Better Nutter numbers. I dare you to say that quickly three times.
But that's the most accurate headline off today's (Wed., May 9) Keystone Poll.
The poll, done by Terry Madonna & Co. at Franklin and Marshall College, shows Michael Nutter surging into the lead in the Democratic race for mayor.
Nutter was third in the last Madonna poll. Today, he is first, getting 31% of the vote of the 385 Democrats polled. Tom Knox (No. 1 in the last month's poll) is at 21%. Chaka Fattah (the leader in earlier polls) has slipped to No. 3, at 14%. Bob Brady (11%) and Dwight Evans (3%) complete the field.
Let me give my usual caveat: it's best not to concentrate on the numbers, which are fluid and tend to be imprecise, but on the trends they reveal. Here is what I read from the poll:
One. There is still volatility among voters. They may be favoring Nutter, but they have yet to close the deal with him. A number of Democrats (21%) said they are undecided. Of those who did pick a favorite, 41% said they could change their minds. When you add in the statistical margin of error in this poll (plus/minus 5%) and the undecideds, you have a race that could be considered a toss up on Election Day, when any candidate could add 4 or 5 points to their total with a strong field operation.
Two. At long last, people are beginning to focus on this race. It apparently was a blur to many voters for a long while, mostly caused by the size of the field. But, as they have focused, and as they are making judgements about the candidates, Nutter is clearly the beneficiary. You can credit his message (anti-Street & pro-reform) or you can credit his impressive record in City Council or you can credit the timing of his TV campaign (no early ads, but marshalling his money until the end). Whatever the reason, he is picking up support -- especially among black voters. He has always been strong among whites.
Three. As part of that new voter focus, there are clear losers. Obviously, Evans is the biggest. He seems to be sinking out of sight. Another is Brady. The party chair and power broker appears out of sync with the voters' mood. Less obviously, but importantly, Knox appears to have stalled. When he was alone on the airways, people flocked to him. Now that he is sharing the stage with other candidates he is not standing up as well.
Four. You didn't need a poll to tell you the architecture of the race had changed. All you had to do was listen to the candidates in their public debates. The focus had clearly changed from knocking Knox to stopping Nutter's rise. The campaigns' internal polls probably revealed the Nutter trend a week to 10 days ago. It explains the mailer I got the other day from the Knox campaign -- slamming Nutter. It explains Fattah's Oreo remark at Monday's televised debate.
Nutter's opponents have five days to make those attacks stick.
Otherwise, given the trends, say hello to Mayor Nutter.
-- Tom Ferrick
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