Today's Daily News cover story drives home the point that Republican mayoral nominee Al Taubenberger has, shall we say, a snowball's chance of winning in the fall.
This observation falls under the "canine sinks chompers into human" category of news story.
The Republican may not have a chance to win in a Philadelphia mayoral race? Shocker.
But beneath the foregone conclusion of a Michael Nutter win, some interesting stories will play out.
It often happens that candidates far ahead in the polls do not deign to appear in debates or other forums with their competitors. Why share the spotlight?
I don't expect that to be the case this fall. I expect Michael Nutter to go out of his way to make joint appearances with Al Taubenberger, to embrace a full televised debate schedule, if one should be offered.
Here's why: Nutter is in an unusual position, with unusual promise and risk.
Not since Ed Rendell in 1995 has a Democrat been assured of victory and head the lead time to develop themes of governance, a team of deputies and an agenda for governing. The last time a newcomer to the office had such an opportunity? Perhaps Wilson Goode in 1983?
Nutter can lay a lot of groundwork between now and his inauguration in January - and that's mostly a benefit to him.
But a key question is how will he deal with the many people who will try to use the same time period to press their wishes and agenda items on him, looking for promises and commitments.
This is why the existence of Al Taubenberger could be a great boon to Nutter.
It could give him some breathing and thinking room.
The name of this site is Great Expectations, and that's a good phrase to describe both the reward and burden Nutter gets from his surprisingly resounding primary win. The good news for Nutter is that a lot of people feel personally uplifted and vindicated by his win. That's also problematic. Some people seem to believe (perhaps to an unreasonable degree) that his win signals an entirely new day in the city. What's more, many people feel a sense of personal participation in his win, that they played a role in his upset.
They feel, not that many of them would put it so bluntly, owed. Not, in the usual Philly sense of expecting jobs, favors or contracts in return for material support of a campaign. No, the folks I'm talking about are the advocates who raised the profile of certain issues - from zoning reform to environment to tax reform to campaign reform - that Nutter ended up riding to victory.
They expect Nutter to deliver swift and effective action on their altruistic wish lists. But he can't possibly do all that they want done, certainly not in the short time that will elapse before activists' patience normally runs out.
It is not the nature of advocates to notice how much legitimate competition their pet issue has for the time and the resources of government. It is not in their nature to say, "Well, we understand there are valid competing interests that might complicate the achievement of our agenda goals. We are willing to compromise; we are willing to wait in line."
In short: To govern well, Michael Nutter is going to have to disappoint a lot of people who supported him. He has to choose which priorities to attack first with the limited time and money at his disposal - and some of those priorities, such as violent crime and negotiating with city unions, will choose him, whether he likes it or not.
That's why the the fact that he's not mayor yet, that Al Taubenberger exists - not only exists, but is a smart, engaging citizen of the city with some things to say - helps Nutter. It enables him to say to all those people lining up to extract issue commitments from him, "Not yet. Not now. I'm not mayor yet."
The rituals of campaign politics also will provide him with well-covered forums this fall where he can begin the work of calibrating expectations. (That's why he'll be eager to invite Taubenberger, so the events aren't all about him. Right now, he needs a foil). This will give Nutter a chance to begin crafting a narrative about his mayoralty that promises real change, but is realistic about the scope and pace of change that the city should expect.
If he doesn't do that, if he lets the moment master him, instead of mastering the moment, that would be a mistake - and a bad sign.
-- Chris Satullo
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