The Zo Zone

Todd,

Where is James coming up with these predictions? Past seasons? Production? So Taguchi is a career .283 hitter and Christ Coste (although only a few years under his belt) is career .309, so why such the low projection? Ruiz, although shows signs of pop, seems like a catcher that is going to stay around the .260-.265 avg. What makes James think he's going to jump 20 odd points? I just feel like these numbers are kind of irrelevant...I enjoy your work very much...This blog is my number one source for Phillies news...thank you

That's a way cool picture of Ryan Howard swinging the bat.

Barring an injury, one would think Victorino would produce more than the projected 25 SB.

Tom- I agree. He had what? 37 last year? I know James factors injuries too but he had 37 when he was hurt and missed a month or so last year.

Bill James' statistical gnomes think Ry Ho and Pat Burrell will each be able to leg out a triple? I'm waiting for that with bated breath.

I think James is selling Utley a bit short.

Phills just sent Roberson to the O's.

I think James is selling Rollins a bit short too. I would expect his numbers to come back a little but he has them dropping a lot.

WOWSERS...I think Bill James is hitting the Red Bull too hard. I'm with the above posters, these projections are bogus. Utley at .303?

Did we throw in a pair of sunglasses in the trade with Roberson?

Pitchers and catchers report in 43 days, Happy New Year.

Burrell has eleven career triples, more than one per season. Howard has three career triples, equal to one per season.

Had Roberson's star fallen so low that all they could get was a bag of balls (OK, probably several hundred bags; still...)? I understand why it was time to move him, but I'd have thought they could have at least gotten a couple of organizational players or one younger potential prospect for him. But maybe that just demonstrates what little I know...

Hey j-mack! nice to see you back. The Phils will smack the cover off the ball this year!!

I believe Chase Utley will have a better year than what Bill James predicts with over 30 homers, and Jimmy Rollins will break the .300 mark as a hitter. Dobbs will hit 12 homers and Werth will hit 15 dingers. But, I am an eternal optimist. Victorino will hit over .285,
with 15 homers and near 50 stolen bases.

I believe Chase Utley will have a better year than what Bill James predicts with over 30 homers, and Jimmy Rollins will break the .300 mark as a hitter. Dobbs will hit 12 homers and Werth will hit 15 dingers. But, I am an eternal optimist. Victorino will hit over .285,
with 15 homers and near 50 stolen bases.

What?! The Orioles didn't give us Bedard straight up for Roberson?

I know the outfield is crowded by I was thinking Roberson would be the speed player filling in, replacing Bourn at some level.

I'm betting Utley will come through bigger than James' numbers. Rollins should but he might have that MVP down year.

There is absolutely no better image than Ryan Howard waiting to smack one out. I like when he gets that look where you just know he's going to punish one.

Roberson did not display much "baseball smarts," if you ask me. I was thrilled to hear he was traded. I still miss what Bourne gave us off the bench, but despite his speed, I don't think Roberson had what it took to make up that difference. Taguchi should be a good pickup along those lines.

I'd really like to know James' predictions for other NL east players to get a feel of how he predicts players potential numbers.
It's no secret the Phils are gonna hit. Some guys like Utley and Rollins do seem a little low. Utley is just spookey though. Every time I watch him I'm surprised when he doesn't do something spectacular. He's really special. Rollins is in his peak years. So is Utley for that matter. Here's a sure bet: the combo of Howard, Utley and Rollins will win at least one World Series. It'll happen in the next three years.
As always it's all about pitching. The Phils won't really know what they have until about the end of April. Spring training is now great indicator of what you've got once the bell rings. That holds true with hitting also.
The key thing is the Phillies really believe they should win. When Rollins made his prediction last year I'm not sure how many guys believed it. Now I'll bet right now most guys expect to go to the post season. They feel like they're just better than the Mets and Braves.

Im gonna miss Bournes speed. I liked watching him run. He is soooo fast.Although he wasnt the best base stealer, but another year under Lopes mentoring and he could have really 'taken off'.He will be missed! I like Taguchi in Bournes role, but he just isnt as fast. I agree with Frankenslade, Roberson is a big step down from both Taguchi and Bourne.

johnny p - I agree Utley is special. His discipline and approach at the plate is so good, and he's got that Philly blue collar work ethic.

