OK, I promise today will be the last day we talk about Ryan Howard and salary arbitration.
Really, I swear.
But because it's only one day after Howard's big victory over the Phillies, it's still worth another look.
If you're a Phillies fan, this is a big deal. It's a big deal because if you were wondering, "Why don't the Phillies just sign Howard to a multiyear contract already like Chase Utley?" you're really underestimating the situation. Because now that Howard, who is in his first year of arbitration, is earning $3 million more this year than Albert Pujols earned in his first year of arbitration, you can expect Team Howard to stick to its guns even more than before.
Not that they were pushovers to begin with.
There are indications that Howard, who acknowledged his father Ron's role in negotiations, is seeking much more than the eight-year, $136 million contract Alfonso Soriano signed last year. We're not saying it's going to approach Alex Rodriguez's last contract. But anything that totals $200 million or more isn't out of the question. Think about that for a second. That's a TON of money. And unless the Phillies suddenly decide to really pump up their payroll -- paging billionaire John Middleton -- they're going to have some terribly difficult decisions to make in the future.
Fortunately for the Phillies, Howard can't become a free agent until after the 2011 season so they have time. Unfortunately for them, they could face three more arbitration hearings with Howard. And Howard could keep producing like he has, which means his asking price will keep going up.
*
Jim Salisbury tells us why yesterday's ruling is ground breaking and game changing. It absolutely is.
*
Chris Coste's new book hits stores March 18. He got a look at the first official copy.
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Talked with the Sports Radio 950 Morning Show. Listen to the podcast here.

Comments (57)
The Phillies are a business, the reason for going into business is to make money. They did the right thing in offering 7 mil instead of 10. If they would have given him 10 when an arbitrator would rule that 7 was appropriate, that wouldn't be good business. I just don't get why people are so hard on the Phillies on this one.
Posted by Joe | February 22, 2008 8:02 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 08:02
Ryan Howard will be traded to Boston or the NY Yankees after the 2010 season, book it. The Phillies will move Chase Utley to 1st Base and Adrian Cardenas will start at 2nd Base.
The only way Philly could keep Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Hamels is if the team is sold to Comcast or another Billion Dollar entity.
If Comcast bought the team, they could increase the team's payroll (and your Cable Bill)to accomodate All-Star players. Your cable cost will increase, your ticket to the game will probably double in price.
I remember going to the Flyers and Sixers games at the Spectrum in the early 80's and sitting in the lower level. Today, those seats cost $100.00 (if you buy a season package).
My point is, this Phillies ownership has provided the "regular fan" a good product at an afforable price. If you want the team to be sold to a giant like Comcast, you better watch what you wish for. You could be priced out of the stadium.
Comcast has owned and operated the Flyers & Sixers since 1996. How many Championships have those teams won in the last 12 years?
ZERO!
Posted by Case | February 22, 2008 8:24 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 08:24
I think Howard is great, but if we're talking anywhere near the $200 mil range, I'd said "See 'ya." Sorry, too many red flags around the idea of a massive long-term deal. If Burrell is tailor-made for the AL, what does that make Howard, the posterboy? Just an opinion - and here come the slams - but I'd trade him for a Santana in a heartbeat.
Holding on to him for another 3 years of arbitration (not that it would/could ever happen), and then trading him for a top-flight number-one wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
Posted by John in LA | February 22, 2008 8:26 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 08:26
Mystery solved, from what I'm hearing agent Casey Close made a reasonable and spectualar arguement.
Basically, he has eliminated the service time tradition. What Close said was: if a player and organization can not come to agreement on a long term contract then the onus is on the player to continue to produce. The risk and the pressure is also on the player. If said player(Ryan Howard in this case) produces year over year he should be paid according to his production the previous year. Hence the "onus" on him. If he get's hurt and doesn't produce then he must re-establish himself the following season and be paid less for that upcoming season(accordingly).
Pretty simple. If teams want cost certainty they need to offer a fair contract to eat up the remainder of the lock-in period, projected on that players statisical potential. Otherwise the teams must be punished for not offering fair and reasonable contracts, particulary to players that break the mold. This punishment must be doled out by the arbitrators, otherwise the system becomes lopsided. I think the arguement was fair, not just for Howard but for the entire labor class in baseball.
