Phillies do not have to pay him that much, because the labor agreement that HE is apart of dictates so. So when Ryan is 36 and hitting .220 with 10 HRs, but making $20M a year under a contract he signed 4 years earlier - all of these "inequalities in pay" things will balance out.
You want to point to racism - but the three most beloved players on this team are JRoll, Utley and Howard (Rowand was a 4th but he is gone). Packed stadiums (with mostly young, caucasion crowds) cheered like crazy for those guys. We gave Pat Burrell nothing but grief these last few years. So before you make ridiculous statements such as the fans don't want Howard - take your head out of your f'n ass.
Oh and if you want to compare numbers - consider this - Utley made $500k the year before he was finally eligible for arbitration (compared to $900k for Ryan). Utley's salary last year was "ONLY" $4.5M - compared to the $7-10M for Ryan will make in his 3rd season. And Utley will "ONLY" make $7.5M next year.
Posted by Dan K | January 23, 2008 7:15 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 19:15
The Phillies cannot afford to lose Howard. Period. Pay the man. Sign him to a long-term deal as soon as possible. He's a .290-50-130 guy for years to come.
He's a younger, NL version of Manny Ramirez -- but with a brain. Sign him.
Then, lasso one more starter. And we're in the Fall Classic.
Posted by Eman | January 23, 2008 7:20 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 19:20
We need our resident GM expert who knows all about signing players. He will tell us the Phillies need to do nothing until after the 2011 season because the the Phillies can save money. So we should reserve judgment until the resident GM tells us the first date the Phillies should negotioate in good faith. Clearly we can get through the next four seasons and then with all the good will we have built up we can get him to sign a lowball offer.
Posted by jrquixote | January 23, 2008 7:51 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 19:51
And dont forget people, the Phils must know that when Howard keeps mashing the ball every year, his price will go up every year. So they know they will be paying biiig bucks soon enough. Its just a matter of time folks.
Posted by clinton, nj | January 23, 2008 8:36 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 20:36
1. New York Yankees $218,311,394
2. Boston Red Sox $155,402,595
3. Los Angeles Dodgers $125,581,316
4. New York Mets $120,927,727
5. Chicago Cubs $115,943,318
6. Seattle Mariners $114,367,309
7. Los Angeles Angels $111,038,577
8. Philadelphia Phillies $101,823,122
9. San Francisco Giants $101,539,796
10. Chicago White Sox $100,189,832
2007 final payroll numbers....we are right up there with the other big cities in america....so the Phils aren't being cheap anymore, they just dont always spend WISELY!!
Posted by clinton, nj | January 23, 2008 9:00 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 21:00
These record totals that are tossed out (all Pujols related) happened 4 years ago. Are these numbers that are NEVER to be increased? No inflation adjustment? Is service time and comparative salaries the ONLY things they go by?
I ask this because, if Howard can't get special consideration, then anyone( from 2009-eternity) w/o a ROY and MVP sitting on the table next to him at the negotiating table, BETTER NOT get more than $7 mil, either.
Sounds pretty unreasonale to hold a salary at that level INDEFINITELY, doesn't it? I agree, so when is it going to be o.k. to raise the bar?
Posted by steve | January 23, 2008 9:38 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 21:38
It's a business. Howard is very good, but still only 2 years MLB service and has not improved hitting or fielding. He is not Manny Ramirez. I don't blame the Phillies for taking one more long look at the kind of season Howard can put together.
The Red Sox have shown that sometimes dispassionate decisions (letting Damon, Pedro, Lowe, Millar walk) are the most prudent.
From Baseball-Reference.com:
Similar Batters
Prince Fielder
Luke Easter
Justin Morneau
Adam LaRoche
Adrian Gonzalez
Travis Hafner
Similar at age 27
Norm Cash
Cecil Fielder
Jason Bay
Jim Gentile
Mo Vaughn
Tony Clark
Ryan Klesko
Utley has improved every season in all parts of his game. Howard has not.