If only Gillick could find a way to get Adrian Beltre traded here without giving up the farm. I think he is under contract for 2008 and 2009. Although he is owed aroung 28 million for the next two years, it would be money well spent. Beltre would hit 30-35 hr's playing in CBP and his defense is Gold Glove caliber. I believe if Beltre was traded here, that would be enough to put us in the World Series.

Wow. If some of these rather conservative projections are accurate in Citizens Bank park, the Phils may be in trouble.

Too many strike outs in this lineup.

Bourne and Roberson will be missed.

Is there any speed to come off the bench to manufacture a run in a close game?

I respect Mr. James as a baseball expert but was just wondering (since he makes similar predictions yearly) if there is a way to measure his past accuracy doing making these estimates. Does he himself keep track? I will check his website.

I would rather see a farm system guy like Greg Golson, 38 steals of 46 attempts, or Quint Berry, 55 steals of 73 attempts, or even Brandon Watson who was 18 of 26 come off the bench to steal a base than So Taguchi. Bourn was 19 of 22 compared to So's 7 of 11 in steals last year. But Charlie's strong point is not manufacturing runs and winning one run games close and late with strategic moves anyway. Hopefully Taguchi's pinch hitting ability will over come his 38 going on 39 year old legs.

Incredible picture of Ryan Howard...my kids take hitting lessons from Milt Thompson in the winter, and the picture is EXACTLY the swing that he teaches. I wonder how much Milt has to do with Howards success. Ironically, Burrell's swing doesn't look anything like this.

On the whole, the Phillies would be fortunate with the production James predicts. But if Rollins and Utley don't perform better than James predictions the Phillies won't be as productive as a team. Those two are the prime generators of offense.

Overall the Phillies are a bit weak from the right side of the plate. They will be vulnerable when they load up with their left handed bats against righties and then the other team pulls a switch. I suspect that will happen a lot in 2008 barring the acquisition of a big right handed batting stick at 3rd base.

Personally, I wouldn't rule out Cameron as part of a 4 man rotating outfield with lots of flexibility and another card up the sleeve come July 31st when they'll be looking for more pitching. Let's see if Gillick is shrewd enough to play one step ahead of the competition.

Aside from projecting Howard as a .300 hitter again (Bill must not have watched those bail-and-flails against lefties all of last year), the most surprising thing here is the predicted boost in production from Ruiz. I think he has the ability to double his power production from last year, but to do that and up his average 25 points...I don't know. It would be incredible to get a year like that out of the eight hole, though.

not sure what the Phils would have to offer but the White Sox just picked up another outfielder. This means they can't/won't play Josh Fields in left this year. He will play his natural position, 3rd base. No room for Joe Crede. I live in Chicago and when healthy Crede is very good 3rd baseman. If the price is right, it would be a good trade option (for one year, he is a FA after this season and Boras is his agent).

I would also like to see them add speed to come off the bench.

Cholly actually did a credibile job pinch running with Bourne last year. Boure's speed will be missed.

Howard at .303?

The Phils need someone to step up at 3rd. Production over there was a disgrace last year. With Cabrera in DET now can we not make a play for Brandon Inge?

Inge makes waaaaaay to much money, and I wouldn't want to pay him even if we were the Yanks! He just isn't worth it! I dont know how he got a big contract in the first place?!? He had one good start to a season when he hit all those dingers, otherwise, he is just average or below average. And every season he has played at least 150 games(3) his fielding percentage hasn't been higher than .960 and averaging 20 errors a year! NO THANKS!!!!.......... NEXT!!

I believe that the Phillies are poised to have a great 2008 season. However, third base and an extra starter remain a big concern for me. If we could somehow acquire a third basemen (A. Beltre, Inge, Crede, G. Atkins), our lineup would be that much better. I really like the play of Gregg Dobbs but I think he is better suited coming off the bench by adding a left handed hitter with serious pop.

Wes Helms just gives you absolutely nothing. He is very weak at the plate and average in the field. I would give him away for a bag of cracker jacks.