In other words the indentured servitude model of doing business was rejected by the arbitrator yesterday. I know you guys say I use race, but yesterday was victory for the labor class. It's hard to relate to rich people arguing the difference btwn 7-10 mil. but if you scale it down it's really the old same old labor vs mgmt class warfare.
Posted by Truth | February 22, 2008 8:28 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 08:28
Todd- Heard you on XM yesterday afternoon, very well spoken, great job!
I'm envious of you right now in the Florida warmth while winter just dumped on us up in PA yet again.
Posted by GM-Carson | February 22, 2008 8:30 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 08:30
Fine then take him to abritration every year for the next three years. I don't mind that he knows he will have to produce to get his money. Actually in my opinion every player should be on a one year contract with an arbitrator deciding if you deserve a raise, that way you have to produce or else.
How does Philly always get some meedling parent when it comes to some of their top players? McNabb, Lindros, Rolen, now Howard. And I thought Ryan was his own man, guess not.
Posted by Will Mac | February 22, 2008 8:46 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 08:46
What people don't understand is that Ryan Howard at $900,000 is a HUGE asset. Ryan Howard at $10 million is now a moderate asset. He was much more valuable last year then he'll ever be again.
He's going to hold out for top dollar for a $200 million dollar contract and then the Truth will celebrate another win for 'the working class'.
When millionaires get money from billionaires, how exactly does it help the working class?!?!?
Posted by griffin | February 22, 2008 8:53 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 08:53
Well summed up in one sentence griffin.
I am pro union and pro working class but I'm having a tough time with sympathizing or drawing comparisons to this Howard incident. Techincally it is "labor" vs management.
But the money that is exchanging hands is hardly comparable to a decent living wage.
Can we beat this lifeless topic anymore?
Posted by Joe | February 22, 2008 9:11 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 09:11
BIG BUCKS ahead for Howard.
Imagine what he could net if he could field !!!
Posted by Michael | February 22, 2008 9:20 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 09:20
THANK YOU, TODD!!!
This is EXACTLY what I've been saying all along!
Posted by Norma | February 22, 2008 9:27 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 09:27
-In other words the indentured servitude model of doing business was rejected by the arbitrator yesterday.
A negotiated labor agreement is hardly indentured servitude. Maybe they just recognized that an exception was warrented for historic production.
-I know you guys say I use race, but yesterday was victory for the labor class.
That would be the same class that will be the first one's priced out of attending, as Case pointed out. I'm still working on connecting the dots on race and labor class in the same sentence.
Thank God, this subject's shelf life is coming to an end. Until February 2009, 2010, 2011.
Now about the bullpen and who's hitting behind Howard....
Posted by jimmymack | February 22, 2008 9:46 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 09:46
Just think what Howard's numbers would be based on last year's numbers if he could run, one stolen base; field, second most errors of NL first basemen and throw well enough to make the first to second to first double play. Hard to believe Harry he was awarded that kind of money and he hit only .225 against lefthanded pitching last year. Guess the arbritrators just watched his home run highlight reel. But baseball has other aspects and it wasn't pretty watching him try to throw a baseball. I was stuck watching him play when he did not go deep! Bet if Howard can'the hit the lefties again this year Helms will get playing time at first base against certain lefties and they go with six bench guys and 11 pitchers to compensate for Howard's inability to hit the lefties. That will give poor Rueben Jr. some talking points for next year's arbritration hearing.
Posted by Steve D | February 22, 2008 10:05 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:05
I love Ryan Howard but I just have to ask the people who come here... Are HRs all there is to this game? I've been watching baseball for more than 40 years and I just don't enjoy it like I used to. It seems some thing has been lost by this wait-around-for-someone -to-hit-a-homer mentality. Sure, there are speedy guys at the top of the lineup but the #2 hitter never bunts anymore. In fact, you hardly ever see a bunt except from a pitcher. I remember a time when players would be fined for not bunting if a team got the first two runners on. JUst an example....Did you ever see Bobby Abreau bunt? The man had speed enough to do it but he rarely ever did. How many times last year could Howard have helped the team by shortening his stroke and trying to just hit a single and instead struck out killing a rally? It makes a purist like me sick! (naturally, I'm not saying guys like Howard should ever bunt).
