Here's the editorial running in Tuesday's (4/3) paper on the new electronic market on the mayor's race that starts this week:
If you think you’ve got this crazy Philadelphia mayor’s election figured out, here’s a chance to prove it.
The Great Expectations project, co-sponsored by The Inquirer and the University of Pennsylvania, has arranged for an “electronic predictions market” to be run on the mayor’s race.
In the market, traders can buy or sell contracts that embody predictions on the mayor’s race.
There are two markets, actually: one a “winner-take-all” market based on predictions on who will win the May 15 Democratic primay, the other based on the vote percentages each candidate will get.
The market is run as a research project by the Iowa Electronic Markets, a program of the University of Iowa’s business school. The IEM frequently runs prediction markets on political contests, and they have proven to be a bit more accurate than traditional political polls.
The opening stake in the market is only $5, and the Great Expectations project is underwriting that stake for the first 200 people to sign up.
You can sign up by going to the project Web site, http://go.philly.com/greatexpectations and clicking on the Electronic Market link. That will take you to an IEM registration screen, and then to full explanation of how to take part.
Watch the editorial page, the project Web site and Philly.com for updates on how the trading is trending, once it begins
For a more detailed discussion of electronic markets, how they work and why they're cool, see my column from Sunday's paper at http://go.philly.com/satullo.
-- Chris Satullo
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