Another starter is badly needed. You cannot count on Adam Eaton. You might as well start the Phanatic.

My 08 Lineup (if they acquire Beltre, Atkins for 3B)

1. Rollins
2. Victorino
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Beltre/Atkins (If thier serious about a world series push)
6. Burrell (no pressure again this yr batting 6th)
7. Jenkins (20-25 homers from 7th slot is awesome)
8. Ruiz
9. Pitcher.

*This lineup could produce over 215 Homeruns!

The bullpen should be very solid, especially if they could add Otsusaka from Texas, whom Gillick was very poised to acquire last year.

I actually like the Boss T's proposal and would like to take a hit of his weed before his finishes that blunt.

Boss T, let's get Gillick and Montgomery to take a couple of hits off that blunt and maybe we can pull this off.

Keep up the good work. You have a fertile mind.

Boss T -- tell us the trade that will get us an overpaid Beltre or Atkins? Love when people say make a trade when we have no prospects.. and we still don't have pitching.

Speaking of pitching, if you want to talk about projections, let's see some pitching projections - that is where we will make/break for the playoffs.

pitching projections were in the last blog dale:

http://blogs.phillynews.com/inquirer/zozone/2007/12/phillies_pitching_2008_good_en.html

Crede sucks, just look at his OBP numbers. Plus he has a bad back and the phils were finally able to get rid of the stiff (pun intended) that played third with a bad back for the last few years...I know I don't want another guy with a bad back at third.

Helms is only going to play a part time role with dobbs. Bruntlett will be the defensive replacement. If this doesn't work gillick will upgrade during the season. There is no one available worth going after right now.

I agree that James' predictions on Utley are low. Also, no way howard hits .300 and Ruiz's numbers look a bit too inflated to me.

This team will score plenty...the rotation is going to be the problem. The phils still only have 2 decent starters (Kendrick will have a lot to prove in his second time through the league).

Pitching will determine whether or not this team goes back to the postseason. They need at least one starter, probably two. Luckily the mets and braves haven't done much this offseason.

Even a GM as crafty as Gillick can't get A. Beltre from the Mariners. Why would they give him up and how much would he cost? Inge is not a big step up. Joe Crede is interesting. How would you get him? What do the Phils have to trade except Victorino and Kendrick or a good pitching prospect? Is Crede worth that kind of a deal? That would be a panic move and there's no need to panic. Helms and Dobbs may hit. We won't really know until about May. I'd say the Phils look pretty good now and if they make another move it won't be until the trading dead line time of year. The only thing I'd break the bank for would be for a starting pitcher who would be a definite upgrade and give the Phils 3 very solid, young starters.

Maybe the possibiity of acquiring Garrett Atkins is a stretch but Adrian Beltre coud be had. I am not here to make trade proposals, I will leave that up to Gillick. Regardless, we must have a quality third basemen (see my last post).

I am not here to make rediculous trade proposals, I am simply here to state my opinions on how the Phillies could become serious world series contenders for 2008. I have yet to see a championship in my life time in this city! I am in my early 20's!

As far as the pitching staff goes, I think we should seriously consider bringing back Kyle Lohse. His record last year could've been alot better had he not started the year with the Reds. I would much rather see him in a Phillies uniform than in a Mets uniform.

The bullpen would look much better with Otsuka in there from Texas or adding Octavio Dotel (LH) from the Braves.

Adding those pieces would be tremendous.

Starting Pitchers
1. C. Hamels
2. Myers
3. Lohse
4. Kendrick
5. Moyer

Bullpen
-Lidge
-Romero
-Gordon
-Dotel/Otsuka
-Madsen
-Eaton
-J.D Durbin
-C. Durbin

Lineup
1. Rollins
2. Victorino
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Beltre
6. Burrell
7. Jenkins
8. Ruiz
9. Pitcher

What do you mean that you are not going to make trade proposals? You just want Beltre on the team and don't have any idea whether the Phillies have prospects who can make the deal but obviously have assumed they can do it without losing anybody else on the roster? And while you're at it, your previous post is also adding some sort of bizarre fusion of several Japanese pitchers at once named Otsusaka! Our awesome four-armed reliever will be unstoppable.