Have you checked the ERAS lately? Hardly any pitcher has an ERA anymore under 4. Sorry to complain but I miss 'little ball' where teams would try to manufacture runs by bunting, hit and run and hiting behind the runner. You hardly ever see players go to the opposite field anymore. It almost makes me sick to see the entire left side of the infield with only one fielder playing it. I guess the allure of the big bucks coming from hitting HRs has changed this game forever. Hell, this is the reason for the steroids crap that has tainted this game. I think it has lost a lot of his charm.
Posted by James L (forever a Phillies fan!) | February 22, 2008 10:34 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:34
I'm with you on that James L. Its a result of our instant gratification society.
Posted by whomever | February 22, 2008 10:39 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:39
If Pat Burrell gets paid $14.3 million to hit 27 hr, 95 rbi; then how much is 47 hr, 136 rbi; or 58 hr, 149 rbi worth? Get ready for Howard to meet or exceed Burrell's salary if he puts up numbers like last year. When you put up huge numbers, you get big $$.
Since both the Phillies and Howard are content to go to arbitration each year, don't be surprised if his salary continues to grow by leaps and bounds. "Service time" has officially been thrown out the window.
Posted by jrquixote | February 22, 2008 10:40 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:40
agree with jrq, there are no more comparisons to Pujols, Soriano or anyone else. Ryan Howard has set the standard and broke the mold. If he continues to hit 45-55 hrs per year, his arbitration value will increase dramatically and if he puts up numbers like he did last year, he will be making at least what Burrell is this year.
I am happy for Howard and for the Phillies because they have a happy, productive slugger that will contribute to a harmonius team.
Good luck, Ryan. Good luck, Phils!
Posted by TonyO | February 22, 2008 10:41 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:41
Congratulations to Ryan Howard for now being the player others are compared to in arbitration and for debunking the "service time" nonsense. The Phillies are swimming in cash and were prepared for the financial hit.
As for ticket prices, they were not raised this year. And ticket prices are not a function of payroll, they are a function of supply and demand. In the years that the Marlins and the Devil Rays (now Rays) stunk, they had team payrolls in the $10- $15 million range. They also had average attendance of about 10,000 per game which was inflated by Sunday attendance. Average attendance during the week? About 5000-7000 and they were giving tickets away or discouting them well below face value.
When the Phillies are an exciting, compelling team that they were last year, the stadium is packed, the demand for tickets go up, the supply goes down and up goes the ticket prices.
Now it's time to see what kind of awesome numbers Howard will put up this year now that he is a relaxed, happy, and wealthy player.
Posted by Nick from the Northeast | February 22, 2008 10:42 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:42
Hola chicos (y chicas).
If the idea in a salary cap environment is to spend as much as you can, why is it the idea to spend as little as you can in a non-salary cap environment?
Why is anyone worried about how much Ryan Howard makes except Ryan Howard? Why shouldn't he make as much as he can? He wouldn't be making this kind of money if he wasn't producing.
Posted by JoseC | February 22, 2008 10:43 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:43
The Phillies should just save five dollars in their pocket everyday until Ryan Howard is due to be a free-agent, by that time they will have enough money to give him (or will they?)
Posted by Zac | February 22, 2008 10:50 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:50
Ticket prices did go up last year.
Posted by Tim | February 22, 2008 10:50 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 10:50
Funny, I have season tickets and my tickets didn't go up. I just bought Red Sox tickets and they didn't go up.
Nonetheless, supply and demand drives the price of tickets, and not player's salaries. If you want ticket prices to decline then stop going to games. The Phillies are very popular and the stands are filled. That is what drives up ticket prices.
Posted by jrquixote | February 22, 2008 11:07 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 11:07
Several very good points made here. Basically, I fall into the opinion that the Phils did the right thing for them and Ryan's people did the right thing for him. Nothing wromng with that, and there should be no hard feelings on either side.
As for the future, I'm fine with the idea of playing out the next 3 years under the "pay based on production" model. Isn't that what everyone always screams about anyway? When 2011 rolls around, everyone will again need to do what's right for themselves. That may mean we see Ryan playing in NY or Boston, or it may mean he gets a nice long contract that probably keeps him a Phillie for life. Either way, barring serious injury or some other unforeseen issue, it's a big payday for Ryan and some team will be very happy.