Posted by Joe in Haddonfield | January 23, 2008 10:02 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 22:02
It looks as if Howard won't accept any deal under $10 mil. If that's the case the Phillies will be better off signing him to a 1yr $10 offer and avoiding arbitration. What is a player supposed to think when you tell him that he isn't worth $10 mil because he strikes out too much then try to sign him long term a year later. If the Phillies can get him to agree to a 1 yr offer for less than 10 mil then great but if not just give the man his asking price and sign him to a long term deal next off-season. I think he'll be asking for more than Pujols. My guess is 7yrs $130-$150 and the Phillies would be stupid not to make that deal.
Posted by Jared in RI | January 23, 2008 10:23 PM
Posted on January 23, 2008 22:23
Bob,
I have 2 words for you, Albert Pujols. Keep in mind that the man who could arguably be THE best baseball player on earth didn't get an $100 million extension until before the 2004 season. You're talking about 3 years of service. His rookie year looked like this- .329/.403/.610 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 37 home runs and 130 RBI. His second year- .314/.394/.561 with 34 homers and 127 RBIs. His third year- .359/.439/.667 with 43 home runs and 124 RBI. He may not have hit 50 home runs but he's consistently and is extremely tough to strike out. The closest that he's come to 100Ks was his rookie season at 93Ks. Howard's been over .300 once in his career so far and his strike outs have gone up each year.
Here's a note for you Howard has a career 493 strike outs in 1461 at bats, Pujols has 452Ks in 4054 at bats. Career-wise Pujols' average, OBP, and SLG are better than Howards. Pujols got his 7 year $100 million after his 3rd full season, give the Phils one more year. If they don't give him a contract for about 7 years and $90 million if he performs well for another season. I chose Pujols because he is THE mega star first baseman in the league and a model of consistency. I love Ryan and what he brings to this team but he's yet to be consistent except for a high amount homers, rbi's and Ks. Pujols has been consistent in every category every year and is a constant MVP threat. So yes, if the Cardinals had to evaluate Pujols for three seasons before giving him that monster contract then the Phillies should be able to do the same for Howard.
Posted by Anonymous | January 24, 2008 12:22 AM
Posted on January 24, 2008 00:22
If the Phillies weren't such cheap bastards trying to lowball one of their best players we wouldn't be having this debate. Ryan Howard is an MVP who knocks in boatloads of runs and puts a lot of butts in seats not to mention money in the pockets of the owners.
Time to stop making excuses for the cheap bastards and pay up a guy who is one of the most potent and feared power hitters in the game. The man has got the numbers to justify $10 million.
Posted by Matt from Media | January 24, 2008 6:27 AM
Posted on January 24, 2008 06:27
It's hard to beleive that people keep ignoring that the system (arbitration and service time) negotiated by the most powerful player's union in the known universe, is the crux of these arguments.
For every player that outperforms his salary, there are many more that clearly steal money long term, does anyone disagree?
Guys, the Phillies are playing in the system and would be fools not to continue. I have no problem if Howard gets his 10 million, but suggesting he is getting screwed because of race or cheapness is just crazy. As many have rightly pointed out, it's business and he is trapped by his own unions negotiated and agreed upon rules.
Look, I'm not a big fan of this front office either, but I really think the offer is in line (I would have made it 8 million) and the Phil's are correct, as much as it pains me to say it.
His parent's, according to reports, think he should get A-Rod numbers...if he puts up 6 more seasons like the last two, fine. But he is a super two player and anything from 7-10 is fair.
Posted by jimmymack | January 24, 2008 9:23 AM
Posted on January 24, 2008 09:23
Thanks JM, and others, for a little clarity.
The "racism" point is just silly. Does it still exist today, in every facet of life? Absolutely. But here the Phillies are much more concerned with the color green than black. And they should be.
Does anybody not think Howard has the potential to be another Scott Rolen? As I've said many times... what agent is he working on at the moment?
Plus there's the little (actually big) issue of his conditioning; this will be a make-or-break year for him. He comes to camp in the shape he did last year and I'm picketing Hometown Buffet. On the defensive side, if they awarded errors for the numbers of times he mangled a potential double-play (but still got one out), the strikeout record wouldn't have been the only dubious mark broken.