Why stop there? I want Peavy, Santana, and Bedard. Look at the rotation! Santana, Peavy, Bedard, Hamels, Myers. OMG! With Hamels as my #4, we win the world series! The Phillies would do this if they're serious, dontchaknow.

Sounds pretty meaningless? You can't just name random players you want and say the team isn't serious if they don't acquire them.

I'll make a proposal. Trade Eaton ( I think he's a Seatle boy and he would pitch better in that huge Mariners ballpark), Helms(to replace Beltre in Seatle),Fabio Castro and either Outlaw or Carrasco. The Mariners would dump around four million in payroll, pick up a starting pitcher in Eaton who may pitch very well in Seatle, and two very good pitching prospects that they desperatly need. There's a start. It can happen if Gillick would try. Beltre would be a huge addition for us. As for a fifth starter, use someone that we have now ( One of the Durbins, Blackley etc. or sign Livan Hernandez). Now everyone start shooting holes in this proposal.

I'll make a proposal. Trade Eaton ( I think he's a Seatle boy and he would pitch better in that huge Mariners ballpark), Helms(to replace Beltre in Seatle),Fabio Castro and either Outlaw or Carrasco. The Mariners would dump around four million in payroll, pick up a starting pitcher in Eaton who may pitch very well in Seatle, and two very good pitching prospects that they desperatly need. There's a start. It can happen if Gillick would try. Beltre would be a huge addition for us. As for a fifth starter, use someone that we have now ( One of the Durbins, Blackley etc. or sign Livan Hernandez). Now everyone start shooting holes in this proposal.

I'll make a proposal. Trade Eaton ( I think he's a Seatle boy and he would pitch better in that huge Mariners ballpark), Helms(to replace Beltre in Seatle),Fabio Castro and either Outlaw or Carrasco. The Mariners would dump around four million in payroll, pick up a starting pitcher in Eaton who may pitch very well in Seatle, and two very good pitching prospects that they desperatly need. There's a start. It can happen if Gillick would try. Beltre would be a huge addition for us. As for a fifth starter, use someone that we have now ( One of the Durbins, Blackley etc. or sign Livan Hernandez). Now everyone start shooting holes in this proposal.

rm - no one would ever be as stupid as our team to pay Adam Eaton $8M/yr.... he is ours ---lucky us.

Eaton WILL be a Phillie for the next two years. yay!

Helms has ZERO trade value. neither does Fabio, neither did Roberson.

the Phillies have NO ONE to trade for a decent major league player. Carlos Carrasco is their best prospect and Keith Law describes him as a future #3 or #4 starter. do you think that's going to land you Beltre or Atkins? the Mariners just gave Carlos Silva $44 million because they think they can compete now. if you wanted crappy Richie Sexson though, they'll happily drive him over to your house right now...

I would trade Outlaw as RM suggests.

We have three MVP Caliber players (2 previous MVP's) in our infield and we would want to trade any of our pitchers (where we have no depth and hardly any talent) for an upgrade to third base. Let's just trade Utley for a really good third basement then we will be better because we have a good third basemen and a shitty second basemen... Because that's what is the key to the World Series right?

I don't know why everyone assumes beltre is available. The M's just gave carlos silva a huge deal, which proves they are trying to win now. Trading beltre for prospects wouldn't make sense for them.

CREDE BLOWS, look at his numbers!!! He is wes helms with a bad back.

Lohse wants 4 or 5 years. His numbers don't justify a contract of that length. Let the mets overpay for him.

Also, Boss T no one will take you seriously if you can't spell ridiculous correctly. By the way, Dotel is right handed. Otsuka would be OK, but he missed half of last year with an arm injury so he could be damaged goods.

The phils don't need another RH in the pen, they need a quality lefty that will be able to get lefties out. I know they resigned Romero, but right now he is the only dependable lefty in the pen. They need another LH reliever.

Just remember that the roster to start the season will probably be totally different than the roster that ends the season (see last year - and every other baseball season). I think most people just like to complain when they really don't know what the F they're talking about. Gillick knows what he's doing.