The only other possibility is that the Phillies decide in advance of '11 that it's better to trade Howard and get pitching or prospects. If that happens and they work it right, it might not be a bad thing.
But for now, on to the 2008 NL East Championship! (By the way, last night I stumbled upon the recording of the Phils sweeping the Mets in the 4th game of that series at CBP last year. Fun to watch. What a game!)
Posted by bobby | February 22, 2008 11:10 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 11:10
This may be good for Ryan Howard, and I'm glad people are happy for the guy. However, this is not good for the Phillies or the fans.
The Phillies operate on a budget, like it or not, because they are a business. Just like the company you work for, no matter how much profit they make, works on a budget. This means that a larger portion of their payroll budget is taken up by one person. So when you talk about free agents, or the other core players who will be negotiating contracts, it just means there is less money to spend, so they won't. Fewer free agent signings, and down the road the likelyhood that one or more of the core players, possibly even Howard, will be gone.
To put the most competitive team on the field for the longest period of time, it is best to be able to pay, especially the players under your control, the least amount of money possible. And to root for them to spend more money, even when its against the best interest of the TEAM, just because you think they are cheap, is ridiculous.
Posted by Tim | February 22, 2008 11:11 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 11:11
I have season tickets as well, and they did go up. Some sections of the stadium went up and others did not. But I bet if you look at avg price per ticket, its up.
Posted by Tim | February 22, 2008 11:18 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 11:18
We have some budding economists out there. Sports franchises derive their value by increasing the value of the franchise through improving the product. That means better stadiums, better players, better records, sales of licensed material, and championships. Sports franchises do not make money by sucking the income out of it. Therefore the "budget" argument is bogus.
Teams spend as much as they can to improve their product. A testament to the fact that baseball is swimming in cash is that there is no salary cap. Each team can spend whatever it wants.
So let's see, ticket prices have nothing to do with player salaries and budgets have nothing to do with increasing the value of a franchise. So much for our junior economists.
Posted by TonyO | February 22, 2008 11:20 AM
Posted on February 22, 2008 11:20
TonyO
Good try. You make a bunch of assumptions with your argument.
You are right that the value of the team increases with improving the overall quality of the product and the facilities they own/lease. However, for an ownership group that has no intention of selling the team in the near future (which is the case here), then the estimated value of the franchise will have little effect on ticket prices. If the ownership group is planning on holding onto the team for another 25 years, they can't count on the increased value of the team for year-to-year spending (unless for purposes of loans). They need to keep spending in line with their revenues. Unlike the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox, this team does not have its own TV network bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars.
What does have an impact on ticket prices? An operating budget. And you can't deny that paying your first baseman $25 million a year over $10 million a year won't have an effect on ticket prices. Or having a $150 million commitment to your roster instead of $100 million. If the team does increase the roster expenditures by 50 %, then they need to increase revenue. Yeah, some of this will occur through more demand for tickets and merchandise, but that can only increase to a certain level. The Phillies have had good attendance for the last 5 years. Demand is basically maxed out. Therefore, ticket prices would have to increase.
Another point--often, the re-sale value of a franchise is much higher if there are no long-term commitments to huge contracts. For instance--look at the Memphis Grizzlies, who are dumping salary like crazy in order to sell the team. So if the ownership group is looking to sell, signing Howard to $20-25 million a year is not something they're going to do.
Posted by Grizzle | February 22, 2008 12:19 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 12:19
Better stadiums? The Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs play in 100 year-old stadiums??
Does their Television revenues play into the equation? Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs have their own TV networks. The revenues are in the broadcasting rights.
Posted by Case | February 22, 2008 12:24 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 12:24
To settle the ticket price debate, the Phillies escalated ticket prices only in certain sections for this coming year. In regards to Tim, if every single seat in the stadium except for one was kept at the same price, but that one single seat was raised even a dollar, then the average price per ticket has grown. So, I don't see the point in bringing up average price per ticket, of course it has grown!
Posted by Neduol Caz | February 22, 2008 12:26 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 12:26
Ticket prices are driven by the supply and demand of tickets at the ballpark, nothing more...nothing less.
The only sports franchises that are run like annuities are losing franchises like the KC Royals, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Supersonics, and others. Wringing the cash out of franchises doesn't win now or later.