And please, please - again. Huge RBI and power numbers last year. Yes. But the guy was a liablility at the plate for more than half the year. We all watched the games, right? Dare I say "Abreuesque?"
Nice guy, great smile, though his parents' feelings I can, frankly, do without. I'm with the Philles on this one. 9 seems fair.
Posted by John in LA | January 24, 2008 9:48 AM
Posted on January 24, 2008 09:48
Trust me, I'm concerned about the Ryan Howard contract situation, but the fact that Abraham Nunez will no long be a Phillie makes me joyous. No More No-Hit!!!
Posted by GM-Carson | January 24, 2008 10:51 AM
Posted on January 24, 2008 10:51
could this story really be a bigger non-issue? howard is phillies property (boy that sentence should make all of you who believe this is a race issue smile...a black man being the property of some old rich white folks) until 2011. If we sign pedro feliz (a favorite of most posters here) to a 7 year deal and he wins an MVP in the 1st and has a major batting average and strike out turn to the nagtive as well as missing a month of the season in year 2 all the while putting up good HR and RBI numbers, would we be screaming that we should tear up the remaining 5 years of the contract and give him a new deal? The answer is no. So, why are we saying we should do this with howard?
Posted by Bryan | January 24, 2008 12:21 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 12:21
I think it was the Boston GM that said he'd rather trade a player a year early than a year too late. I think an idea worth considering is trading Howard for a front line pitcher and some prospects. Howard has DH written all over him. Send him to the AL for some great pitching. I'd pull the trigger on it and take the heat. It would last until the fans realize the pitching got them farther in the playoffs than a home run hitter would have.
Before you flame me, what would you rather have if you couldn't have both, another front line starter or a bad fielding clean up hitter? Got to give up something of value to get something of value.
Posted by different perspective | January 24, 2008 12:36 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 12:36
The "racism" point is just silly. (snip) But here the Phillies are much more concerned with the color green than black. And they should be. John In LA
Most sensible post of the thread. Today's winner!
Posted by jimmymack | January 24, 2008 12:55 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 12:55
Does anyone long for the old days, when the winter talk was trades, or potential trades? Everyone has their own opinion about the Howard situation, but the fact is, none of us has any control of it. I can say "give him the money," but I'm not going to be able to spend any of it. In fact, it will probably cost me money in the end, in the form of higher ticket and concession prices. Getting angry over money you and I will never see starts to become less about sports and more in-tune to the Business section of the paper. I'm not gonig to sit here and say Ryan Howard is or is not worth the long term contract. But history, baseball history, has many examples of "flame-out." How many remember Bobby Bonilla's years in Pittsburgh, cashing in on FA in NY and doing nothing? Every long-term deal is a gamble, just as much as rejecting one.
Posted by Bench | January 24, 2008 1:40 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 13:40
Interestingly, no one here has commentedon Conlin's article today.
Surprisingly, he be little's the Phillies thinking in comparison to the Rockies. Amazingly, he insinuates that the Phillies are an organization that has no clue.
Either way, I'm not going on and on about this today, I just thought that it is very interesting that no one mentioned Conlin's article that backed everything I said yesterday; except the racial aspect.
Bottom line is the Phillies are as classless today as they were when they covered up the fact that Brett Myers publicly beat his wife and dragged her down the street by her hair.
How quickly you fans forget!
Posted by Truth | January 24, 2008 3:12 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 15:12
i seem to recall brett pitching a great game the 2nd time out after that.
And why blame the phillies when brett's wife is the one responsible for her relationship with her husband.
Posted by Bryan | January 24, 2008 3:25 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 15:25
Bryan, you are a loser; actually you are beyond description.
Posted by Truth | January 24, 2008 3:33 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 15:33
Conlin always belittles the Phillies, no matter what the issue is, so you have to take his opinion with a grain of salt. If the Phillies had given Howard everything he wanted, I'm sure Conlin would have written an article arguing that they made a mistake - that is what he does.