I look for a Werth/Jenkins platoon to produce 25+ homeruns and damn near 100 rbi. I will miss Fence-Face, but Rowand's contract demands were silly in my opinion and I believe 2007 will be his career and our platoon of Werth/Jenkins will be comparable if not better than him in '08.

I look for Howard's average to climb this season, but probably settle somewhere in the .275 range. If healthy the entire season 50+ dingers is easy for him.

Utley is my pick for '08 MVP. Wouldn't that be awesome?!

And as someone mentioned above, if we can keep Vic healthy the whole seaosn 15 homeruns and 50 stolen bases are within reason.

KS seems angry.

When Ryan Howard didn't strike out, he was 142 for 330 or a batting average of .430.

GM-Carson feels the Jenkins-Werth combo is good for 25/100.

KS would indeed appear to be angry.

RM feels we should trade Outlaw with our old pal TonyO in agreement.

If my aunt had nuts, she'd be my uncle.

Who the hell is Outlaw?

Is there life on this planet?

Of course I'm angry, I'm a philadelphia fan. The dumb @ss posts on this board don't help. People think it's so easy to just acquire players for other teams (some, like Crede aren't even an upgrade!!).

I figured if I didn't listen to 610 I could avoid the common, stupid fan - but I guess they're everywhere. Gillick knows what he's doing, the team is coming off of a playoff berth, and they will be better this year. People still insist on whining and it doesn't make sense.

KS,

We're all sorry for your anger. Sports is supposed to be fun. Come on and join the fun bunch. We may be wrong but we're also happy.

You too can find happiness along with us.

I am THE BIGGEST Phillies fan in the world. By acquiring a SOLID thrid basemen, a starter, and another arm in the pen, the Phils would better position themselves in the playoffs this year.

If everyone wants a trade proposal from me....here it goes....
Kyle Kendrick, Wes Helms, and C. Carasco for Beltre. I know everyone is going to day, "Oh my God your nuts"! But as I see it.... We don't know what we are getting from Kendrick next year (although he had a great rookie year)...Helms is a serviceable third basemen (Florida days) and Carlos is a good prospect.

Lets be honest, if the mets did not completely collapse last year, it is entirely possible that the phillies would not have made the postseason. Resign Lohse and acquire Otsuka. I would feel real good going into the year.

Lineup
1. Rollins 2. Victorino 3. Utley 4. Howard 5. Beltre 6. Burrell 7.Jenkins 8. Ruiz 9. Pitcher

Pitching
1. Hamels 2. Myers 3. Lohse 4. Eaton 5. Moyer

Pen- Closer -Lidge rest of the crew Durbin, J.D Durbin, Madsen, Gorden, Otsuka, Zagurski, Romero.

I am THE BIGGEST Phillies fan in the world. By acquiring a SOLID thrid basemen, a starter, and another arm in the pen, the Phils would better position themselves in the playoffs this year.

If everyone wants a trade proposal from me....here it goes....
Kyle Kendrick, Wes Helms, and C. Carasco for Beltre. I know everyone is going to day, "Oh my God your nuts"! But as I see it.... We don't know what we are getting from Kendrick next year (although he had a great rookie year)...Helms is a serviceable third basemen (Florida days) and Carlos is a good prospect.

Lets be honest, if the mets did not completely collapse last year, it is entirely possible that the phillies would not have made the postseason. Resign Lohse and acquire Otsuka. I would feel real good going into the year.

Lineup
1. Rollins 2. Victorino 3. Utley 4. Howard 5. Beltre 6. Burrell 7.Jenkins 8. Ruiz 9. Pitcher

Pitching
1. Hamels 2. Myers 3. Lohse 4. Eaton 5. Moyer

Pen- Closer -Lidge rest of the crew Durbin, J.D Durbin, Madsen, Gorden, Otsuka, Zagurski, Romero.

I am THE BIGGEST Phillies fan in the world. By acquiring a SOLID thrid basemen, a starter, and another arm in the pen, the Phils would better position themselves in the playoffs this year.

If everyone wants a trade proposal from me....here it goes....
Kyle Kendrick, Wes Helms, and C. Carasco for Beltre. I know everyone is going to day, "Oh my God your nuts"! But as I see it.... We don't know what we are getting from Kendrick next year (although he had a great rookie year)...Helms is a serviceable third basemen (Florida days) and Carlos is a good prospect.