Ryan Howard adds value to the franchise. They couldn't replace him with Doug Mientkiewicz or Travis Lee and produce as much value despite being able to pay those guys next to nothing.
I agree that the Phillies will not pay Howard one day after 2011, and might try to trade him before then. However that is due to their incompetence of dealing with amount of money sports franchises need to deal with today. That is why Ruly Carpenter sold the team in 1982. The people who ran the business end of the operation for Ruly? Why that would be Bill Giles, Dave Montgomery and Jerry Clothier, the same guys running it today.
I for one am hopeful that this ownership group takes their money and runs. I hope the prospect of dealing with Ryan Howard for the next three years scares the hell out of them, the way it did Ruly Carpenter.
Posted by Chad from Media | February 22, 2008 12:32 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 12:32
Hang in there, Ryan. Hit them cheap Fillies with 3 more arbitration hearings. Then talk to the team just up the turnpike.
The Metropolitans will treat you right and pay your right. They have the money and the common sense.
Posted by The Wizard | February 22, 2008 1:04 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 13:04
Chad from Media--
"However that is due to their incompetence of dealing with amount of money sports franchises need to deal with today."
You do realize the Phillies payroll is currently ranked 11th in the league, right? Spending money is not their problem. Spending it wisely, and developing talent is.
Posted by Grizzle | February 22, 2008 2:27 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 14:27
Grizzle..
Same issue...incompetent dealing with large sums of money including signing the best draft picks because they don't want to pay large signing bonuses. Also including signing injured players or players they overrate. The Phillies sphincters pucker up when it comes time to spend money.
Posted by Chad from Media | February 22, 2008 2:31 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 14:31
Howard will be DHing in 2012. Its not the end of the world. He is under contract for the next four seasons-seasons that can be great for the Phils. The real issue for the team is not his extension. It won't happen. Its improving the team now! More pitching now! Make this next four years truly great. The organization is in the best spot it has been in for 30 years. It can't waste this opportunity. It will have to retool by 2012 anyway. Rollins, Utley, Myers, all will begin aging by then. Its now that matters. The teams inability to improve its pitching in the here and now is unacceptable and is the real problem.
Posted by Murph | February 22, 2008 2:35 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 14:35
Howard will be DHing in 2012. Its not the end of the world. He is under contract for the next four seasons-seasons that can be great for the Phils. The real issue for the team is not his extension. It won't happen. Its improving the team now! More pitching now! Make this next four years truly great. The organization is in the best spot it has been in for 30 years. It can't waste this opportunity. It will have to retool by 2012 anyway. Rollins, Utley, Myers, all will begin aging by then. Its now that matters. The teams inability to improve its pitching in the here and now is unacceptable and is the real problem.
Posted by Murph | February 22, 2008 2:35 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 14:35
How edifying that the Phillies clench their anal aperature when dealing with sums of money. I think I saw Ruben Amaro clenching his sphincter when he was being interviewed after the ruling.
The information was too fresh as was the flesh around his anus.
Posted by Win With a Grin | February 22, 2008 2:42 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 14:42
Well if Howard has the same year this year as last, then he wont be getting to much of a raise next year. The Phils will use the service time argument against him. Now if he has the same HR and RBI numbers but cuts down on K's and his average goes back up to around .300 or so, look out, cuz then he's really gonna have a great case to get alot more money. I hope he produces like he did in his MVP season, but I just dont think the strikeouts will go down all that much.
Posted by clinton, nj | February 22, 2008 2:57 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 14:57
This is great! Stick it to those cheap fat cats, Howard! Ryan Cavanaugh is still waiting for the payout he deserves since leaving his college team in 2001.
Posted by Rod Stiffington | February 22, 2008 2:58 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 14:58
Clinton, the whole "service time" issue is dead with Howard. He has already redefined it. Ryan Howard is the standard now, not Pujols or Cabrera or anyone else. If Howard has a year in 2008 like he did in 2007, he will make more than Burrell is, like $14.5 - $15 million.
It's time we stopped deluding ourselves that arbitrators are going to be limited to money that someone else made. No one has put up numbers that Howard does.
Posted by TonyO | February 22, 2008 3:17 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 15:17
"No one has put up numbers that Howard does."