Posted by Tim | January 24, 2008 3:48 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 15:48
truth the first part was funny and the second part is quite true.
the phillies are a business they act in their best intrest which hopefully are in line with societys morale principles. But, for every game you go to that myers started you proved that you don't care that he allegedly hit his wife. Allegedly being the key word as he was never found guilty or charged with anything.
Posted by Bryan | January 24, 2008 3:51 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 15:51
Bryan the last time I was at a Brett Myers game he gave up 3 homers in a row and completely melted down. Since your memory of Myers starts is so good lets see if you remember that one.
Once again I'm not here to discuss Myers, his pathetic display after the Phillies won the penant reminded me of a overweight, overgrown, sloppy ambecile of a man. In that sense you are right, why the hell would his wife want to be with a loser like that.
The fact that Phillies allowed such a raucous display; shows their classlessness.
say what you will about Steinbrenner but he his organization and his players exude class.
Posted by Truth | January 24, 2008 3:58 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 15:58
ok good truth stop posting and go join a yankees fan site, since they are a class orginazation.
Posted by Bryan | January 24, 2008 4:36 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 16:36
Colorado made those deals to save some money... Holiday would make more than $23M in arbitration over the next 2 years - and Tulowitski decided to take $31M guaranteed then risk having a few off years. Also keep in mind - both players are not giving up much in terms of free agency.
And in case you forgot - Howard was offered a multi-year deal last year - he declined the offer. Don't you think the Phils would prefer to lock Howard up in the $12-15M per year range as opposed to risk having to pay him huge sums of money in the long haul? Howard obviously wants to get paid like he is a free agent - and the Phils want to save a few bucks for taking on unnecessary risk - so unless either side bends a little, a long-term deal isn't going to happen until Howard is in his last year of arbitration.
And you want to talk about being underpaid - Hamels made $400k last year - while Eaton made over $7M. Good thing Hamels isn't a minority...
Posted by Dan K | January 24, 2008 5:13 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 17:13
the question the phillies need to answer concerning howard is.....do we have a moe vaughn or a david ortiz.......as far as the phils being a racist organization,ive been a phils fan for over 35 years and have never seen a hint of racism..poor management?yes..cautious with money,yes,burned by long term contracts?yes..racist ?no
Posted by william | January 24, 2008 6:35 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 18:35
It's a good point about how much Howard strikes out. Duly noted. But his numbers still were awesome and thus...
He was Rookie of the Year.
He was MVP.
He may well have been MVP last year but was hurt in May. It's a feather in the Phils' cap that Rollins (who is black, by the way, and happy and well-paid) won, and Utley was a contender too. What an infield! My god.
You cannot replace Howard. Period. If the Phils' strategy is to save money on him for the next year or two and then pay up -- and if it works; if he's not ticked off and leaves -- OK. Still, I'd sign him long-term now.
We could trade him for a Santana and watch Santana go 15-14 too, or blow out is elbow in his second year here. If -- he'd waive his no-trade to pitch at our park...
Posted by Eman | January 24, 2008 9:34 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 21:34
Anon,
Hate to break it to you, but he's played three years already...ROY/MVP/bad year (47, 140). The Pujols comparison is a good one...Pujols is obviously the better overall hitter, but he can't touch Ryan power-wise. If Pujols, widely considered one of the top three hitters in the game, is the comparison, how come so many people on here are knocking Ryan?
Fielding? At 1B? You take Mientkiewicz, give me Howard.
But, he strikes out too much, right? You would prefer a few more ground balls I guess, which would be fantastic with men on base, as the one thing he is not is fast, so let's have him hit into some DP's, right. Strikeouts are the most overrated stat in the game.
To the guy who says Howard has not improved every year like Utley has, HE HIT 57 HR in HIS SECOND SEASON...kind of tough to improve on that, no? He would have had 50 last year without the injury.
Adam LaRoche? Adrian Gonzalez? Honestly? How many brain cells are you lacking to use those names in the same sentence as Howard.
He has proven to be an exceptional player, and what do you do with exceptional players. You make exceptions for them.
Posted by Bob | January 24, 2008 11:13 PM
Posted on January 24, 2008 23:13