"So this year, to Jimmy Rollins, we are the team to beat." - Carlos Beltran
"He's just trying to pull a Jimmy, when you can't have a sequel. Sequels are always terrible." - Brett Myers
Sequels can be bad. I mentioned a couple bad ones in today's story about the Phillies' reaction to Beltran's boast. Caddyshack II and Teen Wolf Too immediately came to mind. Terrible, terrible movies.
But some sequels are good.
Aliens.
Empire Strikes Back.
(At least in my opinion.)
The Mets hope to be better than that.
At least this back and forth between the Phillies and Mets makes life more interesting this season. Rivalries make for great drama. If it takes some trash talk to get it started, fine. I like that. And while I know some players shrug off the talk, they can't ignore the energy in the stadiums in Philadelphia and New York, which absolutely feels different than the energy in Atlanta or Florida or Washington or anywhere else for that matter. These games are bigger. They mean more.
Beltran's boast just adds to it.
"Different guys have different ways to pump up their team," Mets third baseman David Wright told Mets reporters. "Personally, I don't feel the need to declare anything, because talk is cheap, especially in February."
"I thought what David Wright said was interesting," centerfielder Shane Victorino said. "Talk is cheap in February."
It might be cheap, but it'll last for the next eight months.
And that's a good thing.
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The folks at Baseball Prospectus would agree with Beltran: the Mets are the team to beat in the National League East. Its PECOTA projected 2008 standings has the Phillies finishing a distant third in the NL East at 84-78, behind the Mets (96-66) and Braves (86-76).
Baseball Prospectus has nailed the 1-2 spots in the NL East the past two seasons, so the projections can't be completely dismissed. PECOTA simply thinks the Phillies pitching staff is going to continue to struggle. The projected Phillies' rotation looks like this: Cole Hamels (14-8, 3.45 ERA last season), Brett Myers (11-7, 3.83), Kyle Kendrick (11-14, 5.35), Jamie Moyer (8-7, 4.25), and Adam Eaton (7-8, 5.18). Compare that to the projected Mets' rotation: Johan Santana (17-8, 2.94), Pedro Martinez (9-6, 3.37), John Maine (10-9, 4.03), Oliver Perez (9-8, 4.22), and Orlando Hernandez (6-6, 4.08).
But who trusts computers anyway, right?
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Jim Salisbury talks with J.C. Romero, who was a big reason why the Phillies overcame the Mets last September.