So Howard is the first person ever to put up these numbers? Ever?
Posted by Tim | February 22, 2008 3:26 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 15:26
But TonyO, if Howard doesnt get better this year, wht wouldnt he get paid the same? He cant argue that he has another year under his belt and should get more because of it.
Posted by clinton, nj | February 22, 2008 3:33 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 15:33
And I think the next couple years will really tell what kind of money Howard gets. The big thing is consistency, and if you look at Pujols or A-rod's numbers, they are solid throughout the stat sheet EVERY YEAR. So if Howard goes up and down, or stays down with average and up with the K's, then I dont think he gets that monster contract(still gets good money though). Not signing a big contract now could come back to bite him in the @$$ if he doesnt produce.
Posted by clinton, nj | February 22, 2008 3:49 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 15:49
Comparing Burrell to Howard in terms of performance for pay is kind of silly since it is apples/oranges, different general managers, different approaches etc. But what we CAN do now is slot Howard based on comparisons between his and Pujols' contracts, and allowing for inflation.
Pujols' was adjudged to be worth $7M in 2004; Howard is adjudged to be worth $10M in 2008. Assuming 3% inflation, that means Howard is adjudged to be worth about 25% more than Pujols. Pujols signed for 7 years and a total of $100M in 2004. Assume the Phils will offer, and Howard will accept, a 7 year contract (reasonable assumption). That contract should be worth about $125M in 1004 dollars, or about $156M in 2008 dollars (again assuming 3% inflation). Those are just rough estimates, but the difference between $7M and $10M is pretty rough too; who knows what the actual break points would have been for the arbitrators, depending on what each side offered?
So, bottom line: If Howard keeps producing at the expected level, if they negotiate a contract with him this year, they should expect to have to do around a $150-160M 7-year deal, or maybe a $180M 8-year deal.
That may be wise to do, if Howard will do it. If they eventually let him go FA, his market value will probably be far higher since places like NYC and Boston will surely start the bidding far higher than that.
Posted by Marty McPhillie | February 22, 2008 3:57 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 15:57
This is the perfect deal for everyone. Ryan gets paid and he can't afford to have a let down season. The incentive to work and improve will be there until he becomes a free agent. Showing up to Spring Training on time and displaying good character keeps the arbitration process focused soley on performance and $$. He did all the right things so good for him. We have until 2011 to become Champions of the World. Get er done.
The Eagles on the other hand will wait until after the season ticket payment due date before they trade McNabb. The price of admission to a football game is a joke. But the fans had to have a new football field with real grass as if they were playing. Bring back the Vet and those prices. It was much more fun pissing in a trash can and watching punk Giant fans getting smashed in the mouth. The commercials, tv timeouts, and this past years team could not have been anymore boring. Go Phils!
Posted by Poop Stain | February 22, 2008 3:58 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 15:58
Cal Ripken won the Rookie of the Year and then the MVP the following year. He is in the Hall of Fame. No one has ever hit 105 homerune in their 2nd and 3rd year combined.
Arbitrators will use Howard as the standard in the immediate future. Instead of looking at service time, arbitrators will look at his production. It's a whole new world, not a whole old world.
For instance two years ago Soriano filed for $12 million and lost but still made $10 million. Well, Howard will make that much this year. Next year will be interesting indeed depending upon because if Ryan has a similar season the Phillies must offer at least $12+ million with Ryan countering above that.
But for the time being he is our $10 million man. He is worth more than our previous $10 million men such as Abreu, Garcia, or Burrell.
Posted by Nick from the Northeast | February 22, 2008 4:02 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 16:02
Marty McPhillie - what you are suggesting is that they pay him more than $20 mil/per? I would rather go to arbitration with him instead, because unless he has a season more like 2006 than 2007, he isn't worth $20 mil/per, especially for 7 or 8 years. He will be 35 by the end of that contract and probably a few years beyond passing for a servicable first baseman, because his fielding is already below average.