Lets be honest, if the mets did not completely collapse last year, it is entirely possible that the phillies would not have made the postseason. Resign Lohse and acquire Otsuka. I would feel real good going into the year.

Lineup
1. Rollins 2. Victorino 3. Utley 4. Howard 5. Beltre 6. Burrell 7.Jenkins 8. Ruiz 9. Pitcher

Pitching
1. Hamels 2. Myers 3. Lohse 4. Eaton 5. Moyer

Pen- Closer -Lidge rest of the crew Durbin, J.D Durbin, Madsen, Gorden, Otsuka, Zagurski, Romero.

BossT is smokin weed. We don't have Lohse or Beltre. Weed leads to harder drugs. Stop smokin' the weed.

Stop smokin' the weed. It goes nowhere. Your point goes nowhere.

What the hell is the matter with you people!

I still think the Phils should go after Inge, even though it looks like detroit won't just give him away.

good piece on him below:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/05/tigers-refuse-to-get-fleeced-may-hold-onto-inge/

I agree with tigger, Boss T is an idiot. You may be the biggest phils fan in the world, but you are obviously the least educated.

Pitching is the phils most glaring weakness and you want to deal two of the organizations best pitchers for a third baseman? why? the team's problem isn't scoring runs, it's preventing them. your trade proposal is asanine.

Based on the M's offseason activity they are trying to win now. Beltre probably isn't available.

The phils will be fine at third...they need pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

Yes I agree we need pitching. Since there are sooooo many pitchers available, whom would everyone like to see in here? There is NO ONE out there. I DO NOT want to see Lohse on the Mets next season.

Lets be honest people, the Phillies wont be paying Eaton over 7 Million to be fooling around in the bullpen. He is our 4th or 5th starter.

Everyone just falls in love with the Phillies pitching prospects over the years, Matt Beach, Tyler Green, Gavin Floyd (the list goes on forever).... I really like Kendrick--- but he is unproven. Go get the third basemen, bring back Lohse.

Otsuka could have a great season this year and prove the critics wrong like Romero did last year.

You could have a real nice bullpen---Lidge, Gordon, Madsen, Romero, Otsuka, Zagurski, Durbin, C. Durbin.....

we are talking about the same kyle lohse right? The pitcher with a career ERA of 4.83. The guy who is asking for $10 million per year for 4 or 5 years. This is who I was talking about, but you must be talking about a different Kyle Lohse.

If you want to give this guy a 4 year deal than there is no reason debating with you. Let the mets have him.

when I think of Lohse, two words immediately come to mind...KAZ MATSUI

Last season, Pete Rose said that two teams that would never win a World Series are the Phillies and the Reds because of their "bandbox ballparks". The Phillies win during the regular season with hitting, they simply outscore their opponents. However that does not work in the post season. Ultimately the Red Sox won it all because of dominant pitching.

So the Phillies are caught in a bad spot with their band box ballpark. It is true there is precious little pitching out there. We know of many pitchers contracts that are ridiculous including Eaton and what Lohse is asking for. Other pitchers received bloated contracts.

How can we improve? I think we can improve at 3rd base. There are some players out there that are an upgrade at 3rd base. Who are the pitchers out there that will improve us? I don't know anything about Otsuka, but I doubt he'd still be out there if he was an impact player.

We can't improve by standing pat. Can we win the division ... maybe? Can we win the pennant....no. Can we win a World Series...no.

Is one shrewd approach to this dilemma to load up on hitting now and then have something to trade in July to obtain some pitching for the stretch? Does that approach make sense?

Suppose we signed Feliz and Cameron now... with an eye towards unloading some hitting for pitching at the deadline? Does anyone have any good ideas?

OK. I'm wondering how Bill James came up with these numbers, too!

The whole front of the line-up is a little low if you ask me.

Especially Chase! Barring another broken hand.....GOD FORBID......his numbers HAVE to go up.

And I agree with Clare. Howard and Burrell legging out even one triple? Sorry guys! I luv ya, but.......