Posted by Tim | February 22, 2008 4:04 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 16:04
Tim, I'm SUGGESTING it, but not necessarily RECOMMENDING it. It is really hard to predict future performance with Ryan. If he's a late-bloomer, he's probably about at his peak now and will degrade gradually for the next few years before taking a tumble (most MLB players peak at 28), and such a contract would probably look very bad. However, if he's on the standard development curve for a star and simply was in the minors too long, he probably won't peak until somewhere in his mid-30s (that's what the stars tend to do), in which case an average of $22.5M/yr for 8 years will probably turn out to be a remarkable bargain. But if you don't give him such a contract in the next year or two, he's gone after 2011. Ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances.
Posted by Marty McPhillie | February 22, 2008 4:13 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 16:13
Marty and all, if you read Jayson Stark's piece on ESPN.com you will see that the arbitrators did not compare Howard's contract demands to that of Pujols. First because the $7 million was not awarded by an arbitrator, it was negotiated with the team. Secondly because it was four years ago. According to Stark, the arbitrators compared it to the $7.4 million awarded to Miguel Cabrera last year. Since the Phillies offer was less, they awarded Howard with his proposal. They threw out the "service time" aspect.
Ryan Howard is in the process of rewriting the arbitration rules and the record book. You all will be very frustrated with comparison with Pujols. If Howard continues to produce he will make much more money than any of you are projecting.
For all of you "over the hill" theorists, the Phillies signed Jim Thome to a 7 year contract when he was 32 years, 4 months old. His contract was a very rich one at the time. As you all seem to know Ryan will be exactly 32 years old when his contract is up. Any chance of him have 7 good years after? Who is the better "athlete", Jim Thome or Ryan Howard?
Something to keep in mind.
Posted by jrquixote | February 22, 2008 4:42 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 16:42
Most scouts agree that Ryan Howard will have to move to the american league and DH by the time a long-term deal expires. He has a Mo Vaughn/Boog Powell/David Ortiz type body that will not hold up if he plays the field everyday.
just look at Thome, he was a much better fielder than Howard ever was and now he's a full time DH.
Posted by griffin | February 22, 2008 4:58 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 16:58
I'd say Thome, he used to play ss or 3rd base.
Posted by clinton, nj | February 22, 2008 7:13 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 19:13
Really, the Phillies could go the arbitration route with Ryan for the next three years and make out better than signing him to a long-term deal. In truth, what are the chances that Ryan has 6 monster years left after he becomes a FA? At his age and body-type, he's looking at probably 6 really good years FROM NOW. Hopefully he has more than that, but he would be an exception if that happens. I love Ryan and hope he's with the Phils his entire career, but if he is looking to make every nickle he possibly can, then it just may be in the Phillies best interest to let him get paid elsewhere when he becomes a FA.
Posted by Eric | February 22, 2008 7:42 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 19:42
Todd: Who is John Middleton? A few of your writings seem to indicate that he is the majority owner of the Phils, but I've never heard of him before. I was under the impression that the Phils are owned by a largely-anonymous group of private owners (nickamed "The Teflonics" by one of your fellow Inquirer writers awhile ago), with Bill Giles as the minority owner and spokesman. So bottom line - who is John Middleton?
In other news:
This is a sad day for baseball and for the city of Philadelphia. Ryan Howard is G-O-N-E (after the 2009, 2010, or 2011 season, that is). This arbitration ruling has completely changed the balance of power (instead of the teams "owning" players for the first six years, the Ryan Howard case just basically determined that teams "own" players for 2 or 3 years). This is just another step in the slow, systematic destruction of the game that's been happening since Marvin Miller and the inception of the Players' Union.
I'm mostly just disappointed in Ryan, though. The fans love him; we treat him better than we treat the mayor, the bishop, or the governor; and when given the opportunity to show some loyalty back to us, he decides to chase dollar bills instead. It just makes me sad, as a baseball fan and as a Philadelphian, that he can't take a page from the Jimmy Rollins / Chase Utley playbook and show some loyalty to the city.
Posted by Dan | February 22, 2008 10:39 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 22:39
A few other comments:
(1) Whoops, I meant Cardinal, not bishop... ;)
(2) At this point, the best we can hope for is that Howard is motivated to play well for the next few years (he will be, assuming he continues the year-by-year arbitration process) and that the Phillies eventually get some good young prospects when they trade him before he hits free agency. A slightly worse case is that we can't arrange a trade and we just get draft picks. Then, obviously, the worst, worst, worst case scenario is that he hits free agency, signs with the mets, and the other three horsemen of the Apocalypse show up... ;)
Posted by Dan | February 22, 2008 10:44 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 22:44
A few other comments:
(1) Whoops, I meant Cardinal, not bishop... ;)
(2) At this point, the best we can hope for is that Howard is motivated to play well for the next few years (he will be, assuming he continues the year-by-year arbitration process) and that the Phillies eventually get some good young prospects when they trade him before he hits free agency. A slightly worse case is that we can't arrange a trade and we just get draft picks. Then, obviously, the worst, worst, worst case scenario is that he hits free agency, signs with the mets, and the other three horsemen of the Apocalypse show up... ;)
Posted by Dan | February 22, 2008 10:44 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 22:44
A few other comments:
(1) Whoops, I meant Cardinal, not bishop... ;)
(2) At this point, the best we can hope for is that Howard is motivated to play well for the next few years (he will be, assuming he continues the year-by-year arbitration process) and that the Phillies eventually get some good young prospects when they trade him before he hits free agency. A slightly worse case is that we can't arrange a trade and we just get draft picks. Then, obviously, the worst, worst, worst case scenario is that he hits free agency, signs with the mets, and the other three horsemen of the Apocalypse show up... ;)
Posted by Dan | February 22, 2008 10:44 PM
Posted on February 22, 2008 22:44
Rrrrrrrrrring!
Hello is Clinton there?
Why no, I'm sorry he's gone down to the Phillies game to watch his favorite player, Doug Mietkewicz, play first base.
Mientkiewicz? He can't hit a lick, why is he Clinton's favorite player?
Because Mientkiewicz will play for peanuts and Clinton is deeply disturbed that the Phillies have no money. He's afraid they will go broke.
But he brings nothing to the table and doesn't improve the team.
Doesn't matter, cheap is all that matters to Clinton. He feels reassured that the Phillies will remain solvent if the field cheap players. You know, Ryan Howard struck out too much and he couldn't field. Mietkeiwicz doesn't strike out and he is a gold glover. Besides he will work for $400,000 per year, you know, the Phillies maximum salary.
Well I hope Clinton enjoys himself. What is Ryan Howard doing? He's averaging 50 hrs. and 150 rbis a year for the Yankees as their DH, but you know he strikes out too much and he can't field.
What is Mientkiewicz doing? Well he is hitting .239 and has 4 hrs and 37 rbis. But he doesn't strike out, is a flawless fielder, he will work for, you know, the Phillies maximum salary and also he isn't (black).
So black guys who hit 50 hrs and knock in 150 rbi's aren't needed because they strike out too much and they can't field?
Yes, you know Jim Thome used to play shortstop. In fact he was 5' 8" and 175 lbs before he started playing 1st base.
The hell you say, Thome is 6'4" and 230 lbs and played 3rd base in the minors and the first couple of years in the bigs. He lacked the athleticism to play 3rd base so they moved him to first.
Yes, but you know, well he isn't (black).
But Jim Thome is seventh on the all time list of major leaguers striking out and he couldn't field a lick.
Yes, but according to Clinton, he's a better athlete, and you know, he isn't (black).
But when Thome was 32 years old the Phillies signed him to a 7 year, $98 million contract. That's an average of $14 million a year. Ryan Howard never made that much money.
Yes, but according to Clinton, Thome was more athletic when he was 32 than Howard was when he was 28. And you know, Thome isn't (black).
Well I'm glad that Clinton has straightened us out on his baseball knowledge.
Posted by JoseC | February 23, 2008 12:21 AM
Posted on February 23, 2008 00:21
I believe the Phillies have a bargain at first base. Consider this, hadn't they traded Jim Thome, this year they would have paid far in excess of $ 10 000 000 for probably half the production of Howard. Furthermore, they saved millions of dollars the last couple of years, while the production was much higher than the Phillies would have gotten from Thome.
Posted by pieter verdouw | February 23, 2008 5:05 AM
Posted on February 23, 2008 05:05
I think the Phillies will stick it to Howard by batting Burrell fourth and Howard fifth to break up the big three. Utley,Burrell,then Howard may be the new batting order of the 3,4,5 hitters for the Phillies this year.
Posted by rm | February 23, 2008 6:37 AM
Posted on February 23, 2008 